The articles track the exciting course of Lo and MacKinlay's research on the predictability of stock prices from their early work on rejecting random walks in short-horizon returns to their analysis of long-term memory in stock market prices. A particular highlight is their now-famous inquiry into the pitfalls of "data-snooping biases" that have arisen from the widespread use of the same historical databases for discovering anomalies and developing seemingly profitable investment strategies. This book invites scholars to reconsider the Random Walk Hypothesis, and, by carefully documenting the presence of predictable components in the stock market, also directs investment professionals toward superior long-term investment returns through disciplined active investment management.
Growth or value? How to make the right stock choices for your portfolio.
It’s a question as old as the market: “Should I invest in growth or value stocks?” Growth is like an action flick: all thrills and big explosions. It’s exciting, it’s heady, and you don’t know what’s coming next. Value is like a documentary: steadier, calmer, more reasoned. Definitely not as exciting, but maybe more rewarding in the long run.
This Element is an excerpt from The ETF Trend Following Playbook: Profiting from Trends in Bull or Bear Markets with Exchange Traded Funds (ISBN: 9780137029013) by Tom Lydon. Available in print and digital formats.
Identifying market trends: what you can (and can’t) learn from the major market indexes.
Hunting for trends? An easy way to start is with the U.S. major market indexes. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), the barometer for the U.S. equity markets, is monitored by investors worldwide. But it’s only 30 stocks—far from diversified. For a better representation of U.S. stocks, you might pick the S&P 500 or Russell 2000.
This Element is an excerpt from Technical Analysis Plain and Simple: Charting the Markets in Your Language (9780137042012), by Michael N. Kahn, CMT. Available in print and digital formats.
Discover the surprising “technical” underpinnings of conventional “fundamental” stock analysis.
Let’s take a close look at fundamental analysis. If a company has raised its dividends consistently each quarter, the stock should rise. If earnings continue to grow, that is good, too. This seemingly fundamental information certainly sounds like a pair of rising trends to a technician. A rising trend in underlying factors usually translates into a rising trend in the stock price.
Each chapter develops statistical techniques within the context of a particular financial application. This exciting new text contains a unique and accessible combination of theory and practice, bringing state-of-the-art statistical techniques to the forefront of financial applications. Each chapter also includes a discussion of recent empirical evidence, for example, the rejection of the Random Walk Hypothesis, as well as problems designed to help readers incorporate what they have read into their own applications.
Arguing that hedge funds have very different risk and return characteristics than traditional investments, Lo constructs new tools for analyzing their dynamics, including measures of illiquidity exposure and performance smoothing, linear and nonlinear risk models that capture alternative betas, econometric models of hedge fund failure rates, and integrated investment processes for alternative investments. In a new chapter, he looks at how the strategies for and regulation of hedge funds have changed in the aftermath of the financial crisis.