Richard Arms, Analyst, Author, and Inventor of The Arms Index
“This is one of the best new investing books of the decade: succinct, practical, and timeless. Built on a foundation of 40 years of market wisdom, it combines technical analysis and portfolio construction that is supported by excellent research. It should be required reading for everyone from new investors to the most sophisticated hedge fund managers.”
Linda Raschke, President, LBRGroup, Inc.
“The author is an award winning Technical Analyst. In this book, he covers the basic principles, definitions, safeguards, pitfalls, and risks of investing. Believing in active management, he recognizes the benefits of multiple tools (fundamental and technical) and disciplines there-on, to construct a portfolio methodology with guidelines for both buying and selling, for maximum gain. This is a valuable book for any serious investor.”
Louise Yamada, Managing Director, Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors, LLC.
“In this book, Charles Kirkpatrick demonstrates just how powerful a tool relative strength is, deftly combining technical and fundamental analysis to produce a superior long-term approach. This isn’t just theory, but the real-time work of a practitioner with an outstanding track record. For many years a small group of knowledgeable investors has known about this work, now you can too.”
John Bollinger, CFA, CMT, President, Bollinger Capital Management
“The author presents a clearly written, time-tested formula for investor independence and success through applying relative price strength for stock selection and portfolio construction.”
Hank Pruden, Golden Gate University
Over the past 25 years, Charles D. Kirkpatrick’s exclusive stock-picking technique has outperformed the S&P 500’s performance by a whopping 7.7 times. That’s right: If you’d invested $10,000 in the S&P 500, you’d have $130,000 now...but if you’d followed Kirkpatrick’s published picks, you’d have $1,000,000! If that’s not amazing enough, Kirkpatrick’s system is remarkably easy to use. In this book, he teaches you all you need to put it to work in your portfolio!
Kirkpatrick reveals why an active strategy based on relative stock rankings is the surest route to profit, and how just a few pieces of publicly available information enable you to create rankings that virtually guarantee exceptional performance. You’ll learn how to use his techniques to organize stocks into a portfolio that maximizes returns while reducing risk...uncover trigger points that tell you when to buy and sell...and systematically protect yourself against bad stocks and bad markets.
Why the conventional wisdom about investing is flat-out wrong
What’s wrong with diversification, “random walks,” and the efficient markets hypothesis Don’t even try to predict the markets: you don’t have to!
Discover what the markets are actually doing: then react fast, with discipline Invest the intelligent way: with “relatives”
Measure what really matters: a stock’s relative strength and growth compared with the rest Start using the market’s reliable investment triggers
Recognize what to buy, what to sell, and when to make your moves Mitigate the risks associated with broad market declines
Intelligently decide when to move assets into cash
What to do, how and when to do it, and why Specific advice backed by modern statistical tests that identify consistently successful combinations of indicators Techniques for identifying early weaknesses, maximizing gains, and protecting capital By Charles D. Kirkpatrick II, the world’s most influential technical analyst
There’s only one way to successfully compete with Wall Street’s “big boys”: use algorithmic systems, just like they do. Fortunately, you can. Thanks to the wide availability of derivatives, cheap computing, and low-cost, high-speed trading platforms, you can run algorithmic systems that are proven statistically and can operate almost automatically.
In this book, world-renowned technical analysis expert Charles D. Kirkpatrick II presents these systems and the evidence that supports them. Building on exhaustive research, Kirkpatrick shows why relative strength systems deliver consistent profits. Next, he drills down to identify the optimal elements of such systems, including lookback periods, ranks/ratios for portfolio changes, minimum trading volumes, and techniques for limiting the impact of market declines.
Kirkpatrick’s final results are practical and robust. Based on easy-to-interpret ADX, forward line, and 3-bar reversal charts, they are easy enough for virtually any investor to use, with any size portfolio.
At its foundation, technical analysis involves recognizing and analyzing trends and identifying the best investment strategy to take advantage of them. Most traders and investors who look for trends do so by analyzing a long list of charts on a continuing basis. In Kirkpatrick's Investment and Trading Strategies, world-renowned technical analysis researcher Charles D. Kirkpatrick II presents tested, pinpoint approaches to stock investing that are far more effective and efficient.
