The real story of AIDS—how it originated with a virus in a chimpanzee, jumped to one human, and then infected more than 60 million people—is very different from what most of us think we know. Recent research has revealed dark surprises and yielded a radically new scenario of how AIDS began and spread. Excerpted and adapted from the book Spillover, with a new introduction by the author, Quammen's hair-raising investigation tracks the virus from chimp populations in the jungles of southeastern Cameroon to laboratories across the globe, as he unravels the mysteries of when, where, and under what circumstances such a consequential "spillover" can happen. An audacious search for answers amid more than a century of data, The Chimp and the River tells the haunting tale of one of the most devastating pandemics of our time.
"A major work of interpretation of medical and social thought . . . this volume is also to be commended for its skillful, absorbing presentation of the background and the effects of this dread disease."—I.B. Cohen, New York Times
"The Cholera Years is a masterful analysis of the moral and social interest attached to epidemic disease, providing generally applicable insights into how the connections between social change, changes in knowledge and changes in technical practice may be conceived."—Steven Shapin, Times Literary Supplement
"In a way that is all too rarely done, Rosenberg has skillfully interwoven medical, social, and intellectual history to show how medicine and society interacted and changed during the 19th century. The history of medicine here takes its rightful place in the tapestry of human history."—John B. Blake, Science
Over the past fifty years, more than three hundred infectious diseases have either newly emerged or reemerged, appearing in territories where they’ve never been seen before. Ninety percent of epidemiologists expect that one of them will cause a deadly pandemic sometime in the next two generations. It could be Ebola, avian flu, a drug-resistant superbug, or something completely new. While we can’t know which pathogen will cause the next pandemic, by unraveling the story of how pathogens have caused pandemics in the past, we can make predictions about the future. In Pandemic: Tracking Contagions, from Cholera to Ebola and Beyond, the prizewinning journalist Sonia Shah—whose book on malaria, The Fever, was called a “tour-de-force history” (The New York Times) and “revelatory” (The New Republic)—interweaves history, original reportage, and personal narrative to explore the origins of contagions, drawing parallels between cholera, one of history’s most deadly and disruptive pandemic-causing pathogens, and the new diseases that stalk humankind today.
To reveal how a new pandemic might develop, Sonia Shah tracks each stage of cholera’s dramatic journey, from its emergence in the South Asian hinterlands as a harmless microbe to its rapid dispersal across the nineteenth-century world, all the way to its latest beachhead in Haiti. Along the way she reports on the pathogens now following in cholera’s footsteps, from the MRSA bacterium that besieges her own family to the never-before-seen killers coming out of China’s wet markets, the surgical wards of New Delhi, and the suburban backyards of the East Coast.
By delving into the convoluted science, strange politics, and checkered history of one of the world’s deadliest diseases, Pandemic reveals what the next global contagion might look like— and what we can do to prevent it.
· Downloadable data sets
· Library of computer programs in SAS, SPSS, Stata, HLM, MLwiN, and more
· Additional material for data analysis
The Spanish flu of 1918-1920 was one of the greatest human disasters of all time. It infected a third of the people on Earth--from the poorest immigrants of New York City to the king of Spain, Franz Kafka, Mahatma Gandhi and Woodrow Wilson. But despite a death toll of between 50 and 100 million people, it exists in our memory as an afterthought to World War I.
In this gripping narrative history, Laura Spinney traces the overlooked pandemic to reveal how the virus travelled across the globe, exposing mankind's vulnerability and putting our ingenuity to the test. As socially significant as both world wars, the Spanish flu dramatically disrupted--and often permanently altered--global politics, race relations and family structures, while spurring innovation in medicine, religion and the arts. It was partly responsible, Spinney argues, for pushing India to independence, South Africa to apartheid and Switzerland to the brink of civil war. It also created the true "lost generation." Drawing on the latest research in history, virology, epidemiology, psychology and economics, Pale Rider masterfully recounts the little-known catastrophe that forever changed humanity.
