An experienced ultrarunner, Kenneth A. Posner is the author of Stalking the Black Swan: Research and Decision Making in a World of Extreme Volatility. He lives in New York City and works as chief of strategic planning and investor relations at Capital Bank Financial Corp.
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Posner's shrewd assessment combines the classic fundamental research approach of Benjamin Graham and David Dodd with more recent developments in cognitive science, computational theory, and quantitative finance. He outlines a probabilistic approach to decision making that involves forecasting across a range of scenarios, and he explains how to balance confidence, react accurately to fast-breaking information, overcome information overload, zero in on the critical issues, penetrate the information asymmetry shielding corporate executives, and integrate the power of human intuition with sophisticated analytics. Emphasizing the computational resources we already have at our disposal& mdash;our computers and our minds& mdash;Posner offers a new track to decision making for analysts, investors, traders, corporate executives, risk managers, regulators, policymakers, journalists, and anyone who faces a world of extreme volatility.