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Qatar's economy is driven by high oil and natural gas prices and production, and remains strong with robust nonhydrocarbon growth. Its government has now shifted its focus to economic diversification and growth in nonhydrocarbon sectors through targeted infrastructure investments. The Executive Directors of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted the positive regional spillover effects of Qatar’s high growth, public spending, and increased financial assistance. The adoption of a three-year budget framework to help shield government spending from revenue volatility and enable better use of resources is welcomed.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF): A 36 month, SDR 4,393 million (425 percent of quota) Extended Arrangement under the EFF was approved by the Executive Board on September 4, 2013 and the sixth review was completed on March 27, 2015, for a total disbursement of SDR 2,520 million. The seventh tranche amounting to SDR 360 million will be available upon the completion of this review. Status of the program: All end-March 2015 quantitative Performance Criteria (PCs) were achieved, as well as the indicative target (IT) on cash transfers under the Benazir Income Support program. The Indicative Target on federal tax revenue was missed by a small margin, reflecting legal challenges to some of the tax measures and the negative impact of lower global commodity prices. The authorities have taken action to improve revenue and remain on track to meet the end-June 2015 fiscal deficit target. The end-March 2015 Structural Benchmarks (SBs) to (i) draft legislation to remove the authority to grant new administrative tax exemptions, (ii) reorganize the debt management office, and (iii) review to simplify tax payment processes were all met. Going forward, the authorities propose: an adjustment to the end-June PC on net international reserves (NIR) to reflect higher reserves accumulation by the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP); end-September PCs; a new IT on accumulation of arrears in the power sector; and three new SBs in the areas of tax administration, debt management, and the power sector. Key issues: Discussions focused on: (i) end-March 2015 fiscal performance and the outlook for the remainder of the fiscal year; (ii) the draft FY2015/16 budget and measures to bring the fiscal deficit to 4.3 percent of GDP, including an adjustor of 0.3 percent of GDP for one-off priority spending on security enhancements related to fighting terrorism and resettlement of internally displaced persons; (iii) addressing arrears in the power sector; (iv) saving the windfall from falling oil prices to strengthen external buffers; (v) progress on safeguarding financial stability; and (vi) structural reforms in the energy sector, privatization, central bank independence, anti-money laundering framework, public debt management, trade, and business climate to unlock Pakistan’s long-term growth potential. Outreach activities included a joint press conference with the finance minister, TV and print media interviews, donor meetings, and roundtables with students and the donor community in Islamabad.
This paper discusses Pakistan’s First review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion (PCs) and Modification of Performance Criteria. All quantitative PCs for end-September 2013 were observed except for the one on net international reserves. The indicative target on social transfer payments was also missed, but the technical problems that caused the shortfall have since been rectified. The IMF Staff supports authorities’ request for completion of the first review under the arrangement and for a waiver for the nonobservance of the performance criterion on net international reserves accumulation.
This paper focuses on Sudan’s Interim Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (I-PRPS). I-PRSP will support existing planning and budgeting instruments, including the 3-Year Salvation Economic Program (SEP) 2012–2014 and the 5-Year Development Plan (2012–2016), by strengthening the prioritization of actions and targeting poverty. The 3-Year SEP is an emergency plan to deal with the adjustment to new political and economic realities following the decision of the South to secede. I-PRSP will also help to fine tune the preparation and implementation of the SEP and a new 5-year Plan, and provide a foundation for the full PRSP.
Morocco has made substantial progress in increasing inclusive growth over the past decade, but additional efforts in terms of growth-enhancing structural reforms are needed. Preserving economic efficiency and fostering growth while strengthening inclusiveness remains a priority. This paper describes the fuel subsidy system in Morocco, introduces an organizing framework to illustrate the trade-offs involved in meeting various economic and social objectives when considering subsidy reform, and highlights some lessons from the international experience in implementing subsidy reforms that may be pertinent to the case of Morocco.
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that high oil prices and increased production have enabled the government in Kuwait to continue to record high fiscal and external surpluses and build strong buffers. Overall real non-oil GDP growth is projected to increase modestly to 3 percent in 2013, driven by an increase in domestic consumption and pick-up in public investment. A slight reduction in oil production would bring down total real GDP growth below 1 percent. The overall average consumer price inflation is projected at 3 percent in 2013. The economic outlook is expected to improve further in 2014 and over the medium term.
The conflicts in Syria and Iraq have led to a massive influx of refugees, putting enormous pressure on Jordan’s limited resources, and to disruptions in trade routes, less tourism, and a hesitant investment sentiment. At the same time, the near complete halt of gas flows from Egypt required imports of expensive fuel for electricity generation, contributing to large losses at the national electricity company and adding to the already high public debt. Jordan’s program has helped the economy weather these shocks. Gradual consolidation by the central government and public utilities, aided by lower oil prices, ensured that public debt is broadly stabilizing this year and, together with a prudent monetary policy, has preserved macroeconomic stability and supported confidence.
The Regional Economic Outlook assesses the near-term outlook for each of the three subregions: the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) oil exporters, the MENAP oil importers, and the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA). The report also looks at medium-term issues of particular concern to the region, namely the need to boost competitiveness and growth to address high levels of long-standing unemployment in the MENAP region, and enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy and regional cooperation in the CCA.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Qatar is implementing an ambitious diversification strategy, while retaining its systemic role in the global natural gas market. Qatar accounts for one-third of global liquefied natural gas trade and has emerged as an important global financial investor, labor importer, and donor. The authorities are executing a large public infrastructure program to advance economic diversification and prepare for the FIFA 2022 World Cup. The economy has maintained strong growth momentum so far despite the large drop in oil prices since summer 2014. The short-term growth outlook is positive, but lower oil prices will lead to a substantial deterioration of the fiscal and external balances.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context: Political and security uncertainties and an inadequate policy response led to lower growth and emergence of important fiscal and banking vulnerabilities in 2014. The establishment of a national unity government and the December 2014 London Conference has helped build confidence and reconfirmed donor support for Afghanistan. The proposed staff-monitored program (SMP) will foster continued close engagement with Afghanistan, address vulnerabilities, and help manage risks. An independent staff team is preparing an ex post assessment of the Funds’ engagement with Afghanistan since 2006 and its report will be sent to the Executive Board separately. Focus of the SMP: In the attached Letter of Intent, dated May 6, 2015, the authorities requested a new SMP covering the period April 1, 2015–December 31, 2015. The SMP will aim to mobilize revenue and address urgent banking vulnerabilities. Successful performance under the SMP would support a future request for an IMF financial arrangement, foster macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth. Policy recommendations: Fiscal policy will focus on mobilizing domestic revenue and rebuilding the treasury’s cash balance. Monetary policy will aim to preserve low inflation and maintain exchange rate flexibility to protect international reserves and competiveness, and avoid excessive volatility. Structural reforms will focus on: (i) revenue mobilization, expenditure control and repayment of arrears; (ii) financial sector reforms to deal with weak banks, promulgate the new banking law, amend the central bank law, strengthen banking supervision, and address weaknesses in state banks including New Kabul Bank; and (iii) improving economic governance by strengthening the anti- corruption, anti-money laundering, and countering the financing of terrorism regimes. Risks to the SMP: Risks, mostly on the downside, are related to adverse security developments, inadequate implementation of economic policies, political instability, and donor fatigue. Large security and development expenditure needs mean that Afghanistan will remain dependent on donor financing for an extended period. On the upside, a political agreement that improves security conditions, stronger domestic demand and early development of mining projects would result in faster growth.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The economy is recovering and the outlook is favorable but still subject to significant risks. After slowing to below 2½ percent in 2014, growth is expected to be close to 5 percent in 2015, boosted by a strong agricultural output and a gradual acceleration of activity in other sectors. Fiscal policy is on track to achieve the annual deficit objective of 4.3 percent of GDP. The external position has improved rapidly, benefiting from lower oil prices and strong export performance. Inflation remains low. However, more remains to be done to reduce unemployment, especially among the youth. Assuming steadfast implementation of reforms, growth should gradually accelerate over the medium term. However, the outlook remains subject to the risks of a structurally weak growth in key advanced economies, tighter or more volatile global financial conditions, and increased volatility of energy prices. Important progress has been made on key reforms; sustaining these efforts will be important to foster higher and more inclusive growth. Significant progress was made in reforming the subsidy system, thereby reducing its costs and associated fiscal risks. At the same time, social programs on health and education were expanded. The adoption of the new organic budget law in May 2015 was a crucial step in improving the fiscal framework, while progress has also been made in upgrading the financial policy framework. Timely reform of the pension system is needed to ensure its viability while extending its coverage. Sustaining efforts to improve the business environment, competition, governance and transparency, as well as the functioning of the job market and the quality of education and vocational training, will also be important for increasing competitiveness, growth, and employment. The program remains on track and Morocco continues to meet the PLL qualification criteria. Both March 2015 quantitative indicative targets were met comfortably. Morocco continues to perform strongly in three out of the five PLL qualification areas, while not substantially underperforming in the fiscal and external areas. Staff recommends the completion of the second review under the arrangement.
