New York Times Bestseller
“Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”
—New York Times Book Review
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism."
—New York Review of Books
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Features of the Fourth Edition include:New material on sample size calculations for chance-corrected agreement coefficients, as well as for intraclass correlation coefficients. The researcher will be able to determine the optimal number raters, subjects, and trials per subject.The chapter entitled “Benchmarking Inter-Rater Reliability Coefficients” has been entirely rewritten.The introductory chapter has been substantially expanded to explore possible definitions of the notion of inter-rater reliability.All chapters have been revised to a large extent to improve their readability.
". . . [this book] should be on the shelf of everyone interestedin . . . longitudinal data analysis."
—Journal of the American Statistical Association
Features newly developed topics and applications of theanalysis of longitudinal data
Applied Longitudinal Analysis, Second Edition presentsmodern methods for analyzing data from longitudinal studies and nowfeatures the latest state-of-the-art techniques. The bookemphasizes practical, rather than theoretical, aspects of methodsfor the analysis of diverse types of longitudinal data that can beapplied across various fields of study, from the health and medicalsciences to the social and behavioral sciences.
The authors incorporate their extensive academic and researchexperience along with various updates that have been made inresponse to reader feedback. The Second Edition features six newlyadded chapters that explore topics currently evolving in the field,including:Fixed effects and mixed effects modelsMarginal models and generalized estimating equationsApproximate methods for generalized linear mixed effectsmodelsMultiple imputation and inverse probability weightedmethodsSmoothing methods for longitudinal dataSample size and power
Each chapter presents methods in the setting of applications todata sets drawn from the health sciences. New problem sets havebeen added to many chapters, and a related website features sampleprograms and computer output using SAS, Stata, and R, as well asdata sets and supplemental slides to facilitate a completeunderstanding of the material.
With its strong emphasis on multidisciplinary applications andthe interpretation of results, Applied LongitudinalAnalysis, Second Edition is an excellent book for courses onstatistics in the health and medical sciences at theupper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book also serves as avaluable reference for researchers and professionals in themedical, public health, and pharmaceutical fields as well as thosein social and behavioral sciences who would like to learn moreabout analyzing longitudinal data.
For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.
And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.
This thoroughly expanded Third Edition provides an easily accessible introduction to the logistic regression (LR) model and highlights the power of this model by examining the relationship between a dichotomous outcome and a set of covariables.
Applied Logistic Regression, Third Edition emphasizes applications in the health sciences and handpicks topics that best suit the use of modern statistical software. The book provides readers with state-of-the-art techniques for building, interpreting, and assessing the performance of LR models. New and updated features include:A chapter on the analysis of correlated outcome dataA wealth of additional material for topics ranging from Bayesian methods to assessing model fitRich data sets from real-world studies that demonstrate each method under discussionDetailed examples and interpretation of the presented results as well as exercises throughout
Applied Logistic Regression, Third Edition is a must-have guide for professionals and researchers who need to model nominal or ordinal scaled outcome variables in public health, medicine, and the social sciences as well as a wide range of other fields and disciplines.
These may not sound like typical questions for an economist to ask. But Steven D. Levitt is not a typical economist. He is a much-heralded scholar who studies the riddles of everyday life—from cheating and crime to sports and child-rearing—and whose conclusions turn conventional wisdom on its head.
Freakonomics is a groundbreaking collaboration between Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, an award-winning author and journalist. They usually begin with a mountain of data and a simple question. Some of these questions concern life-and-death issues; others have an admittedly freakish quality. Thus the new field of study contained in this book: Freakonomics.
Through forceful storytelling and wry insight, Levitt and Dubner show that economics is, at root, the study of incentives—how people get what they want, or need, especially when other people want or need the same thing. In Freakonomics, they explore the hidden side of . . . well, everything. The inner workings of a crack gang. The truth about real-estate agents. The myths of campaign finance. The telltale marks of a cheating schoolteacher. The secrets of the Ku Klux Klan.
What unites all these stories is a belief that the modern world, despite a great deal of complexity and downright deceit, is not impenetrable, is not unknowable, and—if the right questions are asked—is even more intriguing than we think. All it takes is a new way of looking.
Freakonomics establishes this unconventional premise: If morality represents how we would like the world to work, then economics represents how it actually does work. It is true that readers of this book will be armed with enough riddles and stories to last a thousand cocktail parties. But Freakonomics can provide more than that. It will literally redefine the way we view the modern world.
