“With relatively little effort, you can design and assemble an investment portfolio that, because of its wide diversification and minimal expenses, will prove superior to the most professionally managed accounts. Great intelligence and good luck are not required.”
William Bernstein’s commonsense approach to portfolio construction has served investors well during the past turbulent decade—and it’s what made The Four Pillars of Investing an instant classic when it was first published nearly a decade ago.
This down-to-earth book lays out in easy-to-understand prose the four essential topics that every investor must master: the relationship of risk and reward, the history of the market, the psychology of the investor and the market, and the folly of taking financial advice from investment salespeople.
Bernstein pulls back the curtain to reveal what really goes on in today’s financial industry as he outlines a simple program for building wealth while controlling risk. Straightforward in its presentation and generous in its real-life examples, The Four Pillars of Investing presents a no-nonsense discussion of:The art and science of mixing different asset classes into an effective blend The dangers of actively picking stocks, as opposed to investing in the whole market Behavioral finance and how state of mind can adversely affect decision making Reasons the mutual fund and brokerage industries, rather than your partners, are often your most direct competitors Strategies for managing all of your assets—savings, 401(k)s, home equity—as one portfolio
Investing is not a destination. It is a journey, and along the way are stockbrokers, journalists, and mutual fund companies whose interests are diametrically opposed to yours.
More relevant today than ever, The Four Pillars of Investing shows you how to determine your own financial direction and assemble an investment program with the sole goal of building long-term wealth for you and your family.
The U.S. dollar has been the global reserve currency since the end of World War II. If the dollar fails, the entire international monetary system will fail with it. But optimists have always said, in essence, that confidence in the dollar will never truly be shaken, no matter how high our national debt or how dysfunctional our government.
In the last few years, however, the risks have become too big to ignore. While Washington is gridlocked, our biggest rivals—China, Russia, and the oil-producing nations of the Middle East—are doing everything possible to end U.S. monetary hegemony. The potential results: Financial warfare. Deflation. Hyperinflation. Market collapse. Chaos.
James Rickards, the acclaimed author of Currency Wars, shows why money itself is now at risk and what we can all do to protect ourselves. He explains the power of converting unreliable investments into real wealth: gold, land, fine art, and other long-term stores of value.
For the past forty years western economies have splurged on debt. Now, as the reality dawns that many debts cannot be repaid, we find ourselves again in crisis. But the oncoming defaults have a time-worn place in our economic history. As with the crises in the 1930s and 1970s, governments will fall, currencies will lose their value, and new systems will emerge. Just as Britain set the terms of the international system in the nineteenth century, and America in the twentieth century, a new system will be set by today's creditors in China and the Middle East. In the process, rich will be pitted against poor, young against old, public sector workers against taxpayers and one country against another.
In Paper Promises, Economist columnist Philip Coggan helps us to understand the origins of this mess and how it will affect the new global economy by explaining how our attitudes towards debt have changed throughout history, and how they may be about to change again.
Originally published in 1912, Ludwig von Mises’s The Theory of Money and Credit remains today one of economic theory’s most influential and controversial treatises. Von Mises’s examination into monetary theory changed forever the world of economic thought when he successfully integrated “macroeconomics” into “microeconomics” —previously deemed an impossible task —as well as offering explanations into the origin, value and future of money.
One hundred years later, von Mises and the Austrian school of economic theory are still fiercely debated by world economists in their search for the solution to America’s current financial crisis. His theorems continue to inspire politicians and market experts who aim to raise up the common man and reduce the financial power of governments. In a preface added in 1952, von Mises urges the people of the world to see economic truth:
“The great inflations of our age are not acts of God. They are man-made or, to say it bluntly, government-made. They are the off-shoots of doctrines that ascribe to governments the magic power of creating wealth out of nothing and of making people happy by raising the ‘national income.’”
“The best book on money ever written.” —Murray Rothbard, economist and historian
“The greatest economist of the twentieth century.” —Sandeep Jaitly, economist
Praise for The Birth of Plenty:
"Bill Bernstein has given us a compact and immensely readable economic, political, military, and institutional history of our civilization that is a tour de force. Put everything else down. Take a deep breath. Open The Birth of Plenty. And prepare to be amazed.