The economic condition of Algeria in 2012 is stable. Rising inflation, continued heavy reliance on the hydrocarbon sector and public spending, and vulnerability to a prolonged decline in the oil price, as well as high unemployment pose significant challenges. Explicitly considering an annual cap on drawdowns from the oil fund would strengthen the oil price fiscal rule. The importance of public financial management, shortcomings in the Anti-Money Laundering and Combating the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) framework, restrictive FDI, and full-fledged budget framework has been stressed. Measures taken for increasing employment have been outlined.
This paper reviews Morocco’s Third Review Under the Two Year Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL). The PLL aims to provide insurance against external risks while supporting the authorities program aimed at reducing fiscal and external vulnerabilities and increasing higher growth. The paper outlines that macroeconomic performance has improved in 2013, but the outlook still hinges on the sustained delivery of reforms. The IMF report highlights that continued improvement in economic conditions depend on the sustained implementation of reforms to further reduce vulnerabilities, strengthen competitiveness, and incur stronger growth.
Iraq is facing a double shock arising from the ISIS insurgency and the sharp drop in global oil prices. The conflict is hurting the non-oil economy through destruction of infrastructure and assets, disruptions in trade, and deterioration of investor confidence. The impact of the oil price decline—already felt in 2014—will fully unfold in 2015, affecting the budget, the external sector, and medium-term growth potential. The authorities are responding to the crisis through mix of fiscal adjustment and financing, maintaining their commitment to the exchange rate peg. Rapid Financing Instrument: To help address the present and urgent balance of payment and budget needs triggered by the ISIS insurgency and the collapse in oil prices, the authorities have requested financial assistance under the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) for 50 percent of quota (SDR 594.2 million).
Outlook and Risks: Assuming a resolution of the conflict in the coming years, the baseline medium-term outlook still looks positive, even though it would be significantly less favorable than at the time of the 2013 Article IV report. Under much improved security conditions, the macroeconomic scenario would continue to be driven by the expansion in oil production and non-oil sector growth, assuming the implementation of structural reform to diversify the economy and support private sector development. But risks remain very high, arising primarily from a worsening of the conflict, political tensions, and poor policy implementation.
Outlook and Risks: Assuming a resolution of the conflict in the coming years, the baseline medium-term outlook still looks positive, even though it would be significantly less favorable than at the time of the 2013 Article IV report. Under much improved security conditions, the macroeconomic scenario would continue to be driven by the expansion in oil production and non-oil sector growth, assuming the implementation of structural reform to diversify the economy and support private sector development. But risks remain very high, arising primarily from a worsening of the conflict, political tensions, and poor policy implementation.
This paper discusses Jordan’s Sixth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Applicability of Performance Criteria (PC), and Rephasing of Access. PC Program performance remains broadly on course. All end-March 2015 PCs are expected to be met. Structural performance saw improvement, including the pre-approval of a credit bureau and the establishment of a new public investment framework. There is an urgent need for broad-based policy actions in the labor market to put the unemployed into jobs, increase female labor force participation, and reform public-sector compensation and hiring practices. The IMF staff supports the completion of the sixth review and the related purchase.
KEY ISSUES Context. Over the past decade, Afghanistan has made enormous progress in reconstruction, development and lifting per capita income. Security and political uncertainties, and weak institutions have constrained growth and weighed on social outcomes. With significant reform efforts and donor support, Afghanistan has maintained macroeconomic stability, implemented important structural reforms, and built policy buffers, but significant vulnerabilities remain. The IMF has been supporting Afghanistan through technical assistance and a three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. Reviews under the ECF arrangement have been delayed. Outlook and risks. 2014 is a crucial year in the political and security transitions and the run-up to the “transformation decade” (2015–24). Assuming smooth political and security transitions, continued reform and donor financing, the outlook should be positive. Large security and development expenditure needs and a limited domestic revenue capacity mean that Afghanistan will remain dependent on donor financing for an extended period. Macroeconomic stability, structural reforms, and political and security stability are needed to ensure inclusive growth. Risks, mostly on the downside, are related to adverse domestic or regional security developments, political instability, inadequate implementation of economic policies, and donor fatigue. Policy recommendations. The authorities’ economic strategy (maintaining macroeconomic stability, strengthening the financial sector, improving economic governance, and moving toward fiscal sustainability) remains appropriate and needs strengthened implementation. Sustained implementation of this strategy will safeguard growth and build buffers to help manage shocks. Policies should continue to aim at strengthening revenue collection, managing money growth to control inflation while preserving exchange rate flexibility, strengthening bank supervision, and quickly enacting anti-money laundering (AML), countering financing of terrorism (CFT), banking, central bank, and value-added tax legislation.
The Middle East and Central Asia region grew at 6.5 percent in 2007, marking its best five-year performance over the past 30 years. So far, the turmoil in international financial markets has had a limited impact on the region, and the short-term outlook remains very favorable. The report reviews recent economic developments, assesses the outlook for the coming year, and discusses key policy challenges. In addition, it takes a closer look at both regional topics--such as the rise in inflation in the GCC countries, intraregional capital flows, developments in oil markets, developments in real estate prices, and sovereign wealth funds--and country reviews for Algeria, Georgia, Iraq, and West Bank and Gaza.
This Selected Issues paper explores the monetary policy transmission channels in Algeria and analyzes available options to strengthen monetary policy effectiveness. High liquidity has been the hallmark of the Algerian monetary policy framework for most of the 2000s. The paper assesses the impact of monetary policy changes on its final targets—growth and inflation, and outlines policy options to strengthen the efficacy of monetary policy. It takes stock of Algeria’s current fiscal framework, and discusses options and strategies for a revised fiscal framework. Key principles for managing natural resource funds are also described.
A 36 month, SDR 4,393 million (425 percent of quota) Extended Arrangement under the EFF was approved by the Executive Board on September 4, 2013 and the third review was completed on June 27, 2014, with a total of SDR 1,440 million disbursed. Fifth and sixth tranches totaling of SDR 720 million will be available upon the completion of this review.
This paper discusses Jordan’s Fifth Review Under the Stand-by Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion (PC) and Applicability of PC, Modification of PC, and Rephasing of Access. Program performance in 2014 is broadly on track. The end-September PC on the central government primary deficit is estimated to have been met, but the PC on the combined public sector deficit is likely to have been missed owing to a shortfall in gas flows from Egypt. International reserves continued to over-perform through September. The IMF staff supports the completion of the fifth review and the related purchase.
