Building Resilience to Climate Change in South Caucasus Agriculture

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This book illustrates the World Bank’s commitment to assist countries to respond to the opportunities and challenges posed by climate change. Undertaken in collaborative partnership with policy makers, farmers, civil society, and other stakeholders in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, it provides a much needed response to the call for action by quantifying the impact and identifying key priorities for policies, programs, and investments to reduce the vulnerability of agricultural systems to climate change in the South Caucasus. The study responds to the urgent need for climate adaptation, as highlighted in the World Bank’s “Turn Down the Heat” report. Notably, the South Caucasus is already contending with increasing aridity and more frequent extreme weather events (e.g. severe droughts, floods and hailstorms). It presents practical solutions for a more climate smart agriculture, at the regional, national and agro-ecological zone level in each country. The recommendations offered in this book are a compilation of the results of the three national studies, and highlight the need and potential for regional collaborative action to increase benefits, while also continuing to emphasize the need for an effective response at the national level. The national level results are supported by country reports, which provide more details. This work is but an important beginning. To achieve the goals of climate resilience in the agriculture sector, more work is needed to translate the proposals into reality. The analysis demonstrates that investments in irrigation infrastructure and on-farm technologies have great potential to raise agricultural productivity and improve the climate resilience of the sector. Demand-side agricultural water management will have high short-term payoffs, and these short-term payoffs are complementary to the success of long- term irrigation, drainage and other infrastructure investments. Strengthening the disaster risk management strategies (beyond agricultural measures) are also needed to help mitigate household risks from extreme events, especially for the poorest, who are the most vulnerable.
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Publisher
World Bank Publications
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Published on
May 6, 2014
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Pages
164
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ISBN
9781464802157
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Language
English
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Genres
Business & Economics / Industries / Agribusiness
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Content Protection
This content is DRM free.
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William R. Sutton
Agriculture and climate change are inextricably linked, as agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all sectors. In many countries, such as the four that are examined in this work, the risks of climate change for the agricultural sector are a particularly immediate and important problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. The risks of climate change cannot be effectively dealt with, and the opportunities cannot be effectively exploited, without a clear plan for aligning agricultural policies with climate change, for developing key agricultural institution capabilities, and for making needed infrastructure and on-farm investments. Developing such a plan ideally involves a combination of high-quality quantitative analysis and consultation with key stakeholders, particularly farmers, as well as local agricultural experts. The most effective plans for adapting the sector to climate change will involve both human and physical capital enhancements, but many of these investments can also enhance agricultural productivity right now, under current climate conditions. The experiences of Albania, FYR Macedonia, Moldova, and Uzbekistan, highlighted in this work, show that it is possible to develop a plan to meet these objectives; one that is comprehensive, empirically-driven, and yet consultative and quick to develop. This plan also relies heavily on rigorous modeling that recognizes the importance of temperature, precipitation, and general water availability in forecasting changes to farm output and that considers multiple crop types and also livestock. This work draws on the experience of applying this approach to these four nations in Europe and Central Asia with the ultimate goal to help each country mainstream climate change adaptation into agricultural policies, programs, and investments. It also highlights the projected impacts of climate change on agriculture in these countries through forecast variations in temperature and rainfall patterns so crucial to farming, and as a result, offers a map for navigating the risks and realizing the opportunities.
Raffaello Cervigni
To sustain Africa’s growth, and accelerate the eradication of extreme poverty, investment in infrastructure is fundamental. In 2010, the Africa Infrastructure Country Diagnostic found that to enable Africa to fill its infrastructure gap, some US$ 93 billion per year for the next decade will need to be invested. The Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa (PIDA), endorsed in 2012 by the continent’s Heads of State and Government, lays out an ambitious long-term plan for closing Africa’s infrastructure including trough step increases in hydroelectric power generation and water storage capacity. Much of this investment will support the construction of long-lived infrastructure (e.g. dams, power stations, irrigation canals), which may be vulnerable to changes in climatic patterns, the direction and magnitude of which remain significantly uncertain. Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa 's Infrastructure evaluates -using for the first time a single consistent methodology and the state-of-the-arte climate scenarios-, the impacts of climate change on hydro-power and irrigation expansion plans in Africa’s main rivers basins (Niger, Senegal, Volta, Congo, Nile, Zambezi, Orange); and outlines an approach to reduce climate risks through suitable adjustments to the planning and design process. The book finds that failure to integrate climate change in the planning and design of power and water infrastructure could entail, in scenarios of drying climate conditions, losses of hydropower revenues between 5% and 60% (depending on the basin); and increases in consumer expenditure for energy up to 3 times the corresponding baseline values. In in wet climate scenarios, business-as-usual infrastructure development could lead to foregone revenues in the range of 15% to 130% of the baseline, to the extent that the larger volume of precipitation is not used to expand the production of hydropower. Despite the large uncertainty on whether drier or wetter conditions will prevail in the future in Africa, the book finds that by modifying existing investment plans to explicitly handle the risk of large climate swings, can cut in half or more the cost that would accrue by building infrastructure on the basis of the climate of the past.
