This report examines some of the pressures on the federal budget that are likely to develop over the next 75 years. It is based on a 10-year baseline projections of July 2000. This document contains no recommendations. Graphs and tables.
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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) regularly evaluates the quality of its economic forecasts by comparing them with the economy's actual performance and with forecasts by the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus (an average of about 50 private-sector forecasts). CBO's forecasts generally have been comparable in quality with those of the Administration and the Blue Chip consensus. When CBO's projections have proved inaccurate by large margins, the errors have tended to reflect difficulties shared by other forecasters.
This report evaluates CBO's macroeconomic forecast over two-year and five-year horizons. The periods used for the evaluations differ by variable and by forecast horizon, depending on the availability of the needed data. Additionally, sprinkled throughout this report are graphic representations of the data for comparisons versus Actual Growth and forecasted values by the CBO.
Key figures included in this report include the following: Petroleum Prices and Consumer Price Inflation Forecasts by CBO and Revisions to Values for Real Gross Domestic Product Labor Productivity and Hours Growth in Real Output - 2-year Forecasts Growth in National Output - 2 year Forecasts Inflation Consumer Price Index - 2 year Forecasts Difference Between Inflation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Inflation in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Price Index -2 year Forecasts GDP Price Index -5 year Forecasts Growth in Wages and Salaries - 5 year Forecasts Related products: Additional Congressional Budget Reports and Economic Analyses can be found here:https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/budget-economy/congressional-budget-reports-economic-analyses
Our Budget & Economy resources collection can be found here: https://bookstore.gpo.gov/catalog/budget-economy Inflation in Consumer Price Index - 5 year Forests
Contents: (1) The Congressional Budget Office¿s (CBO) Estimate of the President¿s Budget: Results of CBO¿s Analysis; Differences Between CBO¿s and the Administration¿s Budget Estimates; CBO¿s Baseline Budget Projections; (2) The Economy Under the President¿s Budget and Under CBO¿s Baseline Policy Assumptions: How the Government¿s Fiscal Policies Can Affect the Economy; How the President¿s Budgetary Proposals Would Affect the Economy; Economic Models and Results; (3) The Potential Economic Effects of Selected Proposals in the President¿s 2011 Budget; (4) The Models Used to Analyze the Supply-Side Macroeconomic Effects of the President¿s Budgetary Proposals. Charts and tables.
Contents: the economic outlook (the state of the economy; past mistakes and future risks); the budget outlook (outlook for the deficit or surplus; debt and deficit); the revenue outlook (risks to the revenue estimates); the spending outlook (discretionary spending). Appendices include: the economy's effect on the budget, budget resolution targets and actual outcomes, 1980-1997; the Federal sector of the national income and product accounts, historical budget data, Medicare projections, Medicaid and the state children's health insurance program, and projections of national health expenditures. Charts and tables.
This is a print on demand edition of a hard to find publication. Contents: (1) The Budget Outlook: The Budget Deficit, Revenues, and Outlays in 2010; Baseline Budget Projections for 2011 to 2020; Budgetary Effects of Alternative Policy Actions; The Long-Term Budget Outlook; (2) The Economic Outlook: Factors Affecting the Pace of the Recovery; Labor Markets through 2014; Inflation Through 2014; Some Uncertainties in the Short-Term Economic Outlook; Output, Employment, and Inflation from 2015 Through 2020; Income from 2010 Through 2020; Comparison with the January 2010 Forecast; Comparison with Other Forecasts; (3) Changes in the Baseline Since March 2010; (4) A Comparison of various Baselines. Charts and tables.
"This Congressional Budget Office (CBO) publication provides additional information about long-term projections of the Social Security program's finances that were included in The long-term budget outlook (June 2010, revised August 2010) and in Social security policy (July 2010). Those projections, which cover the 75-year period spanning 2010 to 2084, and the additional information presented in this document update projections CBO prepared last year and reported in CBO's Long-term projections for social security : 2009 update." --Preface.
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