For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.
And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.
“[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.”
–Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker
Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences.
Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of business–Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives.
From the Trade Paperback edition.
This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
This revised and updated edition adds commentary on hot topics, including the current economic crisis, globalization, the economics of information, the intersection of economics and politics, and the history—and future—of the Federal Reserve.
First published by the University of Chicago Press on September 18, 1944, The Road to Serfdom garnered immediate, widespread attention. The first printing of 2,000 copies was exhausted instantly, and within six months more than 30,000 books were sold. In April 1945, Reader’s Digest published a condensed version of the book, and soon thereafter the Book-of-the-Month Club distributed this edition to more than 600,000 readers. A perennial best seller, the book has sold 400,000 copies in the United States alone and has been translated into more than twenty languages, along the way becoming one of the most important and influential books of the century.
With this new edition, The Road to Serfdom takes its place in the series The Collected Works of F. A. Hayek. The volume includes a foreword by series editor and leading Hayek scholar Bruce Caldwell explaining the book's origins and publishing history and assessing common misinterpretations of Hayek's thought. Caldwell has also standardized and corrected Hayek's references and added helpful new explanatory notes. Supplemented with an appendix of related materials ranging from prepublication reports on the initial manuscript to forewords to earlier editions by John Chamberlain, Milton Friedman, and Hayek himself, this new edition of The Road to Serfdom will be the definitive version of Hayek's enduring masterwork.
New York Times Bestseller
“Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”
—New York Times Book Review
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism."
—New York Review of Books
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
From the Trade Paperback edition.
The U.S. dollar has been the global reserve currency since the end of World War II. If the dollar fails, the entire international monetary system will fail with it. But optimists have always said, in essence, that confidence in the dollar will never truly be shaken, no matter how high our national debt or how dysfunctional our government.
In the last few years, however, the risks have become too big to ignore. While Washington is gridlocked, our biggest rivals—China, Russia, and the oil-producing nations of the Middle East—are doing everything possible to end U.S. monetary hegemony. The potential results: Financial warfare. Deflation. Hyperinflation. Market collapse. Chaos.
James Rickards, the acclaimed author of Currency Wars, shows why money itself is now at risk and what we can all do to protect ourselves. He explains the power of converting unreliable investments into real wealth: gold, land, fine art, and other long-term stores of value.
Perhaps no one is better acquainted with the intersection of economics and politics than Robert B. Reich, and now he reveals how power and influence have created a new American oligarchy, a shrinking middle class, and the greatest income inequality and wealth disparity in eighty years. He makes clear how centrally problematic our veneration of the “free market” is, and how it has masked the power of moneyed interests to tilt the market to their benefit.
Reich exposes the falsehoods that have been bolstered by the corruption of our democracy by huge corporations and the revolving door between Washington and Wall Street: that all workers are paid what they’re “worth,” that a higher minimum wage equals fewer jobs, and that corporations must serve shareholders before employees. He shows that the critical choices ahead are not about the size of government but about who government is for: that we must choose not between a free market and “big” government but between a market organized for broadly based prosperity and one designed to deliver the most gains to the top. Ever the pragmatist, ever the optimist, Reich sees hope for reversing our slide toward inequality and diminished opportunity when we shore up the countervailing power of everyone else.
Passionate yet practical, sweeping yet exactingly argued, Saving Capitalism is a revelatory indictment of our economic status quo and an empowering call to civic action.
From the Hardcover edition.
Complexity surrounds us. We have too much email, juggle multiple remotes, and hack through thickets of regulations from phone contracts to health plans. But complexity isn’t destiny. Sull and Eisenhardt argue there’s a better way. By developing a few simple yet effective rules, people can best even the most complex problems.
In Simple Rules, Sull and Eisenhardt masterfully challenge how we think about complexity and offer a new lens on how to cope. They take us on a surprising tour of what simple rules are, where they come from, and why they work. The authors illustrate the six kinds o f rules that really matter - for helping artists find creativity and the Federal Reserve set interest rates, for keeping birds on track and Zipcar members organized, and for how insomniacs can sleep and mountain climbers stay safe.
Drawing on rigorous research and riveting stories, the authors ingeniously find insights in unexpected places, from the way Tina Fey codified her experience at Saturday Night Live into rules for producing 30 Rock (rule five: never tell a crazy person he’s crazy) to burglars’ rules for robbery (“avoid houses with a car parked outside”) to Japanese engineers mimicking the rules of slime molds to optimize Tokyo’s rail system. The authors offer fresh information and practical tips on fixing old rules and learning new ones.
Whether you’re struggling with information overload, pursuing opportunities with limited resources, or just trying to change your bad habits, Simple Rules provides powerful insight into how and why simplicity tames complexity.
This book shows you how to validate your initial idea, find the right customers, decide what to build, how to monetize your business, and how to spread the word. Packed with more than thirty case studies and insights from over a hundred business experts, Lean Analytics provides you with hard-won, real-world information no entrepreneur can afford to go without.Understand Lean Startup, analytics fundamentals, and the data-driven mindsetLook at six sample business models and how they map to new ventures of all sizesFind the One Metric That Matters to youLearn how to draw a line in the sand, so you’ll know it’s time to move forwardApply Lean Analytics principles to large enterprises and established products
In the late 1980s, Japanese scientists were trying to figure out the economic damage that would be caused if a catastrophic earthquake destroyed Tokyo. The answer was bleak, but not for Japan. Kaoru Oda, an economist who worked for Tokai Bank, speculated that the United States would end up paying the most. Why? Japan owned trillions of dollars’ worth of foreign liquid assets and investments. These assets, which the world depended on, would be sold, forcing countries into the precarious position of having to return large amounts of money they might not have. After the recent earthquake, Michael Lewis reexamined this hypothesis and came to a surprising conclusion. With his characteristic sense of humor and wit, Lewis, once again, explains the inner workings of a financial catastrophe.