Bonus material added to the revised and expanded 2006 editionThe original New York Times Magazine article about Steven D. Levitt by Stephen J. Dubner, which led to the creation of this book.Seven “Freakonomics” columns written for the New York Times Magazine, published between August 2005 and April 2006.Selected entries from the Freakonomics blog, posted between April 2005 and May 2006 at http://www.freakonomics.com/blog/.
Learn to evaluate and apply statistics in medicine, medical research, and all health-related fields.Emphasis on the basics of biostatistics and epidemiology and the clinical applications in evidence-based medicine and decision-making methods NEW chapter on survey research Expanded discussion of logistic regression, the Cox model, and other multivariate statistical methods Key Concepts in each chapter pinpoint essential information Presenting Problems drawn from studies in the medical literature that illustrate the various statistical methods Downloadable NCSS statistical software, procedures, and data sets from the presenting problems End-of-chapter exercises Multiple-choice final practice exam
Treating these topics together takes advantage of all they have in common. The authors point out the many-shared elements in the methods they present for selecting, estimating, checking, and interpreting each of these models. They also show that these regression methods deal with confounding, mediation, and interaction of causal effects in essentially the same way.
The examples, analyzed using Stata, are drawn from the biomedical context but generalize to other areas of application. While a first course in statistics is assumed, a chapter reviewing basic statistical methods is included. Some advanced topics are covered but the presentation remains intuitive. A brief introduction to regression analysis of complex surveys and notes for further reading are provided. For many students and researchers learning to use these methods, this one book may be all they need to conduct and interpret multipredictor regression analyses.
The authors are on the faculty in the Division of Biostatistics, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, and are authors or co-authors of more than 200 methodological as well as applied papers in the biological and biomedical sciences. The senior author, Charles E. McCulloch, is head of the Division and author of Generalized Linear Mixed Models (2003), Generalized, Linear, and Mixed Models (2000), and Variance Components (1992).
From the reviews:
"This book provides a unified introduction to the regression methods listed in the title...The methods are well illustrated by data drawn from medical studies...A real strength of this book is the careful discussion of issues common to all of the multipredictor methods covered." Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 2005
"This book is not just for biostatisticians. It is, in fact, a very good, and relatively nonmathematical, overview of multipredictor regression models. Although the examples are biologically oriented, they are generally easy to understand and follow...I heartily recommend the book" Technometrics, February 2006
"Overall, the text provides an overview of regression methods that is particularly strong in its breadth of coverage and emphasis on insight in place of mathematical detail. As intended, this well-unified approach should appeal to students who learn conceptually and verbally." Journal of the American Statistical Association, March 2006
“This book will serve to greatly complement the growingnumber of texts dealing with mixed models, and I highly recommendincluding it in one’s personal library.”
—Journal of the American StatisticalAssociation
Mixed modeling is a crucial area of statistics, enablingthe analysis of clustered and longitudinal data. Mixed Models:Theory and Applications with R, Second Edition fills a gap inexisting literature between mathematical and applied statisticalbooks by presenting a powerful examination of mixed model theoryand application with special attention given to the implementationin R.
The new edition provides in-depth mathematical coverage of mixedmodels’ statistical properties and numerical algorithms, aswell as nontraditional applications, such as regrowth curves,shapes, and images. The book features the latest topics instatistics including modeling of complex clustered or longitudinaldata, modeling data with multiple sources of variation, modelingbiological variety and heterogeneity, Healthy Akaike InformationCriterion (HAIC), parameter multidimensionality, and statistics ofimage processing.
Mixed Models: Theory and Applications with R, SecondEdition features unique applications of mixed modelmethodology, as well as:Comprehensive theoretical discussions illustrated by examplesand figuresOver 300 exercises, end-of-section problems, updated data sets,and R subroutinesProblems and extended projects requiring simulations in Rintended to reinforce materialSummaries of major results and general points of discussion atthe end of each chapterOpen problems in mixed modeling methodology, which can be usedas the basis for research or PhD dissertations
Ideal for graduate-level courses in mixed statistical modeling,the book is also an excellent reference for professionals in arange of fields, including cancer research, computer science, andengineering.
