The central Asia region (also termed the Silk Road region) as an emerging destination is ripe for future tourism development. The region is rich with historical, cultural, and natural beauty that could provide significant utility to many potential visitors. This book brings together key writings on this topic in a single resource.
In Current Issues and Development in Hospitality and Tourism Satisfaction, experts from the field explore customer satisfaction strategies, examining both the long-term and short-term results. This vital tool shows you new and effective approaches for understanding customer satisfaction and providing quality service at all levels of the hospitality and tourism industry. Hospitality and tourism faculty and students as well as professionals will find this book useful for improving and providing quality service management.
This book illustrates the complex relationship between customer and service provider, offering practical advice and techniques for maximizing consumer contentment. Current Issues and Development in Hospitality and Tourism Satisfaction contains models for meeting—and even surpassing—consumer expectations to increase the value of the customer’s experience. This essential resource includes various methods for managers to anticipate consumer needs and perceptions, reducing dissatisfaction.
This book helps you: incorporate existing and alternative measurements of satisfaction measure and improve service quality create and maintain social interaction linkages between staff and customer identify the destination performance of your hotel and other destinations or attractions evaluate consumer satisfaction with lodging services increase cross-cultural service satisfaction and much more! Tables and figures throughout the text help demonstrate the strategies, and bibliographies at the end of each chapter offer further reading. While there are other books that focus on customer satisfaction, Current Issues and Development in Hospitality and Tourism Satisfaction is rare in that it covers satisfaction issues as they apply to both hospitality and tourism.
Tourist Customer Service Satisfaction fully explores this relationship by defining the specific kind of verbal and non-verbal messages needed for successful exchanges, outlining how the service provider ought to behave & cope in a situation as well as detailing positive approaches that enhance a service provider’s role performance. The book uses encounter theory to examine the customer – provider relationship as well as drawing on current research and theories from hospitality, tourism, management, psychology bodies of literature. In doing so the book offers important insight into how employee – centric competitive advantage in this sector can be achieved in various markets.
This book is unique in its approach by focusing on the specifics of the social exchange and interaction between the service provider and customer. It therefore offers a novel synthesis of knowledge on service satisfaction in the tourism sector which will serve as valuable pedagogical and research reference for students and academics interested in hospitality and tourism.
“Long live the King” hailed Entertainment Weekly upon publication of Stephen King’s On Writing. Part memoir, part master class by one of the bestselling authors of all time, this superb volume is a revealing and practical view of the writer’s craft, comprising the basic tools of the trade every writer must have. King’s advice is grounded in his vivid memories from childhood through his emergence as a writer, from his struggling early career to his widely reported, near-fatal accident in 1999—and how the inextricable link between writing and living spurred his recovery. Brilliantly structured, friendly and inspiring, On Writing will empower and entertain everyone who reads it—fans, writers, and anyone who loves a great story well told.
In this completely revised and updated second edition, Renni Browne and Dave King teach you, the writer, how to apply the editing techniques they have developed to your own work. Chapters on dialogue, exposition, point of view, interior monologue, and other techniques take you through the same processes an expert editor would go through to perfect your manuscript. Each point is illustrated with examples, many drawn from the hundreds of books Browne and King have edited.
Enter Plot Versus Character. This hands-on guide to creating a well-rounded novel embraces both of these crucial story components. You'll learn to: Create layered characters by considering personality traits, natural attributes, and backgrounds Develop your character's emotional journey and tie it to your plot's inciting incident Construct a three-act story structure that can complement and sustain your character arc Expose character backstory in a manner that accentuates plot points Seamlessly intertwine plot and character to create a compelling page-turner filled with characters to whom readers can't help but relateAnd much more Filled with helpful examples and friendly instruction, Plot Versus Character takes the guesswork out of creating great fiction by giving you the tools you need to inject life into your characters and momentum into your plots.