“How a Tokyo Earthquake Could Devastate Wall Street” appears in Michael Lewis’s book The Money Culture.
How can we benefit from the promise of government while avoiding the threat it poses to individual freedom? In this classic book, Milton Friedman provides the definitive statement of his immensely influential economic philosophy—one in which competitive capitalism serves as both a device for achieving economic freedom and a necessary condition for political freedom. The result is an accessible text that has sold well over half a million copies in English, has been translated into eighteen languages, and shows every sign of becoming more and more influential as time goes on.
Based on an MBA course Provost has taught at New York University over the past ten years, Data Science for Business provides examples of real-world business problems to illustrate these principles. You’ll not only learn how to improve communication between business stakeholders and data scientists, but also how participate intelligently in your company’s data science projects. You’ll also discover how to think data-analytically, and fully appreciate how data science methods can support business decision-making.Understand how data science fits in your organization—and how you can use it for competitive advantageTreat data as a business asset that requires careful investment if you’re to gain real valueApproach business problems data-analytically, using the data-mining process to gather good data in the most appropriate wayLearn general concepts for actually extracting knowledge from dataApply data science principles when interviewing data science job candidates
Basic Economics, which has now been translated into six languages and has additional material online, remains true to its core principle: that the fundamental facts and principles of economics do not require jargon, graphs, or equations, and can be learned in a relaxed and even enjoyable way.
“The leading indicators” shape our lives intimately, but few of us know where these numbers come from, what they mean, or why they rule the world. GDP, inflation, unemployment, trade, and a host of averages determine whether we feel optimistic or pessimistic about the country’s future and our own. They dictate whether businesses hire and invest, or fire and hunker down, whether governments spend trillions or try to reduce debt, whether individuals marry, buy a car, get a mortgage, or look for a job.
Zachary Karabell tackles the history and the limitations of each of our leading indicators. The solution is not to invent new indicators, but to become less dependent on a few simple figures and tap into the data revolution. We have unparalleled power to find the information we need, but only if we let go of the outdated indicators that lead and mislead us.
New to the fourth edition are the topics of common and special causes, outliers, and risk management tools. Besides the new topics, many current topics have been expanded to reflect changes in auditing practices since 2004 and ISO 19011 guidance, and they have been rewritten to promote the common elements of all types of system and process audits.
The handbook can be used by new auditors to gain an understanding of auditing. Experienced auditors will find it to be a useful reference. Audit managers and quality managers can use the handbook as a guide for leading their auditing programs. The handbook may also be used by trainers and educators as source material for teaching the fundamentals of auditing.
New to This Edition
*Extensively revised to cover important new topics: Pearl's graphing theory and the SCM, causal inference frameworks, conditional process modeling, path models for longitudinal data, item response theory, and more.
*Chapters on best practices in all stages of SEM, measurement invariance in confirmatory factor analysis, and significance testing issues and bootstrapping.
*Expanded coverage of psychometrics.
*Additional computer tools: online files for all detailed examples, previously provided in EQS, LISREL, and Mplus, are now also given in Amos, Stata, and R (lavaan).
*Reorganized to cover the specification, identification, and analysis of observed variable models separately from latent variable models.
*Exercises with answers, plus end-of-chapter annotated lists of further reading.
*Real examples of troublesome data, demonstrating how to handle typical problems in analyses.
*Topic boxes on specialized issues, such as causes of nonpositive definite correlations.
*Boxed rules to remember.
*Website promoting a learn-by-doing approach, including syntax and data files for six widely used SEM computer tools.
So why is it so hard to make sound decisions? In Think Twice, now in paperback, Michael Mauboussin argues that we often fall victim to simplified mental routines that prevent us from coping with the complex realities inherent in important judgment calls. Yet these cognitive errors are preventable.
In this engaging book, Mauboussin shows us how to recognize and avoid common mental missteps. These include misunderstanding cause-and-effect linkages, not considering enough alternative possibilities in making a decision, and relying too much on experts.
Through vivid stories, the author presents memorable rules for avoiding each error and explains how to recognize when you should “think twice”—questioning your reasoning and adopting decision-making strategies that are far more effective, even if they seem counterintuitive. Armed with this awareness, you'll soon begin making sounder judgment calls that benefit (rather than hurt) your organization.
