Robots Will Steal Your Job, But That's OK: How to Survive the Economic Collapse and Be Happy

Federico Pistono
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You are about to become obsolete. You think you are special, unique, and that whatever it is that you are doing is impossible to replace. You are wrong. As we speak, millions of algorithms created by computer scientists are frantically running on servers all over the world, with one sole purpose: do whatever humans can do, but better.

That is the argument for a phenomenon called technological unemployment, one that is pervading modern society. But is that really the case? Or is it just a futuristic fantasy? What will become of us in the coming years, and what can we do to prevent a catastrophic collapse of society?

Robots Will Steal Your Job, But That's OK: how to survive the economic collapse and be happy explores the impact of technological advances on our lives, what it means to be happy, and provides suggestions on how to avoid a systemic collapse.

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About the author

Federico Pistono is social entrepreneur, computer scientist, award-winning journalist, author, scientific educator, activist, and public speaker. He holds a BSc in Computer Science from the University of Verona, and in 2012 he graduated from Singularity University, NASA Ames Research Park. He's Founder and CEO of the e-learning startup Konoz, and author of the best-selling book "Robots Will Steal Your Job, But That's OK: How to Survive the Economic Collapse and be Happy", which has been featured on the Wall Street Journal, CNBC, The Huffington Post, Russia Today, TEDxTaipei, RAI Italian National TV, as well as many other TV and radio stations around the world.
The book has been praised by people such as Peter Diamandis, Founder and Chairman X PRIZE Foundation and New York Times best-selling author, Vivek Wadhwa (The Economist "Book of the Year”), NASA astronaut Dan Barry, and creator of the Sci-Fi Channel Kay Koplovitz; and it has been translated into Italian, Spanish, and German.
Federico's research has been utilized by major economic institutions, universities, and think tanks, such as the Society for Human Resource Management in collaboration with The Economist Intelligence Unit, and the Future of Work Summit in California, and has been referenced in academic research papers in the fields of Computer Science and Economics.
Since 2012 he's given dozens of lectures on the subject of his book at universities, symposia, and Fortune 500 Companies around the world, including Qualcomm, Telenor, the University of San Paolo, the Nobel Peace Centre, the University of Oslo, the International Education and Resource Network Summit, TEDxVienna, and Singularity University at NASA Ames in California.
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Additional Information

Publisher
Federico Pistono
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Published on
Sep 10, 2014
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Pages
214
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Language
English
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Genres
Business & Economics / Forecasting
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Content Protection
This content is DRM free.
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One of Wall Street Journal's Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in 2012
 
New York Times Bestseller

“Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the Vietnam War…could turn out to be one of the more momentous books of the decade.”
—New York Times Book Review
 
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New Machine for the 21st century."
—Rachel Maddow, author of Drift

"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction—without academic mathematics—cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change and terrorism."
—New York Review of Books

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger—all by the time he was thirty. He solidified his standing as the nation's foremost political forecaster with his near perfect prediction of the 2012 election. Silver is the founder and editor in chief of the website FiveThirtyEight. 
 
Drawing on his own groundbreaking work, Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Most predictions fail, often at great cost to society, because most of us have a poor understanding of probability and uncertainty. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. But overconfidence is often the reason for failure. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too. This is the “prediction paradox”: The more humility we have about our ability to make predictions, the more successful we can be in planning for the future.

In keeping with his own aim to seek truth from data, Silver visits the most successful forecasters in a range of areas, from hurricanes to baseball, from the poker table to the stock market, from Capitol Hill to the NBA. He explains and evaluates how these forecasters think and what bonds they share. What lies behind their success? Are they good—or just lucky? What patterns have they unraveled? And are their forecasts really right? He explores unanticipated commonalities and exposes unexpected juxtapositions. And sometimes, it is not so much how good a prediction is in an absolute sense that matters but how good it is relative to the competition. In other cases, prediction is still a very rudimentary—and dangerous—science.

Silver observes that the most accurate forecasters tend to have a superior command of probability, and they tend to be both humble and hardworking. They distinguish the predictable from the unpredictable, and they notice a thousand little details that lead them closer to the truth. Because of their appreciation of probability, they can distinguish the signal from the noise.

