Following several high-profile company insolvencies, regulatory requirements have moved towards a risk-adjusted basis which has lead to the Solvency II developments. The key focus in the new regime is that financial companies need to analyze adverse developments in their portfolios. Reserving actuaries now have to not only estimate reserves for the outstanding loss liabilities but also to quantify possible shortfalls in these reserves that may lead to potential losses. Such an analysis requires stochastic modeling of loss liability cash flows and it can only be done within a stochastic framework. Therefore stochastic loss liability modeling and quantifying prediction uncertainties has become standard under the new legal framework for the financial industry.
This book covers all the mathematical theory and practical guidance needed in order to adhere to these stochastic techniques. Starting with the basic mathematical methods, working right through to the latest developments relevant for practical applications; readers will find out how to estimate total claims reserves while at the same time predicting errors and uncertainty are quantified. Accompanying datasets demonstrate all the techniques, which are easily implemented in a spreadsheet. A practical and essential guide, this book is a must-read in the light of the new solvency requirements for the whole insurance industry.
Over the years, market developments have proven the wisdom of Graham’s strategies. While preserving the integrity of Graham’s original text, this revised edition includes updated commentary by noted financial journalist Jason Zweig, whose perspective incorporates the realities of today’s market, draws parallels between Graham’s examples and today’s financial headlines, and gives readers a more thorough understanding of how to apply Graham’s principles.
Vital and indispensable, The Intelligent Investor is the most important book you will ever read on how to reach your financial goals.
This book is the story of a financial sector that has grown hugely in importance in the 40 years since Euroclear, now the world’s premier settlement system for domestic and international securities transactions, was created to deal with a settlement crisis that threatened to smother the international capital market in its infancy.
Beginning with the settlement crisis in the Eurobond market, this book describes how Euroclear and later Cedel, its arch-rival, were founded to deal with the problem. It follows the challenges posed by cross-border settlement for a growing range of securities when most financial infrastructures operated only within national frontiers. The book demonstrates how securities settlement became an issue for public policy after the stock market crash of 1987 and how the problems of cross-border settlement moved rapidly up the European policy agenda after the euro’s launch.
More than a mere history, this book engages with the people who created the modern European securities settlement industry and taps into the often entertaining memories of its founding fathers. This book also focuses on the difficulties and challenges of cross-border transactions which have been identified as hampering Europe’s economic growth. It looks at the present state of the industry seeking a way forward so that the securities settlement infrastructure will better serve a single European capital market.
Property funds, insurance companies, pension and life funds, speculators, hedge funds or any asset manager with a view on the real estate market can apply the new derivatives to hedge property risk, to invest synthetically in real estate, or for portfolio optimization. Moreover, developers, builders, home suppliers, occupiers, banks, mortgage lenders and governmental agencies can better cope with their real estate exposure using property derivatives.
This book is a practical introduction to property derivatives and their numerous applications. Providing a comprehensive overview of the property derivatives market and indices, there is also in-depth coverage of pricing, hedging and risk management, which will deepen the readers understanding of the market's mechanisms.
Covering both the theoretical and practical aspects of the property derivatives markets; this book is the definitive reference guide to a new and fast-growing market.
Michael Lewis creates a fresh, character-driven narrative brimming with indignation and dark humor, a fitting sequel to his #1 bestseller Liar's Poker. Out of a handful of unlikely-really unlikely-heroes, Lewis fashions a story as compelling and unusual as any of his earlier bestsellers, proving yet again that he is the finest and funniest chronicler of our time.
Bringing together some of the best authors in the field, this book focuses on the risk management issues associated with both soft and hard commodities: energy, weather, agriculturals, metals and shipping. Taking the reader through every part of the commodities markets, the authors discuss the intricacies of modelling spot and forward prices, as well as the design of new Futures markets. The book also looks at the use of options and other derivative contract forms for hedging purposes, as well as supply management in commodity markets. It looks at the implications for climate policy and climate research and analyzes the various freight derivatives markets and products used to manage shipping and freight risk in a global commodity world.
It is required reading for energy and mining companies, utilities’ practitioners, commodity and cash derivatives traders in investment banks, CTA’s and hedge funds
* Increased pressure to add value through investments makes this a hot topic in the investment world
* Combined theoretical and practical approach makes this book appealing to a wide audience of quants and investors
* The only book to show how to design and implement quantitative models for gaining positive alpha
Bitcoin, the first successful decentralized digital currency, is still in its early stages and yet it’s already spawned a multi-billion-dollar global economy open to anyone with the knowledge and passion to participate. Mastering Bitcoin provides the knowledge. You simply supply the passion.
The second edition includes:A broad introduction of bitcoin and its underlying blockchain—ideal for non-technical users, investors, and business executivesAn explanation of the technical foundations of bitcoin and cryptographic currencies for developers, engineers, and software and systems architectsDetails of the bitcoin decentralized network, peer-to-peer architecture, transaction lifecycle, and security principlesNew developments such as Segregated Witness, Payment Channels, and Lightning NetworkA deep dive into blockchain applications, including how to combine the building blocks offered by this platform into higher-level applicationsUser stories, analogies, examples, and code snippets illustrating key technical concepts
The book is aimed at entrants into investment banking and dealing businesses, existing personnel in non-trading jobs, and people outside of the financial services industry trying to gain a view into what drives dealers in today’s highly integrated marketplace. A committed reader is guaranteed to leave with a deep understanding of all current issues.
"This is an excellent introduction to the financial markets by an author with a strong academic approach and practical insights from trading experience. At a time when the proliferation of financial instruments and the increased use of sophisticated mathematics in their analysis, makes an introduction to financial markets intimidating to most, this book is very useful. It provides an insight into the core concepts across markets and uses mathematics at an accessible level. It equips readers to understand the fundamentals of markets, valuation and trading. I would highly recommend it to anyone looking to understand the essentials of successfully trading, structuring or using the entire range of financial instruments available today."
