Providing both a theoretical and practical approach to the underlying mathematical theory behind financial models, Measure, Probability, and Mathematical Finance: A Problem-Oriented Approach presents important concepts and results in measure theory, probability theory, stochastic processes, and stochastic calculus. Measure theory is indispensable to the rigorous development of probability theory and is also necessary to properly address martingale measures, the change of numeraire theory, and LIBOR market models. In addition, probability theory is presented to facilitate the development of stochastic processes, including martingales and Brownian motions, while stochastic processes and stochastic calculus are discussed to model asset prices and develop derivative pricing models.
The authors promote a problem-solving approach when applying mathematics in real-world situations, and readers are encouraged to address theorems and problems with mathematical rigor. In addition, Measure, Probability, and Mathematical Finance features:A comprehensive list of concepts and theorems from measure theory, probability theory, stochastic processes, and stochastic calculus Over 500 problems with hints and select solutions to reinforce basic concepts and important theorems Classic derivative pricing models in mathematical finance that have been developed and published since the seminal work of Black and Scholes Measure, Probability, and Mathematical Finance: A Problem-Oriented Approach is an ideal textbook for introductory quantitative courses in business, economics, and mathematical finance at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book is also a useful reference for readers who need to build their mathematical skills in order to better understand the mathematical theory of derivative pricing models.
Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.
This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.
The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.
However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.
Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
PRAISE FOR FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS:
Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time
A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
“[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”
–Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink
“The book that rolled down Wall Street like a hand grenade.”
–Maggie Mahar, author of Bull! A History of the Boom, 1982—1999
“Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.”
–Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas Evolving
“Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould.”
–Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play: How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate
“We need a book like this. . . . Fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.”
–Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance
“Powerful . . . loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance.”
The book concentrates on the following important algorithms: C4.5, k-Means, SVM, Apriori, EM, PageRank, AdaBoost, kNN, Naive Bayes, and CART. Examples illustrate how each algorithm works and highlight its overall performance in a real-world application. The text covers key topics—including classification, clustering, statistical learning, association analysis, and link mining—in data mining research and development as well as in data mining, machine learning, and artificial intelligence courses.
By naming the leading algorithms in this field, this book encourages the use of data mining techniques in a broader realm of real-world applications. It should inspire more data mining researchers to further explore the impact and novel research issues of these algorithms.
For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.
And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.
New York Times Bestseller
“Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”
—New York Times Book Review
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism."
—New York Review of Books
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
Each chapter presents a self-contained lesson on a key SQL concept or technique, with numerous illustrations and annotated examples. Exercises at the end of each chapter let you practice the skills you learn. With this book, you will:
Move quickly through SQL basics and learn several advanced featuresUse SQL data statements to generate, manipulate, and retrieve dataCreate database objects, such as tables, indexes, and constraints, using SQL schema statementsLearn how data sets interact with queries, and understand the importance of subqueriesConvert and manipulate data with SQL's built-in functions, and use conditional logic in data statements
Knowledge of SQL is a must for interacting with data. With Learning SQL, you'll quickly learn how to put the power and flexibility of this language to work.
Complexity surrounds us. We have too much email, juggle multiple remotes, and hack through thickets of regulations from phone contracts to health plans. But complexity isn’t destiny. Sull and Eisenhardt argue there’s a better way. By developing a few simple yet effective rules, people can best even the most complex problems.
In Simple Rules, Sull and Eisenhardt masterfully challenge how we think about complexity and offer a new lens on how to cope. They take us on a surprising tour of what simple rules are, where they come from, and why they work. The authors illustrate the six kinds o f rules that really matter - for helping artists find creativity and the Federal Reserve set interest rates, for keeping birds on track and Zipcar members organized, and for how insomniacs can sleep and mountain climbers stay safe.
Drawing on rigorous research and riveting stories, the authors ingeniously find insights in unexpected places, from the way Tina Fey codified her experience at Saturday Night Live into rules for producing 30 Rock (rule five: never tell a crazy person he’s crazy) to burglars’ rules for robbery (“avoid houses with a car parked outside”) to Japanese engineers mimicking the rules of slime molds to optimize Tokyo’s rail system. The authors offer fresh information and practical tips on fixing old rules and learning new ones.
Whether you’re struggling with information overload, pursuing opportunities with limited resources, or just trying to change your bad habits, Simple Rules provides powerful insight into how and why simplicity tames complexity.
