New York Times Bestseller
“Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”
—New York Times Book Review
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism."
—New York Review of Books
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.
And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.
By showing us the true nature of chance and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives us the tools we need to make more informed decisions. From the classroom to the courtroom and from financial markets to supermarkets, Mlodinow's intriguing and illuminating look at how randomness, chance, and probability affect our daily lives will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
From the Trade Paperback edition.
The Essentials For Dummies Series
Dummies is proud to present our new series, The Essentials ForDummies. Now students who are prepping for exams, preparing tostudy new material, or who just need a refresher can have aconcise, easy-to-understand review guide that covers an entirecourse by concentrating solely on the most important concepts. Fromalgebra and chemistry to grammar and Spanish, our expert authorsfocus on the skills students most need to succeed in a subject.
The fun and easy way to get down to business with statistics
Stymied by statistics? No fear? this friendly guide offers clear, practical explanations of statistical ideas, techniques, formulas, and calculations, with lots of examples that show you how these concepts apply to your everyday life.
Statistics For Dummies shows you how to interpret and critique graphs and charts, determine the odds with probability, guesstimate with confidence using confidence intervals, set up and carry out a hypothesis test, compute statistical formulas, and more.Tracks to a typical first semester statistics courseUpdated examples resonate with today's studentsExplanations mirror teaching methods and classroom protocol
Packed with practical advice and real-world problems, Statistics For Dummies gives you everything you need to analyze and interpret data for improved classroom or on-the-job performance.
Two of the authors co-wrote The Elements of Statistical Learning (Hastie, Tibshirani and Friedman, 2nd edition 2009), a popular reference book for statistics and machine learning researchers. An Introduction to Statistical Learning covers many of the same topics, but at a level accessible to a much broader audience. This book is targeted at statisticians and non-statisticians alike who wish to use cutting-edge statistical learning techniques to analyze their data. The text assumes only a previous course in linear regression and no knowledge of matrix algebra.
1,001 Statistics Practice Problems For Dummies takes youbeyond the instruction and guidance offered in Statistics ForDummies to give you a more hands-on understanding of statistics.The practice problems offered range in difficulty, includingdetailed explanations and walk-throughs.
In this series, every step of every solution is shown withexplanations and detailed narratives to help you solve eachproblem. With the book purchase, you’ll also get access topractice statistics problems online. This content features 1,001practice problems presented in multiple choice format; on-the-goaccess from smart phones, computers, and tablets; customizablepractice sets for self-directed study; practice problemscategorized as easy, medium, or hard; and a one-year subscriptionwith book purchase.Offers on-the-go access to practice statistics problemsGives you friendly, hands-on instruction1,001 statistics practice problems that range indifficulty
1,001 Statistics Practice Problems For Dummies providesample practice opportunities for students who may have takenstatistics in high school and want to review the most importantconcepts as they gear up for a faster-paced college class.
The book is divided into three parts and begins with the basics: models, probability, Bayes’ rule, and the R programming language. The discussion then moves to the fundamentals applied to inferring a binomial probability, before concluding with chapters on the generalized linear model. Topics include metric-predicted variable on one or two groups; metric-predicted variable with one metric predictor; metric-predicted variable with multiple metric predictors; metric-predicted variable with one nominal predictor; and metric-predicted variable with multiple nominal predictors. The exercises found in the text have explicit purposes and guidelines for accomplishment.
This book is intended for first-year graduate students or advanced undergraduates in statistics, data analysis, psychology, cognitive science, social sciences, clinical sciences, and consumer sciences in business.Accessible, including the basics of essential concepts of probability and random samplingExamples with R programming language and JAGS softwareComprehensive coverage of all scenarios addressed by non-Bayesian textbooks: t-tests, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and comparisons in ANOVA, multiple regression, and chi-square (contingency table analysis)Coverage of experiment planningR and JAGS computer programming code on websiteExercises have explicit purposes and guidelines for accomplishment
Provides step-by-step instructions on how to conduct Bayesian data analyses in the popular and free software R and WinBugs
Authors Hadley Wickham and Garrett Grolemund guide you through the steps of importing, wrangling, exploring, and modeling your data and communicating the results. You’ll get a complete, big-picture understanding of the data science cycle, along with basic tools you need to manage the details. Each section of the book is paired with exercises to help you practice what you’ve learned along the way.