In Make a Scene, author Jordan E. Rosenfeld takes you through the fundamentals of strong scene construction and explains how other essential fiction-writing techniques, such as character, plot, and dramatic tension, must function within the framework of individual scenes in order to provide substance and structure to the overall story. You'll learn how to: Craft an opening scene that hooks readers and foreshadows supporting scenes Develop various scene types - from the suspenseful to the dramatic to the contemplative - that are distinct and layered Tailor character and plot around specific scene types to better convey the nuances of your storyline Create resonating climactic and final scenes that stay with readers long after they've finished your work
Lajos Egri examines a play from the inside out, starting with the heart of any drama: its characters. For it is people -- their private natures and their inter-relationships -- that move a story and give it life. All good dramatic writing depends upon an understanding of human motives. Why do people act as they do? What forces transform a coward into a hero, a hero into a coward? What is it that Romeo does early in Shakespeare's play that makes his later suicide seem inevitable? Why must Nora leave her husband at the end of A Doll's House?
These are a few of the fascinating problems which Egri analyzes. He shows how it is essential for the author to have a basic premise -- a thesis, demonstrated in terms of human behavior -- and to develop his dramatic conflict on the basis of that behavior. Premise, character, conflict: this is Egri's ABC. His book is a direct, jargon-free approach to the problem of achieving truth in a literary creation.
The 2014 Writer's Market details thousands of publishing opportunities for writers, including listings for book publishers, consumer and trade magazines, contests and awards, and literary agents. These listings include contact and submission information to help writers get their work published.
Look inside and you'll find page after page of all-new editorial material devoted to the business of writing. You'll find advice on pitching agents and editors, setting up a freelance business, and promoting your writing. Plus, you'll learn how to earn a full-time income from blogging, write the six-figure nonfiction book proposal, and re-slant your writing to get more out of your freelancing efforts. This edition also includes the ever popular pay rate chart.
You also gain access to: Lists of professional writing organizations. Sample query letters.
In Hooked, author Les Edgerton draws on his experience as a successful fiction writer and teacher to help you overcome the weak openings that lead to instant rejection by showing you how to successfully use the ten core components inherent to any great beginning. You'll find: Detailed instruction on how to develop your inciting incident Keys for creating a cohesive story-worthy problem Tips on how to avoid common opening gaffes like overusing backstory A rundown on basics such as opening scene length and transitions A comprehensive analysis of more than twenty great opening lines from novels and short stories Plus, you'll discover exclusive insider advice from agents and acquiring editors on what they look for in a strong opening. With Hooked, you'll have all the information you need to craft a compelling beginning that lays the foundation for an irresistible story!
The vast majority of writers begin the storytelling process with only a partial understanding where to begin. Some labor their entire lives without ever learning that successful stories are as dependent upon good engineering as they are artistry. But the truth is, unless you are master of the form, function and criteria of successful storytelling, sitting down and pounding out a first draft without planning is an ineffective way to begin.
Story Engineering starts with the criteria and the architecture of storytelling, the engineering and design of a story--and uses it as the basis for narrative. The greatest potential of any story is found in the way six specific aspects of storytelling combine and empower each other on the page. When rendered artfully, they become a sum in excess of their parts.
You'll learn to wrap your head around the big pictures of storytelling at a professional level through a new approach that shows how to combine these six core competencies which include:Four elemental competencies of concept, character, theme, and story structure (plot)Two executional competencies of scene construction and writing voice
The true magic of storytelling happens when these six core competencies work together in perfect harmony. And the best part? Anyone can do it!
In You've Got a Book in You, Elizabeth is that encouraging voice guiding you through the entire process, from finding the right time and place to gathering all of your creative tools to diving right in and getting it done--page by page, step by step. It's easier than you think, and it all starts right here, right now.
