For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.
And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.
“[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.”
–Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker
Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences.
Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of business–Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives.
New York Times Bestseller
A former Wall Street quant sounds an alarm on the mathematical models that pervade modern life — and threaten to rip apart our social fabric
We live in the age of the algorithm. Increasingly, the decisions that affect our lives—where we go to school, whether we get a car loan, how much we pay for health insurance—are being made not by humans, but by mathematical models. In theory, this should lead to greater fairness: Everyone is judged according to the same rules, and bias is eliminated.
But as Cathy O’Neil reveals in this urgent and necessary book, the opposite is true. The models being used today are opaque, unregulated, and uncontestable, even when they’re wrong. Most troubling, they reinforce discrimination: If a poor student can’t get a loan because a lending model deems him too risky (by virtue of his zip code), he’s then cut off from the kind of education that could pull him out of poverty, and a vicious spiral ensues. Models are propping up the lucky and punishing the downtrodden, creating a “toxic cocktail for democracy.” Welcome to the dark side of Big Data.
Tracing the arc of a person’s life, O’Neil exposes the black box models that shape our future, both as individuals and as a society. These “weapons of math destruction” score teachers and students, sort résumés, grant (or deny) loans, evaluate workers, target voters, set parole, and monitor our health.
O’Neil calls on modelers to take more responsibility for their algorithms and on policy makers to regulate their use. But in the end, it’s up to us to become more savvy about the models that govern our lives. This important book empowers us to ask the tough questions, uncover the truth, and demand change.
— Longlist for National Book Award (Non-Fiction)
— Goodreads, semi-finalist for the 2016 Goodreads Choice Awards (Science and Technology)
— Kirkus, Best Books of 2016
— New York Times, 100 Notable Books of 2016 (Non-Fiction)
— The Guardian, Best Books of 2016
— WBUR's "On Point," Best Books of 2016: Staff Picks
— Boston Globe, Best Books of 2016, Non-Fiction
This book shows you how to validate your initial idea, find the right customers, decide what to build, how to monetize your business, and how to spread the word. Packed with more than thirty case studies and insights from over a hundred business experts, Lean Analytics provides you with hard-won, real-world information no entrepreneur can afford to go without.Understand Lean Startup, analytics fundamentals, and the data-driven mindsetLook at six sample business models and how they map to new ventures of all sizesFind the One Metric That Matters to youLearn how to draw a line in the sand, so you’ll know it’s time to move forwardApply Lean Analytics principles to large enterprises and established products
This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
This extraordinary edition of Lean In, by Sheryl Sandberg, chief operating officer of Facebook and coauthor of Option B, with Adam Grant, includes a letter to graduates from Sandberg and six additional chapters from experts offering advice on finding and getting the most out of a first job; résumé writing; best interviewing practices; negotiating your salary; listening to your inner voice; owning who you are; and leaning in for millennial men.
In 2013, Sheryl Sandberg’s Lean In became a massive cultural phenomenon and its title became an instant catchphrase for empowering women. The book soared to the top of best-seller lists both nationally and internationally, igniting global conversations about women and ambition. This enhanced edition provides the entire text of the original book updated with more recent statistics and features a passionate letter from Sandberg encouraging graduates to find and commit to work they love. A combination of inspiration and practical advice, this new edition will speak directly to graduates and, like the original, change lives.
New Material for the Graduates Edition:
· A Letter to Graduates from Sheryl Sandberg
· Find Your First Job, by Mindy Levy (Levy has more than twenty years of experience in all phases of organizational management and holds degrees from Wharton and Penn)
· Negotiate Your Salary, by Kim Keating (Keating is the founder and managing director of Keating Advisors)
· Man Up: Millennial Men and Equality, by Kunal Modi (Modi is a consultant at McKinsey & Company and a recent graduate of the Harvard Kennedy School and Harvard Business School)
· Let’s Lean In Together, by Rachel Thomas (Thomas is the president of The Sheryl Sandberg & Dave Goldberg Family Foundation)· Own Who You Are, by Mellody Hobson (Hobson is the president of Ariel Investments)
· Listen to Your Inner Voice, by Rachel Simmons (Simmons is cofounder of the Girls Leadership Institute)
· 12 Lean In stories, short essays by readers around the world who have been inspired by Sandberg
“So what are you going to do with your major?”
It’s an innocent question that can haunt students from high school to graduate school and beyond.
Relax. Your major is just the starting point for designing a meaningful future. In this indispensable guide, Dr. Katharine Brooks shows you a creative, fun, and intelligent way to figure out what you want to do and how to get it—no matter what you studied in college. You will learn to map your experiences for insights into your strengths and passions, design possible lives, and create goals destined to take you wherever you want to go. Using techniques and ideas that have guided thousands of college students to successful careers, Dr. Brooks will teach you to outsmart and outperform your competition, with more Wisdom Builders and an easily applied career development process.
