Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis

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Discover recent powerful advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysis

Focusing on modern advances and innovations in the field of decision analysis (DA), Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis presents theories and methods for making, improving, and learning from significant practical decisions. The book explains these new methods and important applications in an accessible and stimulating style for readers from multiple backgrounds, including psychology, economics, statistics, engineering, risk analysis, operations research, and management science.

Highlighting topics not conventionally found in DA textbooks, the book illustrates genuine advances in practical decision science, including developments and trends that depart from, or break with, the standard axiomatic DA paradigm in fundamental and useful ways. The book features methods for coping with realistic decision-making challenges such as online adaptive learning algorithms, innovations in robust decision-making, and the use of a variety of models to explain available data and recommend actions. In addition, the book illustrates how these techniques can be applied to dramatically improve risk management decisions. Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis also includes:

  • An emphasis on new approaches rather than only classical and traditional ideas
  • Discussions of how decision and risk analysis can be applied to improve high-stakes policy and management decisions
  • Coverage of the potential value and realism of decision science within applications in financial, health, safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management
  • Innovative methods for deciding what actions to take when decision problems are not completely known or described or when useful probabilities cannot be specified
  • Recent breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, mathematical foundations and techniques, and integration with learning and pattern recognition methods from computational intelligence

Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis is an ideal reference for researchers, consultants, and practitioners in the fields of decision science, operations research, business, management science, engineering, statistics, and mathematics. The book is also an appropriate guide for managers, analysts, and decision and policy makers in the areas of finance, health and safety, environment, business, engineering, and security risk management.

 

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About the author

Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr. PhD, is Chief Sciences Officer of NextHealth Technologies, a Denver-based health care advanced analytics software company and President of Cox Associates, Inc., a Denver-based applied research company specializing in quantitative health risk assessment, risk analysis, causal modeling, and operations research.  Dr. Cox is also Clinical Professor of Biostatistics and Informatics at the University of Colorado at Denver, a member of the National Academy of Engineering, and Editor-in-Chief of Risk Analysis: An International Journal

 

 

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Additional Information

Publisher
John Wiley & Sons
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Published on
Feb 23, 2015
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Pages
328
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ISBN
9781118938898
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Language
English
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Genres
Business & Economics / Decision-Making & Problem Solving
Business & Economics / General
Business & Economics / Operations Research
Technology & Engineering / Operations Research
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Content Protection
This content is DRM protected.
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Available on Android devices
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Daniel Kahneman
Major New York Times bestseller
Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012
Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011
A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title
One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year
One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011
2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient
Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds

In the international bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions.

Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.

Chip Heath
Why is it so hard to make lasting changes in our companies, in our communities, and in our own lives?

The primary obstacle is a conflict that's built into our brains, say Chip and Dan Heath, authors of the critically acclaimed bestseller Made to Stick. Psychologists have discovered that our minds are ruled by two different systems - the rational mind and the emotional mind - that compete for control. The rational mind wants a great beach body; the emotional mind wants that Oreo cookie. The rational mind wants to change something at work; the emotional mind loves the comfort of the existing routine. This tension can doom a change effort - but if it is overcome, change can come quickly.

In Switch, the Heaths show how everyday people - employees and managers, parents and nurses - have united both minds and, as a result, achieved dramatic results:

- The lowly medical interns who managed to defeat an entrenched, decades-old medical practice that was endangering patients
- The home-organizing guru who developed a simple technique for overcoming the dread of housekeeping 
- The manager who transformed a lackadaisical customer-support team into service zealots by removing a standard tool of customer service 

In a compelling, story-driven narrative, the Heaths bring together decades of counterintuitive research in psychology, sociology, and other fields to shed new light on how we can effect transformative change. Switch shows that successful changes follow a pattern, a pattern you can use to make the changes that matter to you, whether your interest is in changing the world or changing your waistline.
Louis Anthony Cox, Jr.
Discover recent powerful advances in the theory, methods, and applications of decision and risk analysis

Focusing on modern advances and innovations in the field of decision analysis (DA), Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis presents theories and methods for making, improving, and learning from significant practical decisions. The book explains these new methods and important applications in an accessible and stimulating style for readers from multiple backgrounds, including psychology, economics, statistics, engineering, risk analysis, operations research, and management science.

