Unraveled: An Evidence-Based Approach to Understanding and Preventing Crime

· Threat Analysis Group, LLC

About this ebook

What cannot be measured, cannot be managed. Despite this axiom, few books in the security industry have tackled the need to truly understand crime. Unraveled: An Evidence-Based Approach to Understanding and Preventing Crime bridges the gap between criminological theories and the practical application of these theories in the real world. Unraveled is applicable to a broad audience of people responsible for making security decisions for one or hundreds of properties.


Unraveled: An Evidence-Based Approach to Understanding and Preventing Crime provides a practical approach to understanding crime and the theories which support crime prevention and security measures. Using research, Unraveled guides security decision makers to a deeper understanding of the unique nature of crime at their properties, summarizes the theories which support crime prevention efforts, and how to objectively analyze security programs. Unraveled discusses crime data sources used in conducting crime analysis and explores ways to organize statistical data and the techniques used in crime analysis such as crime rate analysis, temporal analysis, threshold analysis and more. By explaining the significance of crime statistics relative to crime prevention theory and techniques, Unraveled provides readers with a clear, strategic plan to implement and evaluate crime prevention programs and optimize security programs.

Unraveled: An Evidence-Based Approach to Understanding and Preventing Crime includes an extensive bibliography and 600+ endnotes citing evidence-based research on the following topics:

Definition of Crime Analysis

Units of Analysis

Crime Hot Spots

The importance of Place

Law Enforcement Data Sources

Calls for Service

Offense / Incident Reports

Uniform Crime Report (UCR)

Law Enforcement Data Limitations

Crime Typologies

Victim-Offender Relationships

Violence Escalation

Crime Rates

Temporal Analysis

Spatial Analysis

Crime Thresholds


Modus Operandi Analysis

Crime Harm Index

Environmental Criminology/Crime Science

Problem Analysis Triangle (or new Crime Triangle)

Opportunity Structure and Signatures

Opportunity Theories

Routine Activity Theory

Rational Choice Theory

Crime Pattern Theory

Situational Crime Prevention

Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design

Problem-Oriented Policing

Displacement and Diffusion of Benefits

Instrumental vs. Expressive Violence

Targeted Violent Crimes

Dispute-Related Violent Crimes

Predatory Violence

Limitations Of Violent Crime Prevention Research

About the author

Karim H. Vellani is the President of Threat Analysis Group, LLC, an independent security consulting firm. Karim is Board Certified in Security Management (CPP), a Board-Certified Security Consultant (CSC), and has over 25 years of security management, crime analysis, and forensic security consulting experience. He has a bachelor’s degree in Criminal Justice with a specialization in Law Enforcement and a master’s degree in Criminal Justice Management. He is the author of two other books, Applied Crime Analysis and Strategic Security Management (1st and 2nd editions), and has contributed to many other security-related books and journals. As an Adjunct Professor at the University of Houston - Downtown, Karim taught graduate courses in Security Management and Risk Analysis for the College of Criminal Justice’s Security Management Program. Karim has served on various research teams which conduct evidence-based research on security and crime prevention.

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