New York Times Bestseller
“Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”
—New York Times Book Review
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism."
—New York Review of Books
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
From the Trade Paperback edition.
This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.
And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.
These may not sound like typical questions for an economist to ask. But Steven D. Levitt is not a typical economist. He is a much-heralded scholar who studies the riddles of everyday life—from cheating and crime to sports and child-rearing—and whose conclusions turn conventional wisdom on its head.
Freakonomics is a groundbreaking collaboration between Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, an award-winning author and journalist. They usually begin with a mountain of data and a simple question. Some of these questions concern life-and-death issues; others have an admittedly freakish quality. Thus the new field of study contained in this book: Freakonomics.
Through forceful storytelling and wry insight, Levitt and Dubner show that economics is, at root, the study of incentives—how people get what they want, or need, especially when other people want or need the same thing. In Freakonomics, they explore the hidden side of . . . well, everything. The inner workings of a crack gang. The truth about real-estate agents. The myths of campaign finance. The telltale marks of a cheating schoolteacher. The secrets of the Ku Klux Klan.
What unites all these stories is a belief that the modern world, despite a great deal of complexity and downright deceit, is not impenetrable, is not unknowable, and—if the right questions are asked—is even more intriguing than we think. All it takes is a new way of looking.
Freakonomics establishes this unconventional premise: If morality represents how we would like the world to work, then economics represents how it actually does work. It is true that readers of this book will be armed with enough riddles and stories to last a thousand cocktail parties. But Freakonomics can provide more than that. It will literally redefine the way we view the modern world.
Bonus material added to the revised and expanded 2006 editionThe original New York Times Magazine article about Steven D. Levitt by Stephen J. Dubner, which led to the creation of this book.Seven “Freakonomics” columns written for the New York Times Magazine, published between August 2005 and April 2006.Selected entries from the Freakonomics blog, posted between April 2005 and May 2006 at http://www.freakonomics.com/blog/.
Using the Association of College and Research Libraries' Information Literacy Competency Standards for Higher Education as a framework, this much-needed sourcebook covers all the major facets of the information literacy process. For students, it is a ready-to-use guide that explains what information literacy is, why it is so important, and how to put it to use in both print and online research. For teachers, it is a helpful classroom resource that can serve as the basis for an information literacy course, a supplemental text, or a handy reference for research in any subject.
Archive Stories brings together ethnographies of the archival world, most of which are written by historians. Some contributors recount their own experiences. One offers a moving reflection on how the relative wealth and prestige of Western researchers can gain them entry to collections such as Uzbekistan’s newly formed Central State Archive, which severely limits the access of Uzbek researchers. Others explore the genealogies of specific archives, from one of the most influential archival institutions in the modern West, the Archives nationales in Paris, to the significant archives of the Bakunin family in Russia, which were saved largely through the efforts of one family member. Still others explore the impact of current events on the analysis of particular archives. A contributor tells of researching the 1976 Soweto riots in the politically charged atmosphere of the early 1990s, just as apartheid in South Africa was coming to an end. A number of the essays question what counts as an archive—and what counts as history—as they consider oral histories, cyberspace, fiction, and plans for streets and buildings that were never built, for histories that never materialized.
Contributors. Tony Ballantyne, Marilyn Booth, Antoinette Burton, Ann Curthoys, Peter Fritzsche, Durba Ghosh, Laura Mayhall, Jennifer S. Milligan, Kathryn J. Oberdeck, Adele Perry, Helena Pohlandt-McCormick, John Randolph, Craig Robertson, Horacio N. Roque Ramírez, Jeff Sahadeo, Reneé Sentilles
This book examines the impact of new technologies on children's experiences of books and libraries, and demonstrates how librarians can adapt to new technologies and integrate library services into the lives of today's children. From Boardbook to Facebook: Children's Services in an Interactive Age draws on current research to illuminate how children's use of media has changed in recent years and suggests ways in which new technologies can be integrated into library services now and in the future.
Information Now is an innovative approach to information literacy that will reinvent the way college students think about research. Instead of the typical textbook format, it uses illustrations, humor, and reflective exercises to teach students how to become savvy researchers. Students will learn how to evaluate information, to incorporate it into their existing knowledge base, to wield it effectively, and to understand the ethical issues surrounding its use. Written by two library professionals, it incorporates concepts and skills drawn from the Association of College and Research Libraries’ Information Literacy Competency Standards for Higher Education and their Framework for Information Literacy for Higher Education. Thoroughly researched and highly engaging, Information Now offers the tools that students need to become powerful consumers and creators of information.
Whether used by a high school student tackling a big paper, an undergrad facing the newness of a university library, or a writer wanting to go beyond Google, Information Now is a powerful tool for any researcher’s arsenal.