You’ll learn how to:Wrangle—transform your datasets into a form convenient for analysisProgram—learn powerful R tools for solving data problems with greater clarity and easeExplore—examine your data, generate hypotheses, and quickly test themModel—provide a low-dimensional summary that captures true "signals" in your datasetCommunicate—learn R Markdown for integrating prose, code, and results
Each chapter presents easy-to-follow descriptions, along with graphics, formulas, solved examples, and hands-on exercises. If you want to perform common statistical analyses and learn a wide range of techniques without getting in over your head, this is your book.Learn basic concepts of measurement and probability theory, data management, and research designDiscover basic statistical procedures, including correlation, the t-test, the chi-square and Fisher’s exact tests, and techniques for analyzing nonparametric dataLearn advanced techniques based on the general linear model, including ANOVA, ANCOVA, multiple linear regression, and logistic regressionUse and interpret statistics for business and quality improvement, medical and public health, and education and psychologyCommunicate with statistics and critique statistical information presented by others
The authors first present an overview of publicly available baseball datasets and a gentle introduction to the type of data structures and exploratory and data management capabilities of R. They also cover the traditional graphics functions in the base package and introduce more sophisticated graphical displays available through the lattice and ggplot2 packages. Much of the book illustrates the use of R through popular sabermetrics topics, including the Pythagorean formula, runs expectancy, career trajectories, simulation of games and seasons, patterns of streaky behavior of players, and fielding measures. Each chapter contains exercises that encourage readers to perform their own analyses using R. All of the datasets and R code used in the text are available online.
This book helps readers answer questions about baseball teams, players, and strategy using large, publically available datasets. It offers detailed instructions on downloading the datasets and putting them into formats that simplify data exploration and analysis. Through the book’s various examples, readers will learn about modern sabermetrics and be able to conduct their own baseball analyses.
Advanced stats give hockeyÍs powerbrokers an edge, and now fans can get in on the action. Stat Shot is a fun and informative guide hockey fans can use to understand and enjoy what analytics says about team building, a playerÍs junior numbers, measuring faceoff success, recording save percentage, the most one-sided trades in history, and everything you ever wanted to know about shot-based metrics. Acting as an invaluable supplement to traditional analysis, Stat Shot can be used to test the validity of conventional wisdom, and to gain insight into what teams are doing behind the scenes „ or maybe what they should be doing.
Whether looking for a reference for leading-edge research and hard-to-find statistical data, or for passionate and engaging storytelling, Stat Shot belongs on every serious hockey fanÍs bookshelf.
The author begins with basic characteristics of financial timeseries data before covering three main topics:Analysis and application of univariate financial timeseriesThe return series of multiple assetsBayesian inference in finance methods
Key features of the new edition include additional coverage ofmodern day topics such as arbitrage, pair trading, realizedvolatility, and credit risk modeling; a smooth transition fromS-Plus to R; and expanded empirical financial data sets.
The overall objective of the book is to provide some knowledgeof financial time series, introduce some statistical tools usefulfor analyzing these series and gain experience in financialapplications of various econometric methods.
". . . [this book] should be on the shelf of everyone interestedin . . . longitudinal data analysis."
—Journal of the American Statistical Association
Features newly developed topics and applications of theanalysis of longitudinal data
Applied Longitudinal Analysis, Second Edition presentsmodern methods for analyzing data from longitudinal studies and nowfeatures the latest state-of-the-art techniques. The bookemphasizes practical, rather than theoretical, aspects of methodsfor the analysis of diverse types of longitudinal data that can beapplied across various fields of study, from the health and medicalsciences to the social and behavioral sciences.