KEY ISSUES Context. Georgia’s previous Fund-supported program, which expired in April 2014, met most of its objectives, in particular by reducing Georgia’s external and fiscal imbalances. The program also helped preserve the central bank’s independence after the 2012–13 political transition and strengthened its inflation-targeting framework. However, over time it proved increasingly difficult to reconcile the program’s fiscal objectives with the new government’s policies of increasing social spending, especially after the economy slowed and revenues fell short in 2013. Also, despite the progress achieved under the program, macroeconomic challenges remain. The current account deficit and external debt are high, leaving the economy susceptible to shocks. Strong and inclusive growth is needed to reduce widespread poverty and high unemployment. More recently, the external outlook has worsened, opening up a balance of payments need in 2014. Program and its objectives. To address these challenges, the authorities request a new three-year SDR 100 million (67 percent of quota) Stand-by Arrangement to address an external financing need in 2014 related in part to the realignment of fiscal policies to more social spending. The program will facilitate Georgia’s external adjustment, reduce key macroeconomic vulnerabilities, rebuild policy buffers, and support growth. Program policies. In 2014, the program balances supporting domestic demand with the need to safeguard external stability. To reduce the output gap, fiscal policy provides a measured stimulus, while monetary policy remains accommodative. However, the authorities will tighten policies and allow the exchange rate to adjust if balance of payments pressures were to intensify. From 2015, the fiscal deficit will be reduced to keep public debt low and to create space for countercyclical policies. This consolidation will rely on raising revenue by broadening the tax base and containing current expenditure, while protecting pro-poor spending and public investment. Monetary policy will aim at price stability through improved inflation targeting. The program will seek to rebuild international reserves while encouraging greater exchange rate flexibility. Strengthening of the financial sector will continue, helped by the recommendations of the recent FSAP mission. The program also aims to contain risks from quasi-fiscal activities and support improvements in tax administration, and will complement the authorities’ reforms to strengthen the business environment, improve education and training, create jobs and reduce poverty and inequality.
This Selected Issues paper estimates the optimal allocation of government current spending, precautionary saving, and investment for Kuwait under uncertainty. The results show that in the face of high oil income volatility and the expected decline in oil prices, projected current spending exceeds the optimal amount over the medium term (2013–2018). However, there is room to increase investment spending, which should contribute to the growth of the tradable sector, as the projected investment rate is lower than the optimal investment rate of 20 percent of government income.
KEY ISSUES Context. Macroeconomic developments have been in line with the program. Growth has recovered, led by domestic demand, with the Russia-Ukraine crisis having limited economic impact so far. Growth should reach 5 percent in 2014. Georgia and the EU started applying their Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) agreement provisionally in September. Although some ministers left the cabinet in November, the ruling Georgian Dream government has kept its majority and has reaffirmed its commitment to Georgia’s goal of increased European integration. Outlook and Risks. Growth should remain at 5 percent in 2015. Downside risks stem from possible escalation of regional tensions and weaker recovery in the Euro area. On the upside, lower oil prices could boost growth and reduce the current account deficit. Policies. Although this year’s fiscal deficit should come in below target, the composition of spending has again shifted from capital to current and the substantial increase in government spending planned for the fourth quarter could lead to balance of payments pressures. The 3 percent of GDP deficit in the 2015 draft budget is consistent with the program objectives of preserving fiscal sustainability and supporting external adjustment. The draft budget envisages increases in pensions, teacher salaries, drug benefit coverage, and capital spending paid for by higher excises on tobacco, alcohol, and incoming international phone calls. Annual inflation rose to 3½ percent in October but remains below the National Bank of Georgia’s (NBG) inflation target of 6 percent for 2014. The stability of the lari against the U.S. dollar has resulted in appreciation against key trading partners. The current account deficit has widened in 2014 as expected with the economic recovery but should decline in the medium term supported by fiscal consolidation, exchange rate flexibility, reforms to improve competitiveness, and greater trade opportunities. Reserve accumulation under the program will strengthen resilience to shocks. The NBG is committed to implementing the FSAP recommendations. Program. The program is on track, with all September conditionality met except for the structural benchmark on preparing an access to finance study which has now been reset. SDR40 million will become available upon the completion of the review.
KEY ISSUES Political Context: Sudan is embarking on a difficult national dialogue with the opposition and some armed groups in the Blue Nile and South Kordofan regions. The objective is to break the current destructive cycle of instability and prepare for the upcoming presidential election in 2015. This dialogue, if successful, could help create the conditions needed to address the challenges that emerged after the secession of South Sudan, including sustaining a much-needed broad economic recovery and adjusting the economy to its new potential. The current staff monitored program (SMP) is providing an adequate policy framework and a path in this direction. Macroeconomic situation and outlook: Tight monetary conditions and improved fiscal performance, together with lower food prices, contributed to lower inflation at end-March. However, the curb market exchange rate further depreciated against the U.S. dollar on account of the uncertainties in the oil market triggered by the South Sudan conflict, further widening the gap between the official and curb market rates to more than 50 percent. The outlook for 2014 remains broadly favorable, with growth expected to reach 2.5 percent, and inflation to continue its downward trend to about 18 percent. Program performance: Performance under the SMP through end-March 2014 was affected by adverse shocks and security spillovers. All end-March quantitative benchmarks were met, except for the ones on net international reserves and net domestic assets of the Central Bank of Sudan (CBOS). The indicative targets on social spending and the non-oil primary deficit were also missed by a slight margin. Corrective actions have been taken to ensure that these targets will be met in the second quarter. Urgent measures are needed to address the gap between the official and curb market exchange rates. The authorities have also made good progress toward meeting their end-June structural benchmarks. Risks remain large and tilted to the downside. The uncertain political transition, the volatile domestic oil market, and the fragile security environment may slow down the reform momentum. The recent peace agreement between the warring factions in South Sudan, if implemented, would improve the risk outlook.
This paper highlights Morocco’s Second Review Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line. The IMF report analyzes that the 2012 fiscal outcome entailed a significant slippage from the authorities’ target and exposed vulnerabilities in the budget framework. Core inflation has remained low while the unemployment rate remained about 9 percent. After worsening in 2012, the current account has been improving in 2013, while reserves have stabilized at about four months of imports. Liquidity conditions have remained tight, and credit growth has continued to decelerate, driven by both supply and demand factors.
This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Georgia’s real GDP growth averaged 6½ percent in 2011–2012, about 1½ percentage points more than projected at the 2011 Article IV consultation. Inflation has declined steadily, reflecting lower food prices, lagged effects of exchange rate appreciation, and cuts in administered energy prices. The exchange rate has faced appreciation pressures, but has been kept stable against the U.S. dollar. However, the economy has slowed down markedly since mid-2012, and unemployment remains high at 15 percent. Despite the slowdown, growth could still reach 4 percent in 2013, rising to about 6 percent in 2014 and beyond.
The political and security environment remains uncertain in Libya. Libya faces the challenges of stabilizing the economy and responding to the aspirations of the revolution. The near-term outlook is favorable, but there are significant risks. The overarching policy objective should be to foster inclusive growth. Banks are not intermediating, and resources should be devoted to its effective implementation. Expenditure is skewed toward wages and subsidies. Libya needs to adopt a comprehensive reform strategy. The government agrees with the assessment of the economic outlook and associated risks and policy options as outlined by Executive Directors.
This Selected Issues paper presents an overview of the cross-border expansion of Moroccan banks in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It discusses policies to minimize possible negative spillovers and address the main supervisory challenges. It builds on the analysis and main results of a Pan-African Cross-Border Exercise—a joint initiative by the IMF’s African and Monetary and Capital Markets departments, with the collaboration of the Middle East and Central Asia department. It highlights that that Morocco could play an instrumental role by providing technical assistance to other supervisors in the region, and the SSA region may benefit from the Moroccan experience of good practices in many areas and relatively advanced supervisory capacity.