--John C. Bogle, Founder and Former CEO, The Vanguard Group
"The Birth of Plenty is a brilliantly written, whirlwind account of how the modern world was formed. It is a hugely enjoyable read, full of vigor and liveliness, and a book every American should possess--at least those who treasure our abundant life and care about our future."
--William Schultheis, Author, The Coffeehouse Investor
"Put simply, this is my favorite economic history book. It gathers what is interesting about economic history to draw important lessons."
--Ed Tower, Professor of Economics, Duke University
"William Bernstein scrutinizes the research literature, distills it with originality and insight, then shares the results with classic Bernstein clarity and wit. Ideologues on both political wings should prepare to have their assumptions challenged."
--Bernard Sherman, Host, Talk of Iowa - Focus on Finance radio show
A daring look at the development of human prosperity--how it was created, and where it's headed
In the breakthrough spirit of Against the Gods, William Bernstein's The Birth of Plenty has the topical uniqueness and storytelling panache to literally create its own category and reader. Based upon the premise that mankind experienced virtually zero economic growth from the dawn of time until 1820, this provocative, bigpicture book identifies the four conditions necessary for sustained economic progress--property rights, scientific rationalism, capital markets, and communications and transportation technology-- and then analyzes their gradual appearance and impact throughout every corner of the globe. Filled with bestselling author William Bernstein's trademark meticulous research and page-turning writing style, The Birth of Plenty explores:Where the world economy could be headed next Implications of the book's thesis for today's society How the absence of one or more of the conditions continues to threaten beleaguered regions
Rare is the book that proposes an entirely new premise, validates that premise with inarguable research and analysis, and then explains beyond question both the relevance and the implications of its premise to the reader and the world at large. The Birth of Plenty is just such a book. From its unique, topical subject matter to its tremendous review potential, this insightful book will be one of the most talked-about volumes of the publishing season.
In six concise chapters, Financial Fiasco tells the complex story of the crisis, showing how monetary policy, housing policy, and financial innovations combined to create financial catastrophe. The final two chapters describe the government's mismanagement of the crisis and how we are now dangerously repeating many of the very same mistakes that caused it. An understanding of the roots of the financial crisis is crucial for every American who has felt its effects - and would like to prevent the same disaster from happening again. Financial Fiasco provides that understanding, with great insight, clarity, and wit.
Just as important, the book serves as a profound warning against pursuing the wrong solutions. "After government authorities had helped create the worst financial crisis in generations, the climate of ideas has now shifted dramatically in the direction of bigger and more active government," Norberg writes. Financial Fiasco is the perfect antidote to those ideas, a cautionary tale on how to stop confusing the disease with the cure.
The numbers are simple. What’s complicated is what we do with money. We use money to soothe our feelings and buy respect, to show how much we care or how little. We don’t simply earn, save, and spend money: we flirt with it, crave it, and scorn it; we punish and reward ourselves with it.
Without realizing it, we give money meaning it doesn’t really have—what former psychiatrist and current business coach David Krueger calls our “money story.” And in the process of playing out that money story, we often sacrifice the most important things in our life: our health, freedom, relationships, and happiness.
What is your money story?Do you consistently spend more than you have? Do you follow the herd in your investments—even though you know the herd is usually wrong? Have you neglected to save for the future, even when you have the means? Do you feel controlled or shackled by debt? Is your money somehow never “enough”? Is money, or the lack of it, always on your mind?
The Secret Language of Money is a guided tour to the subconscious meanings we give money, the conflicted ways our braindeals with money, the reasons we tend to make the same money mistakes over and over—and most importantly, how you can change all that.
A brilliant blend of cutting-edge science and real-world application, The Secret Language of Money helps you rewrite your money story and find that elusive balance of wealth, health, and joy we all seek.
