This paper assesses competitiveness in the case of the Central African Republic, a postconflict country. The paper presents several conventional techniques for assessing competitiveness, namely the real exchange rate and recent trade performance. Several other measures are considered, in particular transport costs and governance measures, which may be more effective in capturing the obstacles to competitiveness posed by the poor security environment and weak institutions common to many post-conflict situations. The real exchange measure and trade measures suggest some mild erosion of competitiveness in recent years, while the other measures indicate that the competitiveness challenges faced by the Central African Republic are much deeper.
This paper uses cointegration analysis to investigate the empirical relationship among money, prices, income, and a vector of interest rates in Uganda from 1982 to 1998. Despite the substantial financial market liberalization that has taken place in the early 1990s, quarterly time-series data confirm that a stable relationship prevailed among real broad money, income, and domestic and foreign interest rates. The empirical results indicate income homogeneity, a strong own-rate-of-return effect, a high degree of international capital mobility and asset substitutability, and demonstrate that both domestic and foreign factors are important determinants of inflation in Uganda.
This paper investigates empirically the sources of aggregate output growth and the determinants of total factor productivity (TFP) in Niger between 1963 and 2003. A growth accounting analysis indicates that the erosion in output per capita over the sample period is due to the negative growth of both TFP and physical capital per capita. Sound macroeconomic policies, supported by official development assistance and structural reforms, are found to be key to raising TFP growth.
A regional convergence pact adopted recently by the Conference of Heads of States of WAEMU provides a framework for fiscal convergence similar to the European Union’s Maastricht Treaty. Using bivariate co-integration and error-correction models, this paper investigates the relationship between revenue and expenditure in seven member countries to determine the feasibility and nature of the policy adjustment required to meet the new convergence criteria. The results indicate that, in the long run, there is causality running from revenue to expenditure in Burkina Faso and Senegal, from expenditure to revenue in Benin and Togo, a bidirectional causality in Côte d’Ivoire and Mali, and no causality in Niger.
This paper applies cointegration analysis and error-correction modeling to investigate the behavior of broad money demand in Cameroon over 1963/64-1993/94. The cointegrated VAR analysis first describes an open-economy model of money, prices, income, and a vector of rates of return, within which three steady state relations are identified: a stable money demand function, an excess aggregate demand relationship, and the uncovered interest rate relation under fixed exchange rates and perfect capital mobility. Empirical support is thereafter provided for both PPP and the international Fisher parity between Cameroon and France, and the stability of the short-run dynamics of the broad money demand function is confirmed.