Until recently, Zika—once considered a mild disease—was hardly a cause for global panic. But as early as August 2015, doctors in northeast Brazil began to notice a trend: many mothers who had recently experienced symptoms of the Zika virus were giving birth to babies with microcephaly, a serious disorder characterized by unusually small heads and brain damage.
By early 2016, Zika was making headlines as evidence mounted—and eventually confirmed—that microcephaly is caused by the virus, which can be contracted through mosquito bites or sexually transmitted.
The first death on American soil, in February 2016, was confirmed in Puerto Rico in April. The first case of microcephaly in Puerto Rico was confirmed on May 13, 2016. The virus has been known to be transmitted by the Aedes aegypti or Yellow Fever mosquito, but now Aedes albopictus, the Asian Tiger mosquito, has been found to carry it as well, which means it might affect regions as far north as New England and the Great Lakes. Right now, at least 298 million people in the Americas live in areas “conducive to Zika transmission,” according to a recent study. Over the next year, more than 5 million babies will be born.
In Zika: The Emerging Epidemic, Donald G. McNeil Jr. sets the facts straight in a fascinating exploration of Zika’s origins, how it’s spreading, the race for a cure, and what we can do to protect ourselves now.
Treating these topics together takes advantage of all they have in common. The authors point out the many-shared elements in the methods they present for selecting, estimating, checking, and interpreting each of these models. They also show that these regression methods deal with confounding, mediation, and interaction of causal effects in essentially the same way.
The examples, analyzed using Stata, are drawn from the biomedical context but generalize to other areas of application. While a first course in statistics is assumed, a chapter reviewing basic statistical methods is included. Some advanced topics are covered but the presentation remains intuitive. A brief introduction to regression analysis of complex surveys and notes for further reading are provided. For many students and researchers learning to use these methods, this one book may be all they need to conduct and interpret multipredictor regression analyses.
The authors are on the faculty in the Division of Biostatistics, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of California, San Francisco, and are authors or co-authors of more than 200 methodological as well as applied papers in the biological and biomedical sciences. The senior author, Charles E. McCulloch, is head of the Division and author of Generalized Linear Mixed Models (2003), Generalized, Linear, and Mixed Models (2000), and Variance Components (1992).
From the reviews:
"This book provides a unified introduction to the regression methods listed in the title...The methods are well illustrated by data drawn from medical studies...A real strength of this book is the careful discussion of issues common to all of the multipredictor methods covered." Journal of Biopharmaceutical Statistics, 2005
"This book is not just for biostatisticians. It is, in fact, a very good, and relatively nonmathematical, overview of multipredictor regression models. Although the examples are biologically oriented, they are generally easy to understand and follow...I heartily recommend the book" Technometrics, February 2006
"Overall, the text provides an overview of regression methods that is particularly strong in its breadth of coverage and emphasis on insight in place of mathematical detail. As intended, this well-unified approach should appeal to students who learn conceptually and verbally." Journal of the American Statistical Association, March 2006
Unlike natural disasters, whose destruction is concentrated in a limited area over a period of days, and illnesses, which have devastating effects but are limited to individuals and their families, infectious disease has the terrifying power to disrupt everyday life on a global scale, overwhelming public and private resources and bringing trade and transportation to a grinding halt.
In today's world, it's easier than ever to move people, animals, and materials around the planet, but the same advances that make modern infrastructure so efficient have made epidemics and even pandemics nearly inevitable. And as outbreaks of Ebola, MERS, yellow fever, and Zika have demonstrated, we are woefully underprepared to deal with the fallout. So what can -- and must -- we do in order to protect ourselves from mankind's deadliest enemy?