This book shows you how to validate your initial idea, find the right customers, decide what to build, how to monetize your business, and how to spread the word. Packed with more than thirty case studies and insights from over a hundred business experts, Lean Analytics provides you with hard-won, real-world information no entrepreneur can afford to go without.Understand Lean Startup, analytics fundamentals, and the data-driven mindsetLook at six sample business models and how they map to new ventures of all sizesFind the One Metric That Matters to youLearn how to draw a line in the sand, so you’ll know it’s time to move forwardApply Lean Analytics principles to large enterprises and established products
In the late 1980s, Japanese scientists were trying to figure out the economic damage that would be caused if a catastrophic earthquake destroyed Tokyo. The answer was bleak, but not for Japan. Kaoru Oda, an economist who worked for Tokai Bank, speculated that the United States would end up paying the most. Why? Japan owned trillions of dollars’ worth of foreign liquid assets and investments. These assets, which the world depended on, would be sold, forcing countries into the precarious position of having to return large amounts of money they might not have. After the recent earthquake, Michael Lewis reexamined this hypothesis and came to a surprising conclusion. With his characteristic sense of humor and wit, Lewis, once again, explains the inner workings of a financial catastrophe.
“How a Tokyo Earthquake Could Devastate Wall Street” appears in Michael Lewis’s book The Money Culture.
Updated to reflect recent advances in MySQL and InnoDB performance, features, and tools, this third edition not only offers specific examples of how MySQL works, it also teaches you why this system works as it does, with illustrative stories and case studies that demonstrate MySQL’s principles in action. With this book, you’ll learn how to think in MySQL.Learn the effects of new features in MySQL 5.5, including stored procedures, partitioned databases, triggers, and viewsImplement improvements in replication, high availability, and clusteringAchieve high performance when running MySQL in the cloudOptimize advanced querying features, such as full-text searchesTake advantage of modern multi-core CPUs and solid-state disksExplore backup and recovery strategies—including new tools for hot online backups
Two of the authors co-wrote The Elements of Statistical Learning (Hastie, Tibshirani and Friedman, 2nd edition 2009), a popular reference book for statistics and machine learning researchers. An Introduction to Statistical Learning covers many of the same topics, but at a level accessible to a much broader audience. This book is targeted at statisticians and non-statisticians alike who wish to use cutting-edge statistical learning techniques to analyze their data. The text assumes only a previous course in linear regression and no knowledge of matrix algebra.
Based on an MBA course Provost has taught at New York University over the past ten years, Data Science for Business provides examples of real-world business problems to illustrate these principles. You’ll not only learn how to improve communication between business stakeholders and data scientists, but also how participate intelligently in your company’s data science projects. You’ll also discover how to think data-analytically, and fully appreciate how data science methods can support business decision-making.Understand how data science fits in your organization—and how you can use it for competitive advantageTreat data as a business asset that requires careful investment if you’re to gain real valueApproach business problems data-analytically, using the data-mining process to gather good data in the most appropriate wayLearn general concepts for actually extracting knowledge from dataApply data science principles when interviewing data science job candidates
If you want to find out how to use Python to start answering critical questions of your data, pick up Python Machine Learning – whether you want to get started from scratch or want to extend your data science knowledge, this is an essential and unmissable resource.What You Will LearnExplore how to use different machine learning models to ask different questions of your dataLearn how to build neural networks using Keras and TheanoFind out how to write clean and elegant Python code that will optimize the strength of your algorithmsDiscover how to embed your machine learning model in a web application for increased accessibilityPredict continuous target outcomes using regression analysisUncover hidden patterns and structures in data with clusteringOrganize data using effective pre-processing techniquesGet to grips with sentiment analysis to delve deeper into textual and social media dataIn Detail
Machine learning and predictive analytics are transforming the way businesses and other organizations operate. Being able to understand trends and patterns in complex data is critical to success, becoming one of the key strategies for unlocking growth in a challenging contemporary marketplace. Python can help you deliver key insights into your data – its unique capabilities as a language let you build sophisticated algorithms and statistical models that can reveal new perspectives and answer key questions that are vital for success.
