Chad: Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Staff Report; Press Release; and Statement by the Executive Director for Chad

International Monetary Fund
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KEY ISSUES Context: Chad is a fragile country with weak institutional capacity that needs to manage volatile and exhaustible oil revenues prudently to tackle its large development needs. Chad is enjoying a period of domestic political stability, but major regional security issues are imposing significant fiscal costs in both the short and medium term. Macroeconomic policy over the last few years has achieved a gradual tightening of the underlying fiscal policy stance together with a sizable increase in public investment. Satisfactory performance under an SMP in 2013 demonstrated the authorities’ commitment to improved macroeconomic management and has set the ground for an upper credit tranche arrangement with the Fund. Policy Framework: The government’s medium-term economic program, anchored by the 2013-2015 National Development Plan (NDP), aims at reinforcing economic growth and making it more inclusive, while maintaining macroeconomic stability and fiscal sustainability. Given the continued heavy dependence on volatile oil revenues that are projected to decline over the long-term and the currently high risk of debt distress, macroeconomic policies target a sustained fiscal adjustment, a buildup of liquidity buffers, and economic diversification. Those objectives will be underpinned by a reform agenda focused on strengthening public financial and debt management and improving the business environment. Request for an Extended Credit Facility arrangement: In the attached letter of intent, the authorities request a three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) in the amount of SDR 79.92 million (120 percent of quota) in support of their medium-term economic program. The ECF arrangement is expected to address the country’s protracted balance of payments’ problems resulting from a trend reduction in oil revenues, maintain adequate international reserves’ coverage, and play a catalytic role for bilateral and multilateral assistance to Chad. The accompanying memorandum of economic and financial policies spells out in more detail the objectives of the program and policy actions that the government of Chad envisages to undertake during 2014–17.
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Additional Information

Publisher
International Monetary Fund
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Published on
Sep 16, 2014
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Pages
94
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ISBN
9781498388610
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Language
English
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Genres
Business & Economics / International / Economics
Business & Economics / Money & Monetary Policy
Political Science / Public Policy / Economic Policy
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In 1971, President Nixon imposed national price controls and took the United States off the gold standard, an extreme measure intended to end an ongoing currency war that had destroyed faith in the U.S. dollar. Today we are engaged in a new currency war, and this time the consequences will be far worse than those that confronted Nixon.

 

Currency wars are one of the most destructive and feared outcomes in international economics. At best, they offer the sorry spectacle of countries' stealing growth from their trading partners. At worst, they degenerate into sequential bouts of inflation, recession, retaliation, and sometimes actual violence. Left unchecked, the next currency war could lead to a crisis worse than the panic of 2008.

Currency wars have happened before-twice in the last century alone-and they always end badly. Time and again, paper currencies have collapsed, assets have been frozen, gold has been confiscated, and capital controls have been imposed. And the next crash is overdue. Recent headlines about the debasement of the dollar, bailouts in Greece and Ireland, and Chinese currency manipulation are all indicators of the growing conflict.

As James Rickards argues in Currency Wars, this is more than just a concern for economists and investors. The United States is facing serious threats to its national security, from clandestine gold purchases by China to the hidden agendas of sovereign wealth funds. Greater than any single threat is the very real danger of the collapse of the dollar itself.

Baffling to many observers is the rank failure of economists to foresee or prevent the economic catastrophes of recent years. Not only have their theories failed to prevent calamity, they are making the currency wars worse. The U. S. Federal Reserve has engaged in the greatest gamble in the history of finance, a sustained effort to stimulate the economy by printing money on a trillion-dollar scale. Its solutions present hidden new dangers while resolving none of the current dilemmas.

While the outcome of the new currency war is not yet certain, some version of the worst-case scenario is almost inevitable if U.S. and world economic leaders fail to learn from the mistakes of their predecessors. Rickards untangles the web of failed paradigms, wishful thinking, and arrogance driving current public policy and points the way toward a more informed and effective course of action.




From the Hardcover edition.
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