Contributed by leading researchers in the field, each self-contained chapter starts with an introduction of the topic and progresses to recent research results. Presenting specific examples of epidemic data of bovine tuberculosis, gastroenteric disease, and the U.K. foot-and-mouth outbreak, the first chapter uses stochastic models, such as point process models, to provide the probabilistic backbone that facilitates statistical inference from data. The next chapter discusses the critical issue of modeling random growth objects in diverse biological systems, such as bacteria colonies, tumors, and plant populations. The subsequent chapter examines data transformation tools using examples from ecology and air quality data, followed by a chapter on space-time covariance functions. The contributors then describe stochastic and statistical models that are used to generate simulated rainfall sequences for hydrological use, such as flood risk assessment. The final chapter explores Gaussian Markov random field specifications and Bayesian computational inference via Gibbs sampling and Markov chain Monte Carlo, illustrating the methods with a variety of data examples, such as temperature surfaces, dioxin concentrations, ozone concentrations, and a well-established deterministic dynamical weather model.
A comprehensive appendix covers the necessary prerequisites in probability theory, matrix algebra, mathematical calculus, and numerical analysis.
New York Times Bestseller
“Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”
—New York Times Book Review
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism."
—New York Review of Books
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.com.
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.
In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.
Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.
With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
From the Trade Paperback edition.
These may not sound like typical questions for an econo-mist to ask. But Steven D. Levitt is not a typical economist. He is a much-heralded scholar who studies the riddles of everyday life—from cheating and crime to sports and child-rearing—and whose conclusions turn conventional wisdom on its head.
Freakonomics is a groundbreaking collaboration between Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, an award-winning author and journalist. They usually begin with a mountain of data and a simple question. Some of these questions concern life-and-death issues; others have an admittedly freakish quality. Thus the new field of study contained in this book: freakonomics.
Through forceful storytelling and wry insight, Levitt and Dubner show that economics is, at root, the study of incentives—how people get what they want, or need, especially when other people want or need the same thing. In Freakonomics, they explore the hidden side of . . . well, everything. The inner workings of a crack gang. The truth about real-estate agents. The myths of campaign finance. The telltale marks of a cheating schoolteacher. The secrets of the Klu Klux Klan.
What unites all these stories is a belief that the modern world, despite a great deal of complexity and downright deceit, is not impenetrable, is not unknowable, and—if the right questions are asked—is even more intriguing than we think. All it takes is a new way of looking.
Freakonomics establishes this unconventional premise: If morality represents how we would like the world to work, then economics represents how it actually does work. It is true that readers of this book will be armed with enough riddles and stories to last a thousand cocktail parties. But Freakonomics can provide more than that. It will literally redefine the way we view the modern world.
Bonus material added to the revised and expanded 2006 editionThe original New York Times Magazine article about Steven D. Levitt by Stephen J. Dubner, which led to the creation of this book.Seven “Freakonomics” columns written for the New York Times Magazine, published between August 2005 and April 2006.Selected entries from the Freakonomics blog, posted between April 2005 and May 2006 at http://www.freakonomics.com/blog/.
This P.S. edition features an extra 16 pages of insights into the book, including author interviews, recommended reading, and more.
For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.
And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.
Sixty-six million years ago, an object the size of a city descended from space to crash into Earth, creating a devastating cataclysm that killed off the dinosaurs, along with three-quarters of the other species on the planet. What was its origin? In Dark Matter and the Dinosaurs, Lisa Randall proposes it was a comet that was dislodged from its orbit as the Solar System passed through a disk of dark matter embedded in the Milky Way. In a sense, it might have been dark matter that killed the dinosaurs.
Working through the background and consequences of this proposal, Randall shares with us the latest findings—established and speculative—regarding the nature and role of dark matter and the origin of the Universe, our galaxy, our Solar System, and life, along with the process by which scientists explore new concepts. In Dark Matter and the Dinosaurs, Randall tells a breathtaking story that weaves together the cosmos’ history and our own, illuminating the deep relationships that are critical to our world and the astonishing beauty inherent in the most familiar things.