There is so much buzz around big data. We all need to know what it is and how it works - that much is obvious. But is a basic understanding of the theory enough to hold your own in strategy meetings? Probably. But what will set you apart from the rest is actually knowing how to USE big data to get solid, real-world business results - and putting that in place to improve performance. Big Data will give you a clear understanding, blueprint, and step-by-step approach to building your own big data strategy. This is a well-needed practical introduction to actually putting the topic into practice. Illustrated with numerous real-world examples from a cross section of companies and organisations, Big Data will take you through the five steps of the SMART model: Start with Strategy, Measure Metrics and Data, Apply Analytics, Report Results, Transform.Discusses how companies need to clearly define what it is they need to know Outlines how companies can collect relevant data and measure the metrics that will help them answer their most important business questions Addresses how the results of big data analytics can be visualised and communicated to ensure key decisions-makers understand them Includes many high-profile case studies from the author's work with some of the world's best known brands
Stimulus plans: good or bad? Free markets: How free are they? Jobs: Can we afford them? Occupy Wall Street . . . worldwide!
Everybody’s talking about the economy, but how can we, the people, understand what Wall Street or Washington knows—or say they know? Read Economix.
With clear, witty writing and quirky, accessible art, this important and timely graphic novel transforms “the dismal science” of economics into a fun, fact-filled story about human nature and our attempts to make the most of what we’ve got . . . and sometimes what our neighbors have got. Economix explains it all, from the beginning of Western economic thought, to markets free and otherwise, to economic failures, successes, limitations, and future possibilities. It’s the essential, accessible guide to understanding the economy and economic practices. A must-read for every citizen and every voter.
Find teaching guides for Economix and other titles at abramsbooks.com/resources.
PRAISE FOR ECONOMIX
“Goodwin brilliantly contextualizes economic theories with historical narrative, while Burr’s simple but elegant illustration employs classical techniques like caricaturing politicians and symbolizing big businesses (as a gleeful factory) to help the reader visualize difficult concepts.” —Publishers Weekly, starred review
“[Economix] brings a lively visual sensibility to this intensely abstruse subject matter without condescending to the reader or dumbing the ideas down.” —MotherJones.com
“Flat-out awesome!” —Wired.com
“This witty and elegant volume takes on a number of complex issues—in this case, economics, history and finance—and makes them comprehensible for mere mortals.” —Miami Herald
“After reading Economix I felt like I understood many fundamental aspects about the way the world works that I had been too lazy to learn about before . . . Economix is a book I’m going to buy and give to people.” —Boing Boing
“Having never taken economics in college, I find the world of high finance needlessly complicated and confusing. Thankfully Michael Goodwin saw the need for a basic primary on how the economy currently works and how we got here. A text like this would certainly help high school and college students gain their first taste of financial literacy and it comes recommended for the rest of us.” —ComicMix.com
“Just when the world seems to have fallen apart thanks to the economy, Goodwin and Burr’s Economix comes along to give us some understanding of the immense, yet still ‘delicate machine’ that controls our world so that we can be the rulers with our votes and not the uninformed (or disinformed) ruled.” —BigThink.com
“Michael Goodwin hasn’t just written a great graphic novel—he’s written one that should be required for every school, newsroom and library in the United States.” —Minneapolis Star Tribune
“It’s simply phenomenal. You could read ten books on the subject and not glean as much information.”
— David Bach founder of FinishRich Media; author of nine New York Times bestsellers, including Debt Free for Life and The Automatic Millionaire
“Goodwin has done the seemingly impossible—he has made economics comprehensible and funny.”
— Joel Bakan, author of The Corporation: The Pathological Pursuit of Profit and Power
“An amazing lesson in true-world economics! Delightfully presented, powerful, insightful, and important information! What a fun way to fathom a deep and often dark subject!”
— John Perkins, author of Hoodwinked and the New York Times bestseller Confessions of an Economic Hit Man
“Smart, insightful, clear, and as close to the truth as economics can get. The bonus: Who would have guessed that economics could be fun, and—here's the joy—really accessible? Goodwin roots us in history and fills us with common sense understanding. As he puts it early on, economics seems horribly complicated mostly because we're looking at it all at once. Broken down into its component pieces, it's relatively easy to understand. And a good understanding of economics is critical to maneuvering in the world today. If I were compiling a list of the 100 most important books you can read in a lifetime, this would be on it.”
—Stephen Petranek, editor-in-chief, Weider History magazines, former editor-in-chief of Discover magazine
“Through a potent mix of comics and punchy, concise, accessible prose, Goodwin takes us on a provocative, exhaustively researched, and exceedingly engaging trip through our history and present day, creating an alternately hilarious and scary picture of where we are today as an economy— and what it all means. More than that, Goodwin makes the arcane, understandable. If your mind either spins or slumbers at the thought of economics, read Goodwin's Economix and all will become clear.
—Nomi Prins, author of It Takes a Pillage: An Epic Tale of Power, Deceit, and Untold Trillions
“Economix is a lively, cheerfully opinionated romp through the historical and intellectual foundations of our current economy and our current economic problems. Goodwin has a knack for distilling complex ideas and events in ways that invite the reader to follow the big picture without losing track of what actually happened. Any reader wondering how our economy got to where it is today will find this a refreshing overview.”
—Timothy W. Guinnane, Philip Golden Bartlett Professor of Economic History, Yale University
But Hand is no believer in superstitions, prophecies, or the paranormal. His definition of "miracle" is thoroughly rational. No mystical or supernatural explanation is necessary to understand why someone is lucky enough to win the lottery twice, or is destined to be hit by lightning three times and still survive. All we need, Hand argues, is a firm grounding in a powerful set of laws: the laws of inevitability, of truly large numbers, of selection, of the probability lever, and of near enough.