An Economist Best Book of the Year, 2015
A Bloomberg Best Book of the Year, 2015
The finance sector of Western economies is too large and attracts too many of the smartest college graduates. Financialization over the past three decades has created a structure that lacks resilience and supports absurd volumes of trading. The finance sector devotes too little attention to the search for new investment opportunities and the stewardship of existing ones, and far too much to secondary-market dealing in existing assets. Regulation has contributed more to the problems than the solutions.
Why? What is finance for? John Kay, with wide practical and academic experience in the world of finance, understands the operation of the financial sector better than most. He believes in good banks and effective asset managers, but good banks and effective asset managers are not what he sees.
In a dazzling and revelatory tour of the financial world as it has emerged from the wreckage of the 2008 crisis, Kay does not flinch in his criticism: we do need some of the things that Citigroup and Goldman Sachs do, but we do not need Citigroup and Goldman to do them. And many of the things done by Citigroup and Goldman do not need to be done at all. The finance sector needs to be reminded of its primary purpose: to manage other people's money for the benefit of businesses and households. It is an aberration when the some of the finest mathematical and scientific minds are tasked with devising algorithms for the sole purpose of exploiting the weakness of other algorithms for computerized trading in securities. To travel further down that road leads to ruin.
What is money, and how does it work? In this tour de force of political, cultural and economic history, Felix Martin challenges nothing less than our conventional understanding of money. He describes how the Western idea of money emerged from interactions between Mesopotamia and ancient Greece and was shaped over the centuries by tensions between sovereigns and the emerging middle classes. He explores the extraordinary diversity of the world’s monetary systems, from the Pacific island of Yap, where value was once measured by immovable stones, to the currency of today that exists solely on globally connected computer screens. Martin shows that money has always been a deeply political instrument, and that it is our failure to remember this that led to the crisis in our financial system and so to the Great Recession. He concludes with practical solutions to our current pressing, money-based problems.
Money skips nimbly among such far-ranging topics as John Locke’s disastrous excursion into economic policy, Montesquieu’s faith in finance to discipline the power of kings, the social organization of ancient Sparta and the Soviet Union’s ill-fated attempt to abolish money and banking altogether. Throughout, Martin makes vivid sense of a chaotic and sometimes incoherent system—the everyday currency that we all share—in the clearest and most stimulating terms. This is a magisterial work of history and economics, with profound implications for the world today.
This book will show you how to 'Have Your
Cake and Eat It'. In other words, you will learn how to buy what you need
without actually spending your own money.
Special qualifications or expert knowledge
is not required and you won’t need a salary increase. Armed with nothing but
the information contained in this book, you can start today with your current
income and take your first step towards financial freedom.
Take the 'Financial Aptitude Test' at the
end of the book and find out if you have the mentality of a Rich, Poor or
Foolish person, then begin at once to strengthen your weak points by re-reading
the relevant chapters. This book will soon become your trusted mentor and the
best gift that you could ever give to your friends and family.
Topics covered include exchange rate regimes, contagion (transmission of currency crises across countries), the current account of the balance of payments, the role of private sector investors and of speculators, the reaction of the official sector (including the multilaterals), capital controls, bank supervision and weaknesses, and the roles of cronyism, corruption, and large players (including hedge funds).
Ably balancing detailed case studies, cross-country comparisons, and theoretical concerns, this book will make a major contribution to ongoing efforts to understand and prevent international currency crises.
When Governor Meyer was appointed by President Clinton to serve on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in 1996, the United States was entering one of the most prosperous periods in its history. It was the time of "irrational exuberance" and the fabled New Economy. Soon, however, the economy was tested by the Asian financial crisis, the Russian default and devaluation, the collapse of Long-Term Capital Management, the bursting of America's stock bubble, and the terrorist attacks of 9/11.
In what amounts to a definitive playbook of monetary policy, Meyer now relives the Fed's closed-door debates -- debates that questioned how monetary policy should adapt to the possibility of a New Economy, how the Fed should respond to soaring equity prices, and whether the Fed should broker the controversial private sector bailout of LTCM, among other issues. Meyer deftly weaves these issues with firsthand stories about the personalities involved, from Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan to the various staffers, governors, politicians, and reporters that populate the world of the Fed.