—Varun Gosain, Principal, Constellation Capital Management, New York
"Robert Dubil, drawing from his extensive prior trading experience, has made a significant contribution by writing an easy to understand book about the complex world of today’s financial markets, using basic mathematical concepts. The book is filled with insights and real life examples about how traders approach the market and is required reading for anyone with an interest in understanding markets or a career in trading."
—George Handjinicolaou, Partner, Etolian Capital, New York
"This book provides an excellent guide to the current state of the financial markets. It combines academic rigour with the author’s practical experience of the financial sector, giving both students and practitioners an insight into the arbitrage pricing mechanism."
—Zenji Nakamura, Managing Director, Europe Fixed Income Division, Nomura International plc, London
Describing how the key products and markets work, who the principle participants are and their overall goals and objectives, Andrew Chisholm provides a thorough overview of the global capital markets. The book covers a wide range of equity, debt, foreign exchange and credit instruments as well as the principal derivative products. In a step-by-step fashion, making extensive use of real world cases and examples, it explains money markets, foreign exchange, bond markets, cash equity markets, equity valuation techniques, swaps, forwards, futures, credit derivatives, options, option risk management and convertible bonds. An extensive glossary also explains concisely many of the ‘jargon’ expressions used in the financial markets.
Boasting an international focus, examples are drawn from major international markets around the world. It makes extensive use of numerical examples and case studies to help explain a wide range of cash and derivative products used in the capital markets business. It covers both debt and equity products and includes new material on credit products such as collateralized debt obligations and credit derivative structures; equity fundamental analysis, portfolio theory and convertible bonds. Market data has been fully updated from the first edition and recent events such as the ‘credit crisis’ are discussed.
Key features include:Discussion of the principles of Islamic finance; Introduction to the key products and procedures that International Financial Institutions are using or may adopt to fund a variety of clients ensuring Sharī´ah compliance; Discussion of the role Islamic finance can play in the development of the financial system and of economies; Practical and operational examples that cover deposit and fund management by banks involving financing of various sectors of the economy, risk management, accounting treatment, and working of Islamic financial markets and instruments.
This book is not only an important text for all banks and financial institutions entering this particular market with a commitment to building Islamic financial solutions, but is also essential reading for undergraduate and postgraduate students of Islamic finance.
The Art of Credit Derivatives shows practitioners how to put a framework in place which will support the securitization activity. By showing the models that support this activity and linking them with very practical examples, the authors show why a mind-shift within the quant community is needed - a move from simple modeling to a more hands on mindset where the modeler understands the trading implicitly.
The book has been written in five parts, covering the modeling framework; single name corporate credit derivatives; multi name corporate credit derivatives; asset backed securities and dynamic credit portfolio management.
Coverage includes:groundbreaking solutions to the inherent risks associated with investing in securitization instruments how to use the standardized credit indices as the most appropriate instruments in price discovery processes and why these indices are the essential tools for short term credit portfolio management why the dynamics of systemic correlation and the standardised credit indices are linked with leverage, and consequently the implications for liquidity and solvability of financial institutions how Lévy processes and long term memory processes are related to the understanding of economic activity why regulatory capital should be portfolio dependant and how to use stress tests and scenario analysis to model this how to put structured products in a mark-to market-environment, increasing transparency for accounting and compliance.
This book will be invaluable reading for Credit Analysts, Quantitative Analysts, Credit Portfolio Managers, Academics and anyone interested in these complex yet important markets.
Fully revised and updated to take in to account the new products, markets and risk requirements post financial crisis, Credit Derivatives: Trading, Investing and Risk Management, Second Edition, covers the subject from a real world perspective, tackling issues such as liquidity, poor data, and credit spreads, to the latest innovations in portfolio products, hedging and risk management techniques.
The book concentrates on practical issues and develops an understanding of the products through applications and detailed analysis of the risks and alternative means of trading.
It provides:a description of the key products, applications, and an analysis of typical trades including basis trading, hedging, and credit structuring; analysis of the industry standard 'default and recovery' and Copula models including many examples, and a description of the models' shortcomings; tools and techniques for the management of a portfolio or book of credit risks including appropriate and inappropriate methods of correlation risk management; a thorough analysis of counterparty risk; an intuitive understanding of credit correlation in reality and in the Copula model.
The book is thoroughly updated to reflect the changes the industry has seen over the past 5 years, notably with an analysis of the lead up and causes of the credit crisis. It contains 50% new material, which includes copula valuation and hedging, portfolio optimisation, portfolio products and correlation risk management, pricing in illiquid environments, chapters on the evolution of credit management systems, the credit meltdown and new chapters on the implementation and testing of credit derivative models and systems.
The book is accompanied by a website which contains tools for credit derivatives valuation and risk management, illustrating the models used in the book and also providing a valuation toolkit.
This revised and updated edition adds commentary on hot topics, including the current economic crisis, globalization, the economics of information, the intersection of economics and politics, and the history—and future—of the Federal Reserve.
Exotic Options and Hybrids is a practical guide to structuring, pricing and hedging complex exotic options and hybrid derivatives that will serve readers through the recent crisis, the road to recovery, the next bull market and beyond. Written by experienced practitioners, it focuses on the three main parts of a derivative’s life: the structuring of a product, its pricing and its hedging.
Divided into four parts, the book covers a multitude of structures, encompassing many of the most up-to-date and promising products from exotic equity derivatives and structured notes to hybrid derivatives and dynamic strategies. Based on a realistic setting from the heart of the business, inside a derivatives operation, the practical and intuitive discussions of these aspects make these exotic concepts truly accessible.
