Advances in Decision Analysis: From Foundations to Applications

Cambridge University Press
Free sample

Decision analysis is a prescriptive theory that aids individuals or groups confronted with complex problems in a wide variety of contexts. By framing issues, identifying risks, eliciting stakeholder preferences, and suggesting alternative approaches, decision analysts can offer workable solutions in domains such as the environment, health and medicine, engineering and operations research, and public policy. This book is a mixture of historical and forward-looking essays on key topics in decision analysis. Part I covers the history and foundations of decision analysis. Part II discusses structuring decision problems, including the development of objectives and their attributes, and influence diagrams. Part III discusses probabilities and their elicitation and Bayes nets. Part IV discusses additive and multiplicative utilities, risk preferences, and 'option pricing' methods. Part V discusses risk analysis. Part VI puts decision analysis in a behavioral and organizational context. Part VII presents case studies of applications.
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About the author

Ward Edwards (1927-2005) received his Ph.D. in Psychology from Harvard University. He was the recipient of many awards including the Frank P. Ramsey Award from the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS in 1988 and the Distinguished Scientific Contributions Award in Applied Psychology from the American Psychological Association in 1996. He wrote more than one hundred journal articles and books including Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research and Utility Theories: Measurement and Applications.

Ralph F. Miles, Jr., received his Ph.D. in Physics from the California Institute of Technology and is a consultant in risk and decision analysis. He was the editor and coauthor of Systems Concepts and has written many articles. Until 1991, he worked as an engineer, supervisor, and manager in the Jet Propulsion Laboratory at the California Institute of Technology.

Detlof von Winterfeldt is Professor and Deputy Dean of the School of Policy, Planning, and Development at the University of Southern California. He is also Director of the Homeland Security Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorist Events at USC. He received his Ph.D. in Psychology from the University of Michigan. He cowrote Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research with Ward Edwards.

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Additional Information

Publisher
Cambridge University Press
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Published on
Jul 23, 2007
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Pages
641
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ISBN
9781139466127
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Best For
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Language
English
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Genres
Business & Economics / Decision-Making & Problem Solving
Mathematics / Game Theory
Psychology / Applied Psychology
Psychology / General
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Content Protection
This content is DRM protected.
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The Oxford Handbook of Organizational Decision Making comprehensively surveys theory and research on organizational decision-making, broadly conceived. Emphasizing psychological perspectives, while encompassing the insights of economics, political science, and sociology, it provides coverage at the individual, group, organizational, and inter-organizational levels of analysis. In-depth case studies illustrate the practical implications of the work surveyed. Each chapter is authored by one or more leading scholars, thus ensuring that this Handbook is an authoritative reference work for academics, researchers, advanced students, and reflective practitioners concerned with decision-making in the areas of Management, Psychology, and HRM. Contributors: Eric Abrahamson, Julia Balogun, Michael L. Barnett, Philippe Baumard, Nicole Bourque, Laure Cabantous, Prithviraj Chattopadhyay, Kevin Daniels, Jerker Denrell, Vinit M. Desai, Giovanni Dosi, Roger L.M. Dunbar, Stephen M. Fiore, Mark A. Fuller, Michael Shayne Gary, Elizabeth George, Jean-Pascal Gond, Paul Goodwin, Terri L. Griffith, Mark P. Healey, Gerard P. Hodgkinson, Gerry Johnson, Michael Johnson-Cramer, Alfred Kieser, Ann Langley, Eleanor T. Lewis, Dan Lovallo, Rebecca Lyons, Peter M. Madsen, A. John Maule, John M. Mezias, Nigel Nicholson, Gregory B. Northcraft, David Oliver, Annie Pye, Karlene H. Roberts, Jacques Rojot, Michael A. Rosen, Isabelle Royer, Eugene Sadler-Smith, Eduardo Salas, Kristyn A. Scott, Zur Shapira, Carolyne Smart, Gerald F. Smith, Emma Soane, Paul R. Sparrow, William H. Starbuck, Matt Statler, Kathleen M. Sutcliffe, Michal Tamuz, Teri Jane Ursacki-Bryant, Ilan Vertinsky, Bénédicte Vidaillet, Jane Webster, Karl E. Weick, Benjamin Wellstein, George Wright, Kuo Frank Yu, and David Zweig.
The human brain has some capabilities that the brains of other animals lack. It is to these distinctive capabilities that our species owes its dominant position. Other animals have stronger muscles or sharper claws, but we have cleverer brains. If machine brains one day come to surpass human brains in general intelligence, then this new superintelligence could become very powerful. As the fate of the gorillas now depends more on us humans than on the gorillas themselves, so the fate of our species then would come to depend on the actions of the machine superintelligence. But we have one advantage: we get to make the first move. Will it be possible to construct a seed AI or otherwise to engineer initial conditions so as to make an intelligence explosion survivable? How could one achieve a controlled detonation? To get closer to an answer to this question, we must make our way through a fascinating landscape of topics and considerations. Read the book and learn about oracles, genies, singletons; about boxing methods, tripwires, and mind crime; about humanity's cosmic endowment and differential technological development; indirect normativity, instrumental convergence, whole brain emulation and technology couplings; Malthusian economics and dystopian evolution; artificial intelligence, and biological cognitive enhancement, and collective intelligence. This profoundly ambitious and original book picks its way carefully through a vast tract of forbiddingly difficult intellectual terrain. Yet the writing is so lucid that it somehow makes it all seem easy. After an utterly engrossing journey that takes us to the frontiers of thinking about the human condition and the future of intelligent life, we find in Nick Bostrom's work nothing less than a reconceptualization of the essential task of our time.
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