Bangladesh’s second Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper -- “Steps Towards Change: National Strategy for Accelerated Poverty Reduction II (NSAPR II)” – provides a framework for implementing the government’s agenda during FY09-FY11. First prepared by a Caretaker government,1 the NSAPR II was later revised by the current elected government to reflect its priorities. The NSAPR II outlines five strategic priorities and describes the supporting strategies to achieve them. This Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) provides feedback on priority areas for strengthening the NSAPR II and its implementation.

Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers are prepared by member countries in broad consultation with stakeholders and development partners, including the staffs of the World Bank and the IMF. Updated with annual progress reports, they describe the countries macroeconomic, structural, and social policies in support of growth and poverty reduction, as well as associated external financing needs and major sources of financing. This country document for Bangladesh is being available on the IMF website by agreement of the member country as a service to users of the IMF website.

Benin has made significant progress in consolidating macroeconomic stability under the IMF-supported program. Its prudent fiscal policy has kept fiscal deficits at manageable levels and is projected to yield a basic primary surplus in 2012. The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) suggested that the authorities hold current expenditures to provide space for infrastructure spending and meet medium-term fiscal objectives. Benin’s authorities are committed to maintain sound macroeconomic policies, pursue the implementation of critical structural reforms, and take further measure to achieve program objectives.

This Selected Issues paper reviews the extent to which growth in Ethiopia has translated into higher living standards. A key feature of the economic strategy has been an explicit commitment to poverty reduction and structural transformation. This is underpinned by the vision of a “developmental state,” whereby a proactive public sector leads the development process and the private sector is oriented to support the development goals. The paper also identifies key bottlenecks hindering further broadening of growth across key sectors to reduce poverty, and highlights the main areas for policy action.

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that Togo has made significant progress in macroeconomic stability, but challenges remain in accelerating economic reforms and reducing poverty. Real economic growth accelerated from almost 4½ in 2010–2011 to 5¾ in 2012–2013, reflecting dynamism in agriculture, mining, construction and public works, particularly in transportation infrastructure. Growth has been accompanied by a widening of the current account deficit, financed mainly through foreign direct investment. Directors have commended the authorities’ actions to control the fiscal deficit and to set Togo on a sustainable debt path.

This paper focuses on Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (EDPRS) 2013–2018 for Rwanda. Ownership of the EDPRS by a wide range of stakeholders at national level has been a key factor of success. The EDPRS 2 has integrated inclusiveness and sustainability as driving factors in elaborating the strategy. Community-based solutions, working closely with the population, have made possible fast-track and cost-effective implementation and increased demand for accountability, in education with the 9YBE construction of classrooms, the Crop Intensification Program in agriculture, and community-based health care programs.

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.

This IMF Staff Report for the 2013 Article IV Consultation presents economic development and policies of Tthe Gambia. The IMF report shows that Tthe Gambia’s economy is picking up slowly from the past drought conditions. The Gambian Programme for Accelerated Growth and Employment (PAGE) emphasizes fiscal adjustment, together with infrastructure investment and structural reforms to support inclusive growth. Fiscal adjustment is needed to ease the heavy debt burden, arising mainly from domestic debt. Execution of the PAGE, supported by commitments from development partners, would help reduce poverty, especially in rural areas, given a strong focus on agriculture.

Niger understands the need to adopt a long-term strategy capable of optimizing natural and human resources to promote sustainable economic and social development and inclusive growth. The government has renewed planning efforts in the preparation of three principal strategic documents. These three strategic planning tools are complementary, and the government is committed to implementing them so that they interact with each other synergistically while ensuring dynamic linkages between short-, medium-, and long-term programs.