This volume provides formulas and procedures for determination of sample size required not only for testing equality, but also for testing non-inferiority/superiority, and equivalence (similarity) based on both untransformed (raw) data and log-transformed data under a parallel-group design or a crossover design with equal or unequal ratio of treatment allocations. It contains a comprehensive and unified presentation of statistical procedures for sample size calculation that are commonly employed at various phases of clinical development. Each chapter includes, whenever possible, real examples of clinical studies from therapeutic areas such as cardiovascular, central nervous system, anti-infective, oncology, and women's health to demonstrate the clinical and statistical concepts, interpretations, and their relationships and interactions.
The book highlights statistical procedures for sample size calculation and justification that are commonly employed in clinical research and development. It provides clear, illustrated explanations of how the derived formulas and/or statistical procedures can be used.
• Introduces requisite background to using NonlinearMixed Effects Modeling (NONMEM), covering data requirements, modelbuilding and evaluation, and quality control aspects
• Provides examples of nonlinear modeling concepts andestimation basics with discussion on the model buildingprocess and applications of empirical Bayesian estimates in thedrug development environment
• Includes detailed chapters on data set structure,developing control streams for modeling and simulation, modelapplications, interpretation of NONMEM output and results, andquality control
• Has datasets, programming code, and practice exerciseswith solutions, available on a supplementary website
Includes practical examples from recent trials
Bringing together leading statisticians, scientists, and clinicians from the pharmaceutical industry, academia, and regulatory agencies, Multiple Testing Problems in Pharmaceutical Statistics explores the rapidly growing area of multiple comparison research with an emphasis on pharmaceutical applications. In each chapter, the expert contributors describe important multiplicity problems encountered in pre-clinical and clinical trial settings.
The book begins with a broad introduction from a regulatory perspective to different types of multiplicity problems that commonly arise in confirmatory controlled clinical trials, before giving an overview of the concepts, principles, and procedures of multiple testing. It then presents statistical methods for analyzing clinical dose response studies that compare several dose levels with a control as well as statistical methods for analyzing multiple endpoints in clinical trials. After covering gatekeeping procedures for testing hierarchically ordered hypotheses, the book discusses statistical approaches for the design and analysis of adaptive designs and related confirmatory hypothesis testing problems. The final chapter focuses on the design of pharmacogenomic studies based on established statistical principles. It also describes the analysis of data collected in these studies, taking into account the numerous multiplicity issues that occur.
This volume explains how to solve critical issues in multiple testing encountered in pre-clinical and clinical trial applications. It presents the necessary statistical methodology, along with examples and software code to show how to use the methods in practice.
Collecting, analysing and drawing inferences from data iscentral to research in the medical and social sciences.Unfortunately, it is rarely possible to collect all the intendeddata. The literature on inference from the resultingincomplete data is now huge, and continues to grow both asmethods are developed for large and complex data structures, and asincreasing computer power and suitable software enable researchersto apply these methods.
This book focuses on a particular statistical method foranalysing and drawing inferences from incomplete data, calledMultiple Imputation (MI). MI is attractive because it is bothpractical and widely applicable. The authors aim is to clarify theissues raised by missing data, describing the rationale for MI, therelationship between the various imputation models and associatedalgorithms and its application to increasingly complex datastructures.
Multiple Imputation and its Application:Discusses the issues raised by the analysis of partiallyobserved data, and the assumptions on which analyses rest.Presents a practical guide to the issues to consider whenanalysing incomplete data from both observational studies andrandomized trials.Provides a detailed discussion of the practical use of MI withreal-world examples drawn from medical and social statistics.Explores handling non-linear relationships and interactionswith multiple imputation, survival analysis, multilevel multipleimputation, sensitivity analysis via multiple imputation, usingnon-response weights with multiple imputation and doubly robustmultiple imputation.
Multiple Imputation and its Application is aimed atquantitative researchers and students in the medical and socialsciences with the aim of clarifying the issues raised by theanalysis of incomplete data data, outlining the rationale for MIand describing how to consider and address the issues that arise inits application.
The aim of this book is to show how R can be used as the software tool in the development of Six Sigma projects. The book includes a gentle introduction to Six Sigma and a variety of examples showing how to use R within real situations. It has been conceived as a self contained piece. Therefore, it is addressed not only to Six Sigma practitioners, but also to professionals trying to initiate themselves in this management methodology. The book may be used as a text book as well.
