Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes

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From President Bill Clinton's recommended reading list

Publishers Weekly Bestseller

Warnings is the story of the future of national security, threatening technologies, the U.S. economy, and possibly the fate of civilization.

In Greek mythology Cassandra foresaw calamities, but was cursed by the gods to be ignored. Modern-day Cassandras clearly predicted the disasters of Katrina, Fukushima, the Great Recession, the rise of ISIS, and many more. Like the mythological Cassandra, they were ignored. There are others right now warning of impending disasters, but how do we know which warnings are likely to be right?

 Through riveting explorations in a variety of fields, the authors—both accomplished CEOs and White House National Security Council veterans—discover a method to separate the accurate Cassandras from the crazy doomsayers. They then investigate the experts who today are warning of future disasters: the threats from artificial intelligence, bio-hacking, mutating viruses, and more, and whose calls are not being heeded. Clarke’s and Eddy’s penetrating insights are essential for any person, any business, or any government that doesn’t want to be a blind victim of tomorrow’s catastrophe.

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About the author

Richard A. Clarke, a veteran of thirty years in national security and over a decade in the White House, is now the CEO of a cyber-security consulting firm. He is the author of seven previous books, including the bestsellers Against All Enemies and Cyber War.

R.P. Eddy, is the CEO of Ergo, one of the world's leading intelligence firms. His multi-decade career in national security includes serving as Director at the White House National Security Council, as a senior US and UN diplomat, and he current advises intelligence agencies, major corporations and investors. He resides in Greenwich, Connecticut.     

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Published on
May 23, 2017
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Business & Economics / Decision-Making & Problem Solving
Political Science / Intelligence & Espionage
Political Science / Security (National & International)
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This content is DRM protected.
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Eligible for Family Library

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"The [Bush] administration has squandered the opportunity to eliminate al Qaeda....A new al Qaeda has emerged and is growing stronger, in part because of our own actions and inactions. It is in many ways a tougher opponent than the original threat we faced before September 11, and we are not doing what is necessary to make America safe from that threat."
No one has more authority to make that claim than Richard Clarke, the former counterterrorism czar for both Bill Clinton and George W. Bush. The one person who knows more about Usama bin Laden and al Qaeda than anyone else in this country, he has devoted two decades of his professional life to combating terrorism. Richard Clarke served seven presidents and worked inside the White House for George H.W. Bush, Bill Clinton, and George W. Bush until he resigned in March 2003. He knows, better than anyone, the hidden successes and failures of the Clinton years. He knows, better than anyone, why we failed to prevent 9/11. He knows, better than anyone, how President Bush reacted to the attack and what happened behind the scenes in the days that followed. He knows whether or not Iraq presented a terrorist threat to the United States and whether there were hidden costs to the invasion of that country.
Most disturbing of all are Clarke's revelations about the Bush administration's lack of interest in al Qaeda prior to September 11. From the moment the Bush team took office and decided to retain Clarke in his post as the counterterrorism czar, Clarke tried to persuade them to take al Qaeda as seriously as had Bill Clinton. For months, he was denied the opportunity even to make his case to Bush. He encountered key officials who gave the impression that they had never heard of al Qaeda; who focused incessantly on Iraq; who even advocated long-discredited conspiracy theories about Saddam's involvement in previous attacks on the United States.
Clarke was the nation's crisis manager on 9/11, running the Situation Room -- a scene described here for the first time -- and then watched in dismay at what followed. After ignoring existing plans to attack al Qaeda when he first took office, George Bush made disastrous decisions when he finally did pay attention. Coming from a man known as one of the hard-liners against terrorists, Against All Enemies is both a powerful history of our two-decades-long confrontation with terrorism and a searing indictment of the current administration.
Inspired by the Simple Sabotage Field Manual released by the Office of Strategic Services in 1944 to train European resistors, this is the essential handbook to help stamp out unintentional sabotage in any working group, from major corporations to volunteer PTA committees.

In 1944, the Office of Strategic Services (OSS)—the predecessor of today’s CIA—issued the Simple Sabotage Field Manual that detailed sabotage techniques designed to demoralize the enemy. One section focused on eight incredibly subtle—and devastatingly destructive—tactics for sabotaging the decision-making processes of organizations. While the manual was written decades ago, these sabotage tactics thrive undetected in organizations today:

Insist on doing everything through channels. Make speeches. Talk as frequently as possible and at great length. Refer all matters to committees. Bring up irrelevant issues as frequently as possible. Haggle over precise wordings of communications. Refer back to matters already decided upon and attempt to question the advisability of that decision. Advocate caution and urge fellow-conferees to avoid haste that might result in embarrassments or difficulties later on. Be worried about the propriety of any decision.

Everyone has been faced with someone who has used these tactics, even when they have meant well. Filled with proven strategies and techniques, this brief, clever book outlines the counter-sabotage measures to detect and reduce the impact of these eight classic sabotage tactics to improve productivity, spur creativity, and engender better collegial relationships.

The shocking truth about the government’s secret plans to survive a catastrophic attack on US soil—even if the rest of us die—is “a frightening eye-opener” (Kirkus Reviews) that spans the dawn of the nuclear age to today, and "contains everything one could possibly want to know" (The Wall Street Journal).

