Spatial Microsimulation with R

CRC Press
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Generate and Analyze Multi-Level Data
Spatial microsimulation involves the generation, analysis, and modeling of individual-level data allocated to geographical zones. Spatial Microsimulation with R is the first practical book to illustrate this approach in a modern statistical programming language.

Get Insight into Complex Behaviors
The book progresses from the principles underlying population synthesis toward more complex issues such as household allocation and using the results of spatial microsimulation for agent-based modeling. This equips you with the skills needed to apply the techniques to real-world situations. The book demonstrates methods for population synthesis by combining individual and geographically aggregated datasets using the recent R packages ipfp and mipfp. This approach represents the "best of both worlds" in terms of spatial resolution and person-level detail, overcoming issues of data confidentiality and reproducibility.

Implement the Methods on Your Own Data
Full of reproducible examples using code and data, the book is suitable for students and applied researchers in health, economics, transport, geography, and other fields that require individual-level data allocated to small geographic zones. By explaining how to use tools for modeling phenomena that vary over space, the book enhances your knowledge of complex systems and empowers you to provide evidence-based policy guidance.

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About the author

Robin Lovelace is a University Academic Fellow at the University of Leeds specializing in methods of spatial data analysis and applied transport modeling. Creator of the stplanr package and a number of popular tutorials, he is an experienced R user, teacher, and developer. Robin uses open source software daily for spatial analysis, map making, statistics, and modeling. His current research focuses on online interactive mapping and modeling to provide the evidence base needed for a transition away from fossil fuels in the transport sector.

Morgane Dumont is an applied mathematician currently undertaking a PhD at the University of Namur. She has a wealth of experience programming in R, Python, C, Fortran, and MATLAB®. Her research focuses on forecasting the health needs of the elderly in 2030 for Belgium. To achieve this aim, Morgane is developing a synthetic population for Belgium as an input to an agent-based model.

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Additional Information

Publisher
CRC Press
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Published on
Apr 21, 2016
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Pages
260
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ISBN
9781498711562
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Best For
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Language
English
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Genres
Business & Economics / Statistics
Mathematics / Probability & Statistics / General
Science / Earth Sciences / General
Science / Earth Sciences / Geology
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Content Protection
This content is DRM protected.
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Eligible for Family Library

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In 1963, the same year that the Beatles went on their first American tour, Castro went to Moscow, Bonecrusher Blackwell beat Ox Bunyan to become the American Wrestling League champion, was the year a stardust storm hit Fountain Square.

Harry J Hoople, retired chemist, shop owner, Auschwitz survivor and keeper of an ancient wish machine, wondered if the stardust would bring something good...or something very, very bad.

When Harry saw the green station wagon with Kentucky license plates roll by, he braced himself, because he knew this meant the something had arrived.

Eleven year-old Will saw the station wagon too. He hoped it meant there were new kids moving into Fountain Square. Will was right. The station wagon carried the Avery family, including a strange kid named Mott and his beautiful older sister named Selma.

Mott and Will and their two friends Dallas and Kevin, soon embark on a summer filled with magic wishes and un-intended consequences. From finding hidden treasure to witnessing a murder, to receiving an enchanted bean brought all the way from Bombay, the boys face a lot of problems.

Selma falls into some problems too. She must decide if she wants to marry into a life of privilege or run away to New York with her true love. Like Will’s father says, Selma is playing with fire.

Only Hoople and his wish machine could help. But Hoople gives out wishes sparingly. Would he grant the boys one more chance to make things right?

Stardust can do peculiar things to a neighborhood.

“Brilliant, funny . . . the best math teacher you never had.”—San Francisco Chronicle Once considered tedious, the field of statistics is rapidly evolving into a discipline Hal Varian, chief economist at Google, has actually called “sexy.” From batting averages and political polls to game shows and medical research, the real-world application of statistics continues to grow by leaps and bounds. How can we catch schools that cheat on standardized tests? How does Netflix know which movies you’ll like? What is causing the rising incidence of autism? As best-selling author Charles Wheelan shows us in Naked Statistics, the right data and a few well-chosen statistical tools can help us answer these questions and more.

For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.

And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.

Fooled by Randomness is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.

Fooled by Randomness is the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about business and the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb–veteran trader, renowned risk expert, polymathic scholar, erudite raconteur, and New York Times bestselling author of The Black Swan–has written a modern classic that turns on its head what we believe about luck and skill.

This book is about luck–or more precisely, about how we perceive and deal with luck in life and business. Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of trading–Fooled by Randomness provides captivating insight into one of the least understood factors in all our lives. Writing in an entertaining narrative style, the author tackles major intellectual issues related to the underestimation of the influence of happenstance on our lives.