Drawing on the latest medical science, case studies, policy research, and hard-earned epidemiological lessons, Deadliest Enemy explores the resources and programs we need to develop if we are to keep ourselves safe from infectious disease. The authors show how we could wake up to a reality in which many antibiotics no longer cure, bioterror is a certainty, and the threat of a disastrous influenza pandemic looms ever larger. Only by understanding the challenges we face can we prevent the unthinkable from becoming the inevitable.
Deadliest Enemy is high scientific drama, a chronicle of medical mystery and discovery, a reality check, and a practical plan of action.
• A broad perspective traces CAM therapies from their beginnings to present day practices.
• Clinical guidesfor selecting therapies, and new advances for matching the appropriate therapy to the individual patient, enables you to offer and/or recommend individualized patient care.
• Expert contributorsinclude well-known writers such as Kevin Ergil, Patch Adams, Joseph Pizzorno, and Marc Micozzi himself.
• A unique synthesisof information, including historical usage, cultural and social analysis, current basic science theory and research, and a wide range of clinical investigations and observations, makes this text a focused, authoritative resource.
• Suggested readings and referencesin each chapter list the best resources for further research and study.
• Coverage of CAM therapies and systemsincludes those most commonly encountered or growing in popularity, so you can carefully evaluate each treatment.
• An evidence-based approachfocuses on treatments best supported by clinical trials and scientific evidence.
• Observations from mechanisms of action to evidence of clinical efficacyanswers questions of how, why, and when CAM therapies work.
• Global coverageincludes discussions of traditional healing arts from Europe, Asia, Africa, and the Americas.
• NEW! Updated chapters feature new content and topics, including: challenges in integrative medicine, legal issues, CAM in the community, psychometric evaluation, placebo effect, stress management, and much more!
• NEW! Updated guides on common herbal remedies in clinical practice, East and Southeast Asia, and native North and South America deliver the latest information.
• NEW! Revised chapters with new contributors offer fresh perspectives on these important and relevant topics.
• EXPANDED! Basic science content and new theory and research studies cover a wide range of sciences such as biophysics, biology and ecology, ethnomedicine, psychometrics, neurosciences, and systems theory.
• NEW! New and expanded global ethnomedical systems include new content on Shamanism and Neo-Shamanism, Central and North Asia, Southeast Asia, Nepal and Tibet, Hawaii and South Pacific, Alaska and Pacific Northwest, and contemporary global healthcare.
New to This Edition:
*Chapters on the political ecology of health; emerging infectious diseases and landscape genetics; food, diet, and nutrition; and urban health.
*Coverage of Middle East respiratory syndrome, Ebola, and Zika; impacts on health of global climate change; contaminated water crises in economically developed countries, including in Flint, Michigan; China's rapid industrial growth; and other timely topics.
*Updated throughout with current data and concepts plus advances in GIS.
*End-of-chapter review questions and suggestions for further reading.
*Section Introductions that describe each chapter.
*"Quick Reviews"--within-chapter recaps of key concepts.
*Bold-faced key terms and an end-of-book glossary.
In December 2013, a young boy in a tiny West African village contracted the deadly Ebola virus. The virus spread to his relatives, then to neighboring communities, then across international borders. The world’s first urban Ebola outbreak quickly overwhelmed the global health system and threatened to kill millions.
In an increasingly interconnected world in which everyone is one or two flights away from New York or London or Beijing, even a localized epidemic can become a pandemic. Ebola’s spread through West Africa to Nigeria, the United Kingdom and the United States sounded global alarms that the next killer outbreak is right around the corner—and that the world is woefully unprepared to combat a new deadly disease.
From the poorest villages of rural West Africa to the Oval Office itself, this book tells the story of a deadly virus that spun wildly out of control—and reveals the truth about how close the world came to a catastrophic global pandemic.
Includes practical examples from recent trials
Bringing together leading statisticians, scientists, and clinicians from the pharmaceutical industry, academia, and regulatory agencies, Multiple Testing Problems in Pharmaceutical Statistics explores the rapidly growing area of multiple comparison research with an emphasis on pharmaceutical applications. In each chapter, the expert contributors describe important multiplicity problems encountered in pre-clinical and clinical trial settings.