Since the end of his term, Meyer has continued to watch the Fed and the world economy. He believes that we are witnessing a repetition of some of the events of the remarkable 1990s -- including a further acceleration in productivity and perhaps another bull market. History does not repeat itself, yet Meyer shows us how the lessons learned yesterday may help the Fed shape policy today.
그러나 아름답게 쓰여지는 돈은 사람을 살리고, 세우며, 세상에 감동을 주는 귀한 것이 될 수 있다. 그리스도인에게 있어서 믿음과 돈, 이 둘의 관계는 참으로 복잡하다. 재물이 있는 곳에 우리 마음이 간다.
현재, 우리는 미래의 삶에 대한 불안감이 증폭된 시대에 살아가지만, 돈도 섬기지 않고, 마음도 빼앗기지 않으며, 살아갈 수 있는 비결이 있다. 언제, 어디서든지 말씀을 읽고 묵상할 수 있는 스마트한 시대를 살아간다. 살아있는 말씀의 능력을 체험할 수 있는 최적의 환경이다.
사람이 하나님에 대한 성경적인 믿음을 갖게 되면, 우리네 인생을 좌지우지하는 재물로부터 자유로울 수 있을까? 예수님께서 말씀하셨다. “너희는 하나님과 재물을 겸하여 섬길 수 없느니라”(누가복음 16:13) 그리스도인의 삶의 질은 믿음과 하나님의 말씀인 성경의 가르침에 대한 실천적인 이해에 달려 있다.
돈(재물)과 관련된 인생의 문제를 찾고자 하는 이들에게 바른 방향을 줄 것이다.
특히 재정상담가, 금융업, 보험업에 종사하는 사람들에게 바른 신앙적 가치를 잡아주는 지침서가 될것이다.
'24가지 십일조에 관한 질문과 답변'은 현대 신앙인들이 겪는 돈과 하나님 사이에 갈등과 고민에 대한 답을 실었다.
Supported by interviews with leading central bankers from around the world, and informed by the latest academic research, Banking on the Future considers such current issues as the place of asset prices and credit growth in anti-inflation policy, the appropriate role for central banks in banking supervision, the ways in which central banks provide liquidity to markets, the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of central banks, the culture and individuals working in these institutions, as well as the particular issues facing emerging markets and Islamic finance. Howard Davies and David Green set out detailed policy recommendations, including a reformulation of monetary policy, better metrics for financial stability, closer links with regulators, and a stronger emphasis on international cooperation.
Exploring a crucial sector of the global economic system, Banking on the Future offers new ideas for restoring financial strength to the foundations of central banking.
Author Philip Ryken writes, “In witnessing Solomon’s moral triumphs and sinful failures we learn how to live more wisely. By the grace of God, we may avoid a tragic downfall of our own and learn how to use money, sex, and power for the glory of God.”
Tracing Solomon’s life from coronation to burial—and from godly devotion to self-serving excess—Ryken shows readers how to avoid similar downfalls and seek God’s glory amid earthly temptations. These thirteen chapters are pastoral, rich in application, and biblically faithful. This overview of Solomon’s life also includes a study guide, making it a great resource for both personal and group use.
In this excellent guide, now fully revised and updated, leading financial journalist Philip Coggan cuts through the headlines, the scandals and the jargon to explain the nuts and bolts of the financial system.
What causes the pound to rise or interest rates to fall? Which are the institutions that really matter? Why is it we need the Money Machine - and what happens when it crashes? Coggan provides clear and concise answers and shows why we should all be more familiar with a system we so intimately depend upon.
Little has been written about the instability of the Euro, but it’s a very real threat to investors worldwide, as well as to the global economy. In The Fall of the Euro, the Global Head of Currency Strategy at Nomura describes why the breakup of the Eurozone remains a real risk and outlines investment strategies for the most likely scenarios.