Highlighting topics not conventionally found in DA textbooks, the book illustrates genuine advances in practical decision science, including developments and trends that depart from, or break with, the standard axiomatic DA paradigm in fundamental and useful ways. The book features methods for coping with realistic decision-making challenges such as online adaptive learning algorithms, innovations in robust decision-making, and the use of a variety of models to explain available data and recommend actions. In addition, the book illustrates how these techniques can be applied to dramatically improve risk management decisions. Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis also includes:

An emphasis on new approaches rather than only classical and traditional ideas Discussions of how decision and risk analysis can be applied to improve high-stakes policy and management decisions Coverage of the potential value and realism of decision science within applications in financial, health, safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management Innovative methods for deciding what actions to take when decision problems are not completely known or described or when useful probabilities cannot be specified Recent breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, mathematical foundations and techniques, and integration with learning and pattern recognition methods from computational intelligence

Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis is an ideal reference for researchers, consultants, and practitioners in the fields of decision science, operations research, business, management science, engineering, statistics, and mathematics. The book is also an appropriate guide for managers, analysts, and decision and policy makers in the areas of finance, health and safety, environment, business, engineering, and security risk management.

 

Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Improving Risk Analysis shows how to better assess and manage uncertain risks when the consequences of alternative actions are in doubt. The constructive methods of causal analysis and risk modeling presented in this monograph will enable to better understand uncertain risks and decide how to manage them.

The book is divided into three parts. Parts 1 shows how high-quality risk analysis can improve the clarity and effectiveness of individual, community, and enterprise decisions when the consequences of different choices are uncertain. Part 2 discusses social decisions. Part 3 illustrates these methods and models, showing how to apply them to health effects of particulate air pollution.

"Tony Cox’s new book addresses what risk analysts and policy makers most need to know: How to find out what causes what, and how to quantify the practical differences that changes in risk management practices would make. The constructive methods in Improving Risk Analysis will be invaluable in helping practitioners to deliver more useful insights to inform high-stakes decisions and policy,in areas ranging from disaster planning to counter-terrorism investments to enterprise risk management to air pollution abatement policies. Better risk management is possible and practicable; Improving Risk Analysis explains how."
Elisabeth Pate-Cornell, Stanford University

"Improving Risk Analysis offers crucial advice for moving policy-relevant risk analyses towards more defensible, causally-based methods. Tony Cox draws on his extensive experience to offer sound advice and insights that will be invaluable to both policy makers and analysts in strengthening the foundations for important risk analyses. This much-needed book should be required reading for policy makers and policy analysts confronting uncertain risks and seeking more trustworthy risk analyses."
Seth Guikema, Johns Hopkins University

"Tony Cox has been a trail blazer in quantitative risk analysis, and his new book gives readers the knowledge and tools needed to cut through the complexity and advocacy inherent in risk analysis. Cox’s careful exposition is detailed and thorough, yet accessible to non-technical readers interested in understanding uncertain risks and the outcomes associated with different mitigation actions. Improving Risk Analysis should be required reading for public officials responsible for making policy decisions about how best to protect public health and safety in an uncertain world."
Susan E. Dudley, George Washington University

Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
This book grew out of an effort to salvage a potentially useful idea for greatly simplifying traditional quantitative risk assessments of the human health consequences of using antibiotics in food animals. In 2001, the United States FDA’s Center for Veterinary Medicine (CVM) (FDA-CVM, 2001) published a risk assessment model for potential adverse human health consequences of using a certain class of antibiotics, fluoroquinolones, to treat flocks of chickens with fatal respiratory disease caused by infectious bacteria. CVM’s concern was that fluoroquinolones are also used in human medicine, raising the possibility that fluoroquinolone-resistant strains of bacteria selected by use of fluoroquinolones in chickens might infect humans and then prove resistant to treatment with human medicines in the same class of antibiotics, such as ciprofloxacin. As a foundation for its risk assessment model, CVM proposed a dramatically simple approach that skipped many of the steps in traditional risk assessment. The basic idea was to assume that human health risks were directly proportional to some suitably defined exposure metric. In symbols: Risk = K × Exposure, where “Exposure” would be defined in terms of a metric such as total production of chicken contaminated with fluoroquinolone-resistant bacteria that might cause human illnesses, and “Risk” would describe the expected number of cases per year of human illness due to fluoroquinolone-resistant bacterial infections caused by chicken and treated with fluoroquinolones.
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