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A New York Times bestseller

"Brilliant, funny…the best math teacher you never had." —San Francisco Chronicle

Once considered tedious, the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has actually called "sexy." From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more.

For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.

And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.

Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.

Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.

This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.

The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.

However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.

Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time

A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
HOW SIMPLICITY TRUMPS COMPLEXITY IN NATURE, BUSINESS, AND LIFE
 
Complexity surrounds us. We have too much email, juggle multiple remotes, and hack through thickets of regulations from phone contracts to health plans. But complexity isn’t destiny. Sull and Eisenhardt argue there’s a better way. By developing a few simple yet effective rules, people can best even the most complex problems.
 
In Simple Rules, Sull and Eisenhardt masterfully challenge how we think about complexity and offer a new lens on how to cope. They take us on a surprising tour of what simple rules are, where they come from, and why they work. The authors illustrate the six kinds o f rules that really matter - for helping artists find creativity and the Federal Reserve set interest rates, for keeping birds on track and Zipcar members organized, and for how insomniacs can sleep and mountain climbers stay safe.
 
Drawing on rigorous research and riveting stories, the authors ingeniously find insights in unexpected places, from the way Tina Fey codified her experience at Saturday Night Live into rules for producing 30 Rock (rule five: never tell a crazy person he’s crazy) to burglars’ rules for robbery (“avoid houses with a car parked outside”) to Japanese engineers mimicking the rules of slime molds to optimize Tokyo’s rail system. The authors offer fresh information and practical tips on fixing old rules and learning new ones.
 
Whether you’re struggling with information overload, pursuing opportunities with limited resources, or just trying to change your bad habits, Simple Rules provides powerful insight into how and why simplicity tames complexity.
 
Emphasizing concepts and rationale over mathematical minutiae, this is the most widely used, complete, and accessible structural equation modeling (SEM) text. Continuing the tradition of using real data examples from a variety of disciplines, the significantly revised fourth edition incorporates recent developments such as Pearl's graphing theory and the structural causal model (SCM), measurement invariance, and more. Readers gain a comprehensive understanding of all phases of SEM, from data collection and screening to the interpretation and reporting of the results. Learning is enhanced by exercises with answers, rules to remember, and topic boxes. The companion website supplies data, syntax, and output for the book's examples--now including files for Amos, EQS, LISREL, Mplus, Stata, and R (lavaan).

New to This Edition
*Extensively revised to cover important new topics: Pearl's graphing theory and the SCM, causal inference frameworks, conditional process modeling, path models for longitudinal data, item response theory, and more.
*Chapters on best practices in all stages of SEM, measurement invariance in confirmatory factor analysis, and significance testing issues and bootstrapping.
*Expanded coverage of psychometrics.
*Additional computer tools: online files for all detailed examples, previously provided in EQS, LISREL, and Mplus, are now also given in Amos, Stata, and R (lavaan).
*Reorganized to cover the specification, identification, and analysis of observed variable models separately from latent variable models.