This Book:Surveys basic statistical methods used in the genetics andepidemiology literature, including maximum likelihood and leastsquares.Introduces methods, such as permutation testing andbootstrapping, that are becoming more widely used in both geneticand epidemiological research.Is illustrated throughout with simple examples to clarify thestatistical methodology.Explains Bayes’ theorem pictorially.Features exercises, with answers to alternate questions,enabling use as a course text.
Written at an elementary mathematical level so that readers withhigh school mathematics will find the content accessible. Graduatestudents studying genetic epidemiology, researchers andpractitioners from genetics, epidemiology, biology, medicalresearch and statistics will find this an invaluable introductionto statistics.
By showing us the true nature of chance and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives us the tools we need to make more informed decisions. From the classroom to the courtroom and from financial markets to supermarkets, Mlodinow's intriguing and illuminating look at how randomness, chance, and probability affect our daily lives will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
From the Trade Paperback edition.
* import and preprocessing of data from various sources
* statistical modeling of differential gene expression
* biological metadata
* application of graphs and graph rendering
* machine learning for clustering and classification problems
* gene set enrichment analysis
Each chapter of this book describes an analysis of real data using hands-on example driven approaches. Short exercises help in the learning process and invite more advanced considerations of key topics. The book is a dynamic document. All the code shown can be executed on a local computer, and readers are able to reproduce every computation, figure, and table.
The Essentials For Dummies Series
Dummies is proud to present our new series, The Essentials ForDummies. Now students who are prepping for exams, preparing tostudy new material, or who just need a refresher can have aconcise, easy-to-understand review guide that covers an entirecourse by concentrating solely on the most important concepts. Fromalgebra and chemistry to grammar and Spanish, our expert authorsfocus on the skills students most need to succeed in a subject.
This text is intended for a broad audience as both an introduction to predictive models as well as a guide to applying them. Non-mathematical readers will appreciate the intuitive explanations of the techniques while an emphasis on problem-solving with real data across a wide variety of applications will aid practitioners who wish to extend their expertise. Readers should have knowledge of basic statistical ideas, such as correlation and linear regression analysis. While the text is biased against complex equations, a mathematical background is needed for advanced topics.
The fun and easy way to get down to business with statistics
Stymied by statistics? No fear? this friendly guide offers clear, practical explanations of statistical ideas, techniques, formulas, and calculations, with lots of examples that show you how these concepts apply to your everyday life.
Statistics For Dummies shows you how to interpret and critique graphs and charts, determine the odds with probability, guesstimate with confidence using confidence intervals, set up and carry out a hypothesis test, compute statistical formulas, and more.Tracks to a typical first semester statistics course Updated examples resonate with today's students Explanations mirror teaching methods and classroom protocol
Packed with practical advice and real-world problems, Statistics For Dummies gives you everything you need to analyze and interpret data for improved classroom or on-the-job performance.
The assumption that metrics comparing us to an average—like GPAs, personality test results, and performance review ratings—reveal something meaningful about our potential is so ingrained in our consciousness that we don’t even question it. That assumption, says Harvard’s Todd Rose, is spectacularly—and scientifically—wrong.
In The End of Average, Rose, a rising star in the new field of the science of the individual shows that no one is average. Not you. Not your kids. Not your employees. This isn’t hollow sloganeering—it’s a mathematical fact with enormous practical consequences. But while we know people learn and develop in distinctive ways, these unique patterns of behaviors are lost in our schools and businesses which have been designed around the mythical “average person.” This average-size-fits-all model ignores our differences and fails at recognizing talent. It’s time to change it.
Weaving science, history, and his personal experiences as a high school dropout, Rose offers a powerful alternative to understanding individuals through averages: the three principles of individuality. The jaggedness principle (talent is always jagged), the context principle (traits are a myth), and the pathways principle (we all walk the road less traveled) help us understand our true uniqueness—and that of others—and how to take full advantage of individuality to gain an edge in life.
Read this powerful manifesto in the ranks of Drive, Quiet, and Mindset—and you won’t see averages or talent in the same way again.
Two of the authors co-wrote The Elements of Statistical Learning (Hastie, Tibshirani and Friedman, 2nd edition 2009), a popular reference book for statistics and machine learning researchers. An Introduction to Statistical Learning covers many of the same topics, but at a level accessible to a much broader audience. This book is targeted at statisticians and non-statisticians alike who wish to use cutting-edge statistical learning techniques to analyze their data. The text assumes only a previous course in linear regression and no knowledge of matrix algebra.