Drawing on statistical testing of markets from 1990 to the present, Kirkpatrick identifies combinations of technical tests that have consistently delivered the best performance. Using them, he shows how to identify stocks that are now demonstrating the strongest relative and absolute strength. Next, he identifies specific trend following indicators most likely to identify the first signs of trend reversals--and, thus, the right time to sell.
Throughout, Kirkpatrick offers detailed, practical, and example-rich guidance for using these indicators, providing all the detail you need to implement an investment strategy that is both profitable and risk-averse.
Tested, trend-based indicators you can understand and rely on
Choose the right stocks--and the right times to buy and sell them Protect your capital with DMI, ADX, and other key technical indicators
Discover your true risk of loss and systematically protect against it Why Kirkpatrick’s relative strength system works so well
Understand the statistics behind the system--in as much detail as you’d like Using the system after you’ve implemented it
Realistic examples and step-by-step instructions
How technical analysts understand trends and translate those insights into market profits.
Technical analysis is based on one major assumption: trend. Markets trend. Traders and investors hope to buy a security at the beginning of an uptrend at a low price, ride the trend, and sell the security when the trend ends at a high price. Although this strategy sounds very simple, implementing it is exceedingly complex. For example....
Relative strength is a method of selecting favorable stocks, based on the observation that stocks tend to travel in price trends: upward, downward, or sideways. This predilection is often called “momentum.” The concept of investing with trends is counterintuitive to most investors. It suggests that, rather than looking for bargains, the investor should look for stocks that are rising and already trading at high valuations....
Do price cycles come in waves? An objective look at the evidence–and what it means to investors.
Trends don’t occur in a straight line. Prices oscillate up and down around a trend. These oscillations form trading ranges, patterns, and channels. Could these oscillations have some sort of regularity? Believing they do, cycle analysts look at prices as a form of complex harmonics or “waves.” Not surprisingly, the concept of prices oscillating in cycles is controversial...
Drawing on many years of publicly available data, Kirkpatrick demonstrates how to uncover powerful buy and sell signals and shows how to incorporate corporate, industry, monetary, sentiment, and market data into reliable timing indicators that can help you recognize impending stock and bond market dangers—and get out of the way.
Relying primarily on proven technical analysis methods, Kirkpatrick incorporates trading system methods that have proven successful in market timing, including trend and momentum analysis, use of protective and trailing stops, and periodicity. Reflecting the latest insights into behavioral finance, he shares important new insight into measuring marketplace momentum and sentiment—helping long-term investors identify and evade the marketplace irrationalities that often cause capital loss.
Selected by the Market Technicians Association as the official companion to its prestigious Chartered Market Technician (CMT) program, Technical Analysis, Third Edition systematically explains the theory of technical analysis, presenting academic evidence both for and against it. Using hundreds of fully updated illustrations and examples, the authors explain the analysis of both markets and individual issues, and present complete investment systems and portfolio management plans. They present authoritative, up-to-date coverage of tested sentiment, momentum indicators, seasonal effects, flow of funds, testing systems, risk mitigation strategies, and many other topics.
Offering 30% new coverage, Technical Analysis, Third Edition thoroughly addresses recent advances in pattern recognition, market analysis, systems management, and confidence testing; Kagi, Renko, Kase, Ichimoku, Clouds, and DeMark indicators; innovations in exit stops, portfolio selection, and testing; implications of behavioral bias, and the recent performance of old formulas and methods. For traders, researchers, and serious investors alike, this is the definitive guide to profiting from technical analysis.
This Element is an excerpt from Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource for Financial Market Technicians, Second Edition (9780137059447) by Charles D. Kirkpatrick and Julie Dahlquist. Available in print and digital formats.
Where technical analysis works–and where it doesn’t.
For an investor to use technical analysis in a market, easy access, fungibility, sufficient liquidity, and continuous trading must characterize the market. Although there are many freely traded markets in the world in which technical analysis is used, the most common is the U.S. stock market…