Nicolas Ahouissoussi
Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. Azerbaijan is one of the many countries where the majority of the rural population depends on agriculture directly or indirectly for their livelihood. Further, changes in climate and their impacts on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia. The risks associated with climate change therefore pose an immediate and fundamental problem in the country. Adaptation measures now in use in Azerbaijan, largely piecemeal efforts, will be insufficient to prevent impacts on agricultural production over the coming decades. As a result, there is growing interest at country and development partner levels to have a better understanding of the exposure, sensitivities, and impacts of climate change at the farm level, and to develop and prioritize adaptation measures to mitigate the adverse consequences. Beginning in 2009, the World Bank embarked on a program for selected Eastern Europe and Central Asian (ECA) client countries to enhance their ability to mainstream climate change adaptation into agricultural policies, programs, and investments. This multi-stage effort has included activities to raise awareness of the threat, analyze potential impacts and adaptation responses, and build capacity among client country stakeholders and ECA Bank staff with respect to climate change and the agricultural sector. This study, Reducing the Vulnerability of Azerbaijan s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change, is the culmination of efforts by the Azerbaijani institutions and researchers, the World Bank, and a team of international experts to jointly undertake an analytical study to address potential impacts climate change may have on Azerbaijan s agricultural sector, but, more importantly, to develop a list of prioritized measures to adapt to those impacts. Specifically, this study provides a menu of options for climate change adaptation in the agricultural and water resources sectors, along with specific recommended actions that are tailored to distinct agricultural regions within Azerbaijan. These recommendations reflect the results of three inter-related activities, conducted jointly by the expert team and local partners: 1) quantitative economic modeling of baseline conditions and the effects of certain adaptation options; 2) qualitative analysis conducted by the expert team of agronomists, crop modelers, and water resource experts; and 3) input from a series of participatory workshops for farmers in each of the agricultural regions. Reducing the Vulnerability of Azerbaijan s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change is part of the World Bank Studies series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank s ongoing research and to stimulate public discussion. The study is one of three produced under the World Bank program Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in European and Central Asian Agricultural Systems. The other countries included in this series are Armenia and Georgia. World Bank Studies are available individually or on standing order. This World Bank Studies series is also available online through the World Bank e-library (www.worldbank.org/elibrary).
William R. Sutton
Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. In many countries, such as in Uzbekistan, the risks of climate change are an immediate and fundamental problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. The risks of climate change to agriculture in Uzbekistan cannot be effectively dealt with and the opportunities cannot be effectively exploited without a clear plan for aligning agricultural policies with climate change, developing the capabilities of key agricultural institutions, and making needed investments in infrastructure, support services and on-farm improvements. Developing such a plan ideally involves a combination of high-quality quantitative analysis, consultation with key stakeholders, particularly farmers and local agricultural experts, and investments in both human and physical capital. The experience of Uzbekistan, highlighted in this work, shows that it is possible to develop a plan to meet these objectives one that is comprehensive and empirically driven as well as consultative and quick to develop. The approach of this study is predicated on strong country ownership and participation, and is defined by its emphasis on win-win or no regrets solutions to the multiple challenges posed by climate change for farmers in Uzbekistan. The solutions are measures that increase resilience to future climate change, boost current productivity despite the greater climate variability already occurring, and limit greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing The Vulnerability of Uzbekistan's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options applies this approach to Uzbekistan with the goal of helping the country mainstream climate change adaptation into its agricultural policies, programs, and investments. The study projects impacts of climate change on agriculture across Uzbekistan s three agro-ecological areas through forecast variations in temperature and rainfall patterns so crucial to farming. It offers a map for navigating the risks and realizing the opportunities, outlined through a series of consultations with local farmers. A detailed explanation of the approach is provided for those who would like to implement similar programs in other countries of Europe, Central Asia, or anywhere else in the world. This is one of four country studies that were produced under the World Bank s program, Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in European and Central Asian Agricultural Systems . The other countries included in this series are Albania, FYR Macedonia, and Moldova. The results from the four studies are consolidated in the book Looking Beyond the Horizon: How Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Responses Will Reshape Agriculture in Eastern Europe and Central Asia website.