Python Machine Learning gives you access to the world of predictive analytics and demonstrates why Python is one of the world's leading data science languages. If you want to ask better questions of data, or need to improve and extend the capabilities of your machine learning systems, this practical data science book is invaluable. Covering a wide range of powerful Python libraries, including scikit-learn, Theano, and Keras, and featuring guidance and tips on everything from sentiment analysis to neural networks, you'll soon be able to answer some of the most important questions facing you and your organization.Style and approach
Python Machine Learning connects the fundamental theoretical principles behind machine learning to their practical application in a way that focuses you on asking and answering the right questions. It walks you through the key elements of Python and its powerful machine learning libraries, while demonstrating how to get to grips with a range of statistical models.
“The leading indicators” shape our lives intimately, but few of us know where these numbers come from, what they mean, or why they rule the world. GDP, inflation, unemployment, trade, and a host of averages determine whether we feel optimistic or pessimistic about the country’s future and our own. They dictate whether businesses hire and invest, or fire and hunker down, whether governments spend trillions or try to reduce debt, whether individuals marry, buy a car, get a mortgage, or look for a job.
Zachary Karabell tackles the history and the limitations of each of our leading indicators. The solution is not to invent new indicators, but to become less dependent on a few simple figures and tap into the data revolution. We have unparalleled power to find the information we need, but only if we let go of the outdated indicators that lead and mislead us.
New to the fourth edition are the topics of common and special causes, outliers, and risk management tools. Besides the new topics, many current topics have been expanded to reflect changes in auditing practices since 2004 and ISO 19011 guidance, and they have been rewritten to promote the common elements of all types of system and process audits.
The handbook can be used by new auditors to gain an understanding of auditing. Experienced auditors will find it to be a useful reference. Audit managers and quality managers can use the handbook as a guide for leading their auditing programs. The handbook may also be used by trainers and educators as source material for teaching the fundamentals of auditing.
- Create pivot tables from worksheet databases.
- Rearrange pivot tables by dragging, swapping, and nesting fields.
- Customize pivot tables with styles, layouts, totals, and subtotals.
- Combine numbers, dates, times, or text values into custom groups.
- Calculate common statistics or create custom formulas.
- Filter data that you don't want to see.
- Create and customize pivot charts.
- Unlink a pivot table from its source data.
- Control references to pivot table cells.
- Plenty of tips, tricks, and timesavers.
- Fully cross-referenced, linked, and searchable.
1. Pivot Table Basics
2. Nesting Fields
3. Grouping Items
4. Calculations and Custom Formulas
5. Filtering Data
6. Charting Pivot Tables
7. Tricks with Pivot Tables
The example code for this unique data science book is maintained in a public GitHub repository. It’s designed to be easily accessible through a turnkey virtual machine that facilitates interactive learning with an easy-to-use collection of IPython Notebooks.
After defining the field, the book introduces different types of model formulations for relational data clustering, presents various algorithms for the corresponding models, and demonstrates applications of the models and algorithms through extensive experimental results. The authors cover six topics of relational data clustering:
Clustering on bi-type heterogeneous relational data Multi-type heterogeneous relational data Homogeneous relational data clustering Clustering on the most general case of relational data Individual relational clustering framework Recent research on evolutionary clustering
This book focuses on both practical algorithm derivation and theoretical framework construction for relational data clustering. It provides a complete, self-contained introduction to advances in the field.
So why is it so hard to make sound decisions? In Think Twice, now in paperback, Michael Mauboussin argues that we often fall victim to simplified mental routines that prevent us from coping with the complex realities inherent in important judgment calls. Yet these cognitive errors are preventable.
In this engaging book, Mauboussin shows us how to recognize and avoid common mental missteps. These include misunderstanding cause-and-effect linkages, not considering enough alternative possibilities in making a decision, and relying too much on experts.
Through vivid stories, the author presents memorable rules for avoiding each error and explains how to recognize when you should “think twice”—questioning your reasoning and adopting decision-making strategies that are far more effective, even if they seem counterintuitive. Armed with this awareness, you'll soon begin making sounder judgment calls that benefit (rather than hurt) your organization.