Together, these constitute Hand's groundbreaking Improbability Principle. And together, they explain why we should not be so surprised to bump into a friend in a foreign country, or to come across the same unfamiliar word four times in one day. Hand wrestles with seemingly less explicable questions as well: what the Bible and Shakespeare have in common, why financial crashes are par for the course, and why lightning does strike the same place (and the same person) twice. Along the way, he teaches us how to use the Improbability Principle in our own lives—including how to cash in at a casino and how to recognize when a medicine is truly effective.
An irresistible adventure into the laws behind "chance" moments and a trusty guide for understanding the world and universe we live in, The Improbability Principle will transform how you think about serendipity and luck, whether it's in the world of business and finance or you're merely sitting in your backyard, tossing a ball into the air and wondering where it will land.
Crunch Big Data to optimize marketing and more!
Overwhelmed by all the Big Data now available to you? Not sure what questions to ask or how to ask them? Using Microsoft Excel and proven decision analytics techniques, you can distill all that data into manageable sets—and use them to optimize a wide variety of business and investment decisions. In Decision Analytics: Microsoft Excel, best selling statistics expert and consultant Conrad Carlberg will show you how—hands-on and step-by-step.
Carlberg guides you through using decision analytics to segment customers (or anything else) into sensible and actionable groups and clusters. Next, you’ll learn practical ways to optimize a wide spectrum of decisions in business and beyond—from pricing to cross-selling, hiring to investments—even facial recognition software uses the techniques discussed in this book!
Through realistic examples, Carlberg helps you understand the techniques and assumptions that underlie decision analytics and use simple Excel charts to intuitively grasp the results. With this foundation in place, you can perform your own analyses in Excel and work with results produced by advanced stats packages such as SAS and SPSS.
This book comes with an extensive collection of downloadable Excel workbooks you can easily adapt to your own unique requirements, plus VBA code to streamline several of its most complex techniques.Classify data according to existing categories or naturally occurring clusters of predictor variables Cut massive numbers of variables and records down to size, so you can get the answers you really need Utilize cluster analysis to find patterns of similarity for market research and many other applications Learn how multiple discriminant analysis helps you classify cases Use MANOVA to decide whether groups differ on multivariate centroids Use principal components to explore data, find patterns, and identify latent factors
Register your book for access to all sample workbooks, updates, and corrections as they become available at quepublishing.com/title/9780789751683.
The latest entry in the University of Chicago Press’s series of newly edited editions of Hayek’s works, The Constitution of Liberty is, like Serfdom, just as relevant to our present moment. The book is considered Hayek’s classic statement on the ideals of freedom and liberty, ideals that he believes have guided—and must continue to guide—the growth of Western civilization. Here Hayek defends the principles of a free society, casting a skeptical eye on the growth of the welfare state and examining the challenges to freedom posed by an ever expanding government—as well as its corrosive effect on the creation, preservation, and utilization of knowledge. In opposition to those who call for the state to play a greater role in society, Hayek puts forward a nuanced argument for prudence. Guided by this quality, he elegantly demonstrates that a free market system in a democratic polity—under the rule of law and with strong constitutional protections of individual rights—represents the best chance for the continuing existence of liberty.
Striking a balance between skepticism and hope, Hayek’s profound insights are timelier and more welcome than ever before. This definitive edition of The Constitution of Liberty will give a new generation the opportunity to learn from his enduring wisdom.
New to This Edition
*Updated throughout to incorporate important developments in latent variable modeling.
*Chapter on Bayesian CFA and multilevel measurement models.
*Addresses new topics (with examples): exploratory structural equation modeling, bifactor analysis, measurement invariance evaluation with categorical indicators, and a new method for scaling latent variables.
*Utilizes the latest versions of major latent variable software packages.
These may not sound like typical questions for an economist to ask. But Steven D. Levitt is not a typical economist. He is a much-heralded scholar who studies the riddles of everyday life—from cheating and crime to sports and child-rearing—and whose conclusions turn conventional wisdom on its head.
Freakonomics is a groundbreaking collaboration between Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, an award-winning author and journalist. They usually begin with a mountain of data and a simple question. Some of these questions concern life-and-death issues; others have an admittedly freakish quality. Thus the new field of study contained in this book: Freakonomics.
Through forceful storytelling and wry insight, Levitt and Dubner show that economics is, at root, the study of incentives—how people get what they want, or need, especially when other people want or need the same thing. In Freakonomics, they explore the hidden side of . . . well, everything. The inner workings of a crack gang. The truth about real-estate agents. The myths of campaign finance. The telltale marks of a cheating schoolteacher. The secrets of the Ku Klux Klan.
What unites all these stories is a belief that the modern world, despite a great deal of complexity and downright deceit, is not impenetrable, is not unknowable, and—if the right questions are asked—is even more intriguing than we think. All it takes is a new way of looking.
Freakonomics establishes this unconventional premise: If morality represents how we would like the world to work, then economics represents how it actually does work. It is true that readers of this book will be armed with enough riddles and stories to last a thousand cocktail parties. But Freakonomics can provide more than that. It will literally redefine the way we view the modern world.
Bonus material added to the revised and expanded 2006 editionThe original New York Times Magazine article about Steven D. Levitt by Stephen J. Dubner, which led to the creation of this book.Seven “Freakonomics” columns written for the New York Times Magazine, published between August 2005 and April 2006.Selected entries from the Freakonomics blog, posted between April 2005 and May 2006 at http://www.freakonomics.com/blog/.