Pedagogical Features
*Exercises with answers, plus end-of-chapter annotated lists of further reading.
*Real examples of troublesome data, demonstrating how to handle typical problems in analyses.
*Topic boxes on specialized issues, such as causes of nonpositive definite correlations.
*Boxed rules to remember.
*Website promoting a learn-by-doing approach, including syntax and data files for six widely used SEM computer tools.
In The Improbability Principle, the renowned statistician David J. Hand argues that extraordinarily rare events are anything but. In fact, they're commonplace. Not only that, we should all expect to experience a miracle roughly once every month.
But Hand is no believer in superstitions, prophecies, or the paranormal. His definition of "miracle" is thoroughly rational. No mystical or supernatural explanation is necessary to understand why someone is lucky enough to win the lottery twice, or is destined to be hit by lightning three times and still survive. All we need, Hand argues, is a firm grounding in a powerful set of laws: the laws of inevitability, of truly large numbers, of selection, of the probability lever, and of near enough.
Together, these constitute Hand's groundbreaking Improbability Principle. And together, they explain why we should not be so surprised to bump into a friend in a foreign country, or to come across the same unfamiliar word four times in one day. Hand wrestles with seemingly less explicable questions as well: what the Bible and Shakespeare have in common, why financial crashes are par for the course, and why lightning does strike the same place (and the same person) twice. Along the way, he teaches us how to use the Improbability Principle in our own lives—including how to cash in at a casino and how to recognize when a medicine is truly effective.
An irresistible adventure into the laws behind "chance" moments and a trusty guide for understanding the world and universe we live in, The Improbability Principle will transform how you think about serendipity and luck, whether it's in the world of business and finance or you're merely sitting in your backyard, tossing a ball into the air and wondering where it will land.
A Course in Modern Geometries is designed for a junior-senior level course for mathematics majors, including those who plan to teach in secondary school. Chapter 1 presents several finite geometries in an axiomatic framework. Chapter 2 continues the synthetic approach as it introduces Euclid's geometry and ideas of non-Euclidean geometry. In Chapter 3, a new introduction to symmetry and hands-on explorations of isometries precedes the extensive analytic treatment of isometries, similarities and affinities. A new concluding section explores isometries of space. Chapter 4 presents plane projective geometry both synthetically and analytically. The extensive use of matrix representations of groups of transformations in Chapters 3-4 reinforces ideas from linear algebra and serves as excellent preparation for a course in abstract algebra. The new Chapter 5 uses a descriptive and exploratory approach to introduce chaos theory and fractal geometry, stressing the self-similarity of fractals and their generation by transformations from Chapter 3. Each chapter includes a list of suggested resources for applications or related topics in areas such as art and history. The second edition also includes pointers to the web location of author-developed guides for dynamic software explorations of the Poincaré model, isometries, projectivities, conics and fractals. Parallel versions of these explorations are available for "Cabri Geometry" and "Geometer's Sketchpad".
Judith N. Cederberg is an associate professor of mathematics at St. Olaf College in Minnesota.
An introduction to probability at the undergraduate level

Chance and randomness are encountered on a daily basis. Authored by a highly qualified professor in the field, Probability: With Applications and R delves into the theories and applications essential to obtaining a thorough understanding of probability.

With real-life examples and thoughtful exercises from fields as diverse as biology, computer science, cryptology, ecology, public health, and sports, the book is accessible for a variety of readers. The book’s emphasis on simulation through the use of the popular R software language clarifies and illustrates key computational and theoretical results.

Probability: With Applications and R helps readers develop problem-solving skills and delivers an appropriate mix of theory and application. The book includes:

Chapters covering first principles, conditional probability, independent trials, random variables, discrete distributions, continuous probability, continuous distributions, conditional distribution, and limits An early introduction to random variables and Monte Carlo simulation and an emphasis on conditional probability, conditioning, and developing probabilistic intuition An R tutorial with example script files Many classic and historical problems of probability as well as nontraditional material, such as Benford’s law, power-law distributions, and Bayesian statistics A topics section with suitable material for projects and explorations, such as random walk on graphs, Markov chains, and Markov chain Monte Carlo Chapter-by-chapter summaries and hundreds of practical exercises

Probability: With Applications and R is an ideal text for a beginning course in probability at the undergraduate level.

Uniquely blends mathematical theory and algorithm design for understanding and modeling real-world problems

Optimization modeling and algorithms are key components to problem-solving across various fields of research, from operations research and mathematics to computer science and engineering. Addressing the importance of the algorithm design process. Deterministic Operations Research focuses on the design of solution methods for both continuous and discrete linear optimization problems. The result is a clear-cut resource for understanding three cornerstones of deterministic operations research: modeling real-world problems as linear optimization problem; designing the necessary algorithms to solve these problems; and using mathematical theory to justify algorithmic development.

Treating real-world examples as mathematical problems, the author begins with an introduction to operations research and optimization modeling that includes applications form sports scheduling an the airline industry. Subsequent chapters discuss algorithm design for continuous linear optimization problems, covering topics such as convexity. Farkas’ Lemma, and the study of polyhedral before culminating in a discussion of the Simplex Method. The book also addresses linear programming duality theory and its use in algorithm design as well as the Dual Simplex Method. Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition, and a primal-dual interior point algorithm. The final chapters present network optimization and integer programming problems, highlighting various specialized topics including label-correcting algorithms for the shortest path problem, preprocessing and probing in integer programming, lifting of valid inequalities, and branch and cut algorithms.