The October 2013 Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa provides a comprehensive report on the prospects for growth in the region, as well as the major risks to the outlook. Generally, growth is expected to remain strong despite a downward revision since the May 2013 report. The report analyzes drivers of growth in nonresource-rich sub-Saharan African countries, and examines the risks to frontier market economies of volatile capital flows as they become more integrated with international capital markets.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context: A series of coups d’état since independence have resulted in chronic political instability and deterred economic and social progress. Guinea-Bissau has re-initiated progress since the assumption of office of the current inclusive government in mid-2014. The economy is now recovering after a decline in 2012 and marginal growth in 2013. Inflation remains low, and socio-political stability seems achievable. The coup d’état of April 2012 stalled implementation of the three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF)- supported program approved by the Board in May 2010, and the arrangement lapsed subsequently. The Fund’s support under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) disbursement of 2014 and the authorities’ commitment to reforms have re-ignited donor confidence. Article IV Discussions. Policy discussions focused on measures to overcome fragility; fiscal consolidation and public financial management reforms; restoring financial stability; borrowing policies and long-term debt sustainability; private sector development and structural reforms to enhance inclusive growth prospects. The Proposed Program. The authorities’ development program, anchored on the Strategic Plan for 2014–18, aims to consolidate the fiscal position through better expenditure management and enhanced revenue mobilization, deepen institutional reform, mitigate vulnerabilities, and develop the private sector to support growth and employment. The program focuses on improving the policy framework by addressing governance and security issues, strengthening budgetary transparency as well as public investment and debt management, and improving compilation of statistics. Structural benchmarks focus on these issues while QPCs include a floor on revenues collection and a ceiling on net credit to government (the anchor of the program). Request for an Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. To support their medium-term economic reform program, the authorities request a three-year arrangement under the ECF in an amount equivalent to SDR 17.04 million (120 percent of quota). Risks to the program include the still fragile political situation, which could delay implementation of reforms, adverse terms of trade developments, and weakening donor confidence, and the heightened risk of incursion of the Ebola virus from neighboring countries.

This paper discusses Guinea’s Fifth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), Financing Assurances Review, and Requests for an Augmentation of Access and Extension of Current Arrangement. Performance under the ECF program has been satisfactory. All quantitative performance criteria have been met. Macroeconomic policies in 2015 will remain supportive to help deal with the Ebola outbreak. The IMF staff supports the completion of the fifth review under the ECF arrangement and financing assurances review and requests for an extension of the current arrangement to end-2015, an augmentation in access, and disbursement of 25 percent of quota as budget support under the 5th review.

The Republic of Congo has been hit hard by the oil price shock. Fiscal and current account balances deteriorated in 2014 reflecting increased government spending and lower oil prices. Corrective measures are now being taken. Private sector activity is held back by infrastructure gaps, a difficult business climate, and a shallow financial system. Growth and spending have yet to translate into significant reductions in poverty and progress in this area lags peers. Persistent inequality could be a source of instability.

Rwanda has responded to lower aid by tightening policies and drawing on its foreign reserves to cushion the impact on the economy. Economic activity has been resilient despite lower aid inflows. The agreed framework for the FY2013/14 budget is in line with Policy Support Instrument (PSI) objectives. The government’s intention to develop a comprehensive plan for enhancing domestic revenue mobilization over the medium term is timely. Rwanda’s new poverty reduction strategy (EDPRS2) and the commitment to tighten the monetary stance while allowing greater exchange rate flexibility is encouraging.

Burundi’s Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement is discussed. The measures undertaken to enhance fiscal outlook by the 2015 elections are reviewed. Satisfactory progress has been made on structural reforms. Policy discusses have focused on reinvigorating program implementation after the difficulties in completing the third review under the ECF arrangement. The IMF staff recommends the completion of the fourth review under the ECF arrangement, setting of new performance and indicative criteria for September 2014, and the disbursement of SDR 5 million.