Let's face it, SQL is a deceptively simple language to learn, and many database developers never go far beyond the simple statement: SELECT columns FROM table WHERE conditions. But there is so much more you can do with the language. In the SQL Cookbook, experienced SQL developer Anthony Molinaro shares his favorite SQL techniques and features. You'll learn about:
Window functions, arguably the most significant enhancement to SQL in the past decade. If you're not using these, you're missing out
Powerful, database-specific features such as SQL Server's PIVOT and UNPIVOT operators, Oracle's MODEL clause, and PostgreSQL's very useful GENERATE_SERIES function
Pivoting rows into columns, reverse-pivoting columns into rows, using pivoting to facilitate inter-row calculations, and double-pivoting a result set
Bucketization, and why you should never use that term in Brooklyn.
How to create histograms, summarize data into buckets, perform aggregations over a moving range of values, generate running-totals and subtotals, and other advanced, data warehousing techniques
The technique of walking a string, which allows you to use SQL to parse through the characters, words, or delimited elements of a string
Written in O'Reilly's popular Problem/Solution/Discussion style, the SQL Cookbook is sure to please. Anthony's credo is: "When it comes down to it, we all go to work, we all have bills to pay, and we all want to go home at a reasonable time and enjoy what's still available of our days." The SQL Cookbook moves quickly from problem to solution, saving you time each step of the way.
Lawrence Weinstein and John Adam present an eclectic array of estimation problems that range from devilishly simple to quite sophisticated and from serious real-world concerns to downright silly ones. How long would it take a running faucet to fill the inverted dome of the Capitol? What is the total length of all the pickles consumed in the US in one year? What are the relative merits of internal-combustion and electric cars, of coal and nuclear energy? The problems are marvelously diverse, yet the skills to solve them are the same. The authors show how easy it is to derive useful ballpark estimates by breaking complex problems into simpler, more manageable ones--and how there can be many paths to the right answer. The book is written in a question-and-answer format with lots of hints along the way. It includes a handy appendix summarizing the few formulas and basic science concepts needed, and its small size and French-fold design make it conveniently portable. Illustrated with humorous pen-and-ink sketches, Guesstimation will delight popular-math enthusiasts and is ideal for the classroom.
This updated second edition provides guidance for database developers, advanced configuration for system administrators, and an overview of the concepts and use cases for other people on your project. Ideal for NoSQL newcomers and experienced MongoDB users alike, this guide provides numerous real-world schema design examples.Get started with MongoDB core concepts and vocabularyPerform basic write operations at different levels of safety and speedCreate complex queries, with options for limiting, skipping, and sorting resultsDesign an application that works well with MongoDBAggregate data, including counting, finding distinct values, grouping documents, and using MapReduceGather and interpret statistics about your collections and databasesSet up replica sets and automatic failover in MongoDBUse sharding to scale horizontally, and learn how it impacts applicationsDelve into monitoring, security and authentication, backup/restore, and other administrative tasks
Assuming no knowledge of programming, this book guides the reader through both programming and built-in functions to easily exploit MATLAB's extensive capabilities for tackling engineering problems. The book starts with programming concepts, such as variables, assignments, and selection statements, moves on to loops, and then solves problems using both the programming concept and the power of MATLAB. In-depth coverage is given to input/output, a topic fundamental to many engineering applications.Winner of a 2017 Textbook Excellence Award (Texty) from the Textbook and Academic Authors AssociationPresents programming concepts and MATLAB built-in functions side-by-sideOffers a systematic, step-by-step approach, building on concepts throughout the book and facilitating easier learningIncludes sections on common pitfalls and programming guidelines to direct students toward best practicesCombines basic programming concepts, built-in functions, and advanced topics for problem solving with MATLAB to make this book uniquely suitable for a wide range of courses teaching or using MATLAB across the curriculum
Rather than run through all possible scenarios, this pragmatic operations guide calls out what works, as demonstrated in critical deployments.Get a high-level overview of HDFS and MapReduce: why they exist and how they workPlan a Hadoop deployment, from hardware and OS selection to network requirementsLearn setup and configuration details with a list of critical propertiesManage resources by sharing a cluster across multiple groupsGet a runbook of the most common cluster maintenance tasksMonitor Hadoop clusters—and learn troubleshooting with the help of real-world war storiesUse basic tools and techniques to handle backup and catastrophic failure
Detailing the hows and the whys of successful Essbase implementation, the book arms you with simple yet powerful tools to meet your immediate needs, as well as the theoretical knowledge to proceed to the next level with Essbase. Infrastructure, data sourcing and transformation, database design, calculations, automation, APIs, reporting, and project implementation are covered by subject matter experts who work with the tools and techniques on a daily basis. In addition to practical cases that illustrate valuable lessons learned, the book offers:
Undocumented Secrets—Dan Pressman describes the previously unpublished and undocumented inner workings of the ASO Essbase engine. Authoritative Experts—If you have questions that no one else can solve, these 12 Essbase professionals are the ones who can answer them. Unpublished—Includes the only third-party guide to infrastructure. Infrastructure is easy to get wrong and can doom any Essbase project. Comprehensive—Let there never again be a question on how to create blocks or design BSO databases for performance—Dave Farnsworth provides the answers within. Innovative—Cameron Lackpour and Joe Aultman bring new and exciting solutions to persistent Essbase problems.