Context: Over the past two decades, Kazakhstan has successfully harnessed its oil resources to bolster economic growth, increase buffers, and reduce poverty. However, in the face of recent large and likely long-lasting external shocks?lower oil prices, Russia slowdown, and corollary exchange rate (ER) movements (ruble depreciation, dollar appreciation)-growth has decelerated rapidly, financial conditions have tightened, and pressures on the balance of payments and exchange rate have built up. The shocks have also increased financial sector vulnerabilities, where nonperforming loans (NPLs), while declining significantly, remain high, and rising balance sheet risks and tight exchange rate management, have put further drag on banks' lending and economic activity. Nevertheless, more recently, and in response to reduced currency pressures and reduced spreads, the authorities successfully tapped the international capital markets and widened the ER band. Focus of consultation and key recommendations: The consultation focused on calibrating the policy response to address Kazakhstan's near-term challenges and long-term goals of becoming a dynamic emerging market economy. Principally, there is need to (i) identify credible medium-term fiscal consolidation measures to ensure sustainability; (ii) introduce greater exchange rate flexibility to help the economy absorb current and future external shocks; (iii) bolster financial sector resilience to limit adverse spillovers back to the real sector; and (iv) implement structural reforms to ensure durable growth and shared prosperity. Previous consultation: During the 2014 Article IV Consultation, Directors stressed the importance of restoring confidence in the post-devaluation environment and further strengthening the policy frameworks to bolster the economy's resilience to shocks. Specifically, Directors (i) urged appropriate supervisory actions to enforce the NPL ceilings effectively, while ensuring adequate provisions; (ii) highlighted the need to speed up the introduction of a new policy interest rate instrument; (iii) stressed the need to enhance fiscal coverage and integration into a consistent macro-fiscal framework; and (iv) noted the priority of strengthening human capital and institutions, and lowering the role of the state in the economy. Since then, the authorities' resolute efforts on lowering NPLs have begun to pay off, and important early steps have been taken to enhance monetary policy operations, ER flexibility, and communication. Progress in bolstering the fiscal policy framework, however, has been slow. The authorities have also embarked on an ambitious structural reform program and recently completed negotiations to join the WTO within 2015.
This Selected Issues paper on the United Arab Emirates highlights the macroprudential policies. The fixed exchange rate and persistent structural liquidity surpluses in upswings add to the difficulties in managing aggregate demand contain credit expansion. The exchange rate peg and the open capital account allow limited room to deviate from the U.S. interest rates. Monetary policy is further constrained by limited liquidity management capabilities, as liquidity forecasting is in its infancy, and central banks liquidity management relies primarily on reserve requirements and standing facilities for liquidity absorption. The lack of a local currency fixed-income market raises the prominence of real estate as an asset class for investment and the exposure of the banking system to the real estate sector.
This Selected Issues paper analyzes scope for further de-dollarization policies in Armenia. High financial dollarization makes Armenia more vulnerable to external shocks and limits its capacity to respond. The de-dollarization strategy is broad and comprehensive, and has achieved a reduction of deposit dollarization during the past few years. Additional efforts should focus on reducing inflation volatility and external imbalances, using prudential regulations to increase foreign currency liquidity in the banking system, and strengthening the monitoring of currency mismatches. International experience suggests, however, that further reductions in dollarization are likely to occur only gradually.
Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia underlines that the region has continued to experience strong growth in 2008, and the short-term outlook is generally favorable. However, inflation has emerged as a key issue, and while the global credit crunch has thus far had a limited impact on regional financial markets, the financial turmoil and slowdown in developed economies could lower growth in the period ahead. Policies will need to focus on tightening the fiscal and monetary stance where appropriate, with greater exchange rate flexibility, and continuing efforts to strengthen the resilience of financial sectors.
This paper discusses Morocco’s 2013 Article IV Consultation on economic developments and policies. The IMF report highlights that despite unfavorable external and domestic environment Morocco’s economic performance has improved during 2013. The Morocco’s economy remains vulnerable to international conditions and a difficult regional environment. It focuses on the importance of giving more flexibility in the exchange rate regime that intends to support competitiveness, enhance the capacity of the economy to absorb shocks, and support the authorities’ strategy for diversifying external flows away from Europe.
The postcrisis recovery in Armenia has accelerated, but challenges remain. Economic policies have been broadly consistent with IMF advice. Credit growth has been strong, especially in foreign currency (FX). The banking system is sound. The central bank (CBA) is improving the regulatory and supervisory framework in line with Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) recommendations. Risks are mainly on the downside and come from potential external shocks, political uncertainties, and regional conflicts. Strong adjustment is continuing in 2012 with the deficit again expected to be lower than budgeted.
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
This selected issues paper on Sudan was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on September 7, 2012. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of Sudan or the Executive Board of the IMF.
Mauritania successfully weathered several exogenous shocks during 2011–12. Political upheaval in neighboring countries has not had detrimental economic effects so far, but political uncertainty remains high. Resilient growth and a continued buildup of external and fiscal buffers characterize better-than-expected macroeconomic developments. Ambitious structural reforms are vital for generating broad-based inclusive growth, promoting employment, and reducing poverty. The authorities will continue to improve transparency and economic statistics. Policy actions laid the foundation for a sound macroeconomic performance, although important challenges and vulnerabilities remain.
KEY ISSUES Context: The economy is being severely tested by the Syria crisis. The refugee influx has reached one quarter of the population, fueling already high unemployment and poverty. The political impasse from the presidential elections—following months of negotiations over a new government—adds to the uncertainty. The economy is meanwhile suffering from a broad-based deterioration, with subdued growth and widening fiscal imbalances. Public debt is on the rise. Progress on structural reforms has been limited. On the positive side, deposit inflows have held up and foreign exchange reserves are sizeable; and security conditions have significantly improved, lifting tourism prospects. Key challenges: There is an urgent need for fiscal adjustment to achieve a sustainable debt reduction, and structural reforms to boost growth and address social inequities. Key policy recommendations: • Fiscal policy. The immediate priority is to stop the fiscal deterioration and return to primary surpluses, to avoid a possible loss of market confidence and put debt on a sustainable path. The consolidation strategy should minimize the impact of a planned salary increase for the public sector; include broad-based and non- distortionary revenue measures; and rebalance expenditure away from electricity transfers toward capital and social spending, to promote inclusive growth. Passing a budget for 2014 would help anchor confidence. Fiscal management should be strengthened and anchored in a medium-term perspective. • Monetary policy. The Banque du Liban (BdL) should continue to maintain high foreign exchange reserves as a buffer and signal of commitment to macro-financial stability. It should gradually withdraw from T-bill auctions, and adopt a strategy to improve its balance sheet over time. • Financial sector. Capital buffers should be strengthened, and the loan classification and restructuring rules and the AML/CFT regime further enhanced. • Structural reforms. Reforms in the electricity sector and the labor market are imperative to address current competitiveness pressures, lay the foundations for higher-productivity growth, and improve social conditions. • Refugee crisis. Lebanon cannot shoulder the costs of the massive inflow of Syrian refugees alone, and international budget support is needed. Strong government commitment to adjustment and reforms—along with a concerted policy framework to deal with the refugee crisis—would bolster credibility and help mobilize support.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context: Political and security uncertainties and an inadequate policy response led to lower growth and emergence of important fiscal and banking vulnerabilities in 2014. The establishment of a national unity government and the December 2014 London Conference has helped build confidence and reconfirmed donor support for Afghanistan. The proposed staff-monitored program (SMP) will foster continued close engagement with Afghanistan, address vulnerabilities, and help manage risks. An independent staff team is preparing an ex post assessment of the Funds’ engagement with Afghanistan since 2006 and its report will be sent to the Executive Board separately. Focus of the SMP: In the attached Letter of Intent, dated May 6, 2015, the authorities requested a new SMP covering the period April 1, 2015–December 31, 2015. The SMP will aim to mobilize revenue and address urgent banking vulnerabilities. Successful performance under the SMP would support a future request for an IMF financial arrangement, foster macroeconomic stability and inclusive growth. Policy recommendations: Fiscal policy will focus on mobilizing domestic revenue and rebuilding the treasury’s cash balance. Monetary policy will aim to preserve low inflation and maintain exchange rate flexibility to protect international reserves and competiveness, and avoid excessive volatility. Structural reforms will focus on: (i) revenue mobilization, expenditure control and repayment of arrears; (ii) financial sector reforms to deal with weak banks, promulgate the new banking law, amend the central bank law, strengthen banking supervision, and address weaknesses in state banks including New Kabul Bank; and (iii) improving economic governance by strengthening the anti- corruption, anti-money laundering, and countering the financing of terrorism regimes. Risks to the SMP: Risks, mostly on the downside, are related to adverse security developments, inadequate implementation of economic policies, political instability, and donor fatigue. Large security and development expenditure needs mean that Afghanistan will remain dependent on donor financing for an extended period. On the upside, a political agreement that improves security conditions, stronger domestic demand and early development of mining projects would result in faster growth.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context. On June 7, 2013, the Executive Board approved a 24-month Stand-By Arrangement in an amount equivalent to 400 percent of quota (SDR 1.146 billion or about $1.75 billion). To date, SDR 716.25 million, equivalent to $1.1 billion, has been disbursed. Background. Tunisia is completing a successful political transition to democracy while navigating a challenging environment marked by high social and security tensions, slow growth in trading partners, and spillovers from regional conflicts. At the same time, large external and fiscal imbalances, high unemployment, and increased banking fragilities remain the main challenges. Program implementation has been mixed. All quantitative performance criteria have been met. However, progress on the structural reform agenda has been slow, with considerable delays in the recapitalization of public banks and the legislative agenda on the tax, investment and bank asset recovery fronts. Program strategy. The focus should continue to be on short-term macroeconomic stabilization and laying foundations for higher and more inclusive growth, including by moving forcefully on banking reforms. Prudent fiscal and monetary policy, along with improved budget composition and greater exchange rate flexibility, need to be directed to containing high imbalances and anchoring inflationary expectations. Recapitalizing public banks in line with good international practices is urgent in view of mounting risks to financial stability, and is also important in light of its impact on financial intermediation and growth. Progress on structural reforms is necessary to generate the conditions conducive to private sector–led and inclusive growth and protect the most vulnerable. Risks to program implementation are important. The main risks relate to regional and domestic security tensions, delays in forming a new government, shortfalls in official and market financing, or a further deterioration of the international economic environment. The implementation of program policies will continue to be tested by opposition from vested interests; however, support for the reform agenda among the authorities and a broad spectrum of political parties represents a key risk-mitigating measure. The completion of the fifth review will make SDR 71.625 million (about $110 million) available.