Every day in Washington, DC, the blue-and-gold first Helicopter Squadron, codenamed “MUSSEL,” flies over the Potomac River. As obvious as the Presidential motorcade, most people assume the squadron is a travel perk for VIPs. They’re only half right: while the helicopters do provide transport, the unit exists to evacuate high-ranking officials in the event of a terrorist or nuclear attack on the capital. In the event of an attack, select officials would be whisked by helicopters to a ring of secret bunkers around Washington, even as ordinary citizens were left to fend for themselves.

“In exploring the incredible lengths (and depths) that successive administrations have gone to in planning for the aftermath of a nuclear assault, Graff deftly weaves a tale of secrecy and paranoia” (The New York Times Book Review) with details "that read like they've been ripped from the pages of a pulp spy novel" (Vice). For more than sixty years, the US government has been developing secret Doomsday strategies to protect itself, and the multibillion-dollar Continuity of Government (COG) program takes numerous forms—from its potential to evacuate the Liberty Bell from Philadelphia to the plans to launch nuclear missiles from a Boeing-747 jet flying high over Nebraska. Garrett M. Graff sheds light on the inner workings of the 650-acre compound, called Raven Rock, just miles from Camp David, as well as dozens of other bunkers the government built for its top leaders during the Cold War, from the White House lawn to Cheyenne Mountain in Colorado to Palm Beach, Florida, and the secret plans that would have kicked in after a Cold War nuclear attack to round up foreigners and dissidents and nationalize industries. Equal parts a presidential, military, and cultural history, Raven Rock tracks the evolution of the government plan and the threats of global war from the dawn of the nuclear era through the War on Terror.
* Tradução do livro “Cyber War: the next threat to national security and what to do about it”. Copyright © 2010 HarperCollins.

A Brasport e a Clavis trazem para o Brasil a tradução do livro "CYBER WAR - THE NEXT THREAT TO NATIONAL SECURITY AND WHAT TO DO ABOUT IT", uma das poucas obras já escritas com foco em guerra cibernética, sendo, certamente, o principal texto internacional introdutório sobre o assunto disponível.

Richard A. Clarke advertiu anteriormente os EUA sobre os estragos que o terrorismo causaria na segurança – e ele estava certo. Agora ele nos avisa sobre outra ameaça, silenciosa, mas igualmente perigosa. Guerra Cibernética é um livro completo sobre tecnologia, governo e estratégia militar; sobre criminosos, espiões, soldados e hackers. O livro explica claramente e de forma convincente o que é guerra cibernética, como ela funciona e como somos vulneráveis como nação e cidadãos em uma vasta e ameaçadora rede de criminosos cibernéticos. Este é o primeiro livro sobre a guerra do futuro – a guerra cibernética – e é um argumento convincente de que já podemos estar perdendo.

No livro, o autor apresenta um panorama surpreendente defendendo que o uso de armas cibernéticas deve ser uma questão concreta a ser considerada nas ações de Defesa Nacional. Como se sabe, computadores - e dispositivos computacionais - controlam boa parte das atuais infraestruturas civis e militares, incluindo sistemas críticos para o bem estar da sociedade e sistemas que suportam a adequada condução de ações militares. Ao usar armas computacionais que causam impacto em tais sistemas, o "inimigo da nação" pode comprometer o bom andamento de ações militares - ofensivas ou defensivas - e pode, ainda, imprimir ações que causem grande impacto na população civil e no funcionamento da sociedade. 

Clarke mostra que ações desse tipo, envolvendo o uso de computadores e o ataque a sistemas computacionais, já vêm sendo empregadas em iniciativas caracterizadas como "ações de Estado", tanto em tempos de paz, quanto no campo de batalha. Dessa forma, é fundamental, ao mesmo tempo, entender as implicações diplomáticas desse novo tipo de arma, e estabelecer limites quanto a sua utilização - para defesa, e para ataque.

A tradução deste clássico internacional no Brasil contou com apoio formal de renomadas instituições de pesquisa e apoio à inovação no Brasil, com destaque para FINEP, CNPq e FAPERJ. Na edição brasileira, o livro conta com um artigo especial que aborda o tema "Segurança Ofensiva: um aliado no caminho para a defesa cibernética". O artigo, escrito pelos tradutores da versão nacional, tem por objetivo apresentar ao grande público essa ferramenta fundamental no estabelecimento de diagnósticos precisos de Segurança da Informação e de Sistemas Computacionais. 

Best seller do New York Times.

“Um retrato angustiante – e persuasivo – da ameaça cibernética a que estão expostos os Estados Unidos nos dias atuais.” – Michiko Kakutani, New York Times

“Guerra Cibernética pode ser o livro mais importante sobre política de segurança dos últimos anos.” – Fred Kaplan, Slate

“Surpreendente.” – Misha Glenny, Financial Times

“Clarke e Knake estão certos de soar o alarme.” – Glenn Harlan Reynolds, Wall Street Journal

“Prescrições urgentes de política em uma forma esclarecedora, ocasionalmente fascinantes, contos da frente de guerra.” – Jeff Stein, Washington Post

“Uma ótima introdução deste problema esotérico, porém gravíssimo, de segurança nacional, e cidadãos devem lê-lo.” – Jack Goldsmith, New Republic 

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