With a list of contributors as impressive as the program of presenters at a leading Essbase conference, this book offers unprecedented access to the insights and experiences of those at the forefront of the field. The previously unpublished material presented in these pages will give you the practical knowledge needed to use this powerful and intuitive tool to build highly useful analytical models, reporting systems, and forecasting applications.
Contrast Data Mining: Concepts, Algorithms, and Applications collects recent results from this specialized area of data mining that have previously been scattered in the literature, making them more accessible to researchers and developers in data mining and other fields. The book not only presents concepts and techniques for contrast data mining, but also explores the use of contrast mining to solve challenging problems in various scientific, medical, and business domains.
Learn from Real Case Studies of Contrast Mining Applications
In this volume, researchers from around the world specializing in architecture engineering, bioinformatics, computer science, medicine, and systems engineering focus on the mining and use of contrast patterns. They demonstrate many useful and powerful capabilities of a variety of contrast mining techniques and algorithms, including tree-based structures, zero-suppressed binary decision diagrams, data cube representations, and clustering algorithms. They also examine how contrast mining is used in leukemia characterization, discriminative gene transfer and microarray analysis, computational toxicology, spatial and image data classification, voting analysis, heart disease prediction, crime analysis, understanding customer behavior, genetic algorithms, and network security.
Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power.
Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention.
Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You’ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you’ve mastered these techniques, you’ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects.
• Learning the Bayesian “state of mind” and its practical implications
• Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference
• Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses
• Building and debugging models with PyMC
• Testing your model’s “goodness of fit”
• Opening the “black box” of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works
• Leveraging the power of the “Law of Large Numbers”
• Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning
• Using loss functions to measure an estimate’s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes
• Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size
• Overcoming the “exploration versus exploitation” dilemma: deciding when “pretty good” is good enough
• Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing
• Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available
Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.
R is both an object-oriented language and a functional language that is easy to learn, easy to use, and completely free. A large community of dedicated R users and programmers provides an excellent source of R code, functions, and data sets. R is also becoming adopted into commercial tools such as Oracle Database. Your investment in learning R is sure to pay off in the long term as R continues to grow into the go to language for statistical exploration and research.
Covers the freely-available R language for statistics Shows the use of R in specific uses case such as simulations, discrete probability solutions, one-way ANOVA analysis, and more Takes a hands-on and example-based approach incorporating best practices with clear explanations of the statistics being done
The first five chapters of this volume investigate advances in the use of instance-level, pairwise constraints for partitional and hierarchical clustering. The book then explores other types of constraints for clustering, including cluster size balancing, minimum cluster size,and cluster-level relational constraints.
It also describes variations of the traditional clustering under constraints problem as well as approximation algorithms with helpful performance guarantees.
The book ends by applying clustering with constraints to relational data, privacy-preserving data publishing, and video surveillance data. It discusses an interactive visual clustering approach, a distance metric learning approach, existential constraints, and automatically generated constraints.
With contributions from industrial researchers and leading academic experts who pioneered the field, this volume delivers thorough coverage of the capabilities and limitations of constrained clustering methods as well as introduces new types of constraints and clustering algorithms.
This book will help you:Become a contributor on a data science team Deploy a structured lifecycle approach to data analytics problems Apply appropriate analytic techniques and tools to analyzing big data Learn how to tell a compelling story with data to drive business action Prepare for EMC Proven Professional Data Science Certification
Corresponding data sets are available at www.wiley.com/go/9781118876138.
Get started discovering, analyzing, visualizing, and presenting data in a meaningful way today!