Over the last two years, swings in global asset markets have been increasingly driven by developments in Europe. This is something new: in the past, Europe was one of the most stable parts of the global economy, and its typically minor economic fluctuations would have little bearing on US equity markets. In the new environment of European turbulence, Europe's economic and political developments will be a persistent source of shocks for global financial markets. If the path ahead involves a disorderly breakup of the Eurozone, the instability to come will be much more intense than what we have seen to date. As an investor, you need a roadmap. This book provides it.
Jens Nordvig is Managing Director, Head of Fixed Income Research, Americas and Global Head of Currency Strategy at Nomura, the global investment bank. Previously, Nordvig worked as a Senior Currency Strategist for investment management firm Bridgewater Associates, the largest hedge fund in the world.
America: be warned.
A new wave of financial reformers has infiltrated our public institutions at both the state and national levels. A growing army of self-proclaimed activists, philanthropists, and politicians has infiltrated not only the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, but the FDIC, the Treasury, and other regulatory agencies. This explosive new book from New York Times bestselling author Jay W. Richards reveals the shocking truth about:
This startling account walks you through America’s government and financial industry from the inside out—exposing the surprising history, the colorful characters, and the earthshaking events that got us where we are today.
You’ll meet the political ideologues and extremists whose good intentions paved the road to financial hell. You’ll witness the “blame game” in action, as politicians and the media use the 2008 meltdown as an excuse to further their own agendas. You’ll learn about the terrible consequences that sweeping government reforms have on small businesses and other industries that had nothing to do with the financial crisis.
Finally, you’ll find a special resource section of positive actions and ideas to help you stand up and speak out for your rights.
America is at a crossroads. It is time for us to choose between stricter government control that limits our freedom or a more open free market that is the key to prosperity. This book could make all the difference.
FREE ENTERPRISE IS UNDER ATTACK. THIS BOOK IS AMERICA’S WAKE-UP CALL.
“Big government statists have created a destructive myth that deregulation and greed caused the financial crisis. Richards demonstrates that altruistic government policies supported by crony socialists were the primary cause of the crisis. It is important to debunk the statist myth, because it has been the justification for extremely harmful public policies.”
John Allison, President and CEO, Cato Institute, and New York Times bestselling author of The Financial Crisis and the Free Market Cure
“Infiltrated strips the pretense of compassion from ‘community action’ and rips away the patina of idealism from housing ‘fairness’ hustles. . . . While naming the names and crimes of housing ‘charity’ scammers, Richards expounds an inspiring liberation philosophy of true economic compassion and win-win economic growth for all.”
George Gilder, author of Knowledge and Power
“Fearless and brilliant. Dr. Richards boldly addresses important consumer lending issues in a detailed and exhaustive manner. You may not like his conclusions, but to detractors I say prove him wrong. The absolute best book of its kind.”
Harold A. Black, PhD, Smith Professor of Finance (Emeritus), University of Tennessee
“If you want to know why the popular wisdom about the causes and effects of the financial crisis is mostly wrong, and how such myths will help facilitate similar crises in the future, Jay Richards’s Infiltrated is an eye-opener.”
Samuel Gregg, author of Becoming Europe
Table of Contents
The Digital Coin Revolution
Make Money Online
Muhammad Naveed & John Davidson
What Cryptocurrency Really Is
An Introduction to Cryptocurrency
What is the Function of this Digital Coin?
Forms of Cryptocurrency
Advantages and Key Features of Cryptocurrency:
Some Drawbacks of the Cryptocurrency
Cryptocurrency Are Being Accepted by More Websites Everyday
Places Where Cryptocurrency is Accepted and the Incentives it Gives to Involved Persons
Methods to Generate Money through Cryptocurrency:
Comparison of the Two Methods, Investing and Mining:
Research before Making the Plunge
Great Potential for Growth:
How to Get Your Very First Cryptocurrencies
Cryptocurrency Still Has a Long Way to Go
What’s a Mining?
Economics of Mining
How Newbies Should Mine for Cryptocurrency
Is This the Right Time for BTC Mining?