Trillions of dollars in assets and fundamental political power are changing hands as free markets wrest control from government of the "commanding heights" -- the dominant businesses and industries of the world economy. Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw demonstrate that words like "privatization" and "deregulation" are inadequate to describe the enormous upheaval that is unfolding before our eyes. Along with the creation of vast new wealth, the map of the global economy is being redrawn. Indeed, the very structure of society is changing. New markets and new opportunities have brought great new risks as well. How has all this come about? Who are the major figures behind it? How does it affect our lives?
The collapse of the Soviet Union, the awesome rise of China, the awakening of India, economic revival in Latin America, the march toward the European Union -- all are a part of this political and economic revolution. Fiscal realities and financial markets are relentlessly propelling deregulation; achieving a new balance between government and marketplace will be the major political challenge in the coming years. Looking back, the authors describe how the old balance was overturned, and by whom. Looking forward, they explore these questions: Will the new balance prevail? Or does the free market contain the seeds of its own destruction? Will there be a backlash against any excesses of the free market? And finally, The Commanding Heights illuminates the five tests by which the success or failure of all these changes can be measured, and defines the key issues as we enter the twenty-first century.
The Commanding Heights captures this revolution in ideas in riveting accounts of the history and the politics of the postwar years and compelling tales of the astute politicians, brilliant thinkers, and tenacious businessmen who brought these changes about. Margaret Thatcher, Donald Reagan, Deng Xiaoping, and Bill Clinton share the stage with the "Minister of Thought" Keith Joseph, the broommaker's son Domingo Cavallo, and Friedrich von Hayek, the Austrian economist who was determined to win the twenty-year "battle of ideas." It is a complex and wide-ranging story, and the authors tell it brilliantly, with a deep understanding of human character, making critically important ideas lucid and accessible. Written with unique access to many of the key players, The Commanding Heights, like no other book, brings us an understanding of the last half of the twentieth century -- and sheds a powerful light on what lies ahead in the twenty-first century.
Lawrence Weinstein and John Adam present an eclectic array of estimation problems that range from devilishly simple to quite sophisticated and from serious real-world concerns to downright silly ones. How long would it take a running faucet to fill the inverted dome of the Capitol? What is the total length of all the pickles consumed in the US in one year? What are the relative merits of internal-combustion and electric cars, of coal and nuclear energy? The problems are marvelously diverse, yet the skills to solve them are the same. The authors show how easy it is to derive useful ballpark estimates by breaking complex problems into simpler, more manageable ones--and how there can be many paths to the right answer. The book is written in a question-and-answer format with lots of hints along the way. It includes a handy appendix summarizing the few formulas and basic science concepts needed, and its small size and French-fold design make it conveniently portable. Illustrated with humorous pen-and-ink sketches, Guesstimation will delight popular-math enthusiasts and is ideal for the classroom.
New in the fourth edition of Latent Variable Models:
*a data CD that features the correlation and covariance matrices used in the exercises;
*new sections on missing data, non-normality, mediation, factorial invariance, and automating the construction of path diagrams; and
*reorganization of chapters 3-7 to enhance the flow of the book and its flexibility for teaching.
Intended for advanced students and researchers in the areas of social, educational, clinical, industrial, consumer, personality, and developmental psychology, sociology, political science, and marketing, some prior familiarity with correlation and regression is helpful.
- Covers all versions of Excel.
- Understand date and time serial numbers.
- Control how Excel interprets and formats dates and times.
- Resolve problems with two-digit years and negative times.
- Work around Excel's leap-year bug.
- Use the undocumented DATEDIF function.
- Generate series of dates and times.
- Convert imported text and numerical values to dates and times.
- Skip weekends and holidays in business and financial calculations.
- Find specific days of the month for holidays and paydays.
- Round times to the nearest hour, half-hour, minute, or any interval.
- Plenty of tips, tricks, and timesavers.
- Fully cross-referenced, linked, and searchable.
1. Getting Started with Dates & Times
2. Date & Time Basics
3. Date & Time Functions
4. Date Tricks
5. Time Tricks
- Covers all versions of Excel.
- Display sums and counts without using formulas.
- Master the basics of COUNT, COUNTA, COUNTBLANK, and other counting functions.
- Create conditional counts with COUNTIF and COUNTIFS.
- Calculate the mode for numeric or text values.
- Count unique values in a range.
- Count occurrences of specific text strings.
- Create frequency distributions and histograms.
- Master the basics of the SUM function.
- Use AutoSum to sum values quickly.
- Calculate running totals.
- Sum only the highest or lowest values in a range.
- Eliminate rounding errors in financial calculations.
- Sum every Nth value in a range.
- Create conditional sums with SUMIF and SUMIFS.
- Plenty of tips, tricks, and timesavers.
- Fully cross-referenced, linked, and searchable.