Chances are you already use Excel to perform some fairly routine calculations. Now the Excel Scientific and Engineering Cookbook shows you how to leverage Excel to perform more complex calculations, too, calculations that once fell in the domain of specialized tools. It does so by putting a smorgasbord of data analysis techniques right at your fingertips. The book shows how to perform these useful tasks and others:Use Excel and VBA in generalImport data from a variety of sourcesAnalyze dataPerform calculationsVisualize the results for interpretation and presentationUse Excel to solve specific science and engineering problems
Wherever possible, the Excel Scientific and Engineering Cookbook draws on real-world examples from a range of scientific disciplines such as biology, chemistry, and physics. This way, you'll be better prepared to solve the problems you face in your everyday scientific or engineering tasks.
High on practicality and low on theory, this quick, look-up reference provides instant solutions, or "recipes," to problems both basic and advanced. And like other books in O'Reilly's popular Cookbook format, each recipe also includes a discussion on how and why it works. As a result, you can take comfort in knowing that complete, practical answers are a mere page-flip away.
Hate math? No sweat. You’ll be amazed at how little you need. Like math? Optional "Equation Blackboard" sections reveal the mathematical foundations of statistics right before your eyes. If you need to understand, evaluate, or use statistics in business, academia, or anywhere else, this is the book you've been searching for!
Giving a broad perspective of the field from numerous vantage points, Text Mining: Classification, Clustering, and Applications focuses on statistical methods for text mining and analysis. It examines methods to automatically cluster and classify text documents and applies these methods in a variety of areas, including adaptive information filtering, information distillation, and text search.
The book begins with chapters on the classification of documents into predefined categories. It presents state-of-the-art algorithms and their use in practice. The next chapters describe novel methods for clustering documents into groups that are not predefined. These methods seek to automatically determine topical structures that may exist in a document corpus. The book concludes by discussing various text mining applications that have significant implications for future research and industrial use.
There is no doubt that text mining will continue to play a critical role in the development of future information systems and advances in research will be instrumental to their success. This book captures the technical depth and immense practical potential of text mining, guiding readers to a sound appreciation of this burgeoning field.
This book offers practical answers to some of the hardest questions faced by PL/SQL developers, including:What is the best way to write the SQL logic in my application code?
How should I write my packages so they can be leveraged by my entire team of developers?
How can I make sure that all my team's programs handle and record errors consistently?Oracle PL/SQL Best Practices summarizes PL/SQL best practices in nine major categories: overall PL/SQL application development; programming standards; program testing, tracing, and debugging; variables and data structures; control logic; error handling; the use of SQL in PL/SQL; building procedures, functions, packages, and triggers; and overall program performance.
This book is a concise and entertaining guide that PL/SQL developers will turn to again and again as they seek out ways to write higher quality code and more successful applications.
"This book presents ideas that make the difference between a successful project and one that never gets off the ground. It goes beyond just listing a set of rules, and provides realistic scenarios that help the reader understand where the rules come from. This book should be required reading for any team of Oracle database professionals."
--Dwayne King, President, KRIDAN Consulting
Bassetti, a client, friend, and student of John Magee, one of the original authors, has converted the material on the craft of manual charting with TEKNIPLAT chart paper to modern computer software methods. In actuality, none of Magee’s concepts have proven invalid and some of his work predated modern concepts such as beta and volatility. In addition, Magee described a trend-following procedure that is so simple and so elegant that Bassetti has adapted it to enable the general investor to use it to replace the cranky Dow Theory. This procedure, called the Basing Points procedure, is extensively described in the new Tenth Edition along with new material on powerful moving average systems and Leverage Space Portfolio Model generously contributed by the formidable analyst, Ralph Vince., author of Handbook of Portfolio Mathematics.
See what’s new in the Tenth Edition:
Chapters on replacing Dow Theory Update of Dow Theory Record Deletion of extraneous material on manual charting New chapters on Stops and Basing Points New material on moving average systems New material on Ralph Vince’s Leverage Space Portfolio Model
So much has changed since the first edition, yet so much has remained the same. Everyone wants to know how to play the game. The foundational work of the discipline of technical analysis, this book gives you more than a technical formula for trading and investing, it gives you the knowledge and wisdom to craft long-term success.
addresses tasks that nearly every SAS programmer needs to do - that is, make
sure that data errors are located and corrected. This book develops and
demonstrates data cleaning programs and macros that you can use as written or
modify for your own special data cleaning needs.