Adoptions of real trades are examined in detail, and all of the numerous examples are carefully selected so as to highlight interesting and significant aspects of the business. The introduction of payoff structures is accompanied by scenario analysis, diagrams and lifelike sample term sheets. Readers learn how to spot where the risks lie to pave the way for sound valuation and hedging of such products. There are also questions and accompanying discussions dispersed in the text, each exploited to illustrate one or more concepts from the context in which they are set.
The applications, the strengths and the limitations of various models are highlighted, in relevance to the products and their risks, rather than the model implementations. Models are de-mystified in separately dedicated sections, but their implications are alluded to throughout the book in an intuitive and non-mathematical manner.
By discussing exotic options and hybrids in a practical, non-mathematical and highly intuitive setting, this book will blast through the misunderstanding of exotic derivatives, enabling practitioners to fully understand and correctly structure, price and hedge theses products effectively, and stand strong as the only book in its class to make these “exotic” concepts truly accessible.
The book looks at private equity from the point of view of the individual or the business. How is a private business valued? How is the acquisition transaction processed? What are the due diligence issues that should be considered before moving ahead? A valuable insight to a rather opaque market.
Introduction to Private Equity covers the private equity industry as a whole, highlighting its historical development in order to put its recent development into perspective. The book covers its organization, governance and function, then details the various segments within the industry, including LBO, Venture Capital, Mezzanine Financing, Growth Capital and beyond. Finally, it offers a framework to anticipate and understand its future developments.
It provides a balanced perspective on the current corporate governance challenges which are affecting the industry and draws perspective to understand the evolution of the sector, following one of its major crises.
This book is a guide to ratings, the ratings industry and the mechanics and economics of obtaining a rating. It sheds light on the role that the agencies play in the international financial markets. It avoids the sensationalist approach often associated with studies of rating scandals and the financial crisis, and instead provides an objective and critical analysis of the business of ratings. The book will be of practical use to any individual who has to deal with ratings and the ratings industry in their day-to-day job.
"Rating agencies fulfil an important role in the capital markets, but given their power, they are frequently the object of criticism. Some of it is justified but most of it portrays a lack of understanding of their business. In their book The Rating Agencies and their Credit Ratings, Herwig and Patricia Langohr provide an excellent economic background to the role of rating agencies and also a thorough understanding of their business and the problems they face. I recommend this book to all those who have an interest in this somewhat arcane but extremely important area."
-Robin Monro-Davies, Former CEO, Fitch Ratings.
"At a time of unprecedented public and political scrutiny of the effectiveness and indeed the basic business model of the Credit Rating industry, and heightened concerns regarding the transparency and accountability of the leading agencies, this book provides a commendably comprehensive overview, and should provide invaluable assistance in the ongoing debate."
-Rupert Atkinson, Managing Director, Head of Credit Advisory Group, Morgan Stanley and member of the SIFMA Rating Agency Task Force
"The Langohrs have provided useful information in a field where one frequently finds only opinions or misconceptions. They supply a firm base from which to understand changes now underway. A well-read copy of this monograph should be close to the desk of every investor, issuer and financial regulator, legislator or commentator."
-John Grout, Policy and Technical Director, The Association of Corporate Treasurers
Icelanders wanted to stop fishing and become investment bankers. The Greeks wanted to turn their country into a pinata stuffed with cash and allow as many citizens as possible to take a whack at it. The Germans wanted to be even more German; the Irish wanted to stop being Irish.
Michael Lewis's investigation of bubbles beyond our shores is so brilliantly, sadly hilarious that it leads the American reader to a comfortable complacency: oh, those foolish foreigners. But when he turns a merciless eye on California and Washington, DC, we see that the narrative is a trap baited with humor, and we understand the reckoning that awaits the greatest and greediest of debtor nations.
The book begins by analysing the current state of the hedge fund industry - at the ongoing institutionalisation of the market, and at its latest developments. It then moves on to examine the range of risks, risk controls, and risk management strategies currently employed by practitioners, and focuses on particular risks embedded in the more classic investment strategies such as Long/Short, Convertible Arbitrage, Fixed Income Arbitrage, Short selling and risk arbitrage. Addressed along side these are other risks common to hedge funds, including liquidity risk, leverage risk and counterparty risk.
The book then moves on to examine more closely two models which provide the underpinning for market risk management in investment today - Style Value-at-Risk and Implicit Value-at-Risk. As well as full quantitative analysis and backtesting of each methodology, the authors go on to propose a new style model for style and implicit Var, complete with analysis, real life examples and backtesting. The authors then go on to discuss annualisation issues and risk return before moving on to propose a new model based on the authors own Best Choice Implicit VaR approach, incorporating quantitative analysis, market results and backtesting and also its potential for new hedge fund clone products.
This book is the only guide to VaR for Hedge Funds and will prove to be an invaluable resource as we embark into an era of increasing volatility and uncertainty.
A Foreign Exchange Primer provides a clear understanding of how this market functions, from the main products through to the techniques used, coverage of the main participants, details of the various 'players' and an understanding of the 'jargon' used in everyday dealings.
This concise, highly accessible primer is ideal for anyone new to or wanting to become involved in the foreign exchange market, from a dealing room or sales perspective through to the novice investor.
The Money Book for the Young, Fabulous & Broke is financial expert Suze Orman's answer to a generation's cry for help. They're called "Generation Debt" and "Generation Broke" by the media — people in their twenties and thirties who graduate college with a mountain of student loan debt and are stuck with one of the weakest job markets in recent history. The goals of their parents' generation — buy a house, support a family, send kids to college, retire in style — seem absurdly, depressingly out of reach. They live off their credit cards, may or may not have health insurance, and come up so far short at the end of the month that the idea of saving money is a joke. This generation has it tough, without a doubt, but they're also painfully aware of the urgent need to take matters into their own hands.