Nicolas Ahouissoussi
Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. Georgia is one of the many countries where the majority of the rural population depends on agriculture directly or indirectly for their livelihood. Further, changes in climate and their impacts on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia. The risks associated with climate change therefore pose an immediate and fundamental problem in the country. Adaptation measures now in use in Georgia, largely piecemeal efforts, will be insufficient to prevent impacts on agricultural production over the coming decades. As a result, there is growing interest at country and development partner levels to have a better understanding of the exposure, sensitivities, and impacts of climate change at the farm level, and to develop and prioritize adaptation measures to mitigate the adverse consequences. Beginning in 2009, the World Bank embarked on a program for selected Eastern Europe and Central Asian (ECA) client countries to enhance their ability to mainstream climate change adaptation into agricultural policies, programs, and investments. This multi-stage effort has included activities to raise awareness of the threat, analyze potential impacts and adaptation responses, and build capacity among client country stakeholders and ECA Bank staff with respect to climate change and the agricultural sector. This study, Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change, is the culmination of efforts by the Georgian institutions and researchers, the World Bank, and a team of international experts jointly undertake an analytical study to address potential impacts climate change may have on Georgia s agricultural sector, but, more importantly, to develop a list of prioritized measures to adapt to those impacts. Specifically, this study provides a menu of options for climate change adaptation in the agricultural and water resources sectors, along with specific recommended actions that are tailored to distinct agricultural regions within Georgia. These recommendations reflect the results of three inter-related activities, conducted jointly by the expert team and local partners: 1) quantitative economic modeling of baseline conditions and the effects of certain adaptation options; 2) qualitative analysis conducted by the expert team of agronomists, crop modelers, and water resource experts; and 3) input from a series of participatory workshops for farmers in each of the agricultural regions. Reducing the Vulnerability of Georgia s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change is part of the World Bank Studies series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank s ongoing research and to stimulate public discussion. The study is one of three produced under the World Bank program Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in European and Central Asian Agricultural Systems. The other countries included in this series are Armenia and Azerbaijan. World Bank Studies are available individually or on standing order. This World Bank Studies series is also available online through the World Bank e-library (www.worldbank.org/elibrary).
Nicolas Ahouissoussi
Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. Azerbaijan is one of the many countries where the majority of the rural population depends on agriculture directly or indirectly for their livelihood. Further, changes in climate and their impacts on agricultural systems and rural economies are already evident throughout Europe and Central Asia. The risks associated with climate change therefore pose an immediate and fundamental problem in the country. Adaptation measures now in use in Azerbaijan, largely piecemeal efforts, will be insufficient to prevent impacts on agricultural production over the coming decades. As a result, there is growing interest at country and development partner levels to have a better understanding of the exposure, sensitivities, and impacts of climate change at the farm level, and to develop and prioritize adaptation measures to mitigate the adverse consequences. Beginning in 2009, the World Bank embarked on a program for selected Eastern Europe and Central Asian (ECA) client countries to enhance their ability to mainstream climate change adaptation into agricultural policies, programs, and investments. This multi-stage effort has included activities to raise awareness of the threat, analyze potential impacts and adaptation responses, and build capacity among client country stakeholders and ECA Bank staff with respect to climate change and the agricultural sector. This study, Reducing the Vulnerability of Azerbaijan s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change, is the culmination of efforts by the Azerbaijani institutions and researchers, the World Bank, and a team of international experts to jointly undertake an analytical study to address potential impacts climate change may have on Azerbaijan s agricultural sector, but, more importantly, to develop a list of prioritized measures to adapt to those impacts. Specifically, this study provides a menu of options for climate change adaptation in the agricultural and water resources sectors, along with specific recommended actions that are tailored to distinct agricultural regions within Azerbaijan. These recommendations reflect the results of three inter-related activities, conducted jointly by the expert team and local partners: 1) quantitative economic modeling of baseline conditions and the effects of certain adaptation options; 2) qualitative analysis conducted by the expert team of agronomists, crop modelers, and water resource experts; and 3) input from a series of participatory workshops for farmers in each of the agricultural regions. Reducing the Vulnerability of Azerbaijan s Agricultural Systems to Climate Change is part of the World Bank Studies series. These papers are published to communicate the results of the Bank s ongoing research and to stimulate public discussion. The study is one of three produced under the World Bank program Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in European and Central Asian Agricultural Systems. The other countries included in this series are Armenia and Georgia. World Bank Studies are available individually or on standing order. This World Bank Studies series is also available online through the World Bank e-library (www.worldbank.org/elibrary).