"This guide is witty, warm, and wise--and wonderfully down-to-earth as well. Elizabeth Sims doesn't just tell you that you've got a book in you, she shows you how to pour it out using your own creative spirit, common sense, and persistence." ~Lori L. Lake, author of The Gun Series and The Public Eye Mystery Series
"If you're searching for the spark of inspiration to get started writing a book, and the nourishment to sustain you to THE END, Elizabeth Sims's You've Got a Book in You will show you how to find it in yourself." ~Hallie Ephron, award-winning author of There Was an Old Woman
"You won't find an easier-to-follow or more inspirational writing guide." ~L.J. Sellers, author of the bestselling Jackson mysteries
"By focusing the high beams of her intelligence (and humor!) on the twisty trail of book-writing, in You've Got a Book in You, Elizabeth Sims proves herself a true writer's friend. As she guides you from the creation of a "working title" through her (brilliant!) "Making-It-Better Process," this well-established pro plays her most impressive cards--stacking the deck in favor of YOU!" ~Jamie Morris, Director, Woodstream Writers
"Elizabeth Sims packs a twelve-week writing course into 280 pages. Inspirational and yet extremely hands-on, You've Got a Book In You will give newbies confidence to forge ahead and will remind veteran writers why they began writing in the first place--for the joy of it. I won't be surprised when the brilliant terms 'stormwriting' and 'heartbrain' become part of every writer's lexicon." ~Julie Compton, author of Tell No Lies and Keep No Secrets
"The book is encouraging and inspiring, practical and witty. As a seasoned writer, I appreciate the reminders about the importance of putting yourself on a writing schedule. No more excuses. The many 'writing blasts' are very helpful and will get any writer out of the starting blocks. I especially enjoyed the section, 'Writing with the Masters.' What better way to get inspired, get a feel for different styles, and get jump-started on your writing? Excellent advice that I plan to incorporate in my future classes.
I concur with Sims that 'writer's block' is greatly exaggerated. Is there any other profession that claims such a phenomenon? 'Excuse, me, but I have 'book-keeping block,' 'playing music block,' or 'painting block' today? I don't think so. Get yourself on a schedule, read some Sims, write with the masters, and you'll be on your way. You'll be glad you met this friend on your journey to becoming a successful writer." ~Gesa Kirsch, Ph.D., Professor of English, Director of Valente Center for the Arts and Sciences, Bentley University
Maybe you're a first-time novelist looking for practical guidance. Maybe you've already been published, but your latest effort is stuck in mid-list limbo. Whatever the case may be, author and literary agent Donald Maass can show you how to take your prose to the next level and write a breakout novel - one that rises out of obscurity and hits the best-seller lists.
Maass details the elements that all breakout novels share - regardless of genre - then shows you writing techniques that can make your own books stand out and succeed in a crowded marketplace.
You'll learn to: establish a powerful and sweeping sense of time and place weave subplots into the main action for a complex, engrossing story create larger-than-life characters that step right off the page explore universal themes that will interest a broad audience of readers sustain a high degree of narrative tension from start to finish develop an inspired premise that sets your novel apart from the competition Then, using examples from the recent works of several best-selling authors - including novelist Anne Perry - Maass illustrates methods for upping the ante in every aspect of your novel writing. You'll capture the eye of an agent, generate publisher interest and lay the foundation for a promising career.
Inside you'll find: Basic information on how to set up your blog and the essential plug-ins and other options necessary to get the most out of each post Steps for writing a book easily from scratch using blog posts Advice on how to write blog posts Tips on gaining visibility and promoting your work both online and off Tools for driving traffic to your blog Information on how to monetize an existing blog into a book or other types of productsProfiles with authors who received blog-to-book deals Author Nina Amir explains how writing a book in cyberspace allows you to get your book written easily, while promoting it and building an author's platform. It's a fun, effective way to start writing, publishing, and promoting a book, one post at a time.
Language is mankind's greatest invention-except, of course, that it was never invented." So begins linguist Guy Deutscher's enthralling investigation into the genesis and evolution of language. If we started off with rudimentary utterances on the level of "man throw spear," how did we end up with sophisticated grammars, enormous vocabularies, and intricately nuanced degrees of meaning?
Drawing on recent groundbreaking discoveries in modern linguistics, Deutscher exposes the elusive forces of creation at work in human communication, giving us fresh insight into how language emerges, evolves, and decays. He traces the evolution of linguistic complexity from an early "Me Tarzan" stage to such elaborate single-word constructions as the Turkish sehirlilestiremediklerimizdensiniz ("you are one of those whom we couldn't turn into a town dweller"). Arguing that destruction and creation in language are intimately entwined, Deutscher shows how these processes are continuously in operation, generating new words, new structures, and new meanings.
As entertaining as it is erudite, The Unfolding of Language moves nimbly from ancient Babylonian to American idiom, from the central role of metaphor to the staggering triumph of design that is the Semitic verb, to tell the dramatic story and explain the genius behind a uniquely human faculty.