No matter what career you aspire to, You Majored in What? offers a practical, creative, and successful approach to finding your path to career fulfillment.
Based on an MBA course Provost has taught at New York University over the past ten years, Data Science for Business provides examples of real-world business problems to illustrate these principles. You’ll not only learn how to improve communication between business stakeholders and data scientists, but also how participate intelligently in your company’s data science projects. You’ll also discover how to think data-analytically, and fully appreciate how data science methods can support business decision-making.Understand how data science fits in your organization—and how you can use it for competitive advantageTreat data as a business asset that requires careful investment if you’re to gain real valueApproach business problems data-analytically, using the data-mining process to gather good data in the most appropriate wayLearn general concepts for actually extracting knowledge from dataApply data science principles when interviewing data science job candidates
Complexity surrounds us. We have too much email, juggle multiple remotes, and hack through thickets of regulations from phone contracts to health plans. But complexity isn’t destiny. Sull and Eisenhardt argue there’s a better way. By developing a few simple yet effective rules, people can best even the most complex problems.
In Simple Rules, Sull and Eisenhardt masterfully challenge how we think about complexity and offer a new lens on how to cope. They take us on a surprising tour of what simple rules are, where they come from, and why they work. The authors illustrate the six kinds o f rules that really matter - for helping artists find creativity and the Federal Reserve set interest rates, for keeping birds on track and Zipcar members organized, and for how insomniacs can sleep and mountain climbers stay safe.
Drawing on rigorous research and riveting stories, the authors ingeniously find insights in unexpected places, from the way Tina Fey codified her experience at Saturday Night Live into rules for producing 30 Rock (rule five: never tell a crazy person he’s crazy) to burglars’ rules for robbery (“avoid houses with a car parked outside”) to Japanese engineers mimicking the rules of slime molds to optimize Tokyo’s rail system. The authors offer fresh information and practical tips on fixing old rules and learning new ones.
Whether you’re struggling with information overload, pursuing opportunities with limited resources, or just trying to change your bad habits, Simple Rules provides powerful insight into how and why simplicity tames complexity.
It used to be that to diagnose an illness, interpret legal documents, analyze foreign policy, or write a newspaper article you needed a human being with specific skills—and maybe an advanced degree or two. These days, high-level tasks are increasingly being handled by algorithms that can do precise work not only with speed but also with nuance. These “bots” started with human programming and logic, but now their reach extends beyond what their creators ever expected.
In this fascinating, frightening book, Christopher Steiner tells the story of how algorithms took over—and shows why the “bot revolution” is about to spill into every aspect of our lives, often silently, without our knowledge.
The May 2010 “Flash Crash” exposed Wall Street’s reliance on trading bots to the tune of a 998-point market drop and $1 trillion in vanished market value. But that was just the beginning. In Automate This, we meet bots that are driving cars, penning haiku, and writing music mistaken for Bach’s. They listen in on our customer service calls and figure out what Iran would do in the event of a nuclear standoff. There are algorithms that can pick out the most cohesive crew of astronauts for a space mission or identify the next Jeremy Lin. Some can even ingest statistics from baseball games and spit out pitch-perfect sports journalism indistinguishable from that produced by humans.
The interaction of man and machine can make our lives easier. But what will the world look like when algorithms control our hospitals, our roads, our culture, and our national security? What happens to businesses when we automate judgment and eliminate human instinct? And what role will be left for doctors, lawyers, writers, truck drivers, and many others?Who knows—maybe there’s a bot learning to do your job this minute.
But Hand is no believer in superstitions, prophecies, or the paranormal. His definition of "miracle" is thoroughly rational. No mystical or supernatural explanation is necessary to understand why someone is lucky enough to win the lottery twice, or is destined to be hit by lightning three times and still survive. All we need, Hand argues, is a firm grounding in a powerful set of laws: the laws of inevitability, of truly large numbers, of selection, of the probability lever, and of near enough.
Together, these constitute Hand's groundbreaking Improbability Principle. And together, they explain why we should not be so surprised to bump into a friend in a foreign country, or to come across the same unfamiliar word four times in one day. Hand wrestles with seemingly less explicable questions as well: what the Bible and Shakespeare have in common, why financial crashes are par for the course, and why lightning does strike the same place (and the same person) twice. Along the way, he teaches us how to use the Improbability Principle in our own lives—including how to cash in at a casino and how to recognize when a medicine is truly effective.