With everything from the health of the global economy to our ability to fight terrorism dependent on the quality of our predictions, Nate Silver’s insights are an essential read.
A New York Times Bestseller
An Economist Best Book of 2015

"The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow."
—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal
 
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?
 
In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters."
 
In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course.

Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.
In 1971, President Nixon imposed national price controls and took the United States off the gold standard, an extreme measure intended to end an ongoing currency war that had destroyed faith in the U.S. dollar. Today we are engaged in a new currency war, and this time the consequences will be far worse than those that confronted Nixon.

 

Currency wars are one of the most destructive and feared outcomes in international economics. At best, they offer the sorry spectacle of countries' stealing growth from their trading partners. At worst, they degenerate into sequential bouts of inflation, recession, retaliation, and sometimes actual violence. Left unchecked, the next currency war could lead to a crisis worse than the panic of 2008.

Currency wars have happened before-twice in the last century alone-and they always end badly. Time and again, paper currencies have collapsed, assets have been frozen, gold has been confiscated, and capital controls have been imposed. And the next crash is overdue. Recent headlines about the debasement of the dollar, bailouts in Greece and Ireland, and Chinese currency manipulation are all indicators of the growing conflict.

As James Rickards argues in Currency Wars, this is more than just a concern for economists and investors. The United States is facing serious threats to its national security, from clandestine gold purchases by China to the hidden agendas of sovereign wealth funds. Greater than any single threat is the very real danger of the collapse of the dollar itself.

Baffling to many observers is the rank failure of economists to foresee or prevent the economic catastrophes of recent years. Not only have their theories failed to prevent calamity, they are making the currency wars worse. The U. S. Federal Reserve has engaged in the greatest gamble in the history of finance, a sustained effort to stimulate the economy by printing money on a trillion-dollar scale. Its solutions present hidden new dangers while resolving none of the current dilemmas.

While the outcome of the new currency war is not yet certain, some version of the worst-case scenario is almost inevitable if U.S. and world economic leaders fail to learn from the mistakes of their predecessors. Rickards untangles the web of failed paradigms, wishful thinking, and arrogance driving current public policy and points the way toward a more informed and effective course of action.




From the Hardcover edition.
China fragments, a new Cold War with Russia, Mexcio challenges U.S., the new great powers Turkey, Poland and Japan.  The Next 100 Years is a fascinating, eye-opening and often shocking look at what lies ahead for the U.S. and the world from one of our most incisive futurists.


In his provocative book, George Friedman turns his eye on the future—offering a lucid, highly readable forecast of the changes we can expect around the world during the twenty-first century. He explains where and why future wars will erupt (and how they will be fought), which nations will gain and lose economic and political power, and how new technologies and cultural trends will alter the way we live in the new century.
The Next 100 Years draws on a fascinating exploration of history and geopolitical patterns dating back hundreds of years. Friedman shows that we are now, for the first time in half a millennium, at the dawn of a new era—with changes in store, including:

• The U.S.-Jihadist war will conclude—replaced by a second full-blown cold war with Russia.
• China will undergo a major extended internal crisis, and Mexico will emerge as an important world power.
• A new global war will unfold toward the middle of the century between the United States and an unexpected coalition from Eastern Europe, Eurasia, and the Far East; but armies will be much smaller and wars will be less deadly.
• Technology will focus on space—both for major military uses and for a dramatic new energy resource that will have radical environmental implications.
• The United States will experience a Golden Age in the second half of the century.

Written with the keen insight and thoughtful analysis that has made George Friedman a renowned expert in geopolitics and forecasting, The Next 100 Years presents a fascinating picture of what lies ahead.

For continual, updated analysis and supplemental material, go to www.Stratfor.com
The instant New York Times bestseller from legendary investment guru Ric Edelman, who presents a prescient personal finance guide on how technology and science will reshape the way we save, invest, and plan for the future.