How to Write a Book Proposal is THE resource for getting your work published. This newly revised edition of the Writer's Digest Books classic outlines how to create an effective, nonfiction book proposal in a clear, step-by-step manner. You'll learn the keys to a successful book proposal and how to: Test-market the potential of a book idea and effectively communicate that potential in a proposal Choose the best agents and editors for a particular proposal Create a professional-looking proposal package Predispose publishers to make their best offer Notes agent and author Michael Larsen also provides insider insights into the publishing industry as well as a plethora of newly updated information including: Recent changes in the publishing industry Updated trend information New sample proposals Expanded instructions for creating outlines You'll also find complete guidelines to becoming an effective self-promoter. How to Write a Book Proposal is a must-have for every writer!
Whether you're a commercial storyteller or a literary novelist, whether your goal is to write a best-selling novel or captivate readers with a satisfying, beautifully written story, the key to success is the same: high-impact fiction. Writing 21st Century Fiction will help you write a novel for today's readers and market, filled with rich characters, compelling plots, and resonant themes. Author and literary agent Donald Maass shows you how to: Create fiction that transcends genre, conjures characters who look and feel more "real" than real people, and shows readers the work around them in new ways. Infuse every page with an electric current of emotional appeal and micro-tension. Harness the power of parallels, symbols, metaphors, and more to illuminate your novel in a lasting way. Develop a personalized method of writing that works for you. With an arsenal of thought-provoking prompts and questions, plus plenty of examples from best-selling titles, Writing 21st Century Fiction will strip away your preconceived notions about writing in today's world and give you the essential tools you need to create fiction that will leave both readers and critics in awe.
To know some Shakespeare provides a head start in life. His plays are among the great bedrocks of Western civilization and contain the finest writing of the past 450 years. Many of the best novels, plays, poems, and films in the English language produced since Shakespeare’s death in 1616—from Pride and Prejudice to The Godfather—are heavily influenced by Shakespeare’s stories, characters, language, and themes. In How to Teach Your Children Shakespeare, acclaimed playwright Ken Ludwig provides the tools you need to inspire an understanding, and a love, of Shakespeare’s works in your children, and to have fun together along the way.
Ken Ludwig devised his friendly, easy-to-master methods while teaching his own children. Beginning with memorizing short passages from the plays, his technique then instills children with cultural references they will utilize for years to come. Ludwig’s approach includes understanding of the time period and implications of Shakespeare’s diction as well as the invaluable lessons behind his words and stories. Colorfully incorporating the history of Shakespearean theater and society, How to Teach Your Children Shakespeare guides readers on an informed and adventurous journey through the world in which the Bard wrote.
This book’s simple process allows anyone to impart to children the wisdom of plays like A Midsummer Night’s Dream, Twelfth Night, Macbeth, and Romeo and Juliet. And there’s fun to be had throughout. Shakespeare novices and experts and readers of all ages will each find something delightfully irresistible in How to Teach Your Children Shakespeare.
- A comprehensive book that will have you speaking Arabic with confidence in no time as it includes:
- 15 step-by-step lessons
- Practical vocabulary and authentic everyday usage
- Simple explanations and plenty of examples
- Supplemental sections, including e-mail and internet resources
- A comprehensive grammar reference section
- A simple and effective guide teaches you everything you need to know to read and write Arabic. There are simple step-by-step explanations, plenty of practice reading exercises. No previous knowledge of Arabic is assumed.
- The book teaches the basics of Modern Standard Arabic using a simple and effective building-block method which is proven, simple, solid and reliable, as it has been successful for few years!
- The book includes everything you need - Vocabulary, grammar, culture, and practice, and English - Arabic - English dictionary.
In today's world of blogging, websites, Twitter feeds, and Facebook updates, building a writer platform from the ground up can seem a daunting task. Never fear--author and editor Chuck Sambuchino provides expert, practical advice for increasing your visibility, selling more books, and launching a successful career. In Create Your Writer Platform, you'll learn: The definition of a platform--and why you should start building one now. How to harness the 12 Fundamental Principles of Platform. "Old School" and "New School" approaches to platform, from article writing and conference speaking to website development, blog posts, and social media avenues. How to develop a platform for nonfiction, fiction, and memoir. In addition to Chuck's invaluable insights, you'll also find 12 case studies from authors with effective platforms, as well as professional advice from literary agents. If you're serious about building a platform tailored to you and your writing--a platform that's going to help you succeed as a writer--look no further than Create Your Writer Platform.