Several survey data sets are used to illustrate how to design samples, to make estimates from complex surveys for use in optimizing the sample allocation, and to calculate weights. Realistic survey projects are used to demonstrate the challenges and provide a context for the solutions. The book covers several topics that either are not included or are dealt with in a limited way in other texts. These areas include: sample size computations for multistage designs; power calculations related to surveys; mathematical programming for sample allocation in a multi-criteria optimization setting; nuts and bolts of area probability sampling; multiphase designs; quality control of survey operations; and statistical software for survey sampling and estimation. An associated R package, PracTools, contains a number of specialized functions for sample size and other calculations. The data sets used in the book are also available in PracTools, so that the reader may replicate the examples or perform further analyses.
Sampling of Populations, Fourth Edition continues toserve as an all-inclusive resource on the basic and most currentpractices in population sampling. Maintaining the clear andaccessible style of the previous edition, this book outlines theessential statistical methodsfor survey design and analysis, whilealso exploring techniques that have developed over the pastdecade.
The Fourth Edition successfully guides the reader throughthe basic concepts and procedures that accompany real-world samplesurveys, such as sampling designs, problems of missing data,statistical analysis of multistage sampling data, and nonresponseand poststratification adjustment procedures. Rather than employ aheavily mathematical approach, the authors present illustrativeexamples that demonstrate the rationale behind common steps in thesampling process, from creating effective surveys to analyzingcollected data. Along with established methods, modern topics aretreated through the book's new features, which include:A new chapter on telephone sampling, with coverage of decliningresponse rates, the creation of "do not call" lists, and thegrowing use of cellular phonesA new chapter on sample weighting that focuses on adjustmentsto weight for nonresponse, frame deficiencies, and the effects ofestimator instabilityAn updated discussion of sample survey data analysis thatincludes analytic procedures for estimation and hypothesistestingA new section on Chromy's widely used method of takingprobability proportional to size samples with minimum replacementof primary sampling unitsAn expanded index with references on the latest research in thefield
All of the book's examples and exercises can be easily workedout using various software packages including SAS, STATA, andSUDAAN, and an extensive FTP site contains additional data sets.With its comprehensive presentation and wealth of relevantexamples, Sampling of Populations, Fourth Edition is anideal book for courses on survey sampling at theupper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a valuablereference for practicing statisticians who would like to refreshtheir knowledge of sampling techniques.
The book is divided into three parts and begins with the basics: models, probability, Bayes’ rule, and the R programming language. The discussion then moves to the fundamentals applied to inferring a binomial probability, before concluding with chapters on the generalized linear model. Topics include metric-predicted variable on one or two groups; metric-predicted variable with one metric predictor; metric-predicted variable with multiple metric predictors; metric-predicted variable with one nominal predictor; and metric-predicted variable with multiple nominal predictors. The exercises found in the text have explicit purposes and guidelines for accomplishment.
This book is intended for first-year graduate students or advanced undergraduates in statistics, data analysis, psychology, cognitive science, social sciences, clinical sciences, and consumer sciences in business.Accessible, including the basics of essential concepts of probability and random samplingExamples with R programming language and JAGS softwareComprehensive coverage of all scenarios addressed by non-Bayesian textbooks: t-tests, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and comparisons in ANOVA, multiple regression, and chi-square (contingency table analysis)Coverage of experiment planningR and JAGS computer programming code on websiteExercises have explicit purposes and guidelines for accomplishment
Provides step-by-step instructions on how to conduct Bayesian data analyses in the popular and free software R and WinBugs
The authors first present an overview of publicly available baseball datasets and a gentle introduction to the type of data structures and exploratory and data management capabilities of R. They also cover the traditional graphics functions in the base package and introduce more sophisticated graphical displays available through the lattice and ggplot2 packages. Much of the book illustrates the use of R through popular sabermetrics topics, including the Pythagorean formula, runs expectancy, career trajectories, simulation of games and seasons, patterns of streaky behavior of players, and fielding measures. Each chapter contains exercises that encourage readers to perform their own analyses using R. All of the datasets and R code used in the text are available online.
This book helps readers answer questions about baseball teams, players, and strategy using large, publically available datasets. It offers detailed instructions on downloading the datasets and putting them into formats that simplify data exploration and analysis. Through the book’s various examples, readers will learn about modern sabermetrics and be able to conduct their own baseball analyses.