The first three chapters provide an overview of the Guided Inquiry design framework, identify the eight phases of the Guided Inquiry process, summarize the research that grounds Guided Inquiry, and describe the five tools of inquiry that are essential to implementation. The following chapters detail the eight phases in the Guided Inquiry design process, providing examples at all levels from pre-K through 12th grade and concluding with recommendations for building Guided Inquiry in your school.
The book is for pre-K–12 teachers, school librarians, and principals who are interested in and actively designing an inquiry approach to curricular learning that incorporates a wide range of resources from the library, the Internet, and the community. Staff of community resources, museum educators, and public librarians will also find the book useful for achieving student learning goals.
By showing us the true nature of chance and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives us the tools we need to make more informed decisions. From the classroom to the courtroom and from financial markets to supermarkets, Mlodinow's intriguing and illuminating look at how randomness, chance, and probability affect our daily lives will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
From the Trade Paperback edition.
Through the ideas and software in this book, users will learn to design and employ a fully-featured rendering system for creating stunning imagery. This completely updated and revised edition includes new coverage on ray-tracing hair and curves primitives, numerical precision issues with ray tracing, LBVHs, realistic camera models, the measurement equation, and much more. It is a must-have, full color resource on physically-based rendering.Presents up-to-date revisions of the seminal reference on rendering, including new sections on bidirectional path tracing, numerical robustness issues in ray tracing, realistic camera models, and subsurface scatteringProvides the source code for a complete rendering system allowing readers to get up and running fastIncludes a unique indexing feature, literate programming, that lists the locations of each function, variable, and method on the page where they are first describedServes as an essential resource on physically-based rendering
It doesn't have to be.
Rick Wormeli, a teacher certified by the National Board for Professional Teaching Standards, makes the case that summarization is not only one of the most effective ways to improve student learning, it's also one of the most flexible, responsive, and engaging. Here, you'll find a classroom-tested collection of written, spoken, artistic, and kinesthetic summarization techniques for both individual assignments and group activities across the content areas. Suitable for students in grades 3-12, these techniques are easily adjustable to any curriculum and presented with ample directions and vivid, multidisciplinary examples. They are valuable additions to every teacher's repertoire.
Wormeli also clarifies the process of teaching students how to summarize and includes a special section on the key skill of paraphrasing. The book concludes with an assortment of original text excerpts and activity prompts--a great starting place for teachers ready to use summarization in their own classrooms.
Note: This product listing is for the Adobe Acrobat (PDF) version of the book.
The second edition features two new chapters on digital curation and cooperative collection development. Additional updates include helpful information on infographics, more budgeting formulas, and a section on core collections, as well as content covering eBooks, electronic storage, and digital rights management. Chapters discuss subjects such as marketing the collection to patrons, book repair, and handling censorship issues when collections are challenged.
Many people, not just those new to the field of Library and Information Science, are curious about their career options. The editors of LIScareer.com have assembled 95 authors, each of whom describes a typical workday or work routine, sharing joys, sorrows, and annoyances in refreshingly candid fashion. In the process, they offer those interested in finding a similar job exposure to useful skills and advice across a wide variety of traditional and nontraditional jobs. In addition to public, academic, school, and special libraries, consortia, associations, LIS programs, vendors, publishing, consulting, and other non-library fields are also covered. This is a perfect guide for library and information science students, prospective information professionals, new librarians-or anyone considering a career change.
Crash Course in Library Services to People with Disabilities will help librarians get up to speed in understanding disabled persons and what they can do to make library premises and holdings more accessible to them. It provides basic information on the different types of mental and physical disabilities a librarian might encounter, then offers a range of exemplary policies, services, and programs for people with disabilities—efforts that are in place and working across the country.
Table of Contents: Introduction / Web Impact Assessment / Link Analysis / Blog Searching / Automatic Search Engine Searches: LexiURL Searcher / Web Crawling: SocSciBot / Search Engines and Data Reliability / Tracking User Actions Online / Advaned Techniques / Summary and Future Directions
The book contains eight parts, each emphasizing a different aspect of how to succeed with STEM. Part 1 emphasizes how hands-on activities that are both fun and educational can be used to further STEM awareness. Parts 2 and 3 contain chapters on the uniting of STEM with Information Literacy. Innovative collection development ideas are discussed in Part 4 and Part 5 focuses on research and publishing. Outreach is the theme of Part 6 and the programs described in these chapters offer an array of ways to connect with students of all ages. The final section of How to STEM: Science, Technology, Engineering, and Math Education in Libraries addresses the funding of these programs.
Librarians of all types will be pleased to discover easy-to-implement suggestions for collaborative efforts, many rich and diverse programming ideas, strategies for improving reference services and library instruction to speakers of English as a second language, marketing and promotional tips designed to welcome multicultural patrons into the library, and much more.
