Preparing for Sudden Change in North Koreafocuses on how to manage one of the most central unknowns: the prospect of change in North Korea's leadership. Paul B. Stares and Joel S. Wit outline three scenarios of succession —managed, contested, and failed —and offer policy recommendations for dealing with potentially fractious leadership change.Stares and Wit consider the challenges that these scenarios would pose to domestic institutions and regional security, the proliferation of nuclear arms, jumpstarting the economy, and providing humanitarian assistance.
Paul B. Stares proposes an innovative and timely strategy—“preventive engagement”—to resolve America’s predicament. This approach entails pursuing three complementary courses of action: promoting policies known to lessen the risk of violent conflict over the long term; anticipating and averting those crises likely to lead to costly military commitments in the medium term; and managing ongoing conflicts in the short term before they escalate further and exert pressure on the United States to intervene. In each of these efforts, forging “preventive partnerships” with a variety of international actors, including the United Nations, regional organizations, nongovernmental organizations, and the business community, is essential. The need to think and act ahead that lies at the heart of a preventive engagement strategy requires the United States to become less shortsighted and reactive. Drawing on successful strategies in other areas, Preventive Engagement provides a detailed and comprehensive blueprint for the United States to shape the future and reduce the potential dangers ahead.
Enhancing U.S. Preventive Action provides an actionable road map for how the U.S. government should revamp its existing prevention architecture to make it more effective in dealing with potential crises abroad. Paul B. Stares and Micah Zenko analyze the shortcomings of the prevention capacities within the U.S. government. They provide concrete recommendations for creating new interagency coordinating mechanisms within the National Security Council, improving the delivery of useful and timely early warning mechanisms to policymakers, and strengthening the unique institutional capabilities within the U.S. Agency for International Development and the State Department.
These momentous events have taken place so rapidly and often in such confused circumstances that their full meaning has barely been comprehended let alone assimilated. A clearer and deeper appreciation of the forces and processes unleashed by the recent changes is vitally important, however, to meet the challenges and exploit the opportunities that now present themselves in Europe. This volume, therefore, is intended to promote wider understanding of the key issues, and it represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of the new Germany and the new Europe.
The volume begins with detailed accounts by U.S. and German scholars of how unification came about and the resulting changes to the political economy, security policy, and foreign relations. A complementary section discusses the implications for the rest of Europe as well as Japan. While the focus of the book is on the new Germany, two separate chapters provide specific designs for a new adoption of a general system of cooperative security.