In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.
This paper discusses Tunisia’s First and Second Reviews Under the Stand-by Arrangement and Request for Waivers of Applicability and Nonobservance of Performance Criteria. Program performance has been mixed. A weak budget composition, lower budget commitments, and deferred cash payments to 2014 resulted in an overperformance of the end-December fiscal target for the central government primary balance. Looking ahead, the program will continue to focus on ensuring short-term macroeconomic stabilization while laying the foundations for sustained reforms that will reduce economic vulnerabilities and generate higher and more inclusive growth.
KEY ISSUES Context: Solid growth in recent years, supported by high oil prices and output, has boosted living standards. This year, the economy is slowing down, in large part because of weaker domestic and external demand, and regional tensions. Inflation is expected to accelerate temporarily due to the devaluation of the tenge (February 2014). Enhancing the policy architecture and promoting a business environment unencumbered by the state remain key challenges for Kazakhstan to become a dynamic emerging market economy and ensure durable and balanced long-term growth. The recent reappointment of Prime Minister Massimov was accompanied by the authorities’ commitment to speeding up structural reforms. In this context, the government is strengthening its links with the multilateral development banks (MDBs). The May 29 signing of the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU), with Russia and Belarus, is not expected to have near-term economic effects; medium-term effects will depend on how the Union’s rules and regulations will be implemented. Focus of consultation and key recommendations: Amid uncertain external and domestic environments, the consultation focused on policy measures to mitigate shocks and achieve the authorities’ short- and medium-term objectives, in particular: (i) restoring confidence and stability in the post-devaluation environment; (ii) resolving the nonperforming loans (NPL) problem, in line with the recent FSAP recommendations; (iii) bolstering the monetary and fiscal policy frameworks, as recommended last year; and (iv) accelerating structural reforms, including the implementation of industrialization and diversification policies carefully and transparently. Previous consultation: During the 2013 Article IV Consultation, Directors encouraged the authorities to take advantage of the positive outlook to strengthen the macroeconomic policy architecture, including by (i) showing greater determination to addressing the high level of NPLs; (ii) following through on the planned introduction of a new policy interest rate to enhance the transmission mechanism of monetary policy; and (iii) revamping the medium-term fiscal framework through improved coverage and transparency. Since then, the authorities have been more resolute in dealing with the NPL problem. However, progress in strengthening the monetary and fiscal policy frameworks has been slow.
Fiscal consolidation, additional reserve buildup, and higher growth are key program objectives for the Jordanian authorities. Despite the socially difficult elimination of the fuel subsidy, program performance was mixed. Initiatives to strengthen banking supervision and develop capital markets are important. The program addresses economic imbalances and safeguards social stability. Executive Directors are satisfied with the action taken to rebuild reserves through an increase in interest rates and by attracting donor funds, as well as domestic dollar-denominated financing. The government is committed to working on steps to boost revenue.
The outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is mixed. Oil-importing countries are witnessing tepid growth, and the moderate recovery expected in 2013 is subject to heightened downside risks. For the Arab countries in transition, ongoing political transitions also weigh on growth. With policy buffers largely eroded, the need for action on macroeconomic stabilization and growth-oriented reforms is becoming increasingly urgent. Countries will need to put in place safety nets to protect the poor and build consensus for some difficult fiscal choices. The region’s oil exporters are expected to post solid growth in 2012, in part due to Libya’s better-than-expected postwar recovery. In the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, robust growth is supported by expansionary fiscal policies and accommodative monetary conditions. In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the outlook remains favorable, reflecting high oil prices that are benefiting oil and gas exporters, supportive commodity prices and remittance inflows benefiting oil and gas importers, and, for both groups, moderate direct exposure to Europe. The positive outlook provides an opportunity to strengthen policy buffers to prepare for any downside risks.
The government of the Kyrgyz Republic is determined to consolidate its finances over the coming years. This note describes the main elements of the tax regime in the Kyrgyz Republic, looks into tax incentives, and provides some reform options to raise revenues. The second note is on monetary policy in the Kyrgyz Republic, which faces challenges with respect to formulation and efficacy given the low monetization, the shallow financial system, high dollarization, and a predominantly cash-based economy.
This paper discusses Jordan’s Sixth Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Applicability of Performance Criteria (PC), and Rephasing of Access. PC Program performance remains broadly on course. All end-March 2015 PCs are expected to be met. Structural performance saw improvement, including the pre-approval of a credit bureau and the establishment of a new public investment framework. There is an urgent need for broad-based policy actions in the labor market to put the unemployed into jobs, increase female labor force participation, and reform public-sector compensation and hiring practices. The IMF staff supports the completion of the sixth review and the related purchase.
This paper highlights Pakistan’s 2013 Article IV Consultation and Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility. Discussions in the IMF report focus on macroeconomic policies to address vulnerabilities and reforms to promote robust inclusive growth. The authorities’ ambitious economic program aims to reverse the current mix of large fiscal deficits and, accommodative monetary policy, and low reserve coverage, which provides few buffers to absorb shocks. The authorities have requested a 36-month extended arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for SDR 4.393 billion.
This paper discusses Jordan’s Second Review Under the Stand-by Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PCs), and Modification of PCs. Program performance is broadly on track. The central bank rebuilt reserves, which are now at a comfortable level and well above what was programmed. The national electricity company’s losses were in line with the program through June, but the end-September PC is estimated to have been missed because a temporary interruption in gas flows required more expensive fuel imports. The IMF staff strongly supports the authorities’ plans to seek higher grants.
The classic guide to constructing a solid portfolio—without a financial advisor!
“With relatively little effort, you can design and assemble an investment portfolio that, because of its wide diversification and minimal expenses, will prove superior to the most professionally managed accounts. Great intelligence and good luck are not required.”
William Bernstein’s commonsense approach to portfolio construction has served investors well during the past turbulent decade—and it’s what made The Four Pillars of Investing an instant classic when it was first published nearly a decade ago.
This down-to-earth book lays out in easy-to-understand prose the four essential topics that every investor must master: the relationship of risk and reward, the history of the market, the psychology of the investor and the market, and the folly of taking financial advice from investment salespeople.