1. Getting Started with Sums & Counts
2. Counting Basics
3. Counting Tricks
4. Frequency Distributions
5. Summing Basics
6. Summing Tricks
This book is aimed at business analysts with basic programming skills for using R for Business Analytics. Note the scope of the book is neither statistical theory nor graduate level research for statistics, but rather it is for business analytics practitioners. Business analytics (BA) refers to the field of exploration and investigation of data generated by businesses. Business Intelligence (BI) is the seamless dissemination of information through the organization, which primarily involves business metrics both past and current for the use of decision support in businesses. Data Mining (DM) is the process of discovering new patterns from large data using algorithms and statistical methods. To differentiate between the three, BI is mostly current reports, BA is models to predict and strategize and DM matches patterns in big data. The R statistical software is the fastest growing analytics platform in the world, and is established in both academia and corporations for robustness, reliability and accuracy.
The book utilizes Albert Einstein’s famous remarks on making things as simple as possible, but no simpler. This book will blow the last remaining doubts in your mind about using R in your business environment. Even non-technical users will enjoy the easy-to-use examples. The interviews with creators and corporate users of R make the book very readable. The author firmly believes Isaac Asimov was a better writer in spreading science than any textbook or journal author.
How to present charts and tables that viewers will grasp immediately: visual information anyone can use!
In an information-overloaded world, you simply must present information effectively. Using charts and tables, you can present categorical and numerical data far more clearly and efficiently. In this Element, we’ll show you exactly how to select and develop easy-to-understand charts and tables for the types of data you’re most likely to work with.
Master modern web and network data modeling: both theory and applications.In Web and Network Data Science, a top faculty member of Northwestern University’s prestigious analytics program presents the first fully-integrated treatment of both the business and academic elements of web and network modeling for predictive analytics.
Some books in this field focus either entirely on business issues (e.g., Google Analytics and SEO); others are strictly academic (covering topics such as sociology, complexity theory, ecology, applied physics, and economics). This text gives today's managers and students what they really need: integrated coverage of concepts, principles, and theory in the context of real-world applications.
Building on his pioneering Web Analytics course at Northwestern University, Thomas W. Miller covers usability testing, Web site performance, usage analysis, social media platforms, search engine optimization (SEO), and many other topics. He balances this practical coverage with accessible and up-to-date introductions to both social network analysis and network science, demonstrating how these disciplines can be used to solve real business problems.
This insightful and eloquent book will show you how to measure those things in your own business, government agency or other organization that, until now, you may have considered "immeasurable," including customer satisfaction, organizational flexibility, technology risk, and technology ROI.Adds new measurement methods, showing how they can be applied to a variety of areas such as risk management and customer satisfaction Simplifies overall content while still making the more technical applications available to those readers who want to dig deeper Continues to boldly assert that any perception of "immeasurability" is based on certain popular misconceptions about measurement and measurement methods Shows the common reasoning for calling something immeasurable, and sets out to correct those ideas Offers practical methods for measuring a variety of "intangibles" Provides an online database (www.howtomeasureanything.com) of downloadable, practical examples worked out in detailed spreadsheets
Written by recognized expert Douglas Hubbard—creator of Applied Information Economics—How to Measure Anything, Third Edition illustrates how the author has used his approach across various industries and how any problem, no matter how difficult, ill defined, or uncertain can lend itself to measurement using proven methods.
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“Represent[s] the full spectrum of the genre—from authoritative to playful.”—Scientific American
“Not only is it a thing of beauty, it’s also a good read, with thoughtful explanations of each winning graphic.”—Nature
“Information, in its raw form, can overwhelm us. Finding the visual form of data can simplify this deluge into pearls of understanding.” —Kim Rees, Periscopic
The most creative and effective data visualizations from the past year, edited by Brain Pickings creator Maria Popova
The rise of infographics across nearly all print and electronic media—from a graphic illuminating the tweets of the women of Isis to a memorable depiction of the national geography of beer—reveals patterns in our lives and the world in often startling ways. The Best American Infographics 2015 showcases visualizations from the worlds of politics, social issues, health, sports, arts and culture, and more. From an elegant graphic comparison of first sentences in classic novels to a startling illustration of the world’s deadliest animals, “You’ll come away with more than your share of . . . mind-bending moments—and a wide-ranging view of what infographics can do” (Harvard Business Review).
“This is what information design does at its best – it gives pause, makes visible the unsuspected yet significant invisibilia of life, and by astonishing us into mobilization, it catapults us toward one of the greatest feats of human courage: the act of changing one’s mind.”—from the Introduction by Maria Popova
Guest introducer MARIA POPOVA is the one-woman curation machine behind Brain Pickings, a cross-disciplinary blog showcasing content that makes people smarter. She has more than half a million monthly readers and over 480,000 Twitter followers. Popova is an MIT Futures of Entertainment Fellow and has written for the New York Times, Atlantic, Wired UK, GOOD Magazine, The Huffington Post, and the Nieman Journalism Lab.
Series editor GARETH COOK is a Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist, a contributor to the New York Times Magazine, and the editor of Mind Matters, Scientific American’s neuroscience blog. He helped invent the Boston Globe’s Sunday Ideas section and served as its editor from 2007 to 2011. His work has also appeared in NewYorker.com, WIRED, Scientific American, and The Best American Science and Nature Writing.
New Revelations: Featuring 15 explosive new chapters, this expanded edition of Perkins's classic bestseller brings the story of economic hit men (EHMs) up to date and, chillingly, home to the US. Over 40 percent of the book is new, including chapters identifying today's EHMs and a detailed chronology extensively documenting EHM activity since the first edition was published in 2004.