The authors incorporate their extensive academic and researchexperience along with various updates that have been made inresponse to reader feedback. The Second Edition features six newlyadded chapters that explore topics currently evolving in the field,including:Fixed effects and mixed effects modelsMarginal models and generalized estimating equationsApproximate methods for generalized linear mixed effectsmodelsMultiple imputation and inverse probability weightedmethodsSmoothing methods for longitudinal dataSample size and power
Each chapter presents methods in the setting of applications todata sets drawn from the health sciences. New problem sets havebeen added to many chapters, and a related website features sampleprograms and computer output using SAS, Stata, and R, as well asdata sets and supplemental slides to facilitate a completeunderstanding of the material.
With its strong emphasis on multidisciplinary applications andthe interpretation of results, Applied LongitudinalAnalysis, Second Edition is an excellent book for courses onstatistics in the health and medical sciences at theupper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book also serves as avaluable reference for researchers and professionals in themedical, public health, and pharmaceutical fields as well as thosein social and behavioral sciences who would like to learn moreabout analyzing longitudinal data.
The assumption that metrics comparing us to an average—like GPAs, personality test results, and performance review ratings—reveal something meaningful about our potential is so ingrained in our consciousness that we don’t even question it. That assumption, says Harvard’s Todd Rose, is spectacularly—and scientifically—wrong.
In The End of Average, Rose, a rising star in the new field of the science of the individual shows that no one is average. Not you. Not your kids. Not your employees. This isn’t hollow sloganeering—it’s a mathematical fact with enormous practical consequences. But while we know people learn and develop in distinctive ways, these unique patterns of behaviors are lost in our schools and businesses which have been designed around the mythical “average person.” This average-size-fits-all model ignores our differences and fails at recognizing talent. It’s time to change it.
Weaving science, history, and his personal experiences as a high school dropout, Rose offers a powerful alternative to understanding individuals through averages: the three principles of individuality. The jaggedness principle (talent is always jagged), the context principle (traits are a myth), and the pathways principle (we all walk the road less traveled) help us understand our true uniqueness—and that of others—and how to take full advantage of individuality to gain an edge in life.
Read this powerful manifesto in the ranks of Drive, Quiet, and Mindset—and you won’t see averages or talent in the same way again.
- Calculating descriptive statistics
- Measures of central tendency: mean, median, and mode
- Variance analysis
- Inferential statistics
- Hypothesis testing
- Organizing data into statistical charts and tables
· Downloadable data sets
· Library of computer programs in SAS, SPSS, Stata, HLM, MLwiN, and more
· Additional material for data analysis
The authors present the material in an accessible style and motivate concepts using real-world examples. Throughout, they use stories to uncover connections between the fundamental distributions in statistics and conditioning to reduce complicated problems to manageable pieces.
The book includes many intuitive explanations, diagrams, and practice problems. Each chapter ends with a section showing how to perform relevant simulations and calculations in R, a free statistical software environment.
Hate math? No sweat. You’ll be amazed at how little you need. Like math? Optional "Equation Blackboard" sections reveal the mathematical foundations of statistics right before your eyes. If you need to understand, evaluate, or use statistics in business, academia, or anywhere else, this is the book you've been searching for!
But Hand is no believer in superstitions, prophecies, or the paranormal. His definition of "miracle" is thoroughly rational. No mystical or supernatural explanation is necessary to understand why someone is lucky enough to win the lottery twice, or is destined to be hit by lightning three times and still survive. All we need, Hand argues, is a firm grounding in a powerful set of laws: the laws of inevitability, of truly large numbers, of selection, of the probability lever, and of near enough.
Together, these constitute Hand's groundbreaking Improbability Principle. And together, they explain why we should not be so surprised to bump into a friend in a foreign country, or to come across the same unfamiliar word four times in one day. Hand wrestles with seemingly less explicable questions as well: what the Bible and Shakespeare have in common, why financial crashes are par for the course, and why lightning does strike the same place (and the same person) twice. Along the way, he teaches us how to use the Improbability Principle in our own lives—including how to cash in at a casino and how to recognize when a medicine is truly effective.