Now, with Think Like a Freak, Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner have written their most revolutionary book yet. With their trademark blend of captivating storytelling and unconventional analysis, they take us inside their thought process and teach us all to think a bit more productively, more creatively, more rationally—to think, that is, like a Freak.
Levitt and Dubner offer a blueprint for an entirely new way to solve problems, whether your interest lies in minor lifehacks or major global reforms. As always, no topic is off-limits. They range from business to philanthropy to sports to politics, all with the goal of retraining your brain. Along the way, you’ll learn the secrets of a Japanese hot-dog-eating champion, the reason an Australian doctor swallowed a batch of dangerous bacteria, and why Nigerian e-mail scammers make a point of saying they’re from Nigeria.
Some of the steps toward thinking like a Freak:First, put away your moral compass—because it’s hard to see a problem clearly if you’ve already decided what to do about it. Learn to say “I don’t know”—for until you can admit what you don’t yet know, it’s virtually impossible to learn what you need to. Think like a child—because you’ll come up with better ideas and ask better questions. Take a master class in incentives—because for better or worse, incentives rule our world. Learn to persuade people who don’t want to be persuaded—because being right is rarely enough to carry the day. Learn to appreciate the upside of quitting—because you can’t solve tomorrow’s problem if you aren’t willing to abandon today’s dud.
Levitt and Dubner plainly see the world like no one else. Now you can too. Never before have such iconoclastic thinkers been so revealing—and so much fun to read.
How does plot influence story structure? What's the difference between plotting for commercial and literary fiction? How do you revise a plot or structure that's gone off course?
With Write Great Fiction: Plot & Structure, you'll discover the answers to these questions and more. Award-winning author James Scott Bell offers clear, concise information that will help you create a believable and memorable plot, including:Techniques for crafting strong beginnings, middles, and ends Easy-to-understand plotting diagrams and charts Brainstorming techniques for original plot ideas Thought-provoking exercises at the end of each chapter Story structure models and methods for all genres Tips and tools for correcting common plot problems
Filled with plot examples from popular novels, comprehensive checklists, and practical hands-on guidance, Write Great Fiction: Plot & Structure gives you the skills you need to approach plot and structure like an experienced pro.
In this updated edition of Lakoff and Johnson's influential book, the authors supply an afterword surveying how their theory of metaphor has developed within the cognitive sciences to become central to the contemporary understanding of how we think and how we express our thoughts in language.
Words are the most powerful tools at our disposal. With them, writers have saved lives and taken them, brought justice and confounded it, started wars and ended them. Writers can change the way we think and transform our definitions of right and wrong.
Writing to Change the World is a beautiful paean to the transformative power of words. Encapsulating Mary Pipher's years as a writer and therapist, it features rousing commentary, personal anecdotes, memorable quotations, and stories of writers who have helped reshape society. It is a book that will shake up readers' beliefs, expand their minds, and possibly even inspire them to make their own mark on the world.
How essential is setting to a story? How much description is too much? In what ways do details and setting tie into plot and character development? How can you use setting and description to add depth to your story?
You can find all the answers you need in Write Great Fiction: Description & Setting by author and instructor Ron Rozelle. This nuts-and-bolts guide - complete with practical exercises at the end of each chapter - gives you all the tips and techniques you need to: Establish a realistic sense of time and place Use description and setting to drive your story Craft effective description and setting for different genres Skillfully master showing vs. telling With dozens of excerpts from some of today's most popular writers, Write Great Fiction: Description & Setting gives you all the information you need to create a sharp and believable world of people, places, events, and actions.
As a new speaker of English, you may hear some expressions in your daily conversations that you do not understand--yet. McGraw-Hill's Conversational American English will help you learn these expressions, so not only do you know what a person is saying to you, but that you can use the expression yourself! More than 3,000 expressions are organized by theme, so you can find what you are looking for quickly. And each topic is illustrated to further help you understand context.
