Глобальное потепление!
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Kulesi sicelo, ungabuka ngokushesha amavidiyo akamuva afanele ngokufudumala komhlaba emazweni we-G20 ngezilimi ezisemthethweni.
Ukushisa komhlaba jikelele ukukhuphuka kwesikhashana kwamazinga okushisa esistimu yesimo sezulu yoMhlaba ebeseqhubeka isikhathi esingaphezu kwekhulu, isizathu esiyinhloko esenza umsebenzi womuntu (i-anthropogenic factor).
Kusukela ngo-1850, ngesilinganiso seminyaka eyishumi, izinga lokushisa komoya eshumini ngalinye laliphakeme kunanoma ishumi leminyaka edlule. Kusukela ngo-1750-1800, abantu babenomthwalo wokuphakamisa izinga lokushisa lomhlaba wonke ngo-0.8-1.2 ° C. Ubungako obukhulu bokukhuphuka okuthe xaxa kwezinga lokushisa ngaphezu kwekhulu lama-21 kususelwa kumamodeli wesimo sezulu ngu-0.3-1.7 ° C kwisimo esincane sokukhishwa kwomoya obamba ukushisa, 2.6-4.8 ° C ngesimo sokuphuma okuphezulu.
Imiphumela yokushisa komhlaba ibandakanya ukukhuphuka kwamazinga olwandle, izinguquko zesifunda ekuneni kwezulu, ezenzakalweni zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu, njengokushisa nokwanda kogwadule. Njengoba kukhonjisiwe kwiwebhusayithi ye-UN: kunobufakazi obethusayo bokuthi umkhawulo odlulele oholela ekuguqukeni okungenakuphikwa ohlelweni lwezemvelo nohlelo lweplanethi yethu selwenzekile.
Umthelela wezemvelo wokushisa komhlaba ubanzi futhi ufinyelela kude. Kubandakanya imiphumela elandelayo elandelayo:
Ukuncibilika kweqhwa kwe-Arctic, ukukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle, ukubuyela emuva kweqhwa: ukufudumala komhlaba kuholele ekuphepheni nasekunciphiseni kweqhwa olwandle lwe-Arctic. Manje usesimweni esiyingozi futhi usengcupheni yokungalingani kwezulu. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle kusukela ngo-1993 kufinyelele kuma-2,6 mm kuye ku-2.9 mm ngonyaka ± 0.4 mm. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle kuyashesha ngesikhathi sokubuka kusuka ngo-1995 kuya ku-2015. Isimo se-IPCC esinezinga eliphakeme lokukhishwa kwesibhakabhaka sibonisa ukuthi, phakathi nekhulu lama-21, amazinga olwandle angakhuphuka ngesilinganiso esingu-52-98 cm.
Izinhlekelele zemvelo: ukwanda kwamazinga okushisa komhlaba kuzoholela kuzinguquko enanini nasekuhanjisweni kwezulu. Umkhathi uba manzi ngokwengeziwe, imvula eyengeziwe ingena ezindaweni eziphakeme nezisezingeni eliphansi, futhi inciphise ezindaweni ezishisayo nezisendaweni ephansi. Ngenxa yalokhu, izikhukhula, isomiso, izivunguvungu kanye nezinye izehlakalo zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu zinganda kakhulu.
Amagagasi okushisa nezinye izimo zezulu ezingemuva kwesikhashana: imvamisa yemicimbi yesimo sezulu esishisa kakhulu ikhuphuke cishe ngezikhathi ezingama-50 uma kuqhathaniswa namashumi eminyaka ngaphambi kuka-1980.
Yehlisa izinsuku zesimo sezulu “esivumayo”: abacwaningi banquma imingcele yayo ngokushisa kuka-18 ° C - 30 ° C, kwezulu akukho ngaphezulu kwe-1 mm ngosuku nomswakama ophansi, onamazolo amazolo ngaphansi kuka-20 ° C. Ngokwesilinganiso, "isimo sezulu esihle" eMhlabeni sibanjwa izinsuku ezingama-74 ngonyaka, ngenxa yokushisa komhlaba, le nkomba izokwehla.
I-Ocean acidization, i-Ocean deo oxygenation: ukwanda kokugcotshwa kwekhabhoni dayokthoni kuholele ekwandeni kwe-CO2 encibilikisiwe emanzini olwandle futhi, ngenxa yalokho, ukwanda kwe-acidity yolwandle, kulinganiswa ngamanani aphansi we-pH.
Imiphumela yesikhathi eside ibuye ibandakanye ukusabela kokuqhuma komhlaba okubangelwa ukuncibilika kweqhwa nokuqothuka okwalandelayo kwinqubo ebizwa ngokuthi yi-glacioisostasis, lapho izindawo zomhlaba ziyeke khona ukuthola ubunzima beqhwa. Lokhu kungaholela ekugugudeni komhlaba futhi kwandise ukusebenza kokuzamazama komhlaba nentaba-mlilo. Kubangelwa ukufudumala kwamanzi olwandle, ukuncibilika kwe-permafrost ngaphansi kolwandle noma ukukhishwa kwamagesi hydrate, ukushona phansi kwamanzi kungadala ama-tsunamis.
Esinye isibonelo ukuthi kungenzeka wehlise ijubane noma umise ukujikeleza kwamagagasi ahlangana e-Atlantic. Lokhu kungadala ukuphola eNyakatho Atlantic, eYurophu naseNyakatho Melika. Lokhu kuzothinta ikakhulukazi izindawo ezinjengeBritish Isles, France kanye namazwe aseNordic afudunyezwa yiNorth Atlantic yamanje.