An irresistible adventure into the laws behind "chance" moments and a trusty guide for understanding the world and universe we live in, The Improbability Principle will transform how you think about serendipity and luck, whether it's in the world of business and finance or you're merely sitting in your backyard, tossing a ball into the air and wondering where it will land.
We’re surrounded by fringe theories, fake news, and pseudo-facts. These lies are getting repeated. New York Times bestselling author Daniel Levitin shows how to disarm these socially devastating inventions and get the American mind back on track. Here are the fundamental lessons in critical thinking that we need to know and share now.
Investigating numerical misinformation, Daniel Levitin shows how mishandled statistics and graphs can give a grossly distorted perspective and lead us to terrible decisions. Wordy arguments on the other hand can easily be persuasive as they drift away from the facts in an appealing yet misguided way. The steps we can take to better evaluate news, advertisements, and reports are clearly detailed. Ultimately, Levitin turns to what underlies our ability to determine if something is true or false: the scientific method. He grapples with the limits of what we can and cannot know. Case studies are offered to demonstrate the applications of logical thinking to quite varied settings, spanning courtroom testimony, medical decision making, magic, modern physics, and conspiracy theories.
This urgently needed book enables us to avoid the extremes of passive gullibility and cynical rejection. As Levitin attests: Truth matters. A post-truth era is an era of willful irrationality, reversing all the great advances humankind has made. Euphemisms like “fringe theories,” “extreme views,” “alt truth,” and even “fake news” can literally be dangerous. Let's call lies what they are and catch those making them in the act.
For more than twenty years, The Academic Job Search Handbook has assisted job seekers in all academic disciplines in the search for faculty positions at different kinds of institutions from research-focused universities to community colleges. Current faculty who used the book themselves recommend it to their own students and postdocs. The many new first-person narratives provide insight into issues and situations candidates may encounter such as applying for an international job, combining parenting with an academic career, going from an administrative job to a faculty position, and seeking faculty positions as a same-sex couple.
How can you use Excel and Power BI to gain real insights into your information? As you examine your data, how do you write a formula that provides the numbers you need? The answers to both of these questions lie with the data model. This book introduces the basic techniques for shaping data models in Excel and Power BI. It’s meant for readers who are new to data modeling as well as for experienced data modelers looking for tips from the experts. If you want to use Power BI or Excel to analyze data, the many real-world examples in this book will help you look at your reports in a different way–like experienced data modelers do. As you’ll soon see, with the right data model, the correct answer is always a simple one!
By reading this book, you will:
• Gain an understanding of the basics of data modeling, including tables, relationships, and keys
• Familiarize yourself with star schemas, snowflakes, and common modeling techniques
• Learn the importance of granularity
• Discover how to use multiple fact tables, like sales and purchases, in a complex data model
• Manage calendar-related calculations by using date tables
• Track historical attributes, like previous addresses of customers or manager assignments
• Use snapshots to compute quantity on hand
• Work with multiple currencies in the most efficient way
• Analyze events that have durations, including overlapping durations
• Learn what data model you need to answer your specific business questions
About This Book
• For Excel and Power BI users who want to exploit the full power of their favorite tools
• For BI professionals seeking new ideas for modeling data
So why is it so hard to make sound decisions? In Think Twice, now in paperback, Michael Mauboussin argues that we often fall victim to simplified mental routines that prevent us from coping with the complex realities inherent in important judgment calls. Yet these cognitive errors are preventable.
In this engaging book, Mauboussin shows us how to recognize and avoid common mental missteps. These include misunderstanding cause-and-effect linkages, not considering enough alternative possibilities in making a decision, and relying too much on experts.
Through vivid stories, the author presents memorable rules for avoiding each error and explains how to recognize when you should “think twice”—questioning your reasoning and adopting decision-making strategies that are far more effective, even if they seem counterintuitive. Armed with this awareness, you'll soon begin making sounder judgment calls that benefit (rather than hurt) your organization.
Bassetti, a client, friend, and student of John Magee, one of the original authors, has converted the material on the craft of manual charting with TEKNIPLAT chart paper to modern computer software methods. In actuality, none of Magee’s concepts have proven invalid and some of his work predated modern concepts such as beta and volatility. In addition, Magee described a trend-following procedure that is so simple and so elegant that Bassetti has adapted it to enable the general investor to use it to replace the cranky Dow Theory. This procedure, called the Basing Points procedure, is extensively described in the new Tenth Edition along with new material on powerful moving average systems and Leverage Space Portfolio Model generously contributed by the formidable analyst, Ralph Vince., author of Handbook of Portfolio Mathematics.