The Money Book was written to address the specific financial reality that faces young people today and offers a set of real, not impossible solutions to the problems at hand and the problems ahead. Concisely, pragmatically, and without a whiff of condescension, Suze Orman tells her young, fabulous & broke readers precisely what actions to take and why. Throughout these pages, there are icons that direct readers to a special YF&B domain on Suze's website that offers more specialized information, forms, and interactive tools that further customize the information in the book. Her advice at times bucks conventional wisdom (did she just say use your credit card?) and may even seem counter-intuitive (pay into a retirement fund even though your credit card debt is killing you?), but it's her honesty, understanding, and uncanny ability to anticipate the needs of her readers that has made her the most trusted financial expert of her day.
Over the course of ten chapters that can be consulted methodically, step-by-step or on a strictly need-to-know basis, Suze takes the reader past broke to a secure place where they'll never have to worry about revisiting broke again. And she begins the journey with a bit of overwhelmingly good news (yes, there really is good news): Young people have the greatest asset of all on their side — time.
Jumps and extreme events are crucial stylized features, essential in the modelling of the very volatile credit markets - the recent turmoil in the credit markets has once again illustrated the need for more refined models.
Readers will learn how the classical models (driven by Brownian motions and Black-Scholes settings) can be significantly improved by using the more flexible class of Lévy processes. By doing this, extreme event and jumps can be introduced into the models to give more reliable pricing and a better assessment of the risks.
The book brings in high-tech financial engineering models for the detailed modelling of credit risk instruments, setting up the theoretical framework behind the application of Lévy Processes to Credit Risk Modelling before moving on to the practical implementation. Complex credit derivatives structures such as CDOs, ABSs, CPPIs, CPDOs are analysed and illustrated with market data.
From the author of The Blind Side and Moneyball, The Big Short tells the story of four outsiders in the world of high-finance who predict the credit and housing bubble collapse before anyone else. The film adaptation by Adam McKay (Anchorman I and II, The Other Guys) features Academy Award® winners Christian Bale, Brad Pitt, Melissa Leo and Marisa Tomei; Academy Award® nominees Steve Carell and Ryan Gosling.
When the crash of the U.S. stock market became public knowledge in the fall of 2008, it was already old news. The real crash, the silent crash, had taken place over the previous year, in bizarre feeder markets where the sun doesn’t shine and the SEC doesn’t dare, or bother, to tread. Who understood the risk inherent in the assumption of ever-rising real estate prices, a risk compounded daily by the creation of those arcane, artificial securities loosely based on piles of doubtful mortgages? In this fitting sequel to Liar’s Poker, Michael Lewis answers that question in a narrative brimming with indignation and dark humor.
Fourier Transform Methods in Finance is a practical and accessible guide to pricing financial instruments using Fourier transform. Written by an experienced team of practitioners and academics, it covers Fourier pricing methods; the dynamics of asset prices; non stationary market dynamics; arbitrage free pricing; generalized functions and the Fourier transform method.
Readers will learn how to:compute the Hilbert transform of the pricing kernel under a Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) technique characterise the price dynamics on a market in terms of the characteristic function, allowing for both diffusive processes and jumps apply the concept of characteristic function to non-stationary processes, in particular in the presence of stochastic volatility and more generally time change techniques perform a change of measure on the characteristic function in order to make the price process a martingale recover a general representation of the pricing kernel of the economy in terms of Hilbert transform using the theory of generalised functions apply the pricing formula to the most famous pricing models, with stochastic volatility and jumps.
Junior and senior practitioners alike will benefit from this quick reference guide to state of the art models and market calibration techniques. Not only will it enable them to write an algorithm for option pricing using the most advanced models, calibrate a pricing model on options data, and extract the implied probability distribution in market data, they will also understand the most advanced models and techniques and discover how these techniques have been adjusted for applications in finance.
—Paul Embrechts, Professor of Mathematics and Director of RiskLab, ETH Zurich
The convergence of insurance with the capital markets has opened up an alternative channel for insurers to transfer risk, raise capital and optimize their regulatory reserves as well as offering institutions a source of relatively liquid investment with limited correlation with other exposures. One of the financial instruments allowing for the cession of insurance-related risks to the capital markets is Insurance-Linked Securities (ILS).
This book provides hands-on information essential for market participants, drawing on the insights and expertise of an impressive team of international market players, representing the various aspects and perspectives of this growing sector.
The book presents the state of the art in Insurance-Linked Securitization, by exploring the various roles for the different parties involved in the transactions, the motivation for the transaction sponsors, the potential inherent pitfalls, the latest developments and transaction structures and the key challenges faced by the market.
The book is organized into parts, each covering a specific topic or sector of the market. After a general overview of the ILS market, the Insurance-Linked Securitization process is studied in detail. A distinction is made between non-life and life securitization, due to the specificities of each sector. The process and all the actors involved are identified and considered in a comprehensive and systematic way. The concepts are first looked at in a general way, before the analysis of relevant case studies where the ILS technology is applied.
Particular focus is given to:the key stages in both non-life and life securitizations, including the general features of the transactions, the cedant's perspectives, the legal issues, the rating methodologies, the choice of an appropriate trigger and the risk modeling, the particular challenges related to longevity securitization, the investor's perspective and the question of the management of a portfolio of ILS, the general issues related to insurance-linked securitization, such as accounting and tax issues, regulatory issues and solvency capital requirements.
The book is accompanied by a website www.wiley.com/go/albertini_barrieu_ILS which will feature updates and additions to the various contributions to follow market developments.
While the formula may be simple, understanding why the formula works is the true key to success for investors. The book will take readers on a step-by-step journey so that they can learn the principles of value investing in a way that will provide them with a long term strategy that they can understand and stick with through both good and bad periods for the stock market.
As the Wall Street Journal stated about the original edition, “Mr. Greenblatt…says his goal was to provide advice that, while sophisticated, could be understood and followed by his five children, ages 6 to 15. They are in luck. His ‘Little Book’ is one of the best, clearest guides to value investing out there.”
