The Trans-Pacific Partnership and Asia-Pacific Integration: A Quantitative Assessment

Peterson Institute
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While global trade negotiations remain stalled, two tracks of trade negotiations in the Asia-Pacific--the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement and a parallel Asian track--could generate momentum for renewed liberalization and provide pathways to region-wide free trade. This book investigates what these trade negotiations could mean to the world economy. Petri, Plummer, and Zhai estimate that world income would rise by $295 billion per year on the TPP track, by $766 billion if both tracks are successful, and by $1.9 trillion if the tracks ultimately combine to yield region-wide free trade. They find that the tracks are competitive initially but their strategic implications appear to be constructive: the agreements would generate incentives for enlargement and mutual progress and, over time, for region-wide consolidation. The authors conclude that the crucial importance of Asia-Pacific integration argues for an early conclusion of the TPP negotiations, but without jeopardizing the prospects for region-wide or even global agreements based on it in the future.
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About the author

Peter A. Petri, visiting fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, is the Carl J. Shapiro Professor of International Finance in the International Business School of Brandeis University and a senior fellow of the East-West Center. From 1994 to 2006, he served as the founding dean of the International Business School. He has held appointments as visiting scholar or professor at the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Keio University, and Fudan University, and as Fulbright Research Scholar and Brookings Policy Fellow. He has consulted for the Asian Development Bank, the Asian Development Bank Institute, the World Bank, the OECD, the United Nations, and the governments of the United States and other countries. He is active in US-Asia affairs and is a member of the Board of the US Asia Pacific Council, the International Advisory Group of the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC) Trade Policy Forum, and the International Steering Committee of the Pacific Trade and Development Conference Series (PAFTAD).

Michael G. Plummer is the Eni Professor of International Economics at Johns Hopkins University, SAIS Bologna. He is also editor-in-chief of the Journal of Asian Economics and (nonresident) senior fellow at the East-West Center. He was head of the Development Division of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (2010-12), the associate professor of economics at Brandeis University, and director of its MA programs at the International Business School. He was also a Fulbright Chair in Economics; Pew Fellow in International Affairs, Harvard University; research professor at Kobe University; and visiting fellow at ISEAS, the University of Auckland, and Doshisha University. Plummer has worked on numerous projects for international organizations, development and other government agencies, and regional development banks, including the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the Association for Southeast Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat, and the ADB Institute.

Fan Zhai is managing director and head of the asset allocation and strategy research department of the China Investment Corporation (CIC). He is responsible for overall asset allocation strategy and portfolio management of CIC's overseas investment. He also oversees macroeconomic research and market analysis to support strategic asset allocation and tactical investment views. Before he joined CIC in November 2009, he was research fellow at the Asian Development Bank in Manila. He has also worked at the Ministry of Finance and the Development research Center of the State Council in China.
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Additional Information

Peterson Institute
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Published on
Dec 1, 2012
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Business & Economics / International / Economics
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The recovery of the Asia-Pacific region from the global economic crisis of 2008_2009 is underway but incomplete. Risks range from slow growth and persistent unemployment to re-emerging international imbalances and financial volatility. While early policy responses to the crisis were successful in avoiding a larger calamity, new policy strategies are now needed to resolve imbalances among the United States, China, and other economies, and to build robust demand in the medium term.
This report, drafted by an international team of experts for the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC), provides a policy framework for completing the recovery and achieving sustained growth beyond it. The report identifies priorities for replacing stimulus programmes with structural reforms, and for launching new growth engines to drive investment and employment throughout the Asia-Pacific region.
Led by Professor Peter Petri (Brandeis University/East-West Center), the team included eminent scholars from China, Japan, the United States and other countries. The report presents a regional strategy as well as separate, detailed analyses of the challenges facing China, Advanced Asia, Southeast Asia, North America, and South America. It concludes that inclusive, balanced, sustained growth in the region is feasible, but will require structural reforms that change economic relationships within economies and among them, and substantial international cooperation in implementing coherent national policies.
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