See what’s new in the Tenth Edition:
Chapters on replacing Dow Theory Update of Dow Theory Record Deletion of extraneous material on manual charting New chapters on Stops and Basing Points New material on moving average systems New material on Ralph Vince’s Leverage Space Portfolio Model
So much has changed since the first edition, yet so much has remained the same. Everyone wants to know how to play the game. The foundational work of the discipline of technical analysis, this book gives you more than a technical formula for trading and investing, it gives you the knowledge and wisdom to craft long-term success.
Perform powerful data analysis with DAX for Microsoft SQL Server Analysis Services, Excel, and Power BI
Master core DAX concepts, including calculated columns, measures, and error handling Understand evaluation contexts and the CALCULATE and CALCULATETABLE functions Perform time-based calculations: YTD, MTD, previous year, working days, and more Work with expanded tables, complex functions, and elaborate DAX expressions Perform calculations over hierarchies, including parent/child hierarchies Use DAX to express diverse and unusual relationships Measure DAX query performance with SQL Server Profiler and DAX Studio
This is the eBook of the printed book and may not include any media, website access codes, or print supplements that may come packaged with the bound book.
Master business modeling and analysis techniques with Microsoft Excel 2016, and transform data into bottom-line results. Written by award-winning educator Wayne Winston, this hands on, scenario-focused guide helps you use Excel’s newest tools to ask the right questions and get accurate, actionable answers. This edition adds 150+ new problems with solutions, plus a chapter of basic spreadsheet models to make sure you’re fully up to speed.
Solve real business problems with Excel–and build your competitive advantageQuickly transition from Excel basics to sophisticated analytics Summarize data by using PivotTables and Descriptive Statistics Use Excel trend curves, multiple regression, and exponential smoothing Master advanced functions such as OFFSET and INDIRECT Delve into key financial, statistical, and time functions Leverage the new charts in Excel 2016 (including box and whisker and waterfall charts) Make charts more effective by using Power View Tame complex optimizations by using Excel Solver Run Monte Carlo simulations on stock prices and bidding models Work with the AGGREGATE function and table slicers Create PivotTables from data in different worksheets or workbooks Learn about basic probability and Bayes’ Theorem Automate repetitive tasks by using macros
Award-winning college professor and adviser Bill Coplin lays down the essential skills students need to survive and succeed in today’s job market, based on his extensive interviews with employers, recruiters, HR specialists, and employed college grads. Going beyond test scores and GPAs, Coplin teaches students how to maximize their college experience by focusing on ten crucial skill groups: Work Ethic, Physical Performance, Speaking, Writing, Teamwork, Influencing People, Research, Number Crunching, Critical Thinking, and Problem Solving. 10 Things Employers Want You to Learn in College gives students the tools they need to prepare during their undergraduate years to impress potential employers, land a higher-paying job, and start on the road to career security and satisfaction.
Did you know that to make a task seem easier, all you have to do is lean back a little? Or that retail salespeople who mimic the way their customers speak and behave end up selling more?
If you like stats like this, are intrigued by ideas, and find connecting the dots to be a critical part of your skill set—this book is for you.
Culled from Harvard Business Review’s popular newsletter, The Daily Stat, this book offers a compelling look at insights that both amuse and inform. Covering such managerial topics as teams, marketing, workplace psychology, and leadership, you’ll find a wide range of business statistics and general curiosities and oddities about professional life that will add an element of trivia and humor to your learning (and will make you appear smarter than your colleagues).
Highly quotable and surprisingly useful, Stats and Curiosities: From Harvard Business Review will keep you on the front lines of business research—and ahead of the pack at work.
Updated throughout, this edition contains new chapters assessing the current options landscape, discussing margin collateral issues, and introducing Cohen’s exceptionally valuable OVI indicators.
The Bible of Options Strategies, Second Editionis practical from start to finish: modular, easy to navigate, and thoroughly cross-referenced, so you can find what you need fast, and act before your opportunity disappears. Cohen systematically covers every key area of options strategy: income strategies, volatility strategies, sideways market strategies, leveraged strategies, and synthetic strategies.
Even the most complex techniques are explained with unsurpassed clarity – making them accessible to any trader with even modest options experience. More than an incredible value, this is the definitive reference to contemporary options trading: the one book you need by your side whenever you trade. For all options traders with at least some experience.
SSC CGL (Tier -1) Exam Paper 2012
SSC CGL (Tier -1) Exam Paper 2013
SSC CGL (Tier -1) Exam Paper 2014
SSC CGL (Tier -1) Exam Paper 2015
Tags: SSC, CGL, CHSL, Civil Services, SSC PORTAL, Staff Selection Commission.
The Perfect series is a range of practical guides that give clear and straightforward advice on everything from getting your first job to choosing your baby's name. Written by experienced authors offering tried-and-tested tips, each book contains all you need to get it right first time.
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