The book features:Common expressions are batched into 350 themes, ranging from general greetings and asking how someone is, to the more specific needs, like showing disbelief, asking someone’s intentions, and expressions for a forgotten word or name A comprehensive thematic glossary provides an additional means for the learner to locate expressions by key words and concepts
Topics include: Basic Social Encounters, Greetings, Small Talk, Introductions, Ending a Conversation, Good-Byes, Agreeing, Disagreeing Conversational Encounters, Focusing Attention, Launching the Conversation, Making Friends, Complex Matters, Disputes, Discussion and Resolution, Polite Encounters, Prefaces, Communication Barriers
Linking prehistoric archaeological remains with the development of language, David Anthony identifies the prehistoric peoples of central Eurasia's steppe grasslands as the original speakers of Proto-Indo-European, and shows how their innovative use of the ox wagon, horseback riding, and the warrior's chariot turned the Eurasian steppes into a thriving transcontinental corridor of communication, commerce, and cultural exchange. He explains how they spread their traditions and gave rise to important advances in copper mining, warfare, and patron-client political institutions, thereby ushering in an era of vibrant social change. Anthony also describes his fascinating discovery of how the wear from bits on ancient horse teeth reveals the origins of horseback riding.
The Horse, the Wheel, and Language solves a puzzle that has vexed scholars for two centuries--the source of the Indo-European languages and English--and recovers a magnificent and influential civilization from the past.
With a career in law enforcement that spanned nearly two decades, author Lee Lofland is a nationally acclaimed expert on police procedures and crime scene investigations who consults regularly with best-selling authors and television producers. Now you can benefit from his years of experience with Police Procedure & Investigation.
This comprehensive resource includes: More than 80 photographs, illustrations, and charts showing everything from defensive moves used by officers to prison cells and autopsies Detailed information on officer training, tools of the trade, drug busts, con air procedures, crime scene investigation techniques, and more First-person details from the author about his experiences as a detective, including accounts of arrests, death penalty executions, and criminal encounters Police Procedure & Investigation is the next best thing to having a police detective personally assigned to your book!
Writing for young adult (YA) and middle grade (MG) audiences isn't just "kid's stuff" anymore--it's kidlit! The YA and MG book markets are healthier and more robust than ever, and that means the competition is fiercer, too. In Writing Irresistible Kidlit, literary agent Mary Kole shares her expertise on writing novels for young adult and middle grade readers and teaches you how to: Recognize the differences between middle grade and young adult audiences and how it impacts your writing. Tailor your manuscript's tone, length, and content to your readership. Avoid common mistakes and cliches that are prevalent in YA and MG fiction, in respect to characters, story ideas, plot structure and more. Develop themes and ideas in your novel that will strike emotional chords. Mary Kole's candid commentary and insightful observations, as well as a collection of book excerpts and personal insights from bestselling authors and editors who specialize in the children's book market, are invaluable tools for your kidlit career.
If you want the skills, techniques, and know-how you need to craft memorable stories for teens and tweens, Writing Irresistible Kidlit can give them to you.
The grammar was written with every student of the Hawaiian language in mind - from the casual interested layperson to the professional linguist and grammarian. Although it was obviously impossible to avoid technical terms, their use was kept to a minimum, and a glossary is included for those who need its help. Each point of grammar is illustrated with examples, many from Hawaiian-language literature.
New York Times Bestseller
“Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”
—New York Times Book Review
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism."
—New York Review of Books
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
From the Trade Paperback edition.
When should your character talk, what should (or shouldn't) he say, and when should he say it? How do you know when dialogue--or the lack thereof--is dragging down your scene? How do you fix a character who speaks without the laconic wit of the Terminator?
Write Great Fiction: Dialogue by successful author and instructor Gloria Kempton has the answers to all of these questions and more! It's packed with innovative exercises and instruction designed to teach you how to:Create dialogue that drives the storyWeave dialogue with narrative and actionWrite dialogue that fits specific genresAvoid the common pitfalls of writing dialogueMake dialogue unique for each character
Along with dozens of dialogue excerpts from today's most popular writers, Write Great Fiction: Dialogue gives you the edge you need to make your story stand out from the rest.
