Metaculus

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About this game

📊 **Community Forecasting & Prediction Markets**
Welcome to Metaculus — the United States' leading community forecasting platform where thousands of forecasters predict real-world events together. From AI breakthroughs and scientific discoveries to political elections and economic trends, Metaculus lets you submit probability estimates on questions that matter. Join a community of forecasters, track your accuracy over time, and build a reputation as a trusted predictor.

🔮 **Forecast Real-World Events**
Metaculus hosts thousands of open forecasting questions across multiple categories. Artificial intelligence timelines, climate milestones, Supreme Court decisions, NFL season outcomes, Nobel Prize predictions, tech industry developments — if it's uncertain and important, the Metaculus community is forecasting it. Our aggregated community predictions serve as a reliable sentiment indicator for future events.

💹 **Live Markets & Real-Time Updates**
Submit and update your forecasts as new information emerges. Metaculus delivers real-time probability tracking, community median forecasts, and interactive distribution charts. Adjust your estimates as events unfold, compare your predictions with the community, and watch forecasting accuracy improve with collective wisdom. Set notifications for questions you follow and never miss a resolution.

🏆 **Track Your Accuracy & Build Reputation**
Every resolved forecast contributes to your personal accuracy score. Metaculus tracks your performance with detailed analytics — Brier score, calibration curve, accuracy per category, and leaderboards comparing you with top forecasters across the United States. Earn reputation points, unlock achievement badges, and climb the global forecaster rankings.

📊 **Forecasting Categories for Every Interest**
Science & AI: model releases, capability benchmarks, research milestones
Politics: elections, legislation, geopolitical events
Sports: NFL, NBA, MLB, tournaments, season outcomes
Economics: GDP, inflation, employment, Fed decisions
Climate: temperature records, emissions, weather events
Technology: product launches, company valuations, adoption trends

🔒 **Secure & Community-Driven**
Metaculus is built on transparency and community trust. Your forecasts are stored securely with bank-grade encryption. Two-factor authentication protects your account. Community moderation ensures high-quality questions and fair resolutions. Metaculus is committed to open science and epistemic rigor.

Why choose Metaculus?
• Thousands of open forecasting questions across multiple categories
• Real-time community probability tracking and distribution charts
• Detailed accuracy analytics with Brier score and calibration curves
• Forecaster leaderboards and achievement badges
• Community-moderated questions with transparent resolution criteria
• US-based support team available 7 days a week

Download Metaculus today and start forecasting the future. Every question is an opportunity to test your knowledge, contribute to collective intelligence, and build your reputation as a top forecaster with America's leading prediction community.