Cote d'Ivoire: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper - Executive Summary of Progress Report

This paper discusses Guinea-Bissau’s Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF). In 2012 and 2013, Guinea-Bissau suffered a severe balance of payments shock as the international price of raw cashew nuts—the main export product—fell by about 20 percent per year. The authorities have requested assistance under the RCF to help address the urgent balance of payments and fiscal financing needs for 2014. The IMF staff supports the authorities’ request for assistance under the RCF in view of their currently limited capacity to implement policies of an upper credit tranche-quality economic program, the large and urgent balance of payments need, and the catalytic effect of IMF support for other external financing.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Context. The Zimbabwean authorities have made progress in implementing their macroeconomic and structural reform programs, despite the economic and financial difficulties. During 2015, the authorities’ policy reform agenda will continue to focus on: (a) reducing the primary fiscal deficit to raise Zimbabwe’s capacity to repay; (b) restoring confidence in the financial system; (c) improving the business climate; and (d) garnering support for an arrears clearance strategy. Recent developments, outlook, and risks. Zimbabwe’s economic prospects remain difficult. Growth has slowed and is expected to weaken further in 2015. Despite the favorable impact of lower oil prices, the external position remains precarious and the country is in debt distress. Key risks to the outlook stem largely from a further decline in global commodity prices, fiscal challenges, and possible difficulties in policy implementation. However, the authorities are committed to intensifying their efforts to ensure successful implementation of the program and to lay the ground for stronger, more inclusive, and lasting economic growth. Program performance. All quantitative targets and structural benchmarks for the first review under the staff-monitored program (SMP) were met. The authorities demonstrated strong commitment to the program, in a difficult economic and financial environment. Moreover, they have made meaningful progress in implementing other key structural reforms, such as making operational an asset management company and amending the indigenization and empowerment law. Reengagement with creditors. The authorities have stepped up their reengagement with creditors, including by increasing payments to the World Bank (WB) and the African Development Bank (AfDB), a key step in their roadmap toward seeking rescheduling of bilateral official debt under the umbrella of the Paris Club. These developments constitute important steps toward reengaging with the international financial institutions (IFIs). They plan to step up their efforts to build consensus among creditors and development partners on ways to address the external arrears.

This paper discusses Mozambique’s Second Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and Request for Modification of Assessment Criteria. Mozambique’s economy remains buoyant and recovered quickly from the severe floods in early 2013. Growth is estimated at 7 percent for 2013, with strong performance in coal mining, construction, transport, communications, and financial services. Inflation remains low notwithstanding accommodative monetary policy and rapid credit expansion. The real effective exchange rate was broadly stable in 2013 and a nominal appreciation against the South African rand helped to limit inflation. Program performance to date has been broadly satisfactory. The IMF staff recommends the completion of the second PSI review.

Economic activity was buoyant in Niger thanks to a new oil project, contributing to a strengthened external account and a rebound in agricultural production. Economic developments, however, remained vulnerable to climatic shocks and the fragile security situation in the region. Fiscal developments were affected by shortfalls in oil and customs revenue credit to the private sector. The government budget has been made with the objective of maintaining macroeconomic stability while advancing development. The implementation of the financial sector development strategy and poverty reduction strategy is required.

Guinea-Bissau: Selected Issues

This 2016 Article IV Consultation highlights that growth in Tanzania has remained strong and inflation moderate during the past two years. Real GDP grew by 7 percent in 2015, with activity particularly buoyant in the construction, communication, finance, and transportation sectors. Inflation remained in single digits throughout 2015, averaging 5.6 percent, despite the significant exchange rate depreciation in the first half of 2015. Inflation in April 2016 was 5.1 percent, close to the authorities’ target of 5 percent. The banking system appears sound overall, but there is wide variation within the system. The level of financial development has improved in recent years, though at a gradual pace.

Sub-Saharan Africa's economic recovery is well under way, although among country groups there is variation in the speed of the recovery. In most of the region's low-income countries and among the seven oil exporters growth is almost back to precrisis levels. However, in the region's middle-income countries, including South Africa, the recovery has been more gradual. This Regional Economic Outlook describes the impact of recent economic developments---sharp increases in food and fuel prices will need fiscal interventions targeting the poor, while higher oil prices will be a boon to some countries and adversely affect others. Policy adjustments are needed to move away from the supportive stance of the last few years but should be balanced against the need to alleviate the impact of rising food prices on poor households.