Profitability of Mining
Network Mining Limits and Market Caps
Legitimate Economic Activity with Cryptocurrency
Underground Economic Activity with Cryptocurrency
In this book learn what the Digital Currency Revolution is all about. Learn how you can set up your own digital vault and start earning your own digital cash on your very own computer. Learn how to mine digital currency.
What Cryptocurrency Really Is.
For the purpose of making easier transactions, the world, throughout history, has assigned pressed coins in old times to trade products and in present, printed currency was invented. However, this has increased the number of countries that are getting trapped into debt or for sure are facing difficulties in meeting the needs of their fiscal targets in modern era’s functions of mass Demand and Supply on an international level. The trend towards a financial society that is more centralized has changed towards seeking decentralized money that could sidestep regulations of a specific nation towards the needs of international market.
It is a system of payment that eliminates the requirement of a financial intermediary between two parties wanting to transmit money using the internet. It is a less costly method and at times, it’s totally free. The transaction is kept unnamed as well. A man named Satoshi Nakamoto invented a new type of digital currency that could use the method of Peer-to-Peer (P2P) System, in 2008. This network itself is commonly referred as individual’s network that is decentralized and these individuals don’t need to know each other essentially. This system would allow the network that is decentralized, to work mutually cracking Algorithms by using high-powered rearranged Graphics Cards probably cracking a block that yielded the reward of cryptocurrency. Here Satoshi wanted to be the first one to crack and collect the profits of the famous "Genesis Block" in 2009. After his hard work and huge reward, a number of enthusiasts of computer hardware are attracted to it and are seeking to obtain a piece from this newly discovered digital gold pit for themselves.
It seems like pretty much everybody – homeowners, students, those who are ill and without health insurance, and, of course, credit card holders – is up to their neck in debt that can never be repaid. 77% of US households are seriously indebted and one in seven Americans has been pursued by debt collectors. The major banks are bigger and more profitable than before the 2008 crash, and legislators are all but powerless to bring them to heel.
In this forceful, eye-opening survey, Andrew Ross contends that we are in the cruel grip of a creditocracy – where the finance industry commandeers our elected governments and where the citizenry have to take out loans to meet their basic needs. The implications of mass indebtedness for any democracy are profound, and history shows that whenever a creditor class becomes as powerful as Wall Street, the result has been debt bondage for the bulk of the population.
Following in the ancient tradition of the jubilee, activists have had some success in repudiating the debts of developing countries. The time is ripe, Ross argues, for a debtors’ movement to use the same kinds of moral and legal arguments to bring relief to household debtors in the North. After examining the varieties of lending that have contributed to the crisis, Ross suggests ways of lifting the burden of illegitimate debts from our backs. Just as important, Creditocracy outlines the kind of alternative economy we need to replace a predatory debt-money system that only benefits the 1%.
Gold became synonymous with financial dependability, and following the devastating chaos of World War I, the gold standard came to express the order of the free market system. Warfare in pursuit of wealth required borrowing—a quickly compulsive dependency for many governments. And when people lost confidence in the promissory notes and paper currencies issued during wartime, governments again turned to gold.
In this captivating historical study, Kwarteng exposes a pattern of war-waging and financial debt—bedmates like April and taxes that go back hundreds of years, from the French Revolution to the emergence of modern-day China. His evidence is as rich and colorful as it is sweeping. And it starts and ends with gold.
This book focuses on imitating analyses that are based on variance by replacing variance with the GMD and its variants. In this way, the text showcases how almost everything that can be done with the variance as a measure of variability, can be replicated by using Gini. Beyond this, there are marked benefits to utilizing Gini as opposed to other methods. One of the advantages of using Gini methodology is that it provides a unified system that enables the user to learn about various aspects of the underlying distribution. It also provides a systematic method and a unified terminology.
Using Gini methodology can reduce the risk of imposing assumptions that are not supported by the data on the model. With these benefits in mind the text uses the covariance-based approach, though applications to other approaches are mentioned as well.