In The Truth About Your Future, award-winning financial advisor Ric Edelman reveals how technology and science are evolving at a blistering, almost incomprehensible pace—with profound implications for your personal finances. Ric radically upends traditional financial planning, showing that you need not just one financial plan, but three—one for now, one for later and one for much later. He explains: Why you’re likely to live much longer—and the impact on your financial future; how you must alter your plans to shift from the familiar linear lifeline (school-job-retirement-death) to the new cyclical lifeline; the importance of Career Planning—even if you’re in your fifties or sixties; how to invest in tech companies and how to generate income from your investments; why nursing homes are becoming obsolete—and with them, long-term care insurance policies, and what this means for you; how to protect your digital assets; and how you’ll spend your time—and money—in retirement, and why the future will be the happiest time of your life.

The traditional paradigms of how we live, learn, and invest are shifting under our feet. Fortunately, Ric Edelman has seen the future, and in The Truth About Your Future he illustrates how smart investors can adapt and thrive in today’s changing marketplace. Newcomers and loyal Edelman followers alike will find value in his proven advice and trademark humor. This is a must-have guide for anyone serious about successfully adapting to the ever-evolving financial landscape.
Du wirst unnötig werden. Du glaubst, du bist besonders, einzigartig und dass was auch immer es ist, das du tust, unmöglich ersetzt werden kann. Du liegst falsch. Während wir sprechen, laufen Millionen von Algorithmen, die von Computerwissenschaftlern erschaffen wurden, verzweifelt auf Servern überall auf der Welt nur mit einem Ziel: zu tun, was auch immer Menschen tun können, aber besser. Das ist das Argument für ein Phänomen namens technologische Arbeitslosigkeit, eines, das die moderne Gesellschaft durchdringt. Doch ist dies wirklich der Fall? Oder ist es lediglich eine futuristische Fantasie? Was wird in den nächsten Jahren aus uns werden und was können wir tun, um einen katastrophalen Kollaps der Gesellschaft zu verhindern? "Roboter stehlen deinen Job, aber das ist OK: Wie man den Wirtschaftskollaps glücklich überlebt" erforscht den Einfluss technologischen Fortschritts auf unser Leben, was es bedeutet, glücklich zu sein und gibt Vorschläge, um den System-Kollaps zu vermeiden. „Wahrhaft exzellent. Ein sehr wichtiges Werk. Ich habe es geliebt.“ – Peter Diamandis Gründer und Vorstand der X PRIZE Foundation Vorstand der Singularity University New York Times Bestseller-Autor Mitbegründer der Zero-Gravity Corporation „Es war ein Genuss. Exakte Statistiken und gute Ratschläge. Großartige Hinweise am Ende, sehr hilfreich.“ – Dan Barry NASA-Astronaut Mitbegründer von 9th Sense Robotics „WOW – DU BIST BEEINDRUCKEND“ – Michael Smolens Serial Entrepreneur Gründer und Vorstand von Dotsub
 State per diventare obsoleti. Credete di essere speciali, unici e insostituibili in tutto ciò che fate; vi sbagliate. Gli informatici hanno elaborato milioni di algoritmi che anche adesso, mentre parliamo, 'girano' su server sparsi in tutto il mondo, con un solo scopo: fare tutto ciò che gli umani sono in grado di fare, ma meglio. Questi algoritmi sono programmi "intelligenti", che stanno permeando il substrato della nostra società. Sono in grado di prendere decisioni finanziarie, prevedere il meteo, ipotizzare quali Paesi dichiareranno guerra. Presto ci resterà poco da fare: le macchine prenderanno il sopravvento. Suona come una fantasia futuristica? Forse lo è: la comunità di pensatori, scienziati e accademici che vedono nell’avanzamento della tecnologia una forza dirompente, in grado di trasformare di qui a poco, e per sempre, il nostro intero sistema socio-economico, sta crescendo ma è ancora ristretta. Secondo loro, nel corso dei prossimi decenni lo spostamento dei carichi di lavoro verso le macchine e le intelligenze artificiale crescerà drasticamente. Tali cambiamenti saranno così radicali e veloci che il mercato non riuscirà a rispondere con nuove opportunità per chi ha perso il lavoro, rendendo la disoccupazione non solo una fase del ciclo, ma strutturale e cronicamente irreversibile. Sarà la fine del lavoro come lo conosciamo. Come cambierà la società? Che rapporto esiste tra la felicità e il lavoro? Come possiamo evitare un catastrofico collasso economico? Qual è il senso della nostra esistenza e come si fa ad essere felici?
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