The Essentials For Dummies Series
Dummies is proud to present our new series, The Essentials For Dummies. Now students who are prepping for exams, preparing to study new material, or who just need a refresher can have a concise, easy-to-understand review guide that covers an entire course by concentrating solely on the most important concepts. From algebra and chemistry to grammar and Spanish, our expert authors focus on the skills students most need to succeed in a subject.
Twenty years ago, when John McPhee began his journeys back and forth across the United States, he planned to describe a cross section of North America at about the fortieth parallel and, in the process, come to an understanding not only of the science but of the style of the geologists he traveled with. The structure of the book never changed, but its breadth caused him to complete it in stages, under the overall title Annals of the Former World.
Like the terrain it covers, Annals of the Former World tells a multilayered tale, and the reader may choose one of many paths through it. As clearly and succinctly written as it is profoundly informed, this is our finest popular survey of geology and a masterpiece of modern nonfiction.
Annals of the Former World is the winner of the 1999 Pulitzer Prize for Nonfiction.
Interweaving physics, astronomy, chemistry, geology, and biology, this sweeping account tells Earth’s complete story, from the synthesis of chemical elements in stars, to the formation of the Solar System, to the evolution of a habitable climate on Earth, to the origin of life and humankind. The book also addresses the search for other habitable worlds in the Milky Way and contemplates whether Earth will remain habitable as our influence on global climate grows. It concludes by considering the ways in which humankind can sustain Earth’s habitability and perhaps even participate in further planetary evolution.
Like no other book, How to Build a Habitable Planet provides an understanding of Earth in its broadest context, as well as a greater appreciation of its possibly rare ability to sustain life over geologic time.
Leading schools that have ordered, recommended for reading, or adopted this book for course use:Arizona State University Brooklyn College CUNY Columbia University Cornell University ETH Zurich Georgia Institute of Technology Harvard University Johns Hopkins University Luther College Northwestern University Ohio State University Oxford Brookes University Pan American University Rutgers University State University of New York at Binghamton Texas A&M University Trinity College Dublin University of Bristol University of California-Los Angeles University of Cambridge University Of Chicago University of Colorado at Boulder University of Glasgow University of Leicester University of Maine, Farmington University of Michigan University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill University of North Georgia University of Nottingham University of Oregon University of Oxford University of Portsmouth University of Southampton University of Ulster University of Victoria University of Wyoming Western Kentucky University Yale University
• Investigates the history of how modern religion and the Age of Science were inspired by the sacred science of the ancients
• Examines how quantum theory explains that the cosmos arises from consciousness
• Reveals the unanimity between Schwaller de Lubicz’s “sacred science” and the science of a cosmos governed by quantum mechanics
Since the dawn of the Age of Science humankind has been engaged in a methodical quest to understand the cosmos. With the development of quantum mechanics, the notion that everything is solid matter is being replaced with the idea that information or “thought” may be the true source of physical reality.
Such scientific inquiry has led to a growing interest in the brain’s unique and mysterious ability to create perception, possibly through quantum interactions. Consciousness is now being considered as much a fundamental part of reality as the three dimensions we are so familiar with. Although this direction in scientific thought is seen as a new approach, the secret wisdom of the ancients presented just such a view thousands of years ago.
Building on René A. Schwaller de Lubicz’s systematic study of Luxor’s Temple of Amun-Mut-Khonsu during the 1940s and ’50s, Edward Malkowski shows that the ancient Egyptians' worldview was not based on superstition or the invention of myth but was the result of direct observation using critical faculties attuned to the quantum manifestation of the universe. This understanding of reality as a product of human consciousness provided the inspiration for the sacred science of the ancients--precisely the philosophy modern science is embracing today. In the philosophical tradition of Schwaller de Lubicz, The Spiritual Technology of Ancient Egypt investigates the technical and religious legacy of ancient Egypt to reveal its congruence with today’s “New Science.”
"A sweeping rip-roaring yarn of immense scope, from the birth of the elements in the stars to meditations on the future habitability of our world." -Science
"A fascinating story." -Bill McKibben
Hard Road West brings their perspective vividly to life, weaving together the epic overland journey of the covered wagon trains and the compelling story of the landscape they encountered. Taking readers along the 2,000-mile California Trail, Keith Meldahl uses the diaries and letters of the settlers themselves—as well as the countless hours he has spent following the trail—to reveal how the geology and geography of the West directly affected our nation’s westward expansion. He guides us through a corrugated landscape of sawtooth mountains, following the meager streams that served as lifelines through an arid land, all the way to California itself, where colliding tectonic plates created breathtaking scenery and planted the gold that lured travelers west in the first place.
