After the Roaring '20s came the Great Depression. After the Roaring 2000s came the Great Recession.

We're now entering the winter season of the 80-Year Four Season Economic Cycle. It's during this season that we'll clear the decks with a devastating crash and debilitating deflation. The economy and markets will shed the excesses created during the preceding fall bubble boom season and prepare the soil for new blossoming in innovation and a spring boom.

After the blustering bull market of 2009-2015, we are now preparing for a shakeout more painful than anything we've seen before. We have eight years of unprecedented government stimulus and money creation to thank for stretching this bubble beyond imagination and making the burst more painful than anything we've ever experienced.

There's no better guide to financial cycles than Harry S. Dent Jr., the bestselling author of The Demographic Cliff and many other books, and the editor of the Boom & Bust newsletter. For more than 30 years he has earned a reputation for eerily accurate predictions about the world economy and the financial markets.

Now Dent has an urgent new warning about the next crisis. The consequences will be devastating--but there's a bright side that he's calling "the sale of a lifetime." For anyone who heeds the signs and follows Dent's advice, the looming correction is a once-in-a-century opportunity to gather immense wealth.

In this pressing book, you'll learn not only why a collapse is imminent, but how to identify bubbles and tune in to the cycles driving that drive booms and busts.

Practical, accessible, and illuminating, The Sale of a Lifetime will protect you from the tough challenges ahead and help you cash in on the unique opportunities of the next few years. At stake is nothing less than your entire financial future.
Bestselling author and financial guru Harry Dent shows why we’re facing a “great deflation” after five years of desperate stimulus — and what to do about it now


Throughout his long career as an economic forecaster, Harry Dent has relied on a not-so-secret weapon: demographics. Studying the predictable things people do as they age is the ultimate tool for understanding trends. For instance, Dent can tell a client exactly when people will spend the most on potato chips. And he can explain why our economy has risen and fallen with the peak spending of generations, and why we now face a growing demographic cliff with the accelerating retirement of the Baby Boomers around the world.


Dent predicted the impact of the Boomers hitting their highest growth in spending in the 1990s, when most economists saw the United States declining. And he anticipated the decline of Japan in the 1990s, when economists were proclaiming it would overtake the U.S. economy.


But now, Dent argues, the fundamental demographics have turned against the United States and will hit more countries ahead. Inflation rises when a larger than usual block of younger people enter the workforce, and it wanes when large numbers of older people retire, downsize their homes, and cut their spending. The mass retirement of the Boomers won’t just hold back inflation; it and massive debt deleveraging will actually cause deflation—weakening the economy the most from 2014 into 2019.


Dent explores the implications of his controversial predictions. He offers advice on retirement planning, health care, real estate, education, investing, and business strategies. For instance . . .

BUSINESSES should get lean and mean now. Identify segments that you can clearly dominate and sell off or shut down others. If you don’t, the economy will do it for you, more painfully and less profitably.INVESTORS should sell stocks by mid-January 2014 and look to buy them back in 2015 or later at a Dow as low as 5,800.FAMILIES should wait to buy real estate in areas where home prices have gone back to where the bubble started in early 2000.GOVERNMENTS need to stop the endless stimulus that creates more bubbles and kills the middle class, and should assist in restructuring the unprecedented debt bubble of 1983–2008.

Dent shows that if you take the time to understand demographic data, using it to your advantage isn’t all that difficult. By following his suggestions, readers will be able to find the upside to the downturn and learn how to survive and prosper during the most challenging years ahead.

Harry S. Dent Jr., bestselling author of The Demographic Cliff and The Sale of a Lifetime, predicted the populist wave that has driven the Brexit vote, the election of Donald Trump, and other recent shocks around the world. Now he returns with the definitive guide to protect your investments and prosper in the age of the anti-globalist backlash.

The turn of the 2020s will mark an extremely rare convergence of low points for multiple political, economic, and demographic cycles. The result will be a major financial crash and global upheaval that will dwarf the Great Recession of the 2000s—and maybe even the Great Depression of the 1930s. We’re facing the onset of what Dent calls “Economic Winter.”
 
In Zero Hour, he and Andrew Pancholi (author of The Market Timing Report newsletter) explain all of these cycles, which influence everything from currency valuations to election returns, from economic growth rates in Asia to birthrates in Europe. You’ll learn, for instance:

   • Why the most-hyped technologies of recent years (self-driving cars, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, blockchain) won’t pay off until the 2030s.
   • Why China may be the biggest bubble in the global economy (and you’d be a fool to invest there).
   • Why you should invest in the healthcare and pharmaceutical industries, and pull out of real estate and automotive.
   • Why putting your faith in gold is a bad idea.
 