Now, with Think Like a Freak, Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner have written their most revolutionary book yet. With their trademark blend of captivating storytelling and unconventional analysis, they take us inside their thought process and teach us all to think a bit more productively, more creatively, more rationally—to think, that is, like a Freak.
Levitt and Dubner offer a blueprint for an entirely new way to solve problems, whether your interest lies in minor lifehacks or major global reforms. As always, no topic is off-limits. They range from business to philanthropy to sports to politics, all with the goal of retraining your brain. Along the way, you’ll learn the secrets of a Japanese hot-dog-eating champion, the reason an Australian doctor swallowed a batch of dangerous bacteria, and why Nigerian e-mail scammers make a point of saying they’re from Nigeria.
Some of the steps toward thinking like a Freak:First, put away your moral compass—because it’s hard to see a problem clearly if you’ve already decided what to do about it. Learn to say “I don’t know”—for until you can admit what you don’t yet know, it’s virtually impossible to learn what you need to. Think like a child—because you’ll come up with better ideas and ask better questions. Take a master class in incentives—because for better or worse, incentives rule our world. Learn to persuade people who don’t want to be persuaded—because being right is rarely enough to carry the day. Learn to appreciate the upside of quitting—because you can’t solve tomorrow’s problem if you aren’t willing to abandon today’s dud.
Levitt and Dubner plainly see the world like no one else. Now you can too. Never before have such iconoclastic thinkers been so revealing—and so much fun to read.
New York Times Bestseller
“Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”
—New York Times Book Review
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism."
—New York Review of Books
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
From the Trade Paperback edition.
A provocative and lively exploration of the increasingly important world of macroeconomics, by the author of the bestselling The Undercover Economist.
Thanks to the worldwide financial upheaval, economics is no longer a topic we can ignore. From politicians to hedge fund managers to middle-class IRA holders, everyone must pay attention to how and why the global economy works the way it does.
Enter Financial Times columnist and bestselling author Tim Harford. In this new book that demystifies macroeconomics, Harford strips away the spin, the hype, and the jargon to reveal the truth about how the world’s economy actually works. With the wit of a raconteur and the clear grasp of an expert, Harford explains what’s really happening beyond today’s headlines, why all of us should care, and what we can do about it to understand it better.
Since his documentary, Fat, Sick & Nearly Dead, was released in 2010 and became a worldwide sensation, Joe Cross has become a tireless advocate for the power of juicing. The Reboot with Joe Juice Diet brings us of the plan that allowed him to overcome obesity, poor health, and bad habits, and presents success stories from others whose lives he’s touched.
Joe—who managed to lose one hundred pounds and discontinue all his medication by following his own plan—walks you through his life before juicing, sharing his self-defeating attitude toward food and fitness, and brings you along on his journey from obesity and disease to fitness, a clean bill of health, and the clarity of physical wellness.
In addition to sharing Joe’s inspirational story, The Reboot with Joe Juice Diet gives readers all the tools they need to embark on their own journey to health and wellness, including inspiration and encouragement, recipes, and diet plans.
First published by the University of Chicago Press on September 18, 1944, The Road to Serfdom garnered immediate, widespread attention. The first printing of 2,000 copies was exhausted instantly, and within six months more than 30,000 books were sold. In April 1945, Reader’s Digest published a condensed version of the book, and soon thereafter the Book-of-the-Month Club distributed this edition to more than 600,000 readers. A perennial best seller, the book has sold 400,000 copies in the United States alone and has been translated into more than twenty languages, along the way becoming one of the most important and influential books of the century.
With this new edition, The Road to Serfdom takes its place in the series The Collected Works of F. A. Hayek. The volume includes a foreword by series editor and leading Hayek scholar Bruce Caldwell explaining the book's origins and publishing history and assessing common misinterpretations of Hayek's thought. Caldwell has also standardized and corrected Hayek's references and added helpful new explanatory notes. Supplemented with an appendix of related materials ranging from prepublication reports on the initial manuscript to forewords to earlier editions by John Chamberlain, Milton Friedman, and Hayek himself, this new edition of The Road to Serfdom will be the definitive version of Hayek's enduring masterwork.