“Alternates seamlessly between vivid accounts of the 19th-century journey and lucid explanations of the geological events that shaped the landscape traveled. . . . The reader comes away with both an appreciation for the arduous cross-continental wagon journey and an understanding of the events that created such a vast and difficult landscape.”—Library Journal “[Meldahl] draws on his professional knowledge to explain the geology of the West, showing how centuries of geological activity had a direct effect on the routes taken by the travelers. . . . Meldahl provides a novel account of the largest overland migration since the Crusades.”—Science News
The assumption that metrics comparing us to an average—like GPAs, personality test results, and performance review ratings—reveal something meaningful about our potential is so ingrained in our consciousness that we don’t even question it. That assumption, says Harvard’s Todd Rose, is spectacularly—and scientifically—wrong.
In The End of Average, Rose, a rising star in the new field of the science of the individual shows that no one is average. Not you. Not your kids. Not your employees. This isn’t hollow sloganeering—it’s a mathematical fact with enormous practical consequences. But while we know people learn and develop in distinctive ways, these unique patterns of behaviors are lost in our schools and businesses which have been designed around the mythical “average person.” This average-size-fits-all model ignores our differences and fails at recognizing talent. It’s time to change it.
Weaving science, history, and his personal experiences as a high school dropout, Rose offers a powerful alternative to understanding individuals through averages: the three principles of individuality. The jaggedness principle (talent is always jagged), the context principle (traits are a myth), and the pathways principle (we all walk the road less traveled) help us understand our true uniqueness—and that of others—and how to take full advantage of individuality to gain an edge in life.
Read this powerful manifesto in the ranks of Drive, Quiet, and Mindset—and you won’t see averages or talent in the same way again.
The fun and easy way to get down to business with statistics
Stymied by statistics? No fear? this friendly guide offers clear, practical explanations of statistical ideas, techniques, formulas, and calculations, with lots of examples that show you how these concepts apply to your everyday life.
Statistics For Dummies shows you how to interpret and critique graphs and charts, determine the odds with probability, guesstimate with confidence using confidence intervals, set up and carry out a hypothesis test, compute statistical formulas, and more.Tracks to a typical first semester statistics course Updated examples resonate with today's students Explanations mirror teaching methods and classroom protocol
Packed with practical advice and real-world problems, Statistics For Dummies gives you everything you need to analyze and interpret data for improved classroom or on-the-job performance.
Beginning with Mt. Vesuvius, whose eruption in Roman times helped spark the science of geology, and ending in a lab in the West of England where mathematical models and lab experiments replace direct observation, Richard Fortey tells us what the present says about ancient geologic processes. He shows how plate tectonics came to rule the geophysical landscape and how the evidence is written in the hills and in the stones. And in the process, he takes us on a wonderful journey around the globe to visit some of the most fascinating and intriguing spots on the planet.
From the Trade Paperback edition.
• Presents new scientific evidence revealing the cause of the end of the last ice age and the cycles of geological events and species extinctions that followed
• Connects physical data to the dramatic earth changes recounted in oral traditions around the world
• Describes the impending danger from a continuing cycle of catastrophes and extinctions
There are a number of puzzling mysteries in the history of Earth that have yet to be satisfactorily explained by mainstream science: the extinction of the dinosaurs, the vanishing of ancient Indian tribes, the formation of the mysterious Carolina Bays, the disappearance of the mammoths, the sudden ending of the last Ice Age, and the cause of huge underwater landslides that sent massive tsunamis racing across the oceans millennia ago. Eyewitness accounts of these events are chronicled in rich oral traditions handed down through generations of native peoples. The authors’ recent scientific discoveries link all these events to a single cause.
In The Cycle of Cosmic Catastrophes Richard Firestone, Allen West, and Simon Warwick-Smith present new scientific evidence about a series of prehistoric cosmic events that explains why the last Ice Age ended so abruptly. Their findings validate the ubiquitous legends and myths of floods, fires, and weather extremes passed down by our ancestors and show how these legendary events relate to each other. Their findings also support the idea that we are entering a thousand-year cycle of increasing danger and possibly a new cycle of extinctions.