Mali’s territorial integrity is threatened, questioning its internal capacity to face challenges and especially to ensure the physical safety of goods and individuals. The government is committed to implement all measures to overcome this situation. More specifically, it will increase political and diplomatic actions for a quick and successful crisis outcome, maintain peace and security, revive economic activity, maintain social gains and target the poorest populations, fight against corruption and financial crime, and improve revenue mobilization to reduce dependence on aid.

Growth remained strong in the region in 2012, with regional GDP rates increasing in most countries (excluding Nigeria and South Africa). Projections point to a moderate, broad-based acceleration in growth to around 5½ percent in 2013¬14, reflecting a gradually strengthening global economy and robust domestic demand. Investment in export-oriented sectors remains an important economic driver, and an agriculture rebound in drought-affected areas will also help growth. Uncertainties in the global economy are the main risk to the region’s outlook, but plausible adverse shocks would likely not have a large effect on the region’s overall performance.

This paper analyzes Burundi’s Third Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria. Policy discussions in the program focus on measures to strengthen fiscal performance, which have been reflected in a revised 2013 budget, bolstering public financial and debt management. The report highlights that the macroeconomic outlook remains difficult, compounded by downside risks related to uncertainties in the external economic environment. Also, the need to preserve debt sustainability continues to anchor medium-term fiscal policy.

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that recent macroeconomic developments in The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia are encouraging, with a significant deceleration in inflation and continued robust economic growth. Despite significant decline in coffee prices and supply bottlenecks, growth remains robust, supported by better agriculture output and construction and other services activities. Inflation declined from the peak of 40 percent in July 2011 to about 7 percent in June 2013. This has significantly eased the extent to which real interest rates were negative. Fiscal policy at the general government level remains prudent with cautious execution of the government budget.

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in Ghana continued at a robust pace of 8 percent in 2012 amid rising fiscal and external imbalances. Fiscal pressures came to the fore in a mounting public sector wage bill and costly energy subsidies that pushed the deficit close to 12 percent of GDP. The growth momentum continues into 2013, with increased oil production projected to keep overall GDP growth close to 8 percent. Non-oil growth is likely to decelerate, however, as a result of energy disruptions and high real interest rates.

Prepared by the Policy Wing of the IMF African Department, and published twice a year in English and French, Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa analyzes economic performance and short-term prospects of the 44 countries covered by the Department. Topics examined in recent volumes include responses to exogenous shocks, growth performance and growth-enhancing policies, the effectiveness of regional trade arrangements, macroeconomic implications of scaled-up aid, financial sector development, and fiscal decentralization. Detailed country data, grouped by oil-exporting and -importing countries and by subregion, are provided in an appendix and a statistical appendix, and a list of relevant publications by the African Department is included.

KEY ISSUES Background. The Ebola outbreak that started in one district in late May has spread to the entire country, overwhelming already weak institutions and ill-equipped medical facilities. At end-August, over 1000 people were infected and more than a third had died from the disease. The country’s social and economic fabric is also adversely affected by the epidemic. Economic growth has slowed, inflationary pressures have intensified, and new balance of payments and fiscal financing needs have emerged. The epidemic has heightened food insecurity and impacted livelihoods for a large portion of the population, generating additional distress for vulnerable groups. The program. In October 21, 2013, the Executive Board approved a three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Sierra Leone totaling SDR 62.2 million (60 percent of quota). The first review under the program was completed on June 19, 2014. Preliminary indications are that performance under the program is on track, in spite of weaknesses in budget execution at end-June. The authorities’ requests. In the attached letter of intent, the Sierra Leone authorities are requesting an Ad Hoc review under the ECF arrangement, and an augmentation of access in an amount equivalent to 25 percent of quota (SDR 25.925 million), in a single disbursement. These resources, together with contributions from other donors will help cover balance of payments and budgetary financing needs generated by the Ebola epidemic. The authorities are also requesting a modification of end-December 2014 performance criteria on net domestic bank credit to the central government, and on net domestic assets of the central bank. Safeguard assessment. A safeguards assessment of the Bank of Sierra Leone (BoSL) was completed in March 2014. The BoSL is taking steps to strengthen its safeguards framework and staff is monitoring implementation of the recommendations from the assessment. Staff views. Staff supports the completion of the Ad Hoc review, and the authorities’ requests.