Fortunately, Zero Hour includes a range of practical strategies to help you turn the upheaval ahead to your advantage, so your family can be prepared and protected.
提前布局,趁勢搶賺這輩子最好的投資機會!


每次發生股市崩盤或經濟危機後,專家們都會把它稱為「黑天鵝事件」,意指罕見、無可預測又影響深遠。作者認為,專家們會這麼說,是因為他們根本不知道發生了什麼事。大崩盤與大蕭條的確罕見,但並非完全不可預測。根據作者的研究,史上最嚴重的大衰退將在2017年年底爆發,於2020年至2022年觸底。


然而景氣最差時,卻也是逢低布局之際,投資市場的大師與行家都正緊盯這「一輩子只有一次」的投資良機!作者在本書中明示,當風暴漸歇、景氣落至谷底時,下列投資標的擁有無窮商機:


▍新興市場首選印度

印度的城市化比率還僅有33%,未來至少還有50年會致力提升越過80%的門檻,多數新興市場的城市化進程都會伴隨人均GDP直線成長,這方面印度正循中國過去的成功之路前進。


印度還有結構良好、穩定的龐大人口,其勞動力才剛開始擴張,人口成長趨勢約莫還有45年可期。同時,原物料商品出口僅占印度出口總額的35%,原物料週期走壞對印度的衝擊相對較小。


▍聚焦醫美、生技產業

隨著嬰兒潮世代年歲增長,他們會帶動無數商機,這些領域包括:非急需的醫療保健產品,好比整形手術,以及抗衰老產品,像是維生素、化妝品和抗皺乳霜等任何能幫助嬰兒潮世代消費者盡可能長時間抗拒老化的產品。


▍關注郵輪與部分房地產市場

在下一次房地產崩盤後,度假╱退休住宅和護理╱支援性居家服務的房地產市場,非常值得密切注意。因為度假╱退休住宅支出大約在65歲時到達高峰,而對銀髮族而言,經歷20年跟小孩一起旅行的壓力後,誰不想登上浮動的豪華旅館兼賭場輕鬆一下,享受美食和美酒?


我們正目睹現代歷史上影響範圍最廣、規模最大的泡沫,也將深受泡沫破裂所苦,而本書的目的就是要保護你避開即將出現的金融大屠殺,讓你不僅能倖存,還能趁勢致富翻身。


避開黑天鵝最好的方法,就是張大眼睛看清牠、做好準備,然後順勢大賺一筆!


【國內專家推薦】


孫慶龍╱「投資家日報」總監

郭恭克╱獵豹財務長

黃世聰╱財經專家

雷浩斯╱價值投資者、財經作家

盧燕俐╱理財專家


【國際讚譽】


喬治.歐文(Greg Owen)╱澳洲雪黎GOKO Management執行長、「保障未來」活動創辦人暨推動者?




出版社 商周出版 (城邦)

Harry S. Dent Jr., bestselling author of The Demographic Cliff and The Sale of a Lifetime, predicted the populist wave that has driven the Brexit vote, the election of Donald Trump, and other recent shocks around the world. Now he returns with the definitive guide to protect your investments and prosper in the age of the anti-globalist backlash.

The turn of the 2020s will mark an extremely rare convergence of low points for multiple political, economic, and demographic cycles. The result will be a major financial crash and global upheaval that will dwarf the Great Recession of the 2000s—and maybe even the Great Depression of the 1930s. We’re facing the onset of what Dent calls “Economic Winter.”
 
In Zero Hour, he and Andrew Pancholi (author of The Market Timing Report newsletter) explain all of these cycles, which influence everything from currency valuations to election returns, from economic growth rates in Asia to birthrates in Europe. You’ll learn, for instance:

   • Why the most-hyped technologies of recent years (self-driving cars, artificial intelligence, virtual reality, blockchain) won’t pay off until the 2030s.
   • Why China may be the biggest bubble in the global economy (and you’d be a fool to invest there).
   • Why you should invest in the healthcare and pharmaceutical industries, and pull out of real estate and automotive.
   • Why putting your faith in gold is a bad idea.
 
Fortunately, Zero Hour includes a range of practical strategies to help you turn the upheaval ahead to your advantage, so your family can be prepared and protected.
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