–David Louton, Professor of Finance, Bryant University
This book is directed at both industry practitioners and students interested in designing a pricing and risk management framework for financial derivatives using the Python programming language.
It is a practical book complete with working, tested code that guides the reader through the process of building a flexible, extensible pricing framework in Python. The pricing frameworks' loosely coupled fundamental components have been designed to facilitate the quick development of new models. Concrete applications to real-world pricing problems are also provided.
Topics are introduced gradually, each building on the last. They include basic mathematical algorithms, common algorithms from numerical analysis, trade, market and event data model representations, lattice and simulation based pricing, and model development. The mathematics presented is kept simple and to the point.
The book also provides a host of information on practical technical topics such as C++/Python hybrid development (embedding and extending) and techniques for integrating Python based programs with Microsoft Excel.
Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.
This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.
The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.
However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.
Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.
PRAISE FOR FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS:
Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time
A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year
“[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”
–Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink
“The book that rolled down Wall Street like a hand grenade.”
–Maggie Mahar, author of Bull! A History of the Boom, 1982—1999
“Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.”
–Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas Evolving
“Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould.”
–Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play: How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate
“We need a book like this. . . . Fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.”
–Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance
“Powerful . . . loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance.”
Modelling Operational and Reputational Risks shows practitioners the best models to use in a given situation, according to the type of risk an organization is facing. Based on extensive applied research on operational risk models using real bank datasets, it offers a wide range of various testing models and fitting techniques for financial practitioners. With this book, professionals will have a foundation for measuring and predicting these important intangibles.
Aldo Soprano (Madrid, Spain) is Group Head of operational risk management at UniCredit Group.
It's safe to say that nearly everyone is seeking a happier, more successful life. So then why do so few attain it? Business Secrets from the Bible proposes a new way to view and approach success—one based upon key concepts from the Bible that are actually surprisingly simple. Written especially for those seeking success in the realms of money, relationships, and spirituality, this book encourages readers to realize their common mistakes, come to terms with them, and turn those mistakes into future triumphs. Filled with concrete advice for improved finances, spirituality, and connection, this resource takes a practical approach and aims to change not just the minds, but the actions of readers with a self-evident and persuasive pathway.
Drawing on his wisdom and knowledge of the Bible, the author reveals the clear link between making money and spirituality, and urges readers to focus on self-discipline, integrity, and character strength in order to achieve personal prosperity. Special emphasis is given to establishing positive attitudes toward making money and adopting effective Biblically-based strategies.Demonstrates how earnings and profits are God's reward for forming relationships with others and serving them Stresses the importance of service, sharing, change, leadership, and creating boundaries and structures Encourages readers to focus on other people's desires and teaches why and how to make connections with many people Suggests ways for readers to transform themselves and continue toward success even in the face of fear and uncertainty
Attaining wealth and well-being is no longer a mystery. Let this book identify and correct the errors that are keeping you from fulfillment and happiness.
The Commercial Imperative of a More Forensic and Transparent Approach
Brendon Young and Rodney Coleman
“Brendon Young and Rodney Coleman's book is extremely timely. There has never been a greater need for the financial industry to reassess the way it looks at risk. […] They are right to draw attention to the current widespread practices of risk management, which […] have allowed risk to become underpriced across the entire industry.”
Rt Hon John McFall MP, Chairman,
House of Commons Treasury Committee
Failure of the financial services sector to properly understand risk was clearly demonstrated by the recent 'credit crunch'. In its 2008 Global Stability Report, the IMF sharply criticised banks and other financial institutions for the failure of risk management systems, resulting in excessive risk-taking. Financial sector supervision and regulation was also criticised for lagging behind shifts in business models and rapid innovation.
This book provides investors with a sound understanding of the approaches used to assess the standing of firms and determine their true potential (identifying probable losers and potential longer-term winners). It advocates a 'more forensic' approach towards operational risk management and promotes transparency, which is seen as a facilitator of competition and efficiency as well as being a barrier to fraud, corruption and financial crime.
Risk assessment is an integral part of informed decision making, influencing strategic positioning and direction. It is fundamental to a company’s performance and a key differentiator between competing management teams. Increasing complexity is resulting in the need for more dynamic, responsive approaches to the assessment and management of risk. Not all risks can be quantified; however, it remains incumbent upon management to determine the impact of possible risk-events on financial statements and to indicate the level of variation in projected figures.
To begin, the book looks at traditional methods of risk assessment and shows how these have developed into the approaches currently being used. It then goes on to consider the more advanced forensic techniques being developed, which will undoubtedly increase understanding. The authors identify 'best practice' and address issues such as the importance of corporate governance, culture and ethics. Insurance as a mitigant for operational risk is also considered. Quantitative and qualitative risk assessment methodologies covered include: Loss-data analysis; extreme value theory; causal analysis including Bayesian Belief Networks; control risk self-assessment and key indicators; scenario analysis; and dynamic financial analysis.
Views of industry insiders, from organisations such as Standard & Poors, Fitch, Hermes, USS, UN-PRI, Deutsche Bank, and Alchemy Partners, are presented together with those from experts at the FSA, the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), and the Financial Reporting Council.
In addition to investors, this book will be of interest to actuaries, rating agencies, regulators and legislators, as well as to the directors and risk managers of financial institutions in both the private and public sectors. Students requiring a comprehensive knowledge of operational risk management will also find the book of considerable value.
De Weert begins by explaining the risks associated with trading an exotic option before dissecting these risks through a detailed analysis of the actual economics and Greeks rather than solely stating the mathematical formulae. The book limits the use of mathematics to explain exotic options from an economic and risk perspective by means of real life examples leading to a practical interpretation of the mathematical pricing formulae.