Comoros remains in debt distress, pending the achievement of the completion point under the Highly Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) Initiative. The outlook for 2012 is broadly consistent with expectations under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement. The IMF Executive Board has approved a three-year ECF arrangement to support Comoros’ medium-term economic recovery efforts. The government has continued pursuing a prudent external debt management policy. Achievement of the government’s fiscal objectives requires close adherence to the fiscal program to enhance the efficiency of tax and customs administration and to expand the tax base.

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.

Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) are prepared by member countries in broad consultation with stakeholders and development partners, including the staffs of the World Bank and the IMF. Updated every three years with annual progress reports, they describe the country’s macroeconomic, structural, and social policies in support of growth and poverty reduction, as well as associated external financing needs and major sources of financing. This country document for Guinea, dated May 2012 is being made available on the IMF website by agreement with the member country as a service to users of the IMF website.

This paper discusses Seychelles’ Eighth Review Under the Extended Arrangement. Economic growth and macroeconomic stability improved in 2013. A robust rise in tourism earnings supported growth, as well as a reduction in the current account deficit as a share of GDP. All performance criteria for end-June 2013, the program’s last test date, were met. All the third quarter indicative targets were also met. The measures in the structural benchmarks were all completed, although there were short delays compared with initial plans for technical reasons. IMF staff recommends completion of the eighth review under the Extended Arrangement.

This paper discusses Tanzania’s Second Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI). Tanzania’s macroeconomic performance remains strong. Program performance since the last review has been uneven. All end-2014 assessment criteria were met, though the indicative target on tax revenue collection was missed. Good progress was made on structural benchmarks. Shortfalls in domestic revenue continued in early 2015, and delays were incurred in mobilizing external financing and adjusting expenditure in the context of the mid-year budget review. The IMF staff recommends completion of the second PSI review and modification of assessment criteria on net international reserves and net domestic financing for end-June 2015.

KEY ISSUES Background. The Gambian economy is facing urgent balance of payments needs triggered mostly by the impact of the regional Ebola outbreak on tourism. Although the country remains Ebola free, the regional outbreak is expected to cut by more than half tourism receipts for the 2014/15 season. During 2014?15, the impact of the shocks on the balance of payments, offset in part by lower global fuel prices, is estimated to be $40 million (over 5 percent of 2015 GDP). Policy slippages and persistent financial difficulties in public enterprises have exacerbated the problems and pushed The Gambia’s ECF arrangement off track. In their Letter of Intent the authorities have notified the Fund of their decision to cancel the arrangement. Request. The authorities are requesting support under the RCF—in an amount of SDR 7.775 million or equivalent to 25 percent of quota—to cope with the urgent balance of payments needs and a one-year staff-monitored program (SMP) to guide policy implementation before returning to a successor ECF arrangement, provided policies remain on track. Main policy commitments. The authorities have taken a number of upfront policy actions. The approved 2015 budget envisages lowering net domestic borrowing (NDB) to 1 percent of GDP in 2015 from 12¼ percent in 2014, anchored by a set of revenue and expenditure measures, and complemented by some $22 million in external budget support. The authorities have taken steps to resolve the financial problems of key public enterprises and intend to take measures to secure their medium-term fiscal consolidation and poverty reduction objectives. Staff’s view. Staff supports the authorities’ request. Staff views the package of measures articulated in the attached letter of intent as representing a considerable effort. The RCF disbursement would augment the authorities’ own strong adjustment efforts, help catalyze additional donor financing, and give the authorities the time needed to develop their medium-term adjustment plans. The SMP will provide the Gambian authorities an opportunity to establish a track record before moving to a successor ECF to which they aspire. A period of monitoring will also allow the time needed to assess the impact of the shocks fully and hence better tailor the objectives of a successor ECF arrangement.