From studying the market, to mastering self-discipline and "creative procrastination," through coping with rejections, Telling Lies for Fun & Profit is an invaluable sourcebook of information. It is a must read for anyone serious about writing or understanding how the process works.
A truly memorable antagonist is not a one-dimensional super villain bent on world domination for no particular reason. Realistic, credible bad guys create essential story complications, personalize conflict, add immediacy to a story line, and force the protagonist to evolve.
From mischief-makers to villains to arch nemeses, Bullies, Bastards & Bitches shows you how to create nuanced bad guys who are indispensable to the stories in which they appear. Through detailed instruction and examples from contemporary bestsellers and classic page-turners, author Jessica Page Morrell also shows you how to: Understand the subtle but key differences between unlikeable protagonists, anti-heroes, dark heroes, and bad boys Supply even your darkest sociopath with a sympathetic attribute that will engage readers Set the stage for an unforgettable standoff between your hero and your villain Choose the right type of female villain–femme fatale, mommy dearest, avenger, etc.–for your story Bullies, Bastards & Bitches is your all-encompassing bad-guy compendium to tapping into any character's dark side.
With dozens of examples, many of them new, and useful tips for writing as well as faster on a computer, Writing That Works will show you how to improve anything you write:Presentations that move ideas and actionMemos and letters that get things donePlans and reports that make things happenFund-raising and sales letters that produce resultsResumes and letters that lead to interviewsSpeeches that make a point
Translating that initial flash of inspiration into a complete story requires careful crafting. So how do you keep your story from beginning slowly, floundering midway, and trailing off at the end? Nancy Kress shows you effective solutions for potential problems at each stage of your story—essential lessons for strong start-to-finish storytelling.
Hook readers, agents, and editors in the first three paragraphs. Make and keep your story’s implicit promise to the reader. Build drama and credibility by controlling your prose. Consider the price a writer pays for flashbacks. Reveal character effectively throughout your story.
Get the tools you need to get your story off to an engaging start, keep the middle tight and compelling, and make your conclusion high impact. You’ll also find dozens of exercises to help strengthen your short story or novel. Let this resource be your guide to successful stories—from the first word to the last.
Since his documentary, Fat, Sick & Nearly Dead, was released in 2010 and became a worldwide sensation, Joe Cross has become a tireless advocate for the power of juicing. The Reboot with Joe Juice Diet brings us of the plan that allowed him to overcome obesity, poor health, and bad habits, and presents success stories from others whose lives he’s touched.
Joe—who managed to lose one hundred pounds and discontinue all his medication by following his own plan—walks you through his life before juicing, sharing his self-defeating attitude toward food and fitness, and brings you along on his journey from obesity and disease to fitness, a clean bill of health, and the clarity of physical wellness.
In addition to sharing Joe’s inspirational story, The Reboot with Joe Juice Diet gives readers all the tools they need to embark on their own journey to health and wellness, including inspiration and encouragement, recipes, and diet plans.
“With relatively little effort, you can design and assemble an investment portfolio that, because of its wide diversification and minimal expenses, will prove superior to the most professionally managed accounts. Great intelligence and good luck are not required.”
William Bernstein’s commonsense approach to portfolio construction has served investors well during the past turbulent decade—and it’s what made The Four Pillars of Investing an instant classic when it was first published nearly a decade ago.
This down-to-earth book lays out in easy-to-understand prose the four essential topics that every investor must master: the relationship of risk and reward, the history of the market, the psychology of the investor and the market, and the folly of taking financial advice from investment salespeople.
Bernstein pulls back the curtain to reveal what really goes on in today’s financial industry as he outlines a simple program for building wealth while controlling risk. Straightforward in its presentation and generous in its real-life examples, The Four Pillars of Investing presents a no-nonsense discussion of:The art and science of mixing different asset classes into an effective blend The dangers of actively picking stocks, as opposed to investing in the whole market Behavioral finance and how state of mind can adversely affect decision making Reasons the mutual fund and brokerage industries, rather than your partners, are often your most direct competitors Strategies for managing all of your assets—savings, 401(k)s, home equity—as one portfolio
Investing is not a destination. It is a journey, and along the way are stockbrokers, journalists, and mutual fund companies whose interests are diametrically opposed to yours.