Concepts and approaches are introduced by outlining examples that demonstrate and motivate theoretical concepts. The accessible presentation of advanced ideas makes core aspects easy to understand and encourages readers to understand how to think about the problem, not just what to think. Relevant historical summaries can be found throughout the book, and each chapter is designed as the continuation of the “story” of how to both model and solve optimization problems by using the specific problems-linear and integer programs-as guides. The book’s various examples are accompanied by the appropriate models and calculations, and a related Web site features these models along with MapleTM and MATLAB® content for the discussed calculations.

Thoroughly class-tested to ensure a straightforward, hands-on approach, Deterministic Operations Research is an excellent book for operations research of linear optimization courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It also serves as an insightful reference for individuals working in the fields of mathematics, engineering, computer science, and operations research who use and design algorithms to solve problem in their everyday work.

A half-century ago, advanced calculus was a well-de?ned subject at the core of the undergraduate mathematics curriulum. The classic texts of Taylor [19], Buck [1], Widder [21], and Kaplan [9], for example, show some of the ways it was approached. Over time, certain aspects of the course came to be seen as more signi?cant—those seen as giving a rigorous foundation to calculus—and they - came the basis for a new course, an introduction to real analysis, that eventually supplanted advanced calculus in the core. Advanced calculus did not, in the process, become less important, but its role in the curriculum changed. In fact, a bifurcation occurred. In one direction we got c- culus on n-manifolds, a course beyond the practical reach of many undergraduates; in the other, we got calculus in two and three dimensions but still with the theorems of Stokes and Gauss as the goal. The latter course is intended for everyone who has had a year-long introduction to calculus; it often has a name like Calculus III. In my experience, though, it does not manage to accomplish what the old advancedcalculus course did. Multivariable calculusnaturallysplits intothreeparts:(1)severalfunctionsofonevariable,(2)one function of several variables, and (3) several functions of several variables. The ?rst two are well-developed in Calculus III, but the third is really too large and varied to be treated satisfactorily in the time remaining at the end of a semester. To put it another way: Green’s theorem ?ts comfortably; Stokes’ and Gauss’ do not.
This textbook is an introduction to probability and statistics for non-mathematics majors who do not need the exhaustive detail and mathematical depth provided in more comprehensive treatments of the subject. The presentation covers the mathematical laws of random phenomena, including discrete and continuous random variables, expectation and variance, and common probability distributions such as the binomial, Poisson, and normal distributions. Main statistical concepts considered are point and interval estimates, hypothesis testing, power function, various statistical tests: z, t, chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov.

Key features:

* Presents rigorous discussion, with definitions, theorems, and proofs, but aimed at a non-specialist audience;

*Avoids linear algebra;

* Treats informally the few unavoidable concepts from multivariable calculus, such as double integrals;

* Motivates new concepts throughout using examples and brief conceptual discussions;

* Develops basic ideas with clear definitions, carefully designed notation and techniques of statistical analysis, along with well-chosen examples, exercises and applications.

The book contains enough material for two semesters but, with judicious selection, it can also be used for a one-semester course, either in probability and statistics or in probability alone. .Advanced undergraduate and graduate students in computer science, engineering, and other natural and social sciences with only a basic background in calculus will benefit from this introductory text balancing theory with applications.

Mathematics for Physical Science and Engineering is a complete text in mathematics for physical science that includes the use of symbolic computation to illustrate the mathematical concepts and enable the solution of a broader range of practical problems. This book enables professionals to connect their knowledge of mathematics to either or both of the symbolic languages Maple and Mathematica.

The book begins by introducing the reader to symbolic computation and how it can be applied to solve a broad range of practical problems. Chapters cover topics that include: infinite series; complex numbers and functions; vectors and matrices; vector analysis; tensor analysis; ordinary differential equations; general vector spaces; Fourier series; partial differential equations; complex variable theory; and probability and statistics. Each important concept is clarified to students through the use of a simple example and often an illustration.

This book is an ideal reference for upper level undergraduates in physical chemistry, physics, engineering, and advanced/applied mathematics courses. It will also appeal to graduate physicists, engineers and related specialties seeking to address practical problems in physical science.

