During periods of financial turmoil, increases in risk lead to higher default, foreclosure, and fire sales. This paper introduces a costly liquidation process for foreclosed collateral and endogenous recovery rates in a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the financial accelerator. Consistent with empirical evidence, we find that recovery rates are pro-cyclical when collateral is costly to liquidate. Through links between recovery rates, risk premia, and default risk, the model generates an additional liquidity spiral, a feedback loop for the financial accelerator. We illustrate how collateral liquidation and monetary policy alter the impacts of a financial shock. We also show that a government subsidy on collateral liquidity and the endogenous accumulation of liquidity inventory help dampen the liquidity spiral by shoring up recovery rates.
Using the theory of optimal local currency pricing, this paper constructs a structural equation to estimate the rate at which foreign producer prices pass through the local currency prices of imported goods in the U.S. This can be viewed as measuring exchange rate pass-through, in line with price stickiness in the New Keynesian Phillips curve literature. We estimate the structural equation using the generalized methods of moments for consistent estimates of exchange rate pass-through. We find that a model with a mix of local currency pricing and producer currency pricing fits the data best. The estimate of price stickiness in import prices is comparable to existing estimates of domestic price stickiness.
This paper explores the behavior of money demand by explicitly accounting for the money supply endogeneity arising from endogenous monetary policy and financial innovations. Our theoretical analysis indicates that money supply factors matter in the money demand function when the money supply partially responds to money demand. Our empirical results with U.S. data provide strong evidence for the relevance of the policy stance to the demand for MI under a regime in which monetary policy is substantially endogenous. Specifically, we find that tighter monetary policy has substantial positive impacts on money demand under the recent Federal funds rate targeting.
This paper examines the interaction between capital flows and international reserve holdings in the context of increasing financial integration. For emerging markets the sensitivity of reserves to net capital flows was negative in the 1980s, but became positive after the Asian crisis when these countries used net capital flows to build up reserves. For advanced countries, net capital flows had a negative effect on reserves, especially in recent years. Using measures of financial globalization, we also provide evidence that the sensitivity of reserves to net capital flows increased with globalization for emerging markets while it decreased for advanced countries.
This paper examines the implications of inflation persistence for the inverted Fisher hypothesis that nominal interest rates do not adjust to inflation because of a high degree of substitutability between money and bonds. It is emphasized that the substitutability between nominal assets and capital renders the hypothesis inconsistent with the data when inflation persistence is high. Using a switching regression model, the analysis allows the reflection of inflation in interest rates to vary according to the degree of inflation persistence or forecastability. The hypothesis is supported by U.S. data only when inflation forecastability is below a certain threshold.
This paper empirically explores how fiscal policy (represented by increases in government spending) has asymmetric effects on economic activity at different levels of real interest rates. It suggests that the effect of fiscal policy depends on the level of real rates, since the Ricardian effect is smaller at lower financing costs of fiscal policy. Using threshold regression models on U.S. data, the paper provides new evidence that expansionary government spending is more conducive to short-run growth when real rates are low. It also finds asymmetric effects on interest rates and inflation, and threshold effects associated with substitution between financing methods.
Banks in developing economies often face a mismatch in the currency denomination of their liabilities (foreign currency denominated debt) and assets (domestic currency loans to domestic borrowers). We study the effect of this mismatch on business cycles and monetary policy in a sticky-price, dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We find from the model analysis that a fixed exchange rate rule that stabilizes the balance sheets of banks offers greater stability than an interest rate rule that targets inflation in the sticky-price sector of the economy.
The paper explores the linkages between the global and domestic monetary gaps, and estimates the effects of monetary gaps on output growth, inflation, and net saving rates using panel data for 20 Asian countries for 1980-2008. We find a significant pass-through of the global monetary gap to domestic monetary gaps, which in turn affect output growth and inflation, in individual emerging market and developing countries in Asia. Notably, we provide evidence that the global monetary condition is partly responsible for the current account surplus in Asia. We also draw implications for monetary policy coordination for global rebalancing.
This paper uncovers Taylor rules from estimated monetary policy reactions using a structural VAR on U.S. data from 1959 to 2009. These Taylor rules reveal the dynamic nature of policy responses to different structural shocks. We find that U.S. monetary policy has been far more responsive over time to demand shocks than to supply shocks, and more aggressive toward inflation than output growth. Our estimated dynamic policy coefficients characterize the style of policy as a "bang-bang" control for the pre-1979 period and as a gradual control for the post-1979 period.
In a liquid financial market, investors are able to sell large blocks of assets without substantially changing the price. We document a steep drop in the liquidity of the Japanese stock market in the post-bubble period and a steep rise in liquidity risk. We find that, during Japan's deflationary period, firms with more liquid balance sheets were less exposed to stock market liquidity risk, while slowly growing firms were highly exposed to liquidity shocks. Also, aggregate liquidity had macroeconomic effects on aggregate demand through its effect on money demand.
Many studies examine why firms are financed by their suppliers, but few empirical studies look at the macroeconomic implications of such financial arrangements. Using disaggregated panel data, we examine how firms extend and use trade credit. We find that, controlling for the transactions or asset management motive, both accounts payable and receivable increase with tighter policy, implying that trade credit helps firms absorb the effect of a credit contraction. A comparison of S&P 500 firms with smaller firms, however, provides no evidence that when policy is tightened, large firms play the role of credit suppliers more actively than small firms.
This paper examines empirically U.S. broad money demand emphasizing the role of financial market risk. We find that money demand rises with the liquidity risk of stock markets or the credit risk of corporate bond markets. After controlling for the effect of financial market risk, money demand becomes relatively stable over the last 35 years. At the sectoral level, household money holdings continue to be stable in a traditional model controlling for a decline in transactions costs for investing in mutual funds in the early 1990s. In contrast, business money holdings have been consistently (positively) associated with credit risk.
Based on an analysis of high-frequency panel data for U.S. firms, this paper finds that inventory investment has been liquidity-constrained in most periods during 1975-97, but less so, or not at all, during recessions. This result can be justified on the grounds that inventory fluctuations are largely attributable to unexpected sales shocks, and that firms increase liquid assets before recessions. Moreover, this results holds irrespective of whether the firm has a bond rating, contrary to the finding of Kashyap, Lamont, and Stein (1994) that inventory investment is liquidity-constrained during recessions only for firms without bond ratings.
In contrast to conventional money demand literature, this paper proposes that monetary policy affects corporate liquidity demand directly through a separate channel-what we call "the loan commitment channel." Upon persistent monetary policy shocks, firms make substitutions between sources of funds for intertemporal liquidity management, taking advantage of loan commitments and sluggish movements in loan rates. To test this proposition, we estimate corporate liquidity demand, controlling for firm characteristics, using U.S. quarterly panel data. The results indicate that when monetary policy is tightened, S&P 500 firms initially increase their liquid assets before reducing them, whereas non-S&P firms reduce them more quickly.