The book is populated with an array of characters, some of whom have grasped, in their own way, the significance of chance: the baseball legend Yogi Berra; the philosopher of knowledge Karl Popper; the ancient world’s wisest man, Solon; the modern financier George Soros; and the Greek voyager Odysseus. We also meet the fictional Nero, who seems to understand the role of randomness in his professional life but falls victim to his own superstitious foolishness.

However, the most recognizable character of all remains unnamed–the lucky fool who happens to be in the right place at the right time–he embodies the “survival of the least fit.” Such individuals attract devoted followers who believe in their guru’s insights and methods. But no one can replicate what is obtained by chance.

Are we capable of distinguishing the fortunate charlatan from the genuine visionary? Must we always try to uncover nonexistent messages in random events? It may be impossible to guard ourselves against the vagaries of the goddess Fortuna, but after reading Fooled by Randomness we can be a little better prepared.

PRAISE FOR FOOLED BY RANDOMNESS:

Named by Fortune One of the Smartest Books of All Time

A Financial Times Best Business Book of the Year

“[Fooled by Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-five theses were to the Catholic Church.”
–Malcolm Gladwell, author of Blink

“The book that rolled down Wall Street like a hand grenade.”
–Maggie Mahar, author of Bull! A History of the Boom, 1982—1999

“Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you.”
–Peter L. Bernstein, author of Capital Ideas Evolving

“Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould.”
–Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play: How the World’s Best Companies Simulate to Innovate

“We need a book like this. . . . Fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded.”
–Robert J. Shiller, author of Irrational Exuberance

“Powerful . . . loaded with crackling little insights [and] extreme brilliance.”
–National Review
Longlisted for the National Book Award
New York Times Bestseller

A former Wall Street quant sounds an alarm on the mathematical models that pervade modern life — and threaten to rip apart our social fabric

We live in the age of the algorithm. Increasingly, the decisions that affect our lives—where we go to school, whether we get a car loan, how much we pay for health insurance—are being made not by humans, but by mathematical models. In theory, this should lead to greater fairness: Everyone is judged according to the same rules, and bias is eliminated.

But as Cathy O’Neil reveals in this urgent and necessary book, the opposite is true. The models being used today are opaque, unregulated, and uncontestable, even when they’re wrong. Most troubling, they reinforce discrimination: If a poor student can’t get a loan because a lending model deems him too risky (by virtue of his zip code), he’s then cut off from the kind of education that could pull him out of poverty, and a vicious spiral ensues. Models are propping up the lucky and punishing the downtrodden, creating a “toxic cocktail for democracy.” Welcome to the dark side of Big Data.

Tracing the arc of a person’s life, O’Neil exposes the black box models that shape our future, both as individuals and as a society. These “weapons of math destruction” score teachers and students, sort résumés, grant (or deny) loans, evaluate workers, target voters, set parole, and monitor our health.

O’Neil calls on modelers to take more responsibility for their algorithms and on policy makers to regulate their use. But in the end, it’s up to us to become more savvy about the models that govern our lives. This important book empowers us to ask the tough questions, uncover the truth, and demand change.

— Longlist for National Book Award (Non-Fiction)
— Goodreads, semi-finalist for the 2016 Goodreads Choice Awards (Science and Technology)
— Kirkus, Best Books of 2016
— New York Times, 100 Notable Books of 2016 (Non-Fiction)
— The Guardian, Best Books of 2016
— WBUR's "On Point," Best Books of 2016: Staff Picks
— Boston Globe, Best Books of 2016, Non-Fiction
In 1963, the same year that the Beatles went on their first American tour, Castro went to Moscow, Bonecrusher Blackwell beat Ox Bunyan to become the American Wrestling League champion, was the year a stardust storm hit Fountain Square.

Harry J Hoople, retired chemist, shop owner, Auschwitz survivor and keeper of an ancient wish machine, wondered if the stardust would bring something good...or something very, very bad.

When Harry saw the green station wagon with Kentucky license plates roll by, he braced himself, because he knew this meant the something had arrived.

Eleven year-old Will saw the station wagon too. He hoped it meant there were new kids moving into Fountain Square. Will was right. The station wagon carried the Avery family, including a strange kid named Mott and his beautiful older sister named Selma.

Mott and Will and their two friends Dallas and Kevin, soon embark on a summer filled with magic wishes and un-intended consequences. From finding hidden treasure to witnessing a murder, to receiving an enchanted bean brought all the way from Bombay, the boys face a lot of problems.

Selma falls into some problems too. She must decide if she wants to marry into a life of privilege or run away to New York with her true love. Like Will’s father says, Selma is playing with fire.

Only Hoople and his wish machine could help. But Hoople gives out wishes sparingly. Would he grant the boys one more chance to make things right?

Stardust can do peculiar things to a neighborhood.

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