William R. Sutton
Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. In many countries, such as in FYR Macedonia, the risks of climate change are an immediate and fundamental problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. The risks of climate change to agriculture in FYR Macedonia cannot be effectively dealt with and the opportunities cannot be effectively exploited without a clear plan for aligning agricultural policies with climate change, developing the capabilities of key agricultural institutions, and making needed investments in infrastructure, support services and on-farm improvements. Developing such a plan ideally involves a combination of high-quality quantitative analysis, consultation with key stakeholders, particularly farmers and local agricultural experts, and investments in both human and physical capital. The experience of FYR Macedonia, highlighted in this work, shows that it is possible to develop a plan to meet these objectives one that is comprehensive and empirically driven as well as consultative and quick to develop. The approach of this study is predicated on strong country ownership and participation, and is defined by its emphasis on win-win or no regrets solutions to the multiple challenges posed by climate change for farmers in FYR Macedonia. The solutions are measures that increase resilience to future climate change, boost current productivity despite the greater climate variability already occurring, and limit greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing The Vulnerability of FYR Macedonia's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options applies this approach to the FYR Macedonia with the goal of helping the country mainstream climate change adaptation into its agricultural policies, programs, and investments. The study projects impacts of climate change on agriculture across FYR Macedonia s three agro-ecological areas through forecast variations in temperature and rainfall patterns so crucial to farming. It offers a map for navigating the risks and realizing the opportunities, outlined through a series of consultations with local farmers. A detailed explanation of the approach is provided for those who would like to implement similar programs in other countries of Europe, Central Asia, or anywhere else in the world. This is one of four country studies that were produced under the World Bank s program, Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in European and Central Asian Agricultural Systems . The other countries included in this series are Albania, Moldova, and Uzbekistan. The results from the four studies are consolidated in the book Looking Beyond the Horizon: How Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Responses Will Reshape Agriculture in Eastern Europe and Central Asia website.
William R. Sutton
Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. In many countries, such as in Uzbekistan, the risks of climate change are an immediate and fundamental problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. The risks of climate change to agriculture in Uzbekistan cannot be effectively dealt with and the opportunities cannot be effectively exploited without a clear plan for aligning agricultural policies with climate change, developing the capabilities of key agricultural institutions, and making needed investments in infrastructure, support services and on-farm improvements. Developing such a plan ideally involves a combination of high-quality quantitative analysis, consultation with key stakeholders, particularly farmers and local agricultural experts, and investments in both human and physical capital. The experience of Uzbekistan, highlighted in this work, shows that it is possible to develop a plan to meet these objectives one that is comprehensive and empirically driven as well as consultative and quick to develop. The approach of this study is predicated on strong country ownership and participation, and is defined by its emphasis on win-win or no regrets solutions to the multiple challenges posed by climate change for farmers in Uzbekistan. The solutions are measures that increase resilience to future climate change, boost current productivity despite the greater climate variability already occurring, and limit greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing The Vulnerability of Uzbekistan's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options applies this approach to Uzbekistan with the goal of helping the country mainstream climate change adaptation into its agricultural policies, programs, and investments. The study projects impacts of climate change on agriculture across Uzbekistan s three agro-ecological areas through forecast variations in temperature and rainfall patterns so crucial to farming. It offers a map for navigating the risks and realizing the opportunities, outlined through a series of consultations with local farmers. A detailed explanation of the approach is provided for those who would like to implement similar programs in other countries of Europe, Central Asia, or anywhere else in the world. This is one of four country studies that were produced under the World Bank s program, Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in European and Central Asian Agricultural Systems . The other countries included in this series are Albania, FYR Macedonia, and Moldova. The results from the four studies are consolidated in the book Looking Beyond the Horizon: How Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Responses Will Reshape Agriculture in Eastern Europe and Central Asia website.
