Fermi Poker

Daniel Fetz

About this game

How many dentists work in the United States? Hard to know exactly, but everyone can make a more or less informed guess. You answer with a range, not a single number. Then the round plays out like a poker hand: fold if you don't trust your guess, raise if you do, and try to work out whether the confident player across the table actually knows something. The winner is whoever has the narrowest range that still contains the actual answer.

A wide range almost always contains the answer, but a tighter range that also contains it beats you. Go narrow and you beat the whole table... as long as the answer doesn't land outside your range. After a few rounds you notice how often you were completely sure and yet wrong. That is part of the game and makes you understand the limitations of your knowledge.

WAYS TO PLAY
- Live games against real people
- Tournaments and a weekly leaderboard
- AI Arena, solo practice against bots
- Private rooms for friends, with invite links and QR codes
- Voice chat and emotes at the table
- Seasonal events with special question decks

QUESTIONS BY PLAYERS
There is a community library of question sets: movie numbers, geography, football, space, anything countable. See what other people are playing this week, or write your own set and share it.

GETTING BETTER
- A short survey that shows how your sense of "probably" compares to other players
- A prediction book where you write down forecasts and watch your calibration curve build over time
- Stats on whether the things you were 90 percent sure about were actually right 90 percent of the time

FREE TO PLAY
Coins are play money. You earn them by playing and they never cost real money. Gems will only let you buy cosmetics like emotes and avatars. Nothing you can buy makes your guesses better.

Good with friends who like to argue about numbers.