This expansive text pulls together the numerous fields of study encompassed by biogeochemistry to analyze the increasing demands of the growing human population on limited resources and the resulting changes in the planet's chemical makeup.
The book helps students extrapolate small-scale examples to the global level, and also discusses the instrumentation being used by NASA and its role in studies of global change. With extensive cross-referencing of chapters, figures and tables, and an interdisciplinary coverage of the topic at hand, this updated edition provides an excellent framework for courses examining global change and environmental chemistry, and is also a useful self-study guide.Winner of a 2014 Texty Award from the Text and Academic Authors AssociationCalculates and compares the effects of industrial emissions, land clearing, agriculture, and rising population on Earth's chemistrySynthesizes the global cycles of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorous, and sulfur, and suggests the best current budgets for atmospheric gases such as ammonia, nitrous oxide, dimethyl sulfide, and carbonyl sulfideIncludes an extensive review and up-to-date synthesis of the current literature on the Earth's biogeochemistry
· Does Let, Made, Formed, and Create all mean the same thing?
· Does Replenish in Genesis 1:27 mean “fill”?
· Does Genesis 1:2 really describe an unformed and unfilled earth?
· Were angels really created in the Six-Day Narrative?
· Does the Bible really say that the material universe was created in the Six-Day Narrative?
· Was Adam immortal before his fall?
· Is there a workable model in Biblical Creation for Modern Geology?
· Did the Geologic Column form in the Noahic Flood?
· Is the YECSM from within or without Mainline Christianity?
· Does our Creation Doctrine affect other doctrines?
· Is Creation a part of God’s qualitative attributes, or is it just limited to the Six-Day Narrative?
· Is it logical or illogical to propagate an Appearance of Age Theory when defending a Young Earth?
· Did the Bible writers teach an Old or Young Earth?
· When was the Creation made subject to vanity? Pre- or Post- Fall?
· Could the early Church have grasped modern-day interpretations of Creation?
· Are the leaders of the YECSM qualified to represent Christianity to the world’s intellectual communities?
A Must for Every Person in the Ministry!
That tantalizing swirl of dye confirmed speculations that were to tempt more than 650 cavers over half a century with the thrill of being the first to make human passage of the cave connection. Roger Brucker and Richard Watson tell not only of their own twenty-year effort to complete the link but the stories of many others who worked their way through mud-choked crawlways less than a foot high only to find impenetrable blockages.
Floyd Collins died a grisly death in nearby Sand Cave in 1925, after being trapped there for 15 days. The wide press coverage of the rescue efforts stirred the imagination of the public and his body was on macabre display in a glass-topped coffin in Crystal Cave into the 1940s. Agents of a rival cave owner once even stole his corpse, which was recovered and still is in a coffin in the cave. Modern cavers still have a word with Floyd as they start their downward treks.
Brucker and Watson joined the parade of cavers who propelled themselves by wiggling kneecaps, elbows, and toes through quarter-mile long crawlways, clinging by fingertips and boot toes across mud-slick walls, over bottomless pits, into gurgling streams beneath stone ceilings that descend to water level, down crumbling crevices and up mountainous rockfalls, into wondrous domed halls, and straight ahead into a blackness intensified rather than dispelled by the carbide lamps on their helmets.
Over two decades they explored the passages with others who sought the final connection as vigorously as themselves. Pat Crowther, a young mother of two, joined them and because of her thinness became the member of the crew to go first into places no human had ever gone before. In that role, in July 1972, she wiggled her way through the Tight Spot and found the route that would link the Flint Ridge and Mammoth Cave systems into one cave extending 144.4 miles through the Kentucky limestone.
In a new afterword to this edition the authors summarize the subsequent explorations that have more than doubled the established length of the cave system. Based upon geological evidence, the authors predict that new discoveries will add another 200 miles to the length of the world’ s longest cave, making it over 500 miles long.
Two of the authors co-wrote The Elements of Statistical Learning (Hastie, Tibshirani and Friedman, 2nd edition 2009), a popular reference book for statistics and machine learning researchers. An Introduction to Statistical Learning covers many of the same topics, but at a level accessible to a much broader audience. This book is targeted at statisticians and non-statisticians alike who wish to use cutting-edge statistical learning techniques to analyze their data. The text assumes only a previous course in linear regression and no knowledge of matrix algebra.