Explaining the effectiveness of matrices as data analysis tools, the book illustrates the ability of matrix decompositions to provide more powerful analyses and to produce cleaner data than more mainstream techniques. The author explores the deep connections between matrix decompositions and structures within graphs, relating the PageRank algorithm of Google's search engine to singular value decomposition. He also covers dimensionality reduction, collaborative filtering, clustering, and spectral analysis. With numerous figures and examples, the book shows how matrix decompositions can be used to find documents on the Internet, look for deeply buried mineral deposits without drilling, explore the structure of proteins, detect suspicious emails or cell phone calls, and more.
Concentrating on data mining mechanics and applications, this resource helps you model large, complex datasets and investigate connections between standard data mining techniques and matrix decompositions.
The second edition adds a discussion of vector auto-regressive, structural vector auto-regressive, and structural vector error-correction models. To analyze the interactions between the investigated variables, further impulse response function and forecast error variance decompositions are introduced as well as forecasting. The author explains how these model types relate to each other.
The Silicon Jungle is a cautionary fictional tale of data mining’s promise and peril. Baluja raises ethical questions about contemporary technological innovations, and how minute details can be routinely pieced together into rich profiles that reveal our habits, goals, and secret desires—all ready to be exploited.
Crunch Big Data to optimize marketing and more!
Overwhelmed by all the Big Data now available to you? Not sure what questions to ask or how to ask them? Using Microsoft Excel and proven decision analytics techniques, you can distill all that data into manageable sets—and use them to optimize a wide variety of business and investment decisions. In Decision Analytics: Microsoft Excel, best selling statistics expert and consultant Conrad Carlberg will show you how—hands-on and step-by-step.
Carlberg guides you through using decision analytics to segment customers (or anything else) into sensible and actionable groups and clusters. Next, you’ll learn practical ways to optimize a wide spectrum of decisions in business and beyond—from pricing to cross-selling, hiring to investments—even facial recognition software uses the techniques discussed in this book!
Through realistic examples, Carlberg helps you understand the techniques and assumptions that underlie decision analytics and use simple Excel charts to intuitively grasp the results. With this foundation in place, you can perform your own analyses in Excel and work with results produced by advanced stats packages such as SAS and SPSS.
This book comes with an extensive collection of downloadable Excel workbooks you can easily adapt to your own unique requirements, plus VBA code to streamline several of its most complex techniques.Classify data according to existing categories or naturally occurring clusters of predictor variables Cut massive numbers of variables and records down to size, so you can get the answers you really need Utilize cluster analysis to find patterns of similarity for market research and many other applications Learn how multiple discriminant analysis helps you classify cases Use MANOVA to decide whether groups differ on multivariate centroids Use principal components to explore data, find patterns, and identify latent factors
Register your book for access to all sample workbooks, updates, and corrections as they become available at quepublishing.com/title/9780789751683.
The Concept and Object Modeling Notation (COMN) is able to cover the full spectrum of analysis and design. A single COMN model can represent the objects and concepts in the problem space, logical data design, and concrete NoSQL and SQL document, key-value, columnar, and relational database implementations. COMN models enable an unprecedented level of traceability of requirements to implementation. COMN models can also represent the static structure of software and the predicates that represent the patterns of meaning in databases.
This book will teach you:the simple and familiar graphical notation of COMN with its three basic shapes and four line styles how to think about objects, concepts, types, and classes in the real world, using the ordinary meanings of English words that aren’t tangled with confused techno-speak how to express logical data designs that are freer from implementation considerations than is possible in any other notation how to understand key-value, document, columnar, and table-oriented database designs in logical and physical terms how to use COMN to specify physical database implementations in any NoSQL or SQL database with the precision necessary for model-driven development
• Construct and interpret statistical charts and tables with Excel or OpenOffice.org Calc 3
• Work with mean, median, mode, standard deviation, Z scores, skewness, and other descriptive statistics
• Use probability and probability distributions
• Work with sampling distributions and confidence intervals
• Test hypotheses with Z, t, chi-square, ANOVA, and other techniques
• Perform powerful regression analysis and modeling
• Use multiple regression to develop models that contain several independent variables
• Master specific statistical techniques for quality and Six Sigma programs
About the Web Site
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