Former economic hit man John Perkins shares new details about the ways he and others cheated countries around the globe out of trillions of dollars. Then he reveals how the deadly EHM cancer he helped create has spread far more widely and deeply than ever in the US and everywhere else—to become the dominant system of business, government, and society today. Finally, he gives an insider view of what we each can do to change it.
Economic hit men are the shock troops of what Perkins calls the corporatocracy, a vast network of corporations, banks, colluding governments, and the rich and powerful people tied to them. If the EHMs can't maintain the corrupt status quo through nonviolent coercion, the jackal assassins swoop in. The heart of this book is a completely new section, over 100 pages long, that exposes the fact that all the EHM and jackal tools—false economics, false promises, threats, bribes, extortion, debt, deception, coups, assassinations, unbridled military power—are used around the world today exponentially more than during the era Perkins exposed over a decade ago.
The material in this new section ranges from the Seychelles, Honduras, Ecuador, and Libya to Turkey, Western Europe, Vietnam, China, and, in perhaps the most unexpected and sinister development, the United States, where the new EHMs—bankers, lobbyists, corporate executives, and others—“con governments and the public into submitting to policies that make the rich richer and the poor poorer.”
But as dark as the story gets, this reformed EHM also provides hope. Perkins offers a detailed list of specific actions each of us can take to transform what he calls a failing Death Economy into a Life Economy that provides sustainable abundance for all.
Deftly weaving together psychology, evolutionary biology, anthropology, physics, and economics, along with the compelling story of hard-won lessons learned in the field, Harford makes a passionate case for the importance of adaptive trial and error in tackling issues such as climate change, poverty, and financial crises—as well as in fostering innovation and creativity in our business and personal lives.
Taking us from corporate boardrooms to the deserts of Iraq, Adapt clearly explains the necessary ingredients for turning failure into success. It is a breakthrough handbook for surviving—and prospering— in our complex and ever-shifting world.
Updated throughout, the second edition features three new chapters—growth modeling with ordered categorical variables, growth mixture modeling, and pooled interrupted time series LGM approaches. Following a new organization, the book now covers the development of the LGM, followed by chapters on multiple-group issues (analyzing growth in multiple populations, accelerated designs, and multi-level longitudinal approaches), and then special topics such as missing data models, LGM power and Monte Carlo estimation, and latent growth interaction models. The model specifications previously included in the appendices are now available on the CD so the reader can more easily adapt the models to their own research.
This practical guide is ideal for a wide range of social and behavioral researchers interested in the measurement of change over time, including social, developmental, organizational, educational, consumer, personality and clinical psychologists, sociologists, and quantitative methodologists, as well as for a text on latent variable growth curve modeling or as a supplement for a course on multivariate statistics. A prerequisite of graduate level statistics is recommended.
The quality inspector is the person perhaps most closely involved with day-to-day activities intended to ensure that products and services meet customer expectations. The quality inspector is required to understand and apply a variety of tools and techniques as codified in the American Society for Quality (ASQ) Certified Quality Inspector (CQI) Body of Knowledge (BoK). The tools and techniques identified in the ASQ CQI BoK include technical math, metrology, inspection and test techniques, and quality assurance. Quality inspectors frequently work with the quality function of organizations in the various measurement and inspection laboratories, as well as on the shop floor supporting and interacting with quality engineers and production/service delivery personnel.
This handbook supports individuals preparing to perform, or those already performing, this type of work. It is intended to serve as a ready reference for quality inspectors and quality inspectors in training, as well as a comprehensive reference for those individuals preparing to take the ASQ CQI examination. Examples and problems used throughout the handbook are thoroughly explained, are algebra-based, and are drawn from real-world situations encountered in the quality profession.
To assist readers in using this book as a ready reference or as a study aid, the book has been organized so as to conform explicitly to the ASQ CQI BoK. Each chapter title, all major topical divisions within the chapters, and every main point has been titled and then numbered exactly as they appear in the CQI BoK.
As the data deluge continues in today’s world, the need to master data mining, predictive analytics, and business analytics has never been greater. These techniques and tools provide unprecedented insights into data, enabling better decision making and forecasting, and ultimately the solution of increasingly complex problems.
Learn from the Creators of the RapidMiner Software
Written by leaders in the data mining community, including the developers of the RapidMiner software, RapidMiner: Data Mining Use Cases and Business Analytics Applications provides an in-depth introduction to the application of data mining and business analytics techniques and tools in scientific research, medicine, industry, commerce, and diverse other sectors. It presents the most powerful and flexible open source software solutions: RapidMiner and RapidAnalytics. The software and their extensions can be freely downloaded at www.RapidMiner.com.
Understand Each Stage of the Data Mining Process
The book and software tools cover all relevant steps of the data mining process, from data loading, transformation, integration, aggregation, and visualization to automated feature selection, automated parameter and process optimization, and integration with other tools, such as R packages or your IT infrastructure via web services. The book and software also extensively discuss the analysis of unstructured data, including text and image mining.
Easily Implement Analytics Approaches Using RapidMiner and RapidAnalytics
Each chapter describes an application, how to approach it with data mining methods, and how to implement it with RapidMiner and RapidAnalytics. These application-oriented chapters give you not only the necessary analytics to solve problems and tasks, but also reproducible, step-by-step descriptions of using RapidMiner and RapidAnalytics. The case studies serve as blueprints for your own data mining applications, enabling you to effectively solve similar problems.
