Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power.
Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention.
Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You’ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you’ve mastered these techniques, you’ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects.
• Learning the Bayesian “state of mind” and its practical implications
• Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference
• Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses
• Building and debugging models with PyMC
• Testing your model’s “goodness of fit”
• Opening the “black box” of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works
• Leveraging the power of the “Law of Large Numbers”
• Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning
• Using loss functions to measure an estimate’s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes
• Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size
• Overcoming the “exploration versus exploitation” dilemma: deciding when “pretty good” is good enough
• Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing
• Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available
Cameron Davidson-Pilon has worked in many areas of applied mathematics, from the evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His contributions to the open source community include lifelines, an implementation of survival analysis in Python. Educated at the University of Waterloo and at the Independent University of Moscow, he currently works with the online commerce leader Shopify.
Cameron Davidson-Pilon has seen many fields of applied mathematics, from evolutionary dynamics of genes and diseases to stochastic modeling of financial prices. His main contributions to the open-source community include Bayesian Methods for Hackers and lifelines. Cameron was raised in Guelph, Ontario, but was educated at the University of Waterloo and Independent University of Moscow. He currently lives in Ottawa, Ontario, working with the online commerce leader Shopify.
If you have an aptitude for mathematics and some programming skills, author Joel Grus will help you get comfortable with the math and statistics at the core of data science, and with hacking skills you need to get started as a data scientist. Today’s messy glut of data holds answers to questions no one’s even thought to ask. This book provides you with the know-how to dig those answers out.Get a crash course in PythonLearn the basics of linear algebra, statistics, and probability—and understand how and when they're used in data scienceCollect, explore, clean, munge, and manipulate dataDive into the fundamentals of machine learningImplement models such as k-nearest Neighbors, Naive Bayes, linear and logistic regression, decision trees, neural networks, and clusteringExplore recommender systems, natural language processing, network analysis, MapReduce, and databases
Bayesian statistical methods are becoming more common and more important, but not many resources are available to help beginners. Based on undergraduate classes taught by author Allen Downey, this book’s computational approach helps you get a solid start.Use your existing programming skills to learn and understand Bayesian statisticsWork with problems involving estimation, prediction, decision analysis, evidence, and hypothesis testingGet started with simple examples, using coins, M&Ms, Dungeons & Dragons dice, paintball, and hockeyLearn computational methods for solving real-world problems, such as interpreting SAT scores, simulating kidney tumors, and modeling the human microbiome.
This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Highlighting both underlying concepts and practicalcomputational skills, Data Mining and Business Analytics withR begins with coverage of standard linear regression and theimportance of parsimony in statistical modeling. The book includesimportant topics such as penalty-based variable selection (LASSO);logistic regression; regression and classification trees;clustering; principal components and partial least squares; and theanalysis of text and network data. In addition, the bookpresents:
• A thorough discussion and extensive demonstration of thetheory behind the most useful data mining tools
• Illustrations of how to use the outlined concepts inreal-world situations
• Readily available additional data sets and related Rcode allowing readers to apply their own analyses to the discussedmaterials
• Numerous exercises to help readers with computing skillsand deepen their understanding of the material
Data Mining and Business Analytics with R is an excellentgraduate-level textbook for courses on data mining and businessanalytics. The book is also a valuable reference for practitionerswho collect and analyze data in the fields of finance, operationsmanagement, marketing, and the information sciences.