William R. Sutton
Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. In many countries, such as in Moldova, the risks of climate change are an immediate and fundamental problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. The risks of climate change to agriculture in Moldova cannot be effectively dealt with and the opportunities cannot be effectively exploited without a clear plan for aligning agricultural policies with climate change, developing the capabilities of key agricultural institutions, and making needed investments in infrastructure, support services and on-farm improvements. Developing such a plan ideally involves a combination of high-quality quantitative analysis, consultation with key stakeholders, particularly farmers and local agricultural experts, and investments in both human and physical capital. The experience of Moldova, highlighted in this work, shows that it is possible to develop a plan to meet these objectives one that is comprehensive and empirically driven as well as consultative and quick to develop. The approach of this study is predicated on strong country ownership and participation, and is defined by its emphasis on win-win or no regrets solutions to the multiple challenges posed by climate change for farmers in Moldova. The solutions are measures that increase resilience to future climate change, boost current productivity despite the greater climate variability already occurring, and limit greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing The Vulnerability of Moldova's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options applies this approach to Moldova with the goal of helping the country mainstream climate change adaptation into its agricultural policies, programs, and investments. The study projects impacts of climate change on agriculture across Moldova s three agro-ecological areas through forecast variations in temperature and rainfall patterns so crucial to farming. It offers a map for navigating the risks and realizing the opportunities, outlined through a series of consultations with local farmers. A detailed explanation of the approach is provided for those who would like to implement similar programs in other countries of Europe, Central Asia, or anywhere else in the world. This is one of four country studies that were produced under the World Bank s program, Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in European and Central Asian Agricultural Systems . The other countries included in this series are Albania, FYR Macedonia, and Uzbekistan. The results from the four studies are consolidated in the book Looking Beyond the Horizon: How Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Responses Will Reshape Agriculture in Eastern Europe and Central Asia website..
William R. Sutton
Agriculture is one of the most climate-sensitive of all economic sectors. In many countries, such as in Albania, the risks of climate change are an immediate and fundamental problem because the majority of the rural population depends either directly or indirectly on agriculture for their livelihoods. The risks of climate change to agriculture in Alabania cannot be effectively dealt with and the opportunities cannot be effectively exploited without a clear plan for aligning agricultural policies with climate change, developing the capabilities of key agricultural institutions, and making needed investments in infrastructure, support services and on-farm improvements. Developing such a plan ideally involves a combination of high-quality quantitative analysis, consultation with key stakeholders, particularly farmers and local agricultural experts, and investments in both human and physical capital. The experience of Albania, highlighted in this work, shows that it is possible to develop a plan to meet these objectives one that is comprehensive and empirically driven as well as consultative and quick to develop. The approach of this study is predicated on strong country ownership and participation, and is defined by its emphasis on win-win or no regrets solutions to the multiple challenges posed by climate change for farmers in Albania. The solutions are measures that increase resilience to future climate change, boost current productivity despite the greater climate variability already occurring, and limit greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing The Vulnerability of Albania's Agricultural Systems to Climate Change: Impact Assessment and Adaptation Options applies this approach to Albania with the goal of helping the country mainstream climate change adaptation into its agricultural policies, programs, and investments. The study projects impacts of climate change on agriculture across Albania s three agro-ecological areas through forecast variations in temperature and rainfall patterns so crucial to farming. It offers a map for navigating the risks and realizing the opportunities, outlined through a series of consultations with local farmers. A detailed explanation of the approach is provided for those who would like to implement similar programs in other countries of Europe, Central Asia, or anywhere else in the world. This is one of four country studies that were produced under the World Bank s program, Reducing Vulnerability to Climate Change in European and Central Asian Agricultural Systems . The other countries included in this series are FYR Macedonia, Moldova, and Uzbekistan. The results from the four studies are consolidated in the book Looking Beyond the Horizon: How Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Responses Will Reshape Agriculture in Eastern Europe and Central Asia website.
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