Data Science in R: A Case Studies Approach to Computational Reasoning and Problem Solving illustrates the details involved in solving real computational problems encountered in data analysis. It reveals the dynamic and iterative process by which data analysts approach a problem and reason about different ways of implementing solutions.
The book’s collection of projects, comprehensive sample solutions, and follow-up exercises encompass practical topics pertaining to data processing, including:
Non-standard, complex data formats, such as robot logs and email messages Text processing and regular expressions Newer technologies, such as Web scraping, Web services, Keyhole Markup Language (KML), and Google Earth Statistical methods, such as classification trees, k-nearest neighbors, and naïve Bayes Visualization and exploratory data analysis Relational databases and Structured Query Language (SQL) Simulation Algorithm implementation Large data and efficiency
Suitable for self-study or as supplementary reading in a statistical computing course, the book enables instructors to incorporate interesting problems into their courses so that students gain valuable experience and data science skills. Students learn how to acquire and work with unstructured or semistructured data as well as how to narrow down and carefully frame the questions of interest about the data.
Blending computational details with statistical and data analysis concepts, this book provides readers with an understanding of how professional data scientists think about daily computational tasks. It will improve readers’ computational reasoning of real-world data analyses.
Data Mining Mobile Devices defines the collection of machine-sensed environmental data pertaining to human social behavior. It explains how the integration of data mining and machine learning can enable the modeling of conversation context, proximity sensing, and geospatial location throughout large communities of mobile users. Examines the construction and leveraging of mobile sites Describes how to use mobile apps to gather key data about consumers’ behavior and preferences Discusses mobile mobs, which can be differentiated as distinct marketplaces—including Apple®, Google®, Facebook®, Amazon®, and Twitter® Provides detailed coverage of mobile analytics via clustering, text, and classification AI software and techniques
Mobile devices serve as detailed diaries of a person, continuously and intimately broadcasting where, how, when, and what products, services, and content your consumers desire. The future is mobile—data mining starts and stops in consumers' pockets.
Describing how to analyze Wi-Fi and GPS data from websites and apps, the book explains how to model mined data through the use of artificial intelligence software. It also discusses the monetization of mobile devices’ desires and preferences that can lead to the triangulated marketing of content, products, or services to billions of consumers—in a relevant, anonymous, and personal manner.
The sixth edition is no exception. It provides an accessible, comprehensive introduction to the theory and practice of time series analysis. The treatment covers a wide range of topics, including ARIMA probability models, forecasting methods, spectral analysis, linear systems, state-space models, and the Kalman filter. It also addresses nonlinear, multivariate, and long-memory models. The author has carefully updated each chapter, added new discussions, incorporated new datasets, and made those datasets available for download from www.crcpress.com. A free online appendix on time series analysis using R can be accessed at http://people.bath.ac.uk/mascc/TSA.usingR.doc.
Highlights of the Sixth Edition:A new section on handling real data New discussion on prediction intervals A completely revised and restructured chapter on more advanced topics, with new material on the aggregation of time series, analyzing time series in finance, and discrete-valued time series A new chapter of examples and practical advice Thorough updates and revisions throughout the text that reflect recent developments and dramatic changes in computing practices over the last few years
The analysis of time series can be a difficult topic, but as this book has demonstrated for two-and-a-half decades, it does not have to be daunting. The accessibility, polished presentation, and broad coverage of The Analysis of Time Series make it simply the best introduction to the subject available.
New York Times Bestseller
A former Wall Street quant sounds an alarm on the mathematical models that pervade modern life — and threaten to rip apart our social fabric
We live in the age of the algorithm. Increasingly, the decisions that affect our lives—where we go to school, whether we get a car loan, how much we pay for health insurance—are being made not by humans, but by mathematical models. In theory, this should lead to greater fairness: Everyone is judged according to the same rules, and bias is eliminated.
But as Cathy O’Neil reveals in this urgent and necessary book, the opposite is true. The models being used today are opaque, unregulated, and uncontestable, even when they’re wrong. Most troubling, they reinforce discrimination: If a poor student can’t get a loan because a lending model deems him too risky (by virtue of his zip code), he’s then cut off from the kind of education that could pull him out of poverty, and a vicious spiral ensues. Models are propping up the lucky and punishing the downtrodden, creating a “toxic cocktail for democracy.” Welcome to the dark side of Big Data.
Tracing the arc of a person’s life, O’Neil exposes the black box models that shape our future, both as individuals and as a society. These “weapons of math destruction” score teachers and students, sort résumés, grant (or deny) loans, evaluate workers, target voters, set parole, and monitor our health.
O’Neil calls on modelers to take more responsibility for their algorithms and on policy makers to regulate their use. But in the end, it’s up to us to become more savvy about the models that govern our lives. This important book empowers us to ask the tough questions, uncover the truth, and demand change.
— Longlist for National Book Award (Non-Fiction)
— Goodreads, semi-finalist for the 2016 Goodreads Choice Awards (Science and Technology)
— Kirkus, Best Books of 2016
— New York Times, 100 Notable Books of 2016 (Non-Fiction)
— The Guardian, Best Books of 2016
— WBUR's "On Point," Best Books of 2016: Staff Picks
— Boston Globe, Best Books of 2016, Non-Fiction