Complexity, Endogenous Money and Macroeconomic Theory: Essays in Honour of Basil J. Moore

Edward Elgar Publishing
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That the chapters in the volume cover such a wide range of important, often fundamental, topics is a proper tribute to Basil Moore s influence and contributions over his working life. From the foreword by G.C. Harcourt, Jesus College, Cambridge, UK During
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Publisher
Edward Elgar Publishing
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Published on
Jan 1, 2006
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Pages
448
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ISBN
9781847203113
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Language
English
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Content Protection
This content is DRM protected.
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Eligible for Family Library

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That macroeconomic theory and macroeconometrics are, in the near future and more than ever, indispensable tools in the study of economics is no longer a very cont- versial statement. It is now generally agreed that economic theory, combined with historical, statistical and mathematical methods are necessary at the theoretical level, to formulate problems precisely, to draw conclusions from postulates and to gain - sight into workings of complicated processes, and at the applied level, to measure variables, to estimate parameters and to organise the elaborate calculations involved in reaching empirical results. This book is an illustration of the Editors belief in this principle. It offers new insights in macroeconomic analysis. It deals with both theory and empirical results related to the dynamics within the structure of macroeconomic variables as well as between them. More precisely?ve axes are distinguished. There are theoretical and applied works with developments on (1) mechanisms of economic dynamics, (2) structures of macroeconomic variables, and (3) relationships between macroeconomic time series. The book also presents methodologies where (4) linear testing is improved and (5) new non-linear techniques are applied. Turning to the individual contributions now. Benassy’ ́ s chapter studies the propagation of macroeconomic shocks using a - namic model with wage and price staggering. He?nds evidence in favour of a p- sistent response of both output and in?ation to monetary shocks.
Econometric Business Cycle Research deals with econometric business cycle research (EBCR), a term introduced by the Nobel-laureate Jan Tinbergen for his econometric method of testing (economic) business cycle theories. EBCR combines economic theory and measurement in the study of business cycles, i.e., ups and downs in overall economic activity. We assess four methods of EBCR: business cycle indicators, simultaneous equations models, vector autoregressive systems and real business indicators. After a sketch of the history of the methods, we investigate whether the methods meet the goals of EBCR: the three traditional ones, description, forecasting and policy evaluation, and the one Tinbergen introduced, the implementation|testing of business cycles. The first three EBCR methods are illustrated for the Netherlands, a typical example of a small, open economy.
The main conclusion of the book is that simultaneous equation models are the best vehicle for EBCR, if all its goals are to be attained simultaneously. This conclusion is based on a fairly detailed assessment of the methods and is not over-turned in the empirical illustrations. The main conclusion does not imply the end of other EBCR methods. Not all goals have to be met with a single vehicle, other methods might serve the purpose equally well - or even better. For example, if one is interested in business cycle forecasts, one might prefer a business cycle indicator or vector autoregressive system.
A second conclusion is that many ideas/concepts that play an important role in current discussions about econometric methodology in general and EBCR in particular, were put forward in the 1930s and 1940s.
A third conclusion is that it is difficult, if not impossible, to compare the outcomes of RBC models to outcomes of the other three methods, because RBC modellers are not interested in modelling business cycles on an observation-per-observation basis. A more general conclusion in this respect is that methods should adopt the same concept of business cycles to make them comparable.
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