More relevant today than ever, The Four Pillars of Investing shows you how to determine your own financial direction and assemble an investment program with the sole goal of building long-term wealth for you and your family.
First published by the University of Chicago Press on September 18, 1944, The Road to Serfdom garnered immediate, widespread attention. The first printing of 2,000 copies was exhausted instantly, and within six months more than 30,000 books were sold. In April 1945, Reader’s Digest published a condensed version of the book, and soon thereafter the Book-of-the-Month Club distributed this edition to more than 600,000 readers. A perennial best seller, the book has sold 400,000 copies in the United States alone and has been translated into more than twenty languages, along the way becoming one of the most important and influential books of the century.
With this new edition, The Road to Serfdom takes its place in the series The Collected Works of F. A. Hayek. The volume includes a foreword by series editor and leading Hayek scholar Bruce Caldwell explaining the book's origins and publishing history and assessing common misinterpretations of Hayek's thought. Caldwell has also standardized and corrected Hayek's references and added helpful new explanatory notes. Supplemented with an appendix of related materials ranging from prepublication reports on the initial manuscript to forewords to earlier editions by John Chamberlain, Milton Friedman, and Hayek himself, this new edition of The Road to Serfdom will be the definitive version of Hayek's enduring masterwork.
The U.S. dollar has been the global reserve currency since the end of World War II. If the dollar fails, the entire international monetary system will fail with it. But optimists have always said, in essence, that confidence in the dollar will never truly be shaken, no matter how high our national debt or how dysfunctional our government.
In the last few years, however, the risks have become too big to ignore. While Washington is gridlocked, our biggest rivals—China, Russia, and the oil-producing nations of the Middle East—are doing everything possible to end U.S. monetary hegemony. The potential results: Financial warfare. Deflation. Hyperinflation. Market collapse. Chaos.
James Rickards, the acclaimed author of Currency Wars, shows why money itself is now at risk and what we can all do to protect ourselves. He explains the power of converting unreliable investments into real wealth: gold, land, fine art, and other long-term stores of value.
Rajan shows how the individual choices that collectively brought about the economic meltdown--made by bankers, government officials, and ordinary homeowners--were rational responses to a flawed global financial order in which the incentives to take on risk are incredibly out of step with the dangers those risks pose. He traces the deepening fault lines in a world overly dependent on the indebted American consumer to power global economic growth and stave off global downturns. He exposes a system where America's growing inequality and thin social safety net create tremendous political pressure to encourage easy credit and keep job creation robust, no matter what the consequences to the economy's long-term health; and where the U.S. financial sector, with its skewed incentives, is the critical but unstable link between an overstimulated America and an underconsuming world.
In Fault Lines, Rajan demonstrates how unequal access to education and health care in the United States puts us all in deeper financial peril, even as the economic choices of countries like Germany, Japan, and China place an undue burden on America to get its policies right. He outlines the hard choices we need to make to ensure a more stable world economy and restore lasting prosperity.
"There is no more powerful way to prove that we know something well than to draw a simple picture of it. And there is no more powerful way to see hidden solutions than to pick up a pen and draw out the pieces of our problem."
So writes Dan Roam in The Back of the Napkin, the international bestseller that proves that a simple drawing on a humble napkin can be more powerful than the slickest PowerPoint presentation. Drawing on twenty years of experience and the latest discoveries in vision science, Roam teaches readers how to clarify any problem or sell any idea using a simple set of tools.
He reveals that everyone is born with a talent for visual thinking, even those who swear they can't draw. And he shows how thinking with pictures can help you discover and develop new ideas, solve problems in unexpected ways, and dramatically improve your ability to share your insights.
Take Herb Kelleher and Rollin King, who figured out how to beat the traditional hub-and-spoke airlines with a bar napkin and a pen. Three dots to represent Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio. Three arrows to show direct flights. Problem solved, and the picture made it easy to sell Southwest Airlines to investors and customers.
Now with more color, bigger pictures, and additional content, this new edition does an even better job of helping you literally see the world in a new way. Join the teachers, project managers, doctors, engineers, assembly-line workers, pilots, football coaches, marine drill instructors, financial analysts, students, parents, and lawyers who have discovered the power of solving problems with pictures.