Bernstein pulls back the curtain to reveal what really goes on in today’s financial industry as he outlines a simple program for building wealth while controlling risk. Straightforward in its presentation and generous in its real-life examples, The Four Pillars of Investing presents a no-nonsense discussion of:
The art and science of mixing different asset classes into an effective blend The dangers of actively picking stocks, as opposed to investing in the whole market Behavioral finance and how state of mind can adversely affect decision making Reasons the mutual fund and brokerage industries, rather than your partners, are often your most direct competitors Strategies for managing all of your assets—savings, 401(k)s, home equity—as one portfolioInvesting is not a destination. It is a journey, and along the way are stockbrokers, journalists, and mutual fund companies whose interests are diametrically opposed to yours.
More relevant today than ever, The Four Pillars of Investing shows you how to determine your own financial direction and assemble an investment program with the sole goal of building long-term wealth for you and your family.
The next financial collapse will resemble nothing in history. . . . Deciding upon the best course to follow will require comprehending a minefield of risks, while poised at a crossroads, pondering the death of the dollar.
The U.S. dollar has been the global reserve currency since the end of World War II. If the dollar fails, the entire international monetary system will fail with it. But optimists have always said, in essence, that confidence in the dollar will never truly be shaken, no matter how high our national debt or how dysfunctional our government.
In the last few years, however, the risks have become too big to ignore. While Washington is gridlocked, our biggest rivals—China, Russia, and the oil-producing nations of the Middle East—are doing everything possible to end U.S. monetary hegemony. The potential results: Financial warfare. Deflation. Hyperinflation. Market collapse. Chaos.
James Rickards, the acclaimed author of Currency Wars, shows why money itself is now at risk and what we can all do to protect ourselves. He explains the power of converting unreliable investments into real wealth: gold, land, fine art, and other long-term stores of value.
The U.S. dollar has been the global reserve currency since the end of World War II. If the dollar fails, the entire international monetary system will fail with it. But optimists have always said, in essence, that confidence in the dollar will never truly be shaken, no matter how high our national debt or how dysfunctional our government.
In the last few years, however, the risks have become too big to ignore. While Washington is gridlocked, our biggest rivals—China, Russia, and the oil-producing nations of the Middle East—are doing everything possible to end U.S. monetary hegemony. The potential results: Financial warfare. Deflation. Hyperinflation. Market collapse. Chaos.
James Rickards, the acclaimed author of Currency Wars, shows why money itself is now at risk and what we can all do to protect ourselves. He explains the power of converting unreliable investments into real wealth: gold, land, fine art, and other long-term stores of value.
Selected as a Financial Times Best Book of 2013 Governments today in both Europe and the United States have succeeded in casting government spending as reckless wastefulness that has made the economy worse. In contrast, they have advanced a policy of draconian budget cuts--austerity--to solve the financial crisis. We are told that we have all lived beyond our means and now need to tighten our belts. This view conveniently forgets where all that debt came from. Not from an orgy of government spending, but as the direct result of bailing out, recapitalizing, and adding liquidity to the broken banking system. Through these actions private debt was rechristened as government debt while those responsible for generating it walked away scot free, placing the blame on the state, and the burden on the taxpayer. That burden now takes the form of a global turn to austerity, the policy of reducing domestic wages and prices to restore competitiveness and balance the budget. The problem, according to political economist Mark Blyth, is that austerity is a very dangerous idea. First of all, it doesn't work. As the past four years and countless historical examples from the last 100 years show, while it makes sense for any one state to try and cut its way to growth, it simply cannot work when all states try it simultaneously: all we do is shrink the economy. In the worst case, austerity policies worsened the Great Depression and created the conditions for seizures of power by the forces responsible for the Second World War: the Nazis and the Japanese military establishment. As Blyth amply demonstrates, the arguments for austerity are tenuous and the evidence thin. Rather than expanding growth and opportunity, the repeated revival of this dead economic idea has almost always led to low growth along with increases in wealth and income inequality. Austerity demolishes the conventional wisdom, marshaling an army of facts to demand that we austerity for what it is, and what it costs us.
#1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER
If you want to build a better future, you must believe in secrets.
The great secret of our time is that there are still uncharted frontiers to explore and new inventions to create. In Zero to One, legendary entrepreneur and investor Peter Thiel shows how we can find singular ways to create those new things.
Thiel begins with the contrarian premise that we live in an age of technological stagnation, even if we’re too distracted by shiny mobile devices to notice. Information technology has improved rapidly, but there is no reason why progress should be limited to computers or Silicon Valley. Progress can be achieved in any industry or area of business. It comes from the most important skill that every leader must master: learning to think for yourself.
Doing what someone else already knows how to do takes the world from 1 to n, adding more of something familiar. But when you do something new, you go from 0 to 1. The next Bill Gates will not build an operating system. The next Larry Page or Sergey Brin won’t make a search engine. Tomorrow’s champions will not win by competing ruthlessly in today’s marketplace. They will escape competition altogether, because their businesses will be unique.
Zero to One presents at once an optimistic view of the future of progress in America and a new way of thinking about innovation: it starts by learning to ask the questions that lead you to find value in unexpected places.
If you want to build a better future, you must believe in secrets.
The great secret of our time is that there are still uncharted frontiers to explore and new inventions to create. In Zero to One, legendary entrepreneur and investor Peter Thiel shows how we can find singular ways to create those new things.
Thiel begins with the contrarian premise that we live in an age of technological stagnation, even if we’re too distracted by shiny mobile devices to notice. Information technology has improved rapidly, but there is no reason why progress should be limited to computers or Silicon Valley. Progress can be achieved in any industry or area of business. It comes from the most important skill that every leader must master: learning to think for yourself.
Doing what someone else already knows how to do takes the world from 1 to n, adding more of something familiar. But when you do something new, you go from 0 to 1. The next Bill Gates will not build an operating system. The next Larry Page or Sergey Brin won’t make a search engine. Tomorrow’s champions will not win by competing ruthlessly in today’s marketplace. They will escape competition altogether, because their businesses will be unique.
Zero to One presents at once an optimistic view of the future of progress in America and a new way of thinking about innovation: it starts by learning to ask the questions that lead you to find value in unexpected places.
Pulitzer Prize winner Hedrick Smith’s new book is an extraordinary achievement, an eye-opening account of how, over the past four decades, the American Dream has been dismantled and we became two Americas.
In his bestselling The Russians, Smith took millions of readers inside the Soviet Union. In The Power Game, he took us inside Washington’s corridors of power. Now Smith takes us across America to show how seismic changes, sparked by a sequence of landmark political and economic decisions, have transformed America. As only a veteran reporter can, Smith fits the puzzle together, starting with Lewis Powell’s provocative memo that triggered a political rebellion that dramatically altered the landscape of power from then until today.
This is a book full of surprises and revelations—the accidental beginnings of the 401(k) plan, with disastrous economic consequences for many; the major policy changes that began under Jimmy Carter; how the New Economy disrupted America’s engine of shared prosperity, the “virtuous circle” of growth, and how America lost the title of “Land of Opportunity.” Smith documents the transfer of $6 trillion in middle-class wealth from homeowners to banks even before the housing boom went bust, and how the U.S. policy tilt favoring the rich is stunting America’s economic growth.
This book is essential reading for all of us who want to understand America today, or why average Americans are struggling to keep afloat. Smith reveals how pivotal laws and policies were altered while the public wasn’t looking, how Congress often ignores public opinion, why moderate politicians got shoved to the sidelines, and how Wall Street often wins politically by hiring over 1,400 former government officials as lobbyists.
Smith talks to a wide range of people, telling the stories of Americans high and low. From political leaders such as Bill Clinton, Newt Gingrich, and Martin Luther King, Jr., to CEOs such as Al Dunlap, Bob Galvin, and Andy Grove, to heartland Middle Americans such as airline mechanic Pat O’Neill, software systems manager Kristine Serrano, small businessman John Terboss, and subcontractor Eliseo Guardado, Smith puts a human face on how middle-class America and the American Dream have been undermined.