Ukushisa komhlaba jikelele ukukhuphuka kwesikhashana kwamazinga okushisa esistimu yesimo sezulu yoMhlaba ebeseqhubeka isikhathi esingaphezu kwekhulu, isizathu esiyinhloko esenza umsebenzi womuntu (i-anthropogenic factor).
Kusukela ngo-1850, ngesilinganiso seminyaka eyishumi, izinga lokushisa komoya eshumini ngalinye laliphakeme kunanoma ishumi leminyaka edlule. Kusukela ngo-1750-1800, abantu babenomthwalo wokuphakamisa izinga lokushisa lomhlaba wonke ngo-0.8-1.2 ° C. Ubungako obukhulu bokukhuphuka okuthe xaxa kwezinga lokushisa ngaphezu kwekhulu lama-21 kususelwa kumamodeli wesimo sezulu ngu-0.3-1.7 ° C kwisimo esincane sokukhishwa kwomoya obamba ukushisa, 2.6-4.8 ° C ngesimo sokuphuma okuphezulu.
Imiphumela yokushisa komhlaba ibandakanya ukukhuphuka kwamazinga olwandle, izinguquko zesifunda ekuneni kwezulu, ezenzakalweni zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu, njengokushisa nokwanda kogwadule. Njengoba kukhonjisiwe kwiwebhusayithi ye-UN: kunobufakazi obethusayo bokuthi umkhawulo odlulele oholela ekuguqukeni okungenakuphikwa ohlelweni lwezemvelo nohlelo lweplanethi yethu selwenzekile.
Umthelela wezemvelo wokushisa komhlaba ubanzi futhi ufinyelela kude. Kubandakanya imiphumela elandelayo elandelayo:
Ukuncibilika kweqhwa kwe-Arctic, ukukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle, ukubuyela emuva kweqhwa: ukufudumala komhlaba kuholele ekuphepheni nasekunciphiseni kweqhwa olwandle lwe-Arctic. Manje usesimweni esiyingozi futhi usengcupheni yokungalingani kwezulu. Kulinganiselwa ukuthi ukukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle kusukela ngo-1993 kufinyelele kuma-2,6 mm kuye ku-2.9 mm ngonyaka ± 0.4 mm. Ngaphezu kwalokho, ukukhuphuka kwezinga lolwandle kuyashesha ngesikhathi sokubuka kusuka ngo-1995 kuya ku-2015. Isimo se-IPCC esinezinga eliphakeme lokukhishwa kwesibhakabhaka sibonisa ukuthi, phakathi nekhulu lama-21, amazinga olwandle angakhuphuka ngesilinganiso esingu-52-98 cm.
Izinhlekelele zemvelo: ukwanda kwamazinga okushisa komhlaba kuzoholela kuzinguquko enanini nasekuhanjisweni kwezulu. Umkhathi uba manzi ngokwengeziwe, imvula eyengeziwe ingena ezindaweni eziphakeme nezisezingeni eliphansi, futhi inciphise ezindaweni ezishisayo nezisendaweni ephansi. Ngenxa yalokhu, izikhukhula, isomiso, izivunguvungu kanye nezinye izehlakalo zesimo sezulu esibi kakhulu zinganda kakhulu.
Amagagasi okushisa nezinye izimo zezulu ezingemuva kwesikhashana: imvamisa yemicimbi yesimo sezulu esishisa kakhulu ikhuphuke cishe ngezikhathi ezingama-50 uma kuqhathaniswa namashumi eminyaka ngaphambi kuka-1980.
Yehlisa izinsuku zesimo sezulu “esivumayo”: abacwaningi banquma imingcele yayo ngokushisa kuka-18 ° C - 30 ° C, kwezulu akukho ngaphezulu kwe-1 mm ngosuku nomswakama ophansi, onamazolo amazolo ngaphansi kuka-20 ° C. Ngokwesilinganiso, "isimo sezulu esihle" eMhlabeni sibanjwa izinsuku ezingama-74 ngonyaka, ngenxa yokushisa komhlaba, le nkomba izokwehla.
I-Ocean acidization, i-Ocean deo oxygenation: ukwanda kokugcotshwa kwekhabhoni dayokthoni kuholele ekwandeni kwe-CO2 encibilikisiwe emanzini olwandle futhi, ngenxa yalokho, ukwanda kwe-acidity yolwandle, kulinganiswa ngamanani aphansi we-pH.
Imiphumela yesikhathi eside ibuye ibandakanye ukusabela kokuqhuma komhlaba okubangelwa ukuncibilika kweqhwa nokuqothuka okwalandelayo kwinqubo ebizwa ngokuthi yi-glacioisostasis, lapho izindawo zomhlaba ziyeke khona ukuthola ubunzima beqhwa. Lokhu kungaholela ekugugudeni komhlaba futhi kwandise ukusebenza kokuzamazama komhlaba nentaba-mlilo. Kubangelwa ukufudumala kwamanzi olwandle, ukuncibilika kwe-permafrost ngaphansi kolwandle noma ukukhishwa kwamagesi hydrate, ukushona phansi kwamanzi kungadala ama-tsunamis.
Esinye isibonelo ukuthi kungenzeka wehlise ijubane noma umise ukujikeleza kwamagagasi ahlangana e-Atlantic. Lokhu kungadala ukuphola eNyakatho Atlantic, eYurophu naseNyakatho Melika. Lokhu kuzothinta ikakhulukazi izindawo ezinjengeBritish Isles, France kanye namazwe aseNordic afudunyezwa yiNorth Atlantic yamanje.
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