The book begins with a broad introduction from a regulatory perspective to different types of multiplicity problems that commonly arise in confirmatory controlled clinical trials, before giving an overview of the concepts, principles, and procedures of multiple testing. It then presents statistical methods for analyzing clinical dose response studies that compare several dose levels with a control as well as statistical methods for analyzing multiple endpoints in clinical trials. After covering gatekeeping procedures for testing hierarchically ordered hypotheses, the book discusses statistical approaches for the design and analysis of adaptive designs and related confirmatory hypothesis testing problems. The final chapter focuses on the design of pharmacogenomic studies based on established statistical principles. It also describes the analysis of data collected in these studies, taking into account the numerous multiplicity issues that occur.
This volume explains how to solve critical issues in multiple testing encountered in pre-clinical and clinical trial applications. It presents the necessary statistical methodology, along with examples and software code to show how to use the methods in practice.
Christine Murphy has compiled a book that presents the vaccination dilemma from multiple perspectives. It clearly describes the immune system and its workings--and what science does and does not know about them. It offers suggestions and resources for parents whose children are sick, whether from a common childhood illness or from a vaccination reaction. And it makes a case for an alternate view of disease--as a teacher that allows us to develop physically and spiritually, and as a necessary test of strength that we have chosen out of our destiny.
This book will help educate parents about the vaccination dilemma and prepare them to make, in consultation with one or more health professionals, educated vaccination decisions for their children.
This volume provides formulas and procedures for determination of sample size required not only for testing equality, but also for testing non-inferiority/superiority, and equivalence (similarity) based on both untransformed (raw) data and log-transformed data under a parallel-group design or a crossover design with equal or unequal ratio of treatment allocations. It contains a comprehensive and unified presentation of statistical procedures for sample size calculation that are commonly employed at various phases of clinical development. Each chapter includes, whenever possible, real examples of clinical studies from therapeutic areas such as cardiovascular, central nervous system, anti-infective, oncology, and women's health to demonstrate the clinical and statistical concepts, interpretations, and their relationships and interactions.
The book highlights statistical procedures for sample size calculation and justification that are commonly employed in clinical research and development. It provides clear, illustrated explanations of how the derived formulas and/or statistical procedures can be used.
Alfredo Morabia's lucid retelling sheds new light on the historical triumphs of epidemiological research and allows for contemporary readers, patients, and nontechnical audiences to make sense of the immense amount of health information disseminated by the media. By drawing from both historical and contemporary sources, Morabia provides the reader with the tools to differentiate health beliefs from health knowledge. The book covers important topics, including the H1N1 swine flu epidemic, breast cancer, the effects of aspirin, and the link between cigarettes and lung cancer. Enigmas of Health and Disease is a concise narrative helping patients and health providers develop a more informed relationship.
The book discusses the relevant principles needed to understand the theoretical underpinnings of bioinformatic analysis and demonstrates, with examples, targeted analysis using freely available web-based software and publicly available databases. Eschewing non-essential information, the work focuses on principles and hands-on analysis, also pointing to further study options.Avoids non-essential coverage, yet fully describes the field for beginnersExplains the molecular basis of evolution to place bioinformatic analysis in biological contextProvides useful links to the vast resource of publicly available bioinformatic databases and analysis toolsContains over 100 figures that aid in concept discovery and illustration
This book provides much-needed guidance on data analysis using R for the growing number of scientists in hospital departments who are responsible for producing reports, and who may have limited statistical expertise.