An irresistible adventure into the laws behind "chance" moments and a trusty guide for understanding the world and universe we live in, The Improbability Principle will transform how you think about serendipity and luck, whether it's in the world of business and finance or you're merely sitting in your backyard, tossing a ball into the air and wondering where it will land.
Among the topics included are how to combine plot statements to create custom graphs; customizing graph axes, legends, and insets; advanced features, such as annotation and attribute maps; tips and tricks for creating the optimal graph for the intended usage; real-world examples from the health and life sciences domain; and ODS styles.
The procedures in "Statistical Graphics Procedures by Example" are specifically designed for the creation of analytical graphs. That makes this book a must-read for analysts and statisticians in the health care, clinical trials, financial, and insurance industries. However, you will find that the examples here apply to all fields.
Recent advances in the field, particularly Parrondo's paradox, have triggered a surge of interest in the statistical and mathematical theory behind gambling. This interest was acknowledge in the motion picture, "21," inspired by the true story of the MIT students who mastered the art of card counting to reap millions from the Vegas casinos. Richard Epstein's classic book on gambling and its mathematical analysis covers the full range of games from penny matching to blackjack, from Tic-Tac-Toe to the stock market (including Edward Thorp's warrant-hedging analysis). He even considers whether statistical inference can shed light on the study of paranormal phenomena. Epstein is witty and insightful, a pleasure to dip into and read and rewarding to study. The book is written at a fairly sophisticated mathematical level; this is not "Gambling for Dummies" or "How To Beat The Odds Without Really Trying." A background in upper-level undergraduate mathematics is helpful for understanding this work.
o Comprehensive and exciting analysis of all major casino games and variants o Covers a wide range of interesting topics not covered in other books on the subject o Depth and breadth of its material is unique compared to other books of this nature
Richard Epstein's website: www.gamblingtheory.net
The second edition adds a discussion of vector auto-regressive, structural vector auto-regressive, and structural vector error-correction models. To analyze the interactions between the investigated variables, further impulse response function and forecast error variance decompositions are introduced as well as forecasting. The author explains how these model types relate to each other.
"Seamless R and C++ integration with Rcpp" is simply a wonderful book. For anyone who uses C/C++ and R, it is an indispensable resource. The writing is outstanding. A huge bonus is the section on applications. This section covers the matrix packages Armadillo and Eigen and the GNU Scientific Library as well as RInside which enables you to use R inside C++. These applications are what most of us need to know to really do scientific programming with R and C++. I love this book. -- Robert McCulloch, University of Chicago Booth School of Business
Rcpp is now considered an essential package for anybody doing serious computational research using R. Dirk's book is an excellent companion and takes the reader from a gentle introduction to more advanced applications via numerous examples and efficiency enhancing gems. The book is packed with all you might have ever wanted to know about Rcpp, its cousins (RcppArmadillo, RcppEigen .etc.), modules, package development and sugar. Overall, this book is a must-have on your shelf. -- Sanjog Misra, UCLA Anderson School of Management
The Rcpp package represents a major leap forward for scientific computations with R. With very few lines of C++ code, one has R's data structures readily at hand for further computations in C++. Hence, high-level numerical programming can be made in C++ almost as easily as in R, but often with a substantial speed gain. Dirk is a crucial person in these developments, and his book takes the reader from the first fragile steps on to using the full Rcpp machinery. A very recommended book! -- Søren Højsgaard, Department of Mathematical Sciences, Aalborg University, Denmark
"Seamless R and C ++ Integration with Rcpp" provides the first comprehensive introduction to Rcpp. Rcpp has become the most widely-used language extension for R, and is deployed by over one-hundred different CRAN and BioConductor packages. Rcpp permits users to pass scalars, vectors, matrices, list or entire R objects back and forth between R and C++ with ease. This brings the depth of the R analysis framework together with the power, speed, and efficiency of C++.
Dirk Eddelbuettel has been a contributor to CRAN for over a decade and maintains around twenty packages. He is the Debian/Ubuntu maintainer for R and other quantitative software, edits the CRAN Task Views for Finance and High-Performance Computing, is a co-founder of the annual R/Finance conference, and an editor of the Journal of Statistical Software. He holds a Ph.D. in Mathematical Economics from EHESS (Paris), and works in Chicago as a Senior Quantitative Analyst.