The book covers conventional options, digital options, barrier options, cliquets, quanto options, outperformance options and variance swaps, and explains difficult concepts in simple terms, with a practical approach that gives the reader a full understanding of every aspect of each exotic option. The book also discusses structured notes with exotic options embedded in them, such as reverse convertibles, callable and puttable reverse convertibles and autocallables and shows the rationale behind these structures and their associated risks.
For each exotic option, the author makes clear why there is an investor demand; explains where the risks lie and how this affects the actual pricing; shows how best to hedge any vega or gamma exposure embedded in the exotic option and discusses the skew exposure.
By explaining the practical implications for every exotic option and how it affects the price, in addition to the necessary mathematical derivations and tools for pricing exotic options, Exotic Options Trading removes the mystique surrounding exotic options in order to give the reader a full understanding of every aspect of each exotic option, creating a useable tool for dealing with exotic options in practice.
“Although exotic options are not a new subject in finance, the coverage traditionally afforded by many texts is either too high level or overly mathematical. De Weert's exceptional text fills this gap superbly. It is a rigorous treatment of a number of exotic structures and includes numerous examples to clearly illustrate the principles. What makes this book unique is that it manages to strike a fantastic balance between the theory and actual trading practice. Although it may be something of an overused phrase to describe this book as compulsory reading, I can assure any reader they will not be disappointed.”
—Neil Schofield, Training Consultant and author of Commodity Derivatives: Markets and Applications
“Exotic Options Trading does an excellent job in providing a succinct and exhaustive overview of exotic options. The real edge of this book is that it explains exotic options from a risk and economical perspective and provides a clear link to the actual profit and pricing formulae. In short, a must read for anyone who wants to get deep insights into exotic options and start trading them profitably.”
What happens when ordinary people are taught a system to make extraordinary money? Richard Dennis made a fortune on Wall Street by investing according to a few simple rules. Convinced that great trading was a skill that could be taught to anyone, he made a bet with his partner and ran a classified ad in the Wall Street Journal looking for novices to train. His recruits, later known as the Turtles, had anything but traditional Wall Street backgrounds; they included a professional blackjack player, a pianist, and a fantasy game designer. For two weeks, Dennis taught them his investment rules and philosophy, and set them loose to start trading, each with a million dollars of his money. By the time the experiment ended, Dennis had made a hundred million dollars from his Turtles and created one killer Wall Street legend.
In The Complete Turtle Trader, Michael W. Covel, bestselling author of Trend Following and managing editor of TurtleTrader.com, the leading website on the Turtles, tells their riveting story with the first ever on the record interviews with individual Turtles. He describes how Dennis interviewed and selected his students, details their education and experiences while working for him, and breaks down the Turtle system and rules in full. He reveals how they made astounding fortunes, and follows their lives from the original experiment to the present day. Some have grown even wealthier than ever, and include some of today's top hedge fund managers. Equally important are those who passed along their approach to a second generation of Turtles, proving that the Turtles' system truly is reproducible, and that anyone with the discipline and the desire to succeed can do as well as—or even better than—Wall Street's top hedge fund wizards.
In an era full of slapdash investing advice and promises of hot stock tips for "the next big thing," as popularized by pundits like Jim Cramer of Mad Money, the easy-to-follow objective rules of the TurtleTrader stand out as a sound guide for truly making the most out of your money. These rules worked—and still work today—for the Turtles, and any other investor with the desire and commitment to learn from one of the greatest investing stories of all time.
Beyond the J Curve provides the answers to key questions, including:Why 'top-quartile' promises should be taken with a huge pinch of salt and what it takes to select superior fund managers? What do limited partners need to consider when designing and managing portfolios? How one can determine the funds' economic value to help addressing the questions of 'fair value' under IAS 39 and 'risk' under Basel II or Solvency II? Why is monitoring important, and how does a limited partner manage his portfolio? How the portfolio's returns can be improved through proper liquidity management and what to consider when over-committing? And, why uncertainty rather than risk is an issue and how a limited partner can address and benefit from the fast changing private equity environment?
Beyond the J Curve takes the practitioner's view and offers private equity and venture capital professionals a comprehensive guide making high return targets more realistic and sustainable. This book is a must have for all parties involved in this market, as well as academic and students.
How do the world's most successful traders amass tens, hundreds of millions of dollars a year? Are they masters of an occult knowledge, lucky winners in a random market lottery, natural-born virtuosi—Mozarts of the markets? In search of an answer, bestselling author Jack D. Schwager interviewed dozens of top traders across most financial markets. While their responses differed in the details, all of them could be boiled down to the same essential formula: solid methodology + proper mental attitude = trading success. In Market Wizards Schwager lets you hear, in their own words, what those super-traders had to say about their unprecedented successes, and he distils their responses down into a set of guiding principles you can use to become a trading star in your own right.Features interviews with superstar money-makers including Bruce Kovner, Richard Dennis, Paul Tudor Jones, Michel Steinhardt, Ed Seykota, Marty Schwartz, Tom Baldwin, and more Tells the true stories behind sensational trading coups, including the one about the trader who turned $30,000 into $80 million, the hedge fund manager who's averaged 30% returns every year for the past twenty-one years, and the T-bond futures trader who parlayed $25,000 into $2 billion in a single day!
"Market Wizards is one of the most fascinating books ever written about Wall Street. A few of the 'Wizards' are my friends—and Jack Schwager has nailed their modus operandi on the head."
--Martin W. Zweig, Ph.D., Editor, The Zweig Forecast
Focusing on the practical use and calculation of performance returns rather than the academic background, Practical Portfolio Performance Measurement and Attribution provides a clear guide to the role and implications of these methods in today's financial environment, enabling readers to apply their knowledge with immediate effect.