Tanzania’s economic growth continues to be buoyant. The planned monetary policy tightening is aimed at entrenching gradual disinflation. Executive Directors recommend further enhancing the degree of exchange rate flexibility, and the fiscal deficit reduction envisaged in the draft budget is welcomed. Implementation of the structural reform agenda needs to be reinvigorated. Although the medium-term outlook remains strong, short-term risks to the program are foreseen. There is progress in areas including health, higher education enrollment, and revenue collection, but challenges in poverty reduction remain.

This paper discusses Chad’s First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria (PC), and Request for Modification of PC, and Augmentation of Access. Performance under the ECF supported program was broadly satisfactory in 2014, with four of six quantitative PCs observed as of end-December, and sustained implementation of the structural reform agenda. The authorities have adopted decisive measures to address large oil revenue shortfalls and close the external financing gap, particularly through a significant fiscal adjustment in 2015 and beyond. The IMF staff supports the completion of the first review under the ECF arrangement.

This paper discusses Malawi’s Fifth and Sixth Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) Arrangement, Request for Waivers for Non-observance of Performance Criteria (PCs), Extension of the Arrangement, Modification of PCs, and Rephasing of Disbursements. Program implementation was uneven given external financing shortfalls with several PCs not being observed. Three out of seven PCs for the fifth review were not met, including the continuous PC on the contracting of nonconcessional external loans. The new authorities are firmly committed to the core policies and objectives of the original ECF-supported program. Program discussions focused on key policy actions to address these challenges and bring the program back on track.

This paper discusses Senegal’s Sixth Review Under the Policy Support Instrument (PSI) and Request for Modification of an Assessment Criterion. GDP growth is on track to reach 4 percent in 2013 and is projected to increase to 4.6 percent in 2014. Inflation has been declining, following a good harvest, and should stay below 1 percent in 2013 and below 2 percent in 2014. Although all quantitative program targets for mid-2013 were met, structural reform implementation slowed significantly during the summer and most structural benchmarks were not met by their respective deadlines. The IMF Staff recommends completion of the sixth PSI review.

In recent years, the IMF has released a growing number of reports and other documents covering economic and financial developments and trends in member countries. Each report, prepared by a staff team after discussions with government officials, is published at the option of the member country.

This paper discusses the Democratic Republic of São Tomé and Príncipe’s First Review under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement. The economy remains vulnerable to external and domestic shocks. Growth decelerated to 4 percent in 2012, reflecting persistent global uncertainties, particularly in Europe, which contributed to a slowdown in foreign direct investment, and in the execution of the foreign-financed public investment program. Commercial banks profitability and capital-to-risk weighted assets ratio declined in 2012, reflecting more challenging lending conditions. The central bank continues to strengthen its banking supervision function through on-site inspections and enforcement of banking regulation.

In spite of the implementation of measures to strengthen public financial management during the last quarter of 2014, the performance criteria (PC) for end-2014 relating to gross tax revenue and bank and market financing of the government were not met owing to administrative weaknesses at the customs administration and a conflict with importers. However, following the increase in oil product taxation and steps to implement results-based management at the tax and customs administration, tax revenue was back on track at end-March 2015.