By showing us the true nature of chance and revealing the psychological illusions that cause us to misjudge the world around us, Mlodinow gives us the tools we need to make more informed decisions. From the classroom to the courtroom and from financial markets to supermarkets, Mlodinow's intriguing and illuminating look at how randomness, chance, and probability affect our daily lives will intrigue, awe, and inspire.
From the Trade Paperback edition.
Offering a quantitative approach to the study of groundwater quality and the interaction of water, minerals, gases, pollutants and microbes, this book shows how physical and chemical theory can be applied to explain observed water qualities and variations over space and time. Integral to the presentation, geochemical modelling using PHREEQC code is demonstrated, with step-by-step instructions for calculating and simulating field and laboratory data. Numerous figures and tables illustrate the theory, while worked examples including calculations and theoretical explanations assist the reader in gaining a deeper understanding of the concepts involved.
A crucial read for students of hydrogeology, geochemistry and civil engineering, professionals in the water sciences will also find inspiration in the practical examples and modeling templates.
The book is divided into three parts and begins with the basics: models, probability, Bayes’ rule, and the R programming language. The discussion then moves to the fundamentals applied to inferring a binomial probability, before concluding with chapters on the generalized linear model. Topics include metric-predicted variable on one or two groups; metric-predicted variable with one metric predictor; metric-predicted variable with multiple metric predictors; metric-predicted variable with one nominal predictor; and metric-predicted variable with multiple nominal predictors. The exercises found in the text have explicit purposes and guidelines for accomplishment.
This book is intended for first-year graduate students or advanced undergraduates in statistics, data analysis, psychology, cognitive science, social sciences, clinical sciences, and consumer sciences in business.Accessible, including the basics of essential concepts of probability and random samplingExamples with R programming language and JAGS softwareComprehensive coverage of all scenarios addressed by non-Bayesian textbooks: t-tests, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and comparisons in ANOVA, multiple regression, and chi-square (contingency table analysis)Coverage of experiment planningR and JAGS computer programming code on websiteExercises have explicit purposes and guidelines for accomplishment
Provides step-by-step instructions on how to conduct Bayesian data analyses in the popular and free software R and WinBugs
Topics covered in the handbook include:Processes to enhance productionWell modification to maximize oil and gas recoveryCompletion and evaluation of wells, well testing, and well surveys
Reservoir Engineering Handbook, Fourth Edition provides solid information and insight for engineers and students alike on maximizing production from a field in order to obtain the best possible economic return. With this handbook, professionals will find a valuable reference for understanding the key relationships among the different operating variables. Examples contained in this reference demonstrate the performance of processes under forceful conditions through a wide variety of applications.
• Fundamental for the advancement of reservoir engineering concepts
• Step-by-step field performance calculations
• Easy to understand analysis of oil recovery mechanisms
• Step-by-step analysis of oil recovery mechanisms
• New chapter on fractured reservoirs
This upper-level undergraduate text is fully illustrated and meticulously indexed. Its reliable, authoritative coverage assumes an upper-level command of chemistry and physics, as well as mineralogy, petrology, and structural geology.
Outstanding features . . .
develops and combines the abilities of the explorationist and of the researcher of ore-forming processes
structures the geologic descriptions into groupings recognized by researchers and explorers alike
builds confidence, revitalizes curiosity, and encourages expanded thinking
emphasizes that the days of easy discovery of outcropping ores are not over
includes revised, expanded, and updated descriptions of districts
Until around ten years ago, the only planets that we knew about were within the Solar System. The first genuine planet beyond the confines of the Solar System was discovered only 1988. Since then another 350 or so exoplanets have been detected by various methods, and most of these haven been found in the last ten years. Although many more exoplanets discoveries may be expected to occur even as this book is being read, a large enough data set is now available to form the basis for an informed general account of exoplanets.
The topic hence is an extremely "hot" one - all the more so because the recently launched Kepler spacecraft should soon start uncovering many more exoplanets, some perhaps comparable with the Earth (and therefore possibly alternative homes for mankind, if we could ever reach them). Exoplanets: Finding, Exploring, and Understanding Alien Life gives a comprehensive, balances, and above all accurate account of exoplanets.