This magnificent work of history and reportage is filled with the penetrating insights, provocative discoveries, and the great empathy of a master journalist. Finally, Smith offers ideas for restoring America’s great promise and reclaiming the American Dream.
Praise for Who Stole the American Dream?
“[A] sweeping, authoritative examination of the last four decades of the American economic experience.”—The Huffington Post
“Some fine work has been done in explaining the mess we’re in. . . . But no book goes to the headwaters with the precision, detail and accessibility of Smith.”—The Seattle Times
“Sweeping in scope . . . [Smith] posits some steps that could alleviate the problems of the United States.”—USA Today
“Brilliant . . . [a] remarkably comprehensive and coherent analysis of and prescriptions for America’s contemporary economic malaise.”—Kirkus Reviews (starred review)
“Smith enlivens his narrative with portraits of the people caught up in events, humanizing complex subjects often rendered sterile in economic analysis. . . . The human face of the story is inseparable from the history.”—Reuters
In his bestselling The Russians, Smith took millions of readers inside the Soviet Union. In The Power Game, he took us inside Washington’s corridors of power. Now Smith takes us across America to show how seismic changes, sparked by a sequence of landmark political and economic decisions, have transformed America. As only a veteran reporter can, Smith fits the puzzle together, starting with Lewis Powell’s provocative memo that triggered a political rebellion that dramatically altered the landscape of power from then until today.
This is a book full of surprises and revelations—the accidental beginnings of the 401(k) plan, with disastrous economic consequences for many; the major policy changes that began under Jimmy Carter; how the New Economy disrupted America’s engine of shared prosperity, the “virtuous circle” of growth, and how America lost the title of “Land of Opportunity.” Smith documents the transfer of $6 trillion in middle-class wealth from homeowners to banks even before the housing boom went bust, and how the U.S. policy tilt favoring the rich is stunting America’s economic growth.
This book is essential reading for all of us who want to understand America today, or why average Americans are struggling to keep afloat. Smith reveals how pivotal laws and policies were altered while the public wasn’t looking, how Congress often ignores public opinion, why moderate politicians got shoved to the sidelines, and how Wall Street often wins politically by hiring over 1,400 former government officials as lobbyists.
Smith talks to a wide range of people, telling the stories of Americans high and low. From political leaders such as Bill Clinton, Newt Gingrich, and Martin Luther King, Jr., to CEOs such as Al Dunlap, Bob Galvin, and Andy Grove, to heartland Middle Americans such as airline mechanic Pat O’Neill, software systems manager Kristine Serrano, small businessman John Terboss, and subcontractor Eliseo Guardado, Smith puts a human face on how middle-class America and the American Dream have been undermined.
This magnificent work of history and reportage is filled with the penetrating insights, provocative discoveries, and the great empathy of a master journalist. Finally, Smith offers ideas for restoring America’s great promise and reclaiming the American Dream.
Praise for Who Stole the American Dream?
“[A] sweeping, authoritative examination of the last four decades of the American economic experience.”—The Huffington Post
“Some fine work has been done in explaining the mess we’re in. . . . But no book goes to the headwaters with the precision, detail and accessibility of Smith.”—The Seattle Times
“Sweeping in scope . . . [Smith] posits some steps that could alleviate the problems of the United States.”—USA Today
“Brilliant . . . [a] remarkably comprehensive and coherent analysis of and prescriptions for America’s contemporary economic malaise.”—Kirkus Reviews (starred review)
“Smith enlivens his narrative with portraits of the people caught up in events, humanizing complex subjects often rendered sterile in economic analysis. . . . The human face of the story is inseparable from the history.”—Reuters
From the author of Aftershock and The Work of Nations, his most important book to date—a myth-shattering breakdown of how the economic system that helped make America so strong is now failing us, and what it will take to fix it.
Perhaps no one is better acquainted with the intersection of economics and politics than Robert B. Reich, and now he reveals how power and influence have created a new American oligarchy, a shrinking middle class, and the greatest income inequality and wealth disparity in eighty years. He makes clear how centrally problematic our veneration of the “free market” is, and how it has masked the power of moneyed interests to tilt the market to their benefit.
Reich exposes the falsehoods that have been bolstered by the corruption of our democracy by huge corporations and the revolving door between Washington and Wall Street: that all workers are paid what they’re “worth,” that a higher minimum wage equals fewer jobs, and that corporations must serve shareholders before employees. He shows that the critical choices ahead are not about the size of government but about who government is for: that we must choose not between a free market and “big” government but between a market organized for broadly based prosperity and one designed to deliver the most gains to the top. Ever the pragmatist, ever the optimist, Reich sees hope for reversing our slide toward inequality and diminished opportunity when we shore up the countervailing power of everyone else.
Passionate yet practical, sweeping yet exactingly argued, Saving Capitalism is a revelatory indictment of our economic status quo and an empowering call to civic action.
From the Hardcover edition.
Perhaps no one is better acquainted with the intersection of economics and politics than Robert B. Reich, and now he reveals how power and influence have created a new American oligarchy, a shrinking middle class, and the greatest income inequality and wealth disparity in eighty years. He makes clear how centrally problematic our veneration of the “free market” is, and how it has masked the power of moneyed interests to tilt the market to their benefit.
Reich exposes the falsehoods that have been bolstered by the corruption of our democracy by huge corporations and the revolving door between Washington and Wall Street: that all workers are paid what they’re “worth,” that a higher minimum wage equals fewer jobs, and that corporations must serve shareholders before employees. He shows that the critical choices ahead are not about the size of government but about who government is for: that we must choose not between a free market and “big” government but between a market organized for broadly based prosperity and one designed to deliver the most gains to the top. Ever the pragmatist, ever the optimist, Reich sees hope for reversing our slide toward inequality and diminished opportunity when we shore up the countervailing power of everyone else.
Passionate yet practical, sweeping yet exactingly argued, Saving Capitalism is a revelatory indictment of our economic status quo and an empowering call to civic action.
From the Hardcover edition.
An unimpeachable classic work in political philosophy, intellectual and cultural history, and economics, The Road to Serfdom has inspired and infuriated politicians, scholars, and general readers for half a century. Originally published in 1944—when Eleanor Roosevelt supported the efforts of Stalin, and Albert Einstein subscribed lock, stock, and barrel to the socialist program—The Road to Serfdom was seen as heretical for its passionate warning against the dangers of state control over the means of production. For F. A. Hayek, the collectivist idea of empowering government with increasing economic control would lead not to a utopia but to the horrors of Nazi Germany and Fascist Italy.
First published by the University of Chicago Press on September 18, 1944, The Road to Serfdom garnered immediate, widespread attention. The first printing of 2,000 copies was exhausted instantly, and within six months more than 30,000 books were sold. In April 1945, Reader’s Digest published a condensed version of the book, and soon thereafter the Book-of-the-Month Club distributed this edition to more than 600,000 readers. A perennial best seller, the book has sold 400,000 copies in the United States alone and has been translated into more than twenty languages, along the way becoming one of the most important and influential books of the century.
With this new edition, The Road to Serfdom takes its place in the series The Collected Works of F. A. Hayek. The volume includes a foreword by series editor and leading Hayek scholar Bruce Caldwell explaining the book's origins and publishing history and assessing common misinterpretations of Hayek's thought. Caldwell has also standardized and corrected Hayek's references and added helpful new explanatory notes. Supplemented with an appendix of related materials ranging from prepublication reports on the initial manuscript to forewords to earlier editions by John Chamberlain, Milton Friedman, and Hayek himself, this new edition of The Road to Serfdom will be the definitive version of Hayek's enduring masterwork.
First published by the University of Chicago Press on September 18, 1944, The Road to Serfdom garnered immediate, widespread attention. The first printing of 2,000 copies was exhausted instantly, and within six months more than 30,000 books were sold. In April 1945, Reader’s Digest published a condensed version of the book, and soon thereafter the Book-of-the-Month Club distributed this edition to more than 600,000 readers. A perennial best seller, the book has sold 400,000 copies in the United States alone and has been translated into more than twenty languages, along the way becoming one of the most important and influential books of the century.