This book explores data analysis using R and is aimed at scientists in hospital departments who are responsible for producing reports, and who are involved in improving safety. Professionals working in the healthcare quality and safety community will also find this book of interest
Statistical Methods for Hospital Monitoring with R:Provides functions to perform quality improvement and infection management data analysis. Explores the characteristics of complex systems, such as self-organisation and emergent behaviour, along with their implications for such activities as root-cause analysis and the Pareto principle that seek few key causes of adverse events. Provides a summary of key non-statistical aspects of hospital safety and easy to use functions. Provides R scripts in an accompanying web site enabling analyses to be performed by the reader http://www.wiley.com/go/hospital_monitoring Covers issues that will be of increasing importance in the future, such as, generalised additive models, and complex systems, networks and power laws.
Covers the planning stage of medical studies in detail; several chapters contain details of sample size estimation Illustrates methods of randomisation that might be employed for clinical trials Covers topics that have become of great importance in the 21st century, including Bayesian methods and multiple imputation
Its breadth and depth, coupled with the inclusion of all the SAS code, make this book ideal for practitioners as well as for a graduate class in biostatistics or public health.
Complete data sets, all the SAS code, and complete outputs can be found on an associated website: http://support.sas.com/amsus
While Oleckno provides thorough treatment of the more customary aspects of conventional and modern epidemiology, he also introduces several important design and analytical issues that are only rarely approached in fundamental epidemiology textbooks. Concepts as diverse as competing risks, maturation, futility, and the prevalence and bias effects in the context of screening are just a few examples of the broad range of concepts covered in this text. A comprehensive glossary contains detailed definitions of over 700 terms used throughout the 14 chapters comprising the textbook.
Aspiring public health professionals will appreciate the solid basis they gain from Epidemiology: Concepts and Methods and will want to keep a copy close by as a valuable reference throughout their careers.
“. . . an easy-to read introduction to survival analysis which covers the major concepts and techniques of the subject.” —Statistics in Medical Research
Updated and expanded to reflect the latest developments, Statistical Methods for Survival Data Analysis, Fourth Edition continues to deliver a comprehensive introduction to the most commonly-used methods for analyzing survival data. Authored by a uniquely well-qualified author team, the Fourth Edition is a critically acclaimed guide to statistical methods with applications in clinical trials, epidemiology, areas of business, and the social sciences. The book features many real-world examples to illustrate applications within these various fields, although special consideration is given to the study of survival data in biomedical sciences.
Emphasizing the latest research and providing the most up-to-date information regarding software applications in the field, Statistical Methods for Survival Data Analysis, Fourth Edition also includes:Marginal and random effect models for analyzing correlated censored or uncensored data Multiple types of two-sample and K-sample comparison analysis Updated treatment of parametric methods for regression model fitting with a new focus on accelerated failure time models Expanded coverage of the Cox proportional hazards model Exercises at the end of each chapter to deepen knowledge of the presented material
Statistical Methods for Survival Data Analysis is an ideal text for upper-undergraduate and graduate-level courses on survival data analysis. The book is also an excellent resource for biomedical investigators, statisticians, and epidemiologists, as well as researchers in every field in which the analysis of survival data plays a role.
Modelling Survival Data in Medical Research describes the modelling approach to the analysis of survival data using a wide range of examples from biomedical research.
Well known for its nontechnical style, this third edition contains new chapters on frailty models and their applications, competing risks, non-proportional hazards, and dependent censoring. It also describes techniques for modelling the occurrence of multiple events and event history analysis. Earlier chapters are now expanded to include new material on a number of topics, including measures of predictive ability and flexible parametric models. Many new data sets and examples are included to illustrate how these techniques are used in modelling survival data.
Bibliographic notes and suggestions for further reading are provided at the end of each chapter. Additional data sets to obtain a fuller appreciation of the methodology, or to be used as student exercises, are provided in the appendix. All data sets used in this book are also available in electronic format online.
This book is an invaluable resource for statisticians in the pharmaceutical industry, professionals in medical research institutes, scientists and clinicians who are analyzing their own data, and students taking undergraduate or postgraduate courses in survival analysis.