Following an introduction to Fossil-Lagerstätten, each chapter deals with a single fossil locality. Each chapter contains a brief introduction placing the Lagerstätte in an evolutionary context; there then follows a history of study of the locality; the background sedimentology, stratigraphy and palaeoenvironment; a description of the biota; discussion of the palaeoecology, and a comparison with other Lagerstätten of a similar age and/or environment. At the end of the book is an Appendix listing museums in which to see exhibitions of fossils from each locality and suggestions for visiting the sites.
Join author Mike Oard as he explores what is termed as "the retreating stage of the flood" - the seven month-period when the waters receded and the landscapes which are familiar to us were formed by a myriad of processes like uplifts and sinking, erosion, and more, which answer important questions regarding:Unusual dispersals of rocks over hundred of miles How quickly mountains and valleys were carved Emergence of continents and the formation of ocean basins Percussions marks shaped by vast and violently moving water Why very gradual erosion and deposits of soil cannot explain surface formations The study of geomorphology and what it can reveal
Flood by Design takes you into a fascinating aspect of the Genesis flood you may never have considered. Examine unusual rock formations and evidence that only the biblical flood model can fully explain. Filled with many photographs and easy-to-understand illustrations and charts, the books is a powerful source of research and answers for high school students and beyond.
The authors first present an overview of publicly available baseball datasets and a gentle introduction to the type of data structures and exploratory and data management capabilities of R. They also cover the traditional graphics functions in the base package and introduce more sophisticated graphical displays available through the lattice and ggplot2 packages. Much of the book illustrates the use of R through popular sabermetrics topics, including the Pythagorean formula, runs expectancy, career trajectories, simulation of games and seasons, patterns of streaky behavior of players, and fielding measures. Each chapter contains exercises that encourage readers to perform their own analyses using R. All of the datasets and R code used in the text are available online.
This book helps readers answer questions about baseball teams, players, and strategy using large, publically available datasets. It offers detailed instructions on downloading the datasets and putting them into formats that simplify data exploration and analysis. Through the book’s various examples, readers will learn about modern sabermetrics and be able to conduct their own baseball analyses.
*Review of GPR theory and applications by leaders in the field
*Up-to-date information and references
*Effective handbook and primary research reference for both experienced practitioners and newcomers
The author begins with basic characteristics of financial time series data before covering three main topics:Analysis and application of univariate financial time series The return series of multiple assets Bayesian inference in finance methods
Key features of the new edition include additional coverage of modern day topics such as arbitrage, pair trading, realized volatility, and credit risk modeling; a smooth transition from S-Plus to R; and expanded empirical financial data sets.
The overall objective of the book is to provide some knowledge of financial time series, introduce some statistical tools useful for analyzing these series and gain experience in financial applications of various econometric methods.
Recent advances in the field, particularly Parrondo's paradox, have triggered a surge of interest in the statistical and mathematical theory behind gambling. This interest was acknowledge in the motion picture, "21," inspired by the true story of the MIT students who mastered the art of card counting to reap millions from the Vegas casinos. Richard Epstein's classic book on gambling and its mathematical analysis covers the full range of games from penny matching to blackjack, from Tic-Tac-Toe to the stock market (including Edward Thorp's warrant-hedging analysis). He even considers whether statistical inference can shed light on the study of paranormal phenomena. Epstein is witty and insightful, a pleasure to dip into and read and rewarding to study. The book is written at a fairly sophisticated mathematical level; this is not "Gambling for Dummies" or "How To Beat The Odds Without Really Trying." A background in upper-level undergraduate mathematics is helpful for understanding this work.
o Comprehensive and exciting analysis of all major casino games and variants o Covers a wide range of interesting topics not covered in other books on the subject o Depth and breadth of its material is unique compared to other books of this nature
Richard Epstein's website: www.gamblingtheory.net
· New in-depth coverage of hydrocarbon characteristics, the different kinds of reservoirs, and impurities in crude.
· Practical suggestions help readers understand the art and science of handling produced liquids.
· Numerous, easy-to-read figures, charts, tables, and photos clearly explain how to design, specify, and operate oilfield surface production facilities.