With this new edition, The Road to Serfdom takes its place in the series The Collected Works of F. A. Hayek. The volume includes a foreword by series editor and leading Hayek scholar Bruce Caldwell explaining the book's origins and publishing history and assessing common misinterpretations of Hayek's thought. Caldwell has also standardized and corrected Hayek's references and added helpful new explanatory notes. Supplemented with an appendix of related materials ranging from prepublication reports on the initial manuscript to forewords to earlier editions by John Chamberlain, Milton Friedman, and Hayek himself, this new edition of The Road to Serfdom will be the definitive version of Hayek's enduring masterwork.
(Note: Updated in 2015 with numerous changes, including discussion of crypto-currencies like Bitcoin. Also available at http://www.createspace.com/3365433 ) Pop quiz! Where does money come from? Who makes it? What is inflation? What is the Federal Reserve? Why is America so buried in debt? Unsure how to answer such questions? Then you really can't afford to miss this book. The fact is that while most people waste away their lives trying to get money, very few people actually know what money is in the modern world. And what money is in the modern world is nothing but debt. Through the help of the accessible style of an illustrated prose comic book, DISSOLVING DOLLARS will take you on an intriguing, eye-opening journey through American history, banking, and modern money. You'll discover the scandalous truth about inflation, debt, interest, the Federal Reserve, banks, taxation, bailouts, economic growth, the creation of money, and much more. You'll also discover alternatives to the current mess. Overall, DISSOLVING DOLLARS is an excellent book for anyone wanting an easy entry point to understanding the true nature of modern money. So get the inside story today. Your dollars depend on it!
The most important book yet from the author of the international bestseller The Shock Doctrine, a brilliant explanation of why the climate crisis challenges us to abandon the core “free market” ideology of our time, restructure the global economy, and remake our political systems.
In short, either we embrace radical change ourselves or radical changes will be visited upon our physical world. The status quo is no longer an option.
In This Changes Everything Naomi Klein argues that climate change isn’t just another issue to be neatly filed between taxes and health care. It’s an alarm that calls us to fix an economic system that is already failing us in many ways. Klein meticulously builds the case for how massively reducing our greenhouse emissions is our best chance to simultaneously reduce gaping inequalities, re-imagine our broken democracies, and rebuild our gutted local economies. She exposes the ideological desperation of the climate-change deniers, the messianic delusions of the would-be geoengineers, and the tragic defeatism of too many mainstream green initiatives. And she demonstrates precisely why the market has not—and cannot—fix the climate crisis but will instead make things worse, with ever more extreme and ecologically damaging extraction methods, accompanied by rampant disaster capitalism.
Klein argues that the changes to our relationship with nature and one another that are required to respond to the climate crisis humanely should not be viewed as grim penance, but rather as a kind of gift—a catalyst to transform broken economic and cultural priorities and to heal long-festering historical wounds. And she documents the inspiring movements that have already begun this process: communities that are not just refusing to be sites of further fossil fuel extraction but are building the next, regeneration-based economies right now.
Can we pull off these changes in time? Nothing is certain. Nothing except that climate change changes everything. And for a very brief time, the nature of that change is still up to us.
In short, either we embrace radical change ourselves or radical changes will be visited upon our physical world. The status quo is no longer an option.
In This Changes Everything Naomi Klein argues that climate change isn’t just another issue to be neatly filed between taxes and health care. It’s an alarm that calls us to fix an economic system that is already failing us in many ways. Klein meticulously builds the case for how massively reducing our greenhouse emissions is our best chance to simultaneously reduce gaping inequalities, re-imagine our broken democracies, and rebuild our gutted local economies. She exposes the ideological desperation of the climate-change deniers, the messianic delusions of the would-be geoengineers, and the tragic defeatism of too many mainstream green initiatives. And she demonstrates precisely why the market has not—and cannot—fix the climate crisis but will instead make things worse, with ever more extreme and ecologically damaging extraction methods, accompanied by rampant disaster capitalism.
Klein argues that the changes to our relationship with nature and one another that are required to respond to the climate crisis humanely should not be viewed as grim penance, but rather as a kind of gift—a catalyst to transform broken economic and cultural priorities and to heal long-festering historical wounds. And she documents the inspiring movements that have already begun this process: communities that are not just refusing to be sites of further fossil fuel extraction but are building the next, regeneration-based economies right now.
Can we pull off these changes in time? Nothing is certain. Nothing except that climate change changes everything. And for a very brief time, the nature of that change is still up to us.
Longlisted for the 2012 Financial Times and Goldman Sachs Business Book of the Year Award
For the past forty years western economies have splurged on debt. Now, as the reality dawns that many debts cannot be repaid, we find ourselves again in crisis. But the oncoming defaults have a time-worn place in our economic history. As with the crises in the 1930s and 1970s, governments will fall, currencies will lose their value, and new systems will emerge. Just as Britain set the terms of the international system in the nineteenth century, and America in the twentieth century, a new system will be set by today's creditors in China and the Middle East. In the process, rich will be pitted against poor, young against old, public sector workers against taxpayers and one country against another.
For the past forty years western economies have splurged on debt. Now, as the reality dawns that many debts cannot be repaid, we find ourselves again in crisis. But the oncoming defaults have a time-worn place in our economic history. As with the crises in the 1930s and 1970s, governments will fall, currencies will lose their value, and new systems will emerge. Just as Britain set the terms of the international system in the nineteenth century, and America in the twentieth century, a new system will be set by today's creditors in China and the Middle East. In the process, rich will be pitted against poor, young against old, public sector workers against taxpayers and one country against another.
In Paper Promises, Economist columnist Philip Coggan helps us to understand the origins of this mess and how it will affect the new global economy by explaining how our attitudes towards debt have changed throughout history, and how they may be about to change again.
“It is impossible to grasp the meaning of the idea of sound money if one does not realize that it was devised as an instrument for the protection of civil liberties against despotic inroads on the part of governments.” – from The Theory of Money and Credit
Originally published in 1912, Ludwig von Mises’s The Theory of Money and Credit remains today one of economic theory’s most influential and controversial treatises. Von Mises’s examination into monetary theory changed forever the world of economic thought when he successfully integrated “macroeconomics” into “microeconomics” —previously deemed an impossible task —as well as offering explanations into the origin, value and future of money.
One hundred years later, von Mises and the Austrian school of economic theory are still fiercely debated by world economists in their search for the solution to America’s current financial crisis. His theorems continue to inspire politicians and market experts who aim to raise up the common man and reduce the financial power of governments. In a preface added in 1952, von Mises urges the people of the world to see economic truth:
“The great inflations of our age are not acts of God. They are man-made or, to say it bluntly, government-made. They are the off-shoots of doctrines that ascribe to governments the magic power of creating wealth out of nothing and of making people happy by raising the ‘national income.’”
“The best book on money ever written.” —Murray Rothbard, economist and historian
“The greatest economist of the twentieth century.” —Sandeep Jaitly, economist
Originally published in 1912, Ludwig von Mises’s The Theory of Money and Credit remains today one of economic theory’s most influential and controversial treatises. Von Mises’s examination into monetary theory changed forever the world of economic thought when he successfully integrated “macroeconomics” into “microeconomics” —previously deemed an impossible task —as well as offering explanations into the origin, value and future of money.
One hundred years later, von Mises and the Austrian school of economic theory are still fiercely debated by world economists in their search for the solution to America’s current financial crisis. His theorems continue to inspire politicians and market experts who aim to raise up the common man and reduce the financial power of governments. In a preface added in 1952, von Mises urges the people of the world to see economic truth:
“The great inflations of our age are not acts of God. They are man-made or, to say it bluntly, government-made. They are the off-shoots of doctrines that ascribe to governments the magic power of creating wealth out of nothing and of making people happy by raising the ‘national income.’”
“The best book on money ever written.” —Murray Rothbard, economist and historian
“The greatest economist of the twentieth century.” —Sandeep Jaitly, economist