RStudio Master Instructor Garrett Grolemund not only teaches you how to program, but also shows you how to get more from R than just visualizing and modeling data. You’ll gain valuable programming skills and support your work as a data scientist at the same time.Work hands-on with three practical data analysis projects based on casino gamesStore, retrieve, and change data values in your computer’s memoryWrite programs and simulations that outperform those written by typical R usersUse R programming tools such as if else statements, for loops, and S3 classesLearn how to write lightning-fast vectorized R codeTake advantage of R’s package system and debugging toolsPractice and apply R programming concepts as you learn them
addresses tasks that nearly every SAS programmer needs to do - that is, make
sure that data errors are located and corrected. This book develops and
demonstrates data cleaning programs and macros that you can use as written or
modify for your own special data cleaning needs.
Treating these topics together takes advantage of all they have in common. The authors point out the many-shared elements in the methods they present for selecting, estimating, checking, and interpreting each of these models. They also show that these regression methods deal with confounding, mediation, and interaction of causal effects in essentially the same way.
The examples, analyzed using Stata, are drawn from the biomedical context but generalize to other areas of application. While a first course in statistics is assumed, a chapter reviewing basic statistical methods is included. Some advanced topics are covered but the presentation remains intuitive. A brief introduction to regression analysis of complex surveys and notes for further reading are provided. For many students and researchers learning to use these methods, this one book may be all they need to conduct and interpret multipredictor regression analyses.
The authors are on the faculty in the Division of Biostatistics, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, and are authors or co-authors of more than 200 methodological as well as applied papers in the biological and biomedical sciences. The senior author, Charles E. McCulloch, is head of the Division and author of Generalized Linear Mixed Models (2003), Generalized, Linear, and Mixed Models (2000), and Variance Components (1992).
From the reviews:
"This book provides a unified introduction to the regression methods listed in the title...The methods are well illustrated by data drawn from medical studies...A real strength of this book is the careful discussion of issues common to all of the multipredictor methods covered." Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 2005
"This book is not just for biostatisticians. It is, in fact, a very good, and relatively nonmathematical, overview of multipredictor regression models. Although the examples are biologically oriented, they are generally easy to understand and follow...I heartily recommend the book" Technometrics, February 2006
"Overall, the text provides an overview of regression methods that is particularly strong in its breadth of coverage and emphasis on insight in place of mathematical detail. As intended, this well-unified approach should appeal to students who learn conceptually and verbally." Journal of the American Statistical Association, March 2006
This text is intended for a broad audience as both an introduction to predictive models as well as a guide to applying them. Non-mathematical readers will appreciate the intuitive explanations of the techniques while an emphasis on problem-solving with real data across a wide variety of applications will aid practitioners who wish to extend their expertise. Readers should have knowledge of basic statistical ideas, such as correlation and linear regression analysis. While the text is biased against complex equations, a mathematical background is needed for advanced topics.
The roller coaster of romance is hard to quantify; defining how lovers might feel from a set of simple equations is impossible. But that doesn’t mean that mathematics isn’t a crucial tool for understanding love.
Love, like most things in life, is full of patterns. And mathematics is ultimately the study of patterns—from predicting the weather to the fluctuations of the stock market, the movement of planets or the growth of cities. These patterns twist and turn and warp and evolve just as the rituals of love do.
In The Mathematics of Love, Dr. Hannah Fry takes the reader on a fascinating journey through the patterns that define our love lives, applying mathematical formulas to the most common yet complex questions pertaining to love: What’s the chance of finding love? What’s the probability that it will last? How do online dating algorithms work, exactly? Can game theory help us decide who to approach in a bar? At what point in your dating life should you settle down?
From evaluating the best strategies for online dating to defining the nebulous concept of beauty, Dr. Fry proves—with great insight, wit, and fun—that math is a surprisingly useful tool to negotiate the complicated, often baffling, sometimes infuriating, always interesting, mysteries of love.