- Calculating descriptive statistics
- Measures of central tendency: mean, median, and mode
- Variance analysis
- Inferential statistics
- Hypothesis testing
- Organizing data into statistical charts and tables
The author begins with basic characteristics of financial timeseries data before covering three main topics:Analysis and application of univariate financial timeseriesThe return series of multiple assetsBayesian inference in finance methods
Key features of the new edition include additional coverage ofmodern day topics such as arbitrage, pair trading, realizedvolatility, and credit risk modeling; a smooth transition fromS-Plus to R; and expanded empirical financial data sets.
The overall objective of the book is to provide some knowledgeof financial time series, introduce some statistical tools usefulfor analyzing these series and gain experience in financialapplications of various econometric methods.
Each chapter presents easy-to-follow descriptions, along with graphics, formulas, solved examples, and hands-on exercises. If you want to perform common statistical analyses and learn a wide range of techniques without getting in over your head, this is your book.Learn basic concepts of measurement and probability theory, data management, and research designDiscover basic statistical procedures, including correlation, the t-test, the chi-square and Fisher’s exact tests, and techniques for analyzing nonparametric dataLearn advanced techniques based on the general linear model, including ANOVA, ANCOVA, multiple linear regression, and logistic regressionUse and interpret statistics for business and quality improvement, medical and public health, and education and psychologyCommunicate with statistics and critique statistical information presented by others
Recent advances in the field, particularly Parrondo's paradox, have triggered a surge of interest in the statistical and mathematical theory behind gambling. This interest was acknowledge in the motion picture, "21," inspired by the true story of the MIT students who mastered the art of card counting to reap millions from the Vegas casinos. Richard Epstein's classic book on gambling and its mathematical analysis covers the full range of games from penny matching to blackjack, from Tic-Tac-Toe to the stock market (including Edward Thorp's warrant-hedging analysis). He even considers whether statistical inference can shed light on the study of paranormal phenomena. Epstein is witty and insightful, a pleasure to dip into and read and rewarding to study. The book is written at a fairly sophisticated mathematical level; this is not "Gambling for Dummies" or "How To Beat The Odds Without Really Trying." A background in upper-level undergraduate mathematics is helpful for understanding this work.
o Comprehensive and exciting analysis of all major casino games and variants o Covers a wide range of interesting topics not covered in other books on the subject o Depth and breadth of its material is unique compared to other books of this nature
Richard Epstein's website: www.gamblingtheory.net
· Downloadable data sets
· Library of computer programs in SAS, SPSS, Stata, HLM, MLwiN, and more
· Additional material for data analysis
1,001 Statistics Practice Problems For Dummies takes youbeyond the instruction and guidance offered in Statistics ForDummies to give you a more hands-on understanding of statistics.The practice problems offered range in difficulty, includingdetailed explanations and walk-throughs.
In this series, every step of every solution is shown withexplanations and detailed narratives to help you solve eachproblem. With the book purchase, you’ll also get access topractice statistics problems online. This content features 1,001practice problems presented in multiple choice format; on-the-goaccess from smart phones, computers, and tablets; customizablepractice sets for self-directed study; practice problemscategorized as easy, medium, or hard; and a one-year subscriptionwith book purchase.Offers on-the-go access to practice statistics problemsGives you friendly, hands-on instruction1,001 statistics practice problems that range indifficulty
1,001 Statistics Practice Problems For Dummies providesample practice opportunities for students who may have takenstatistics in high school and want to review the most importantconcepts as they gear up for a faster-paced college class.
Advanced stats give hockeyÍs powerbrokers an edge, and now fans can get in on the action. Stat Shot is a fun and informative guide hockey fans can use to understand and enjoy what analytics says about team building, a playerÍs junior numbers, measuring faceoff success, recording save percentage, the most one-sided trades in history, and everything you ever wanted to know about shot-based metrics. Acting as an invaluable supplement to traditional analysis, Stat Shot can be used to test the validity of conventional wisdom, and to gain insight into what teams are doing behind the scenes „ or maybe what they should be doing.
Whether looking for a reference for leading-edge research and hard-to-find statistical data, or for passionate and engaging storytelling, Stat Shot belongs on every serious hockey fanÍs bookshelf.