Clarifies each important concept to students through the use of a simple example and often an illustrationProvides quick-reference for students through multiple appendices, including an overview of terms in most commonly used applications (Mathematica, Maple)Shows how symbolic computing enables solving a broad range of practical problems
Technological advancements in computing have changed how data is leveraged by businesses to develop, grow, and innovate. In recent years, leading analytical companies have begun to realize the value in their vast holdings of customer data and have found ways to leverage this untapped potential. Now, more firms are following suit and looking to monetize Big Data for big profits. Such changes will have implications for both businesses and consumers in the coming years. In From Big Data to Big Profits, Russell Walker investigates the use of Big Data to stimulate innovations in operational effectiveness and business growth. Walker examines the nature of Big Data and how businesses can use it to create new monetization opportunities. Using case studies of Apple, Netflix, Google, LinkedIn, Zillow, Amazon, and other leaders in the use of Big Data, Walker explores how digital platforms such as mobile apps and social networks are changing the nature of customer interactions and the way Big Data is created and used by companies. Such changes, as Walker points out, will require careful consideration of legal and unspoken business practices as they affect consumer privacy. Companies looking to develop a Big Data strategy will find great value in the SIGMA framework, which he has developed to assess companies for Big Data readiness and provide direction on the steps necessary to get the most from Big Data. Rigorous and meticulous, From Big Data to Big Profits is a valuable resource for students, researchers, and professionals with an interest in Big Data, digital platforms, and analytics
Probability, Random Variables, and Random Processes is a comprehensive textbook on probability theory for engineers that provides a more rigorous mathematical framework than is usually encountered in undergraduate courses. It is intended for first-year graduate students who have some familiarity with probability and random variables, though not necessarily of random processes and systems that operate on random signals. It is also appropriate for advanced undergraduate students who have a strong mathematical background.

The book has the following features:

Several appendices include related material on integration, important inequalities and identities, frequency-domain transforms, and linear algebra. These topics have been included so that the book is relatively self-contained. One appendix contains an extensive summary of 33 random variables and their properties such as moments, characteristic functions, and entropy. Unlike most books on probability, numerous figures have been included to clarify and expand upon important points. Over 600 illustrations and MATLAB plots have been designed to reinforce the material and illustrate the various characterizations and properties of random quantities. Sufficient statistics are covered in detail, as is their connection to parameter estimation techniques. These include classical Bayesian estimation and several optimality criteria: mean-square error, mean-absolute error, maximum likelihood, method of moments, and least squares. The last four chapters provide an introduction to several topics usually studied in subsequent engineering courses: communication systems and information theory; optimal filtering (Wiener and Kalman); adaptive filtering (FIR and IIR); and antenna beamforming, channel equalization, and direction finding. This material is available electronically at the companion website.

Probability, Random Variables, and Random Processes is the only textbook on probability for engineers that includes relevant background material, provides extensive summaries of key results, and extends various statistical techniques to a range of applications in signal processing.

Crunch Big Data to optimize marketing and more!

Overwhelmed by all the Big Data now available to you? Not sure what questions to ask or how to ask them? Using Microsoft Excel and proven decision analytics techniques, you can distill all that data into manageable sets—and use them to optimize a wide variety of business and investment decisions. In Decision Analytics: Microsoft Excel, best selling statistics expert and consultant Conrad Carlberg will show you how—hands-on and step-by-step.

Carlberg guides you through using decision analytics to segment customers (or anything else) into sensible and actionable groups and clusters. Next, you’ll learn practical ways to optimize a wide spectrum of decisions in business and beyond—from pricing to cross-selling, hiring to investments—even facial recognition software uses the techniques discussed in this book!

Through realistic examples, Carlberg helps you understand the techniques and assumptions that underlie decision analytics and use simple Excel charts to intuitively grasp the results. With this foundation in place, you can perform your own analyses in Excel and work with results produced by advanced stats packages such as SAS and SPSS.

This book comes with an extensive collection of downloadable Excel workbooks you can easily adapt to your own unique requirements, plus VBA code to streamline several of its most complex techniques.

Classify data according to existing categories or naturally occurring clusters of predictor variables Cut massive numbers of variables and records down to size, so you can get the answers you really need Utilize cluster analysis to find patterns of similarity for market research and many other applications Learn how multiple discriminant analysis helps you classify cases Use MANOVA to decide whether groups differ on multivariate centroids Use principal components to explore data, find patterns, and identify latent factors

Register your book for access to all sample workbooks, updates, and corrections as they become available at quepublishing.com/title/9780789751683.

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