Fully updated from the first edition, this book covers key new developments such as fixed income attribution, attribution of derivative instruments and alternative investment strategies, leverage and short positions, risk-adjusted performance measures for hedge funds plus updates on presentation standards. The book covers the mathematical aspects of the topic in an accessible and practical way, making this book an essential reference for anyone involved in asset management.
Using structures unique to the individual market, each chapter includes an explanation of the commodity and an analysis of its physical market, discussion on the typical patterns of demand and supply and the main factors that will influence the price of the commodity, and the main products.
Each chapter focuses on how the products could be used along the physical supply chain and seeks to identify the main market risks and how they can be hedged. The book then brings into perspective how the structuring banks hedge their own resultant exposure and examines the attraction of OTC investment structures for the wholesale market.
Commodity Derivatives: Markets and Applications is essential reading for those wishing to learn about the main features of the commodity markets, the mechanics of derivatives, and how they are applied.
The hedge fund industry has gone through dramatic changes in recent years. Investors of all types continue to want to place their assets into these investment vehicles even in the wake of the credit crisis, massive frauds, and insider trading scandals. Once the forbidden fruit of Wall Street, hedge funds are now considered "must have" investments in any diversified portfolio. Now in its second edition, The Fundamentals of Hedge Fund Management is revised and updated to address how the credit crisis, legislation, fraud, technology, investor demand, global markets, and the economic landscape have affected the industry.
Providing readers with a detailed and in-depth analysis of the world of hedge funds, the people working in it, and a look at where it's headed, the book is a timely and indispensable reference and research tool for helping professional money managers, traders, and others to launch and grow successful hedge fund businesses.Addresses how the credit crisis and its fallout has affected the hedge fund industry and what this means for the future Provides the essential information needed to launch and maintain a successful hedge fund in the new global economy Walks the reader through running a hedge fund, helping you to gain success over years, not just months
An essential resource for anyone looking to invest in these much-discussed investment products, The Fundamentals of Hedge Fund Management, Second Edition is now fully revised and updated.
Since its release in 2006, Financial Intelligence has become a favorite among managers who need a guided tour through the numbers—helping them to understand not only what the numbers really mean, but also why they matter.
This new, completely updated edition brings the numbers up to date and continues to teach the basics of finance to managers who need to use financial data to drive their business. It also addresses issues that have become even more important in recent years—including questions around the financial crisis and those around broader financial and accounting literacy.
Accessible, jargon-free, and filled with entertaining stories of real companies, Financial Intelligence gives nonfinancial managers the confidence to understand the nuance beyond the numbers—to help bring everyday work to a new level.
This book is up-to-date as it covers many of the important developments which have occurred in the credit derivatives market in the past 4-5 years. These include the arrival of the CDS portfolio indices and all of the products based on these indices. In terms of models, this book covers the challenge of modelling single-tranche CDOs in the presence of the correlation skew, as well as the pricing and risk of more recent products such as constant maturity CDS, portfolio swaptions, CDO squareds, credit CPPI and credit CPDOs.
The book is case-driven with each case analysing in detail a real-life hedging strategy. A broad range of hedging strategies have been included, some of them using sophisticated derivatives.
The objective of this book is to provide a conceptual framework based on the extensive use of cases so that readers can create their own accounting interpretation of the hedging strategy being considered. Accounting for Derivatives will be essential reading for CFOs, internal auditors and treasurers of corporations, professional accountants as well as derivatives professionals working at commercial and investment banks.
Key feature include:The only book to cover IAS39 from the derivatives practitioner’s perspective Extensive real-life case studies to providing essential information for the practitioner Covers hedging instruments such as forwards, swaps, cross-currency swaps, and combinations of standard options as well as more complex derivatives such as knock-in forwards, KIKO forwards, range accruals and swaps in arrears. Includes the latest information on FX hedging and hedging of commodities
Don't have much time? Get up to speed fast on the most essential business skills with HBR's 20-Minute Manager series. Whether you need a crash course or a brief refresher, each book in the series is a concise, practical primer that will help you brush up on a key management topic. Advice you can quickly read and apply, for ambitious professionals and aspiring executives--from the most trusted source in business. Also available as an ebook.
Fund manager Joel Greenblatt has been beating the Dow (with returns of 50 percent a year) for more than a decade. And now, in this highly accessible guide, he’s going to show you how to do it, too. You’re about to discover investment opportunities that portfolio managers, business-school professors, and top investment experts regularly miss—uncharted areas where the individual investor has a huge advantage over the Wall Street wizards. Here is your personal treasure map to special situations in which big profits are possible, including:
· Merger Securities
· Rights Offerings
· Risk Arbitrage
This accessible book, aimed at the implementers and practitioners of ERM, provides a highly structured approach so you can easily implement processes in your own organization. You'll find a number of case studies and practical examples from a variety of industries. The chapters are organized in a way that leads you through ERM implementation and include risk identification techniques, risk modelling methods, and the underlying statistics. Order your copy today!
Intended as a comprehensive reference for investors and fund and portfolio managers, Handbook of Hedge Funds combines new material with updated information from Francois-Serge L’habitant’s two other successful hedge fund books. This book features up-to-date regulatory and historical information, new case studies and trade examples, detailed analyses of investment strategies, discussions of hedge fund indices and databases, and tips on portfolio construction.
Francois-Serge L’habitant (Geneva, Switzerland) is the Head of Investment Research at Kedge Capital. He is Professor of Finance at the University of Lausanne and at EDHEC Business School, as well as the author of five books, including Hedge Funds: Quantitative Insights (0-470-85667-X) and Hedge Funds: Myths & Limits (0-470-84477-9), both from Wiley.