This year looks set to be another encouraging one for most sub-Saharan African economies. Reflecting mainly strong demand but also elevated commodity prices, the region's economy is set to expand by more than 5¼ percent in 2011. For 2012, the IMF staff's baseline projection is for growth to be higher at 5¾ percent, owing to one-off boosts to production in a number of countries. There are, however, specters at the feast: the increase in global food and fuel prices, amplified by drought affecting parts of the region, has hit the budgets of the poor and sparked rising inflation, and hesitations in the global recovery threaten to weaken export and growth prospects. The projection for 2012 for the region is highly contingent on global economic growth being sustained at about 4 percent. A further slowing of growth in advanced economies, curtailing global demand, would generate significant headwinds for the region's ongoing expansion, with more globally integrated countries likely to be most affected. Policies in the coming months need to tread a fine line between addressing the challenges that strong growth and recent exogenous shocks have engendered and warding off the adverse effects of another global downturn. In some slower-growing, mostly middle-income countries without binding financial constraints, policies should clearly remain supportive of output growth, even more so if global growth sputters. Provided the global economy experiences the currently predicted slow and steady growth, most of the region's low-income countries should focus squarely on medium-term considerations in setting fiscal policy while tightening monetary policy wherever nonfood inflation has climbed above single digits. In the event of a global downturn, subject to financing constraints, policies in these countries should focus on maintaining planned spending initiatives, while allowing automatic stabilizers to operate on the revenue side. For the region's oil exporters, better terms of trade provide a good opportunity to build up policy buffers against further price volatility.

KEY ISSUES Context and outlook: Despite strong macroeconomic performance under the Fund- supported program (2009–12) with economic activity steadily accelerating and inflation declining sharply, poverty remains pervasive and the economy vulnerable, exposing this progress to reversal. Limited fiscal space and shocks to revenues often offset by expenditure adjustments have not supported pro-poor and critical investment spending necessary for inclusive growth, giving rise to mounting social demands to share in the benefits of the accelerating growth. Focus of consultation: The discussions focused on medium-term policy measures to preserve macroeconomic stability while promoting inclusive growth, improve transparency and good governance in the natural resources sector; and foster financial stability and development. Key policy recommendations: • Maintain the fiscal anchor of no (net) central bank financing of the budget while creating fiscal space through enhanced domestic revenue mobilization, and improving the quality of public spending through public financial management (PFM) reforms, and building more robust buffers against external shocks. • Implement measures included in the updated governance matrix agreed with the World Bank and the recommendations of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI) and the National Conference on Mineral Resources Management (NCMRM) to enhance transparency and good governance in the management of natural resources. • Accelerate reforms of the Central Bank of the Congo (BCC) and the financial sector by (i) passing the central bank law to strengthen its independence and governance, (ii) completing its recapitalization, and (iii) strengthening its analytical capacity, (iv) disengaging from non-core activities, and (v) implement FSAP recommendations to promote financial sector stability and development.

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that inflation in Nigeria has remained in single digits for two years, and the banking sector, which has a strong capital base, is expanding credit. The trade surplus has been declining since the second quarter of 2013 on lower oil exports and continued strong growth of imports, and gross international reserves have been falling. The general government fiscal deficit and public debt have been kept low. The Executive Directors have commended authorities for progress in promoting Nigeria’s economic diversification and for their macroeconomic response to collapsing export prices.

This 2013 Article IV Consultation highlights that The Zambian economy has performed well in recent years, with strong growth and modest inflation, and has high growth potential. The government has resolved to step up development by scaling up investment in infrastructure. The current fiscal stance is unsustainable. To address risks of large arrears accumulations and additional central bank financing in 2013, it will be important for the authorities to adhere to their plans to reduce low-priority investment spending, and contain goods and services spending. IMF Staff recommends firmly addressing the fiscal slippages in 2014 and continuing to reduce fiscal deficits over the medium term.

This report reviews economic development of Namibia in the recent years after the global crisis. The country bounced back very well after the crisis. Namibia exhibited strong performance in the primary sectors, which has led to remarkable growth in the second half of 2012. The government has launched a three-year fiscal initiative to enhance job opportunities and preserve fiscal and external sustainability. Plans have been identified to strengthen banks, control mortgages, and improve the education system. The Executive Board has appreciated Namibia’s strong macroeconomic performance.