This volume demonstrates that the study of probability can be fun, challenging, and relevant — both to daily life and to modern scientific thought. Lucid, well-written chapters introduce the reader to the concept of possibilities, including combinations and permutations; probabilities, expectations (utility, decision making, more), events, rules of probability, conditional probabilities, probability distributions, the law of large numbers, including Chebyshev’s theorem, and more.
Numerous exercises throughout the text are designed to reinforce the methods and ideas explained in the book. Answers to the odd-numbered exercises are provided. A bibliography and summary round out this valuable introduction that will be of great help to anyone engaged in business, social sciences, statistical work, game theory, or just the business of living.
This book is ideal for anyone who likes puzzles, brainteasers, games, gambling, magic tricks, and those who want to apply math and science to everyday circumstances. Several hacks in the first chapter alone-such as the "central limit theorem,", which allows you to know everything by knowing just a little-serve as sound approaches for marketing and other business objectives. Using the tools of inferential statistics, you can understand the way probability works, discover relationships, predict events with uncanny accuracy, and even make a little money with a well-placed wager here and there.
Statistics Hacks presents useful techniques from statistics, educational and psychological measurement, and experimental research to help you solve a variety of problems in business, games, and life. You'll learn how to:Play smart when you play Texas Hold 'Em, blackjack, roulette, dice games, or even the lotteryDesign your own winnable bar bets to make money and amaze your friendsPredict the outcomes of baseball games, know when to "go for two" in football, and anticipate the winners of other sporting events with surprising accuracyDemystify amazing coincidences and distinguish the truly random from the only seemingly random--even keep your iPod's "random" shuffle honestSpot fraudulent data, detect plagiarism, and break codesHow to isolate the effects of observation on the thing observed
Whether you're a statistics enthusiast who does calculations in your sleep or a civilian who is entertained by clever solutions to interesting problems, Statistics Hacks has tools to give you an edge over the world's slim odds.
"It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006)
A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory
Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this Anniversary Edition builds on its strong foundation of measure theory and probability with Billingsley's unique writing style. In recognition of 35 years of publication, impacting tens of thousands of readers, this Anniversary Edition has been completely redesigned in a new, open and user-friendly way in order to appeal to university-level students.
This book adds a new foreward by Steve Lally of the Statistics Department at The University of Chicago in order to underscore the many years of successful publication and world-wide popularity and emphasize the educational value of this book. The Anniversary Edition contains features including:An improved treatment of Brownian motionReplacement of queuing theory with ergodic theoryTheory and applications used to illustrate real-life situationsOver 300 problems with corresponding, intensive notes and solutionsUpdated bibliographyAn extensive supplement of additional notes on the problems and chapter commentaries
Patrick Billingsley was a first-class, world-renowned authority in probability and measure theory at a leading U.S. institution of higher education. He continued to be an influential probability theorist until his unfortunate death in 2011. Billingsley earned his Bachelor's Degree in Engineering from the U.S. Naval Academy where he served as an officer. he went on to receive his Master's Degree and doctorate in Mathematics from Princeton University.Among his many professional awards was the Mathematical Association of America's Lester R. Ford Award for mathematical exposition. His achievements through his long and esteemed career have solidified Patrick Billingsley's place as a leading authority in the field and been a large reason for his books being regarded as classics.
This Anniversary Edition of Probability and Measure offers advanced students, scientists, and engineers an integrated introduction to measure theory and probability. Like the previous editions, this Anniversary Edition is a key resource for students of mathematics, statistics, economics, and a wide variety of disciplines that require a solid understanding of probability theory.
The Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo provides a reference for the broad audience of developers and users of MCMC methodology interested in keeping up with cutting-edge theory and applications. The first half of the book covers MCMC foundations, methodology, and algorithms. The second half considers the use of MCMC in a variety of practical applications including in educational research, astrophysics, brain imaging, ecology, and sociology.
The in-depth introductory section of the book allows graduate students and practicing scientists new to MCMC to become thoroughly acquainted with the basic theory, algorithms, and applications. The book supplies detailed examples and case studies of realistic scientific problems presenting the diversity of methods used by the wide-ranging MCMC community. Those familiar with MCMC methods will find this book a useful refresher of current theory and recent developments.
