Predict

Gustavo Bicalho

About this app

Remember the last time you said "I'm sure I'll have this done by tomorrow", and it wasn't done? And the time before it?

Or the time when you were absolutely sure you had packed everything you needed for the trip, just to find out later you'd forgot your towel?

Humans are overconfident: when someone tells you they are 90% sure, chances are they will get it right only 60% of the time.

But you can train against this. Weight your beliefs, think about your feelings, and log with Predict what you think is going to happen tonight. When you know the answer, swipe right or left. Then check your score!

Ratings and reviews

i dont understand a lot of it. what does the yellow bar mean? what does perfect claibration mean? how are score counted? etc etc there is no clear documentation and its confusing me. i might just uninstall it if i cant understand it and there is no help.

Excellent, very helpful

Just installed this and pretty excited about it. I like this form of calibration much better than trivia! It's a little unintuitive that I can only assign 50%+ credences so that I have to phrase some things negatively (e.g. probability of X not happening = 80%) even if not-X is a collection of other events. But maybe my current intuition is not the best to have!