This major new edition features many topics not covered in the original, including graphical models, random forests, ensemble methods, least angle regression & path algorithms for the lasso, non-negative matrix factorization, and spectral clustering. There is also a chapter on methods for ``wide'' data (p bigger than n), including multiple testing and false discovery rates.
Trevor Hastie, Robert Tibshirani, and Jerome Friedman are professors of statistics at Stanford University. They are prominent researchers in this area: Hastie and Tibshirani developed generalized additive models and wrote a popular book of that title. Hastie co-developed much of the statistical modeling software and environment in R/S-PLUS and invented principal curves and surfaces. Tibshirani proposed the lasso and is co-author of the very successful An Introduction to the Bootstrap. Friedman is the co-inventor of many data-mining tools including CART, MARS, projection pursuit and gradient boosting.
CD-ROM performs 30 statistical tests
Don't be afraid of biostatistics anymore! Primer of Biostatistics,7th Edition demystifies this challenging topic in an interesting and enjoyable manner that assumes no prior knowledge of the subject. Faster than you thought possible, you'll understand test selection and be able to evaluate biomedical statistics critically, knowledgeably, and confidently.
With Primer of Biostatistics, you’ll start with the basics, including analysis of variance and the t test, then advance to multiple comparison testing, contingency tables, regression, and more. Illustrative examples and challenging problems, culled from the recent biomedical literature, highlight the discussions throughout and help to foster a more intuitive approach to biostatistics.
The companion CD-ROM contains everything you need to run thirty statistical tests of your own data. Review questions and summaries in each chapter facilitate the learning process and help you gauge your comprehension. By combining whimsical studies of Martians and other planetary residents with actual papers from the biomedical literature, the author makes the subject fun and engaging.
Coverage includes:How to summarize data How to test for differences between groups The t test How to analyze rates and proportions What does “not significant” really mean? Confidence intervals How to test for trends Experiments when each subject receives more than one treatment Alternatives to analysis of variance and the t test based on ranks How to analyze survival data
But Hand is no believer in superstitions, prophecies, or the paranormal. His definition of "miracle" is thoroughly rational. No mystical or supernatural explanation is necessary to understand why someone is lucky enough to win the lottery twice, or is destined to be hit by lightning three times and still survive. All we need, Hand argues, is a firm grounding in a powerful set of laws: the laws of inevitability, of truly large numbers, of selection, of the probability lever, and of near enough.
Together, these constitute Hand's groundbreaking Improbability Principle. And together, they explain why we should not be so surprised to bump into a friend in a foreign country, or to come across the same unfamiliar word four times in one day. Hand wrestles with seemingly less explicable questions as well: what the Bible and Shakespeare have in common, why financial crashes are par for the course, and why lightning does strike the same place (and the same person) twice. Along the way, he teaches us how to use the Improbability Principle in our own lives—including how to cash in at a casino and how to recognize when a medicine is truly effective.
An irresistible adventure into the laws behind "chance" moments and a trusty guide for understanding the world and universe we live in, The Improbability Principle will transform how you think about serendipity and luck, whether it's in the world of business and finance or you're merely sitting in your backyard, tossing a ball into the air and wondering where it will land.
The authors present the material in an accessible style and motivate concepts using real-world examples. Throughout, they use stories to uncover connections between the fundamental distributions in statistics and conditioning to reduce complicated problems to manageable pieces.
The book includes many intuitive explanations, diagrams, and practice problems. Each chapter ends with a section showing how to perform relevant simulations and calculations in R, a free statistical software environment.
* Easy-to-follow format incorporates medical examples, step-by-step methods, and check yourself exercises
* Two-part design features course material and a professional reference section
* Chapter summaries provide a review of formulas, method algorithms, and check lists
* Companion site links to statistical databases that can be downloaded and used to perform the exercises from the book and practice statistical methods
New in this Edition:
* New chapters on: multifactor tests on means of continuous data, equivalence testing, and advanced methods
* New topics include: trial randomization, treatment ethics in medical research, imputation of missing data, and making evidence-based medical decisions
* Updated database coverage and additional exercises
* Expanded coverage of numbers needed to treat and to benefit, and regression analysis including stepwise regression and Cox regression
Thorough discussion on required sample size
The second edition adds a discussion of vector auto-regressive, structural vector auto-regressive, and structural vector error-correction models. To analyze the interactions between the investigated variables, further impulse response function and forecast error variance decompositions are introduced as well as forecasting. The author explains how these model types relate to each other.