The various chapters present and compare new techniques from many areas including data mining, information systems, machine learning, and statistical artificial intelligence. The volume focuses on evaluating their usefulness for problems in computational finance and financial engineering.
Applications — risk management; asset allocation; dynamic trading and hedging; forecasting; trading cost control. Markets — equity; foreign exchange; bond; commodity; derivatives; Approaches — data mining; statistical AI; machine learning; Monte Carlo simulation; bootstrapping; genetic algorithms; nonparametric methods; fuzzy logic.
The chapters emphasizes in-depth and comparative evaluation with established approaches.
Contents:Decision Technologies:Optimization of Trading Systems and Portfolios (J E Moody & L Z Wu)Nonlinear versus Linear Techniques for Selecting Individual Stocks (S Mahfoud et al.)Soft Prediction of Stock Behavior (Y Baram)Risk Management:Validating a Connectionist Model of Financial Diagnosis (P E Pedersen)Neural Networks for Risk Analysis in Stock Price Forecasts (M Klenin)Optimizing Neural Network Classifiers for Bond Rating (A N Skurikhin & A J Surkan)Statistical Learning for Financial Problems:Forecasting Volatility Mispricing (P J Bolland & A N Burgess)Intraday Modeling of the Term Structure of Interest Rates (J T Connor et al.)Modeling of Nonstationary Financial Time Series by Nonparametric Data Selection (G Deco et al.)Foreign Exchange Trading and Analysis:Principal Components Analysis for Modeling Multi-Currency Porfolios (J Utans et al.)Quantization Effects and Cluster Analysis on Foreign Exchange Rates (W M Leung et al.)A Computer Simulation of Currency Market Participantsand other papers
Readership: Practitioners and academics who are interested in developments and applications of data mining to finance.
The author compares the more important methods in terms of their theoretical inter-relationships and their practical merits. He also considers two other general forecasting topics that have been somewhat neglected in the literature: the computation of prediction intervals and the effect of model uncertainty on forecast accuracy.
Although the search for a "best" method continues, it is now well established that no single method will outperform all other methods in all situations-the context is crucial. Time-Series Forecasting provides an outstanding reference source for the more generally applicable methods particularly useful to researchers and practitioners in forecasting in the areas of economics, government, industry, and commerce.