A First Course in Bayesian Statistical Methods

Springer Science & Business Media
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  1. A self-contained introduction to probability, exchangeability and Bayes’ rule provides a theoretical understanding of the applied material.

  2. Numerous examples with R-code that can be run "as-is" allow the reader to perform the data analyses themselves.

  3. The development of Monte Carlo and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods in the context of data analysis examples provides motivation for these computational methods.

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Additional Information

Publisher
Springer Science & Business Media
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Published on
Jun 2, 2009
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Pages
272
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ISBN
9780387924076
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Best For
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Language
English
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Genres
Business & Economics / Econometrics
Business & Economics / Operations Research
Computers / Mathematical & Statistical Software
Mathematics / Discrete Mathematics
Mathematics / Probability & Statistics / General
Mathematics / Probability & Statistics / Stochastic Processes
Social Science / Methodology
Social Science / Research
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Content Protection
This content is DRM protected.
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On Halloween night 1938, Orson Welles broadcast a radio adaptation of the H. G. Wells fantasy, The War of the Worlds. What listeners heard sounded so realistic that at least a million were frightened by word that "strange creatures" from Mars had landed in central New Jersey and were "unleashing a deadly assault." Several thousand were so terrified they ran into the streets, drove away in their cars, or called the police for information about how to escape. Why did so many panic when the circumstances reported were so improbable? That is just the question Hadley Cantril, then a young social psychologist, set out to answer.

Originally published in 1940, The Invasion from Mars remains a classic. The broadcast provided a unique real-life opportunity to explore why the relatively new medium of radio could have such an effect. Using a mix of research methods, Cantril shows that the impact of the broadcast had less to do with what went out over the air than with the "standards of judgment" people did or did not use in evaluating what they were hearing. This book is of continuing value to those interested in communications and mass behavior.

"One of the most fascinating, illuminating and provocative social documents that have been brought to public attention for some time."--New York Times Book Review, April 28, 1940

"The dramatic account brings into sharp focus those factors in the situation and from the individuals conducive to critical appraisal or contagious panic behavior."--Muzafer Sherif, 1966

Hadley Cantril (1906-1969) was chairman of the Institute for International Social Research. Earlier he founded the Office of Public Opinion Research and was Stuart Professor of Psychology at Princeton University. He was author of nineteen books and monitored public opinion for the executive branch during World War II. Albert H. Cantril, son of Hadley Cantril, is an independent public opinion analyst. Among his books are Reading Mixed Signals: Ambivalence in American Public Opinion about Government (with Susan Davis Cantril). He also worked on the White House staff during the Johnson administration and later served in the Bureaus of East Asian and Pacific Affairs and Public Affairs of the Department of State.
Book 732
This accessible new edition explores the major topics in Monte Carlo simulation

Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Second Edition reflects the latest developments in the field and presents a fully updated and comprehensive account of the major topics that have emerged in Monte Carlo simulation since the publication of the classic First Edition over twenty-five years ago. While maintaining its accessible and intuitive approach, this revised edition features a wealth of up-to-date information that facilitates a deeper understanding of problem solving across a wide array of subject areas, such as engineering, statistics, computer science, mathematics, and the physical and life sciences.

The book begins with a modernized introduction that addresses the basic concepts of probability, Markov processes, and convex optimization. Subsequent chapters discuss the dramatic changes that have occurred in the field of the Monte Carlo method, with coverage of many modern topics including:

Markov Chain Monte Carlo

Variance reduction techniques such as the transform likelihood ratio method and the screening method

The score function method for sensitivity analysis

The stochastic approximation method and the stochastic counter-part method for Monte Carlo optimization

The cross-entropy method to rare events estimation and combinatorial optimization

Application of Monte Carlo techniques for counting problems, with an emphasis on the parametric minimum cross-entropy method

An extensive range of exercises is provided at the end of each chapter, with more difficult sections and exercises marked accordingly for advanced readers. A generous sampling of applied examples is positioned throughout the book, emphasizing various areas of application, and a detailed appendix presents an introduction to exponential families, a discussion of the computational complexity of stochastic programming problems, and sample MATLAB® programs.

Requiring only a basic, introductory knowledge of probability and statistics, Simulation and the Monte Carlo Method, Second Edition is an excellent text for upper-undergraduate and beginning graduate courses in simulation and Monte Carlo techniques. The book also serves as a valuable reference for professionals who would like to achieve a more formal understanding of the Monte Carlo method.

 

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