You work hard and try to save money, so why is there never enough to cover all the bills, to put some away in your child’s college fund, to pay off your credit card debt—or to relax and have some fun, for once? In the New York Times bestseller All Your Worth, mother/daughter team Elizabeth Warren and Amelia Warren Tyagi—authors of the acclaimed The Two-Income Trap—tell you the truth about money. The authors lay out a groundbreaking approach to getting control of your money so you can finally start building the life you’ve always wanted. The result of more than twenty years of intensive research, All Your Worth offers you a step-by-step plan that will let you master your finances—for the rest of your life.
The secret? It’s simple, really: get your money in balance. Warren and Tyagi show you how to balance your money into three essential parts: the Must-Haves (the bills you have to pay every month), the Wants (some fun money for right now), and your Savings (to build a better tomorrow). No complicated budgets, no keeping track of every penny. Warren and Tyagi will show you a whole new way of looking at money—and yourself—that will help you get your finances on track so you can enjoy peace of mind for the rest of your life.
Part I of the book covers the impact that the 2008 credit crunch has had on the markets, it then shows how to build up a convertible bond and introduces the reader to the traditional convertible vocabulary of yield to put, premium, conversion ratio, delta, gamma, vega and parity. The market of stock borrowing and lending will also be covered in detail. Using an intuitive approach based on the Jensen inequality, the authors will also show the advantages of using a hybrid to add value - pre 2008, many investors labelled convertible bonds as 'investing with no downside', there are of course plenty of 2008 examples to prove that they were wrong. The authors then go onto give a complete explanation of the different features that can be embedded in convertible bond.
Part II shows readers how to price convertibles. It covers the different parameters used in valuation models: credit spreads, volatility, interest rates and borrow fees and Maturity.
Part III covers investment strategies for equity, fixed income and hedge fund investors and includes dynamic hedging and convertible arbitrage.
Part IV explains the all important risk management part of the process in detail.
This is a highly practical book, all products priced are real world examples and numerical examples are not limited to hypothetical convertibles. It is a must read for anyone wanting to safely get into this highly liquid, high return market.
Written by renowned risk expert Jon Danielsson, the book begins with an introduction to financial markets and market prices, volatility clusters, fat tails and nonlinear dependence. It then goes on to present volatility forecasting with both univatiate and multivatiate methods, discussing the various methods used by industry, with a special focus on the GARCH family of models. The evaluation of the quality of forecasts is discussed in detail. Next, the main concepts in risk and models to forecast risk are discussed, especially volatility, value-at-risk and expected shortfall. The focus is both on risk in basic assets such as stocks and foreign exchange, but also calculations of risk in bonds and options, with analytical methods such as delta-normal VaR and duration-normal VaR and Monte Carlo simulation. The book then moves on to the evaluation of risk models with methods like backtesting, followed by a discussion on stress testing. The book concludes by focussing on the forecasting of risk in very large and uncommon events with extreme value theory and considering the underlying assumptions behind almost every risk model in practical use – that risk is exogenous – and what happens when those assumptions are violated.
Every method presented brings together theoretical discussion and derivation of key equations and a discussion of issues in practical implementation. Each method is implemented in both MATLAB and R, two of the most commonly used mathematical programming languages for risk forecasting with which the reader can implement the models illustrated in the book.
The book includes four appendices. The first introduces basic concepts in statistics and financial time series referred to throughout the book. The second and third introduce R and MATLAB, providing a discussion of the basic implementation of the software packages. And the final looks at the concept of maximum likelihood, especially issues in implementation and testing.
The book is accompanied by a website - www.financialriskforecasting.com – which features downloadable code as used in the book.
Wealthy, powerful, and potentially dangerous, hedge fund moguls have become the It Boys of twenty-first- century capitalism. Beating the market was long thought to be impossible, but hedge funds cracked its mysteries and made fortunes in the process. Drawing on his unprecedented access to the industry, esteemed financial writer Sebastian Mallaby tells the inside story of the hedge funds, from their origins in the 1960s to their role in the financial crisis of 2007 to 2009.
Read Sebastian Mallaby's new book, The Man Who Knew: The Life and Times of Alan Greenspan.
The content of the Hand Book is organised to provide a rapid yet comprehensive understanding of this topic. Chapter 1 sets out an overview of News Analytics (NA) with an explanation of the technology and applications. The rest of the chapters are presented in four parts. Part 1 contains an explanation of methods and models which are used to measure and quantify news sentiment. In Part 2 the relationship between news events and discovery of abnormal returns (the elusive alpha) is discussed in detail by the leading researchers and industry experts. The material in this part also covers potential application of NA to trading and fund management. Part 3 covers the use of quantified news for the purpose of monitoring, early diagnostics and risk control. Part 4 is entirely industry focused; it contains insights of experts from leading technology (content) vendors. It also contains a discussion of technologies and finally a compact directory of content vendor and financial analytics companies in the marketplace of NA. The book draws equally upon the expertise of academics and practitioners who have developed these models and is supported by two major content vendors - RavenPack and Thomson Reuters - leading providers of news analytics software and machine readable news.
The book will appeal to decision makers in the banking, finance and insurance services industry. In particular: asset managers; quantitative fund managers; hedge fund managers; algorithmic traders; proprietary (program) trading desks; sell-side firms; brokerage houses; risk managers and research departments will benefit from the unique insights into this new and pertinent area of financial modelling.
How to Get Rich is different from any other book on the subject because Dennis isn't selling snake oil, investment tips, or motivational claptrap. He merely wants to help people embrace entrepreneurship, and to share lessons he learned the hard way. He reveals, for example, why a regular paycheck is like crack cocaine; why great ideas are vastly overrated; and why "ownership isn't the important thing, it's the only thing."
Includes a CD containing the source code for all examples. It is strongly advised that you experiment with the code by compiling it and extending it to suit your needs. Support is offered via a user forum on www.datasimfinancial.com where you can post queries and communicate with other purchasers of the book.
This book is for those professionals who design and develop models in computational finance. This book assumes that you have a working knowledge of C ++.