The Essentials For Dummies Series
Dummies is proud to present our new series, The Essentials For Dummies. Now students who are prepping for exams, preparing to study new material, or who just need a refresher can have a concise, easy-to-understand review guide that covers an entire course by concentrating solely on the most important concepts. From algebra and chemistry to grammar and Spanish, our expert authors focus on the skills students most need to succeed in a subject.
Activism and the School Librarian: Tools for Advocacy and Survival offers straightforward, practical approaches for creating advocacy programs. This guidebook examines the characteristics for becoming an advocate, explores the meaning of advocacy/activism as an effort that is ongoing and proactive, and provides the steps required for initiating a successful program. The contributors address the various types of advocacy and activism, including legislative advocacy at the local, state, and national levels; school and district level programs; and community-based initiatives. The book includes expert advice from successful advocates and provides helpful reproducible tools.
Draws on learning theories, research, and AASL's position on information literacy using a tried and true approach.
Considers five types of learning: content understanding, problem-solving, metacognition, collaboration, and communication
Includes lesson plans, information literacy skills pre-test and post-test, scoring rubrics, and a checklist for evaluating online databases
Gives expert advice on teaching information literacy and making the transition between high school and college
A copy of this book will assist the media specialist in preparing students for their future, including college research. An annotated bibliography identifies and summarizes major works in the various aspects of information literacy and assessment techniques. Everything you need to know to prepare your students is included in this masterful second edition."
Pop-up books possess universal appeal. Everyone-from preschoolers to adults-loves to see and tactilely experience the beautiful, three-dimensional work of Robert Sabuda, David A. Carter, and other pop-up book creators. Sabuda himself was inspired to become a pop-up book artist after experiencing the 1972 classic pop-up The Adventures of Super Pickle. The effect of these movable books on young minds is uniquely powerful. Besides riveting children's attention, pop-up books can also help build motor skills, teach cause and effect, and develop spatial understanding of objects
Based on their direct experience and many presentations to teachers and librarians, the authors have provided template lesson plans with curriculum and standards links for using the best pop-up books currently available in the instructional program of the school. The book also includes profiles of the most notable authors, a history of the format, definitions of terms such as "flap book: and "paper engineer," and information on how to create movable books. Librarians will find the section regarding collection development with the format-how and where to acquire them, proper storage methods-and the annotated listing of the authors' 50 favorite pop-ups extremely helpful
The normal physical laws like, transport theory, electrodynamics, equation of motions, elasticity, viscosity, and several others of are based on ‘ordinary’ calculus. In this book these physical laws are generalized in fractional calculus contexts; taking, heterogeneity effect in transport background, the space having traps or islands, irregular distribution of charges, non-ideal spring with mass connected to a pointless-mass ball, material behaving with viscous as well as elastic properties, system relaxation with and without memory, physics of random delay in computer network; and several others; mapping the reality of nature closely. The concept of fractional and complex order differentiation and integration are elaborated mathematically, physically and geometrically with examples. The practical utility of local fractional differentiation for enhancing the character of singularity at phase transition or characterizing the irregularity measure of response function is deliberated. Practical results of viscoelastic experiments, fractional order controls experiments, design of fractional controller and practical circuit synthesis for fractional order elements are elaborated in this book. The book also maps theory of classical integer order differential equations to fractional calculus contexts, and deals in details with conflicting and demanding initialization issues, required in classical techniques. The book presents a modern approach to solve the ‘solvable’ system of fractional and other differential equations, linear, non-linear; without perturbation or transformations, but by applying physical principle of action-and-opposite-reaction, giving ‘approximately exact’ series solutions.
Historically, Sir Isaac Newton and Gottfried Wihelm Leibniz independently discovered calculus in the middle of the 17th century. In recognition to this remarkable discovery, J.von Neumann remarked, “...the calculus was the first achievement of modern mathematics and it is difficult to overestimate its importance. I think it defines more equivocally than anything else the inception of modern mathematical analysis which is logical development, still constitute the greatest technical advance in exact thinking.”
This XXI century has thus started to ‘think-exactly’ for advancement in science & technology by growing application of fractional calculus, and this century has started speaking the language which nature understands the best.
Like its predecessors, this fifth edition is exceptionally comprehensive. Content has been thoroughly updated and sections have been added on social networking and other web-based research methods and techniques. The book emphasizes quantitative research, including survey and experimental studies. It also gives attention to qualitative research, including historical research. A chapter is devoted to the statistical analysis of research results. Evaluation, writing, and publishing of research reports are considered as well. Coauthored by distinguished researchers in library and information science, the book also includes contributions from experts on qualitative research, domain assumptions of research, and sampling.