"This book is . . . an excellent source of examples forregression analysis. It has been and still is readily readable andunderstandable."
—Journal of the American StatisticalAssociation Regression analysis is a conceptually simplemethod for investigating relationships among variables. Carryingout a successful application of regression analysis, however,requires a balance of theoretical results, empirical rules, andsubjective judgment. Regression Analysis by Example, FifthEdition has been expanded and thoroughly updated to reflectrecent advances in the field. The emphasis continues to be onexploratory data analysis rather than statistical theory. The bookoffers in-depth treatment of regression diagnostics,transformation, multicollinearity, logistic regression, and robustregression.
The book now includes a new chapter on the detection andcorrection of multicollinearity, while also showcasing the use ofthe discussed methods on newly added data sets from the fields ofengineering, medicine, and business. The Fifth Edition alsoexplores additional topics, including:Surrogate ridge regressionFitting nonlinear modelsErrors in variablesANOVA for designed experiments
Methods of regression analysis are clearly demonstrated, andexamples containing the types of irregularities commonlyencountered in the real world are provided. Each example isolatesone or two techniques and features detailed discussions, therequired assumptions, and the evaluated success of each technique.Additionally, methods described throughout the book can be carriedout with most of the currently available statistical softwarepackages, such as the software package R.
Regression Analysis by Example, Fifth Edition is suitablefor anyone with an understanding of elementary statistics.
In Mathletics, Wayne Winston describes the mathematical methods that top coaches and managers use to evaluate players and improve team performance, and gives math enthusiasts the practical tools they need to enhance their understanding and enjoyment of their favorite sports--and maybe even gain the outside edge to winning bets. Mathletics blends fun math problems with sports stories of actual games, teams, and players, along with personal anecdotes from Winston's work as a sports consultant. Winston uses easy-to-read tables and illustrations to illuminate the techniques and ideas he presents, and all the necessary math concepts--such as arithmetic, basic statistics and probability, and Monte Carlo simulations--are fully explained in the examples.
After reading Mathletics, you will understand why baseball teams should almost never bunt, why football overtime systems are unfair, why points, rebounds, and assists aren't enough to determine who's the NBA's best player--and much, much more. In a new epilogue, Winston discusses the stats and numerical analysis behind some recent sporting events, such as how the Dallas Mavericks used analytics to become the 2011 NBA champions.
Machine Learning: Hands-On for Developers and TechnicalProfessionals provides hands-on instruction and fully-codedworking examples for the most common machine learning techniquesused by developers and technical professionals. The book contains abreakdown of each ML variant, explaining how it works and how it isused within certain industries, allowing readers to incorporate thepresented techniques into their own work as they follow along. Acore tenant of machine learning is a strong focus on datapreparation, and a full exploration of the various types oflearning algorithms illustrates how the proper tools can help anydeveloper extract information and insights from existing data. Thebook includes a full complement of Instructor's Materials tofacilitate use in the classroom, making this resource useful forstudents and as a professional reference.
At its core, machine learning is a mathematical, algorithm-basedtechnology that forms the basis of historical data mining andmodern big data science. Scientific analysis of big data requires aworking knowledge of machine learning, which forms predictionsbased on known properties learned from training data. MachineLearning is an accessible, comprehensive guide for thenon-mathematician, providing clear guidance that allows readersto:Learn the languages of machine learning including Hadoop,Mahout, and WekaUnderstand decision trees, Bayesian networks, and artificialneural networksImplement Association Rule, Real Time, and Batch learningDevelop a strategic plan for safe, effective, and efficientmachine learning
By learning to construct a system that can learn from data,readers can increase their utility across industries. Machinelearning sits at the core of deep dive data analysis andvisualization, which is increasingly in demand as companiesdiscover the goldmine hiding in their existing data. For the techprofessional involved in data science, Machine Learning:Hands-On for Developers and Technical Professionals providesthe skills and techniques required to dig deeper.