For those who slept through Stats 101, this book is a lifesaver. Wheelan strips away the arcane and technical details and focuses on the underlying intuition that drives statistical analysis. He clarifies key concepts such as inference, correlation, and regression analysis, reveals how biased or careless parties can manipulate or misrepresent data, and shows us how brilliant and creative researchers are exploiting the valuable data from natural experiments to tackle thorny questions.
And in Wheelan’s trademark style, there’s not a dull page in sight. You’ll encounter clever Schlitz Beer marketers leveraging basic probability, an International Sausage Festival illuminating the tenets of the central limit theorem, and a head-scratching choice from the famous game show Let’s Make a Deal—and you’ll come away with insights each time. With the wit, accessibility, and sheer fun that turned Naked Economics into a bestseller, Wheelan defies the odds yet again by bringing another essential, formerly unglamorous discipline to life.
“[Taleb is] Wall Street’s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther’s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church.”
–Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker
Finally in paperback, the word-of-mouth sensation that will change the way you think about the markets and the world.This book is about luck: more precisely how we perceive luck in our personal and professional experiences.
Set against the backdrop of the most conspicuous forum in which luck is mistaken for skill–the world of business–Fooled by Randomness is an irreverent, iconoclastic, eye-opening, and endlessly entertaining exploration of one of the least understood forces in all of our lives.
From the Trade Paperback edition.
This textbook provides a comprehensive introduction to forecasting methods and presents enough information about each method for readers to use them sensibly.
Make the Right Choice - Enhance Your Ethical Decision Making Skills Today!
Ethical issues arise in all walks of life, but none have implications as far-reaching and serious as those related to public management. Most people working in the public sector want to do the "right" thing, but the issues can be highly complex or just not lend themselves to easy answers. Practical Ethics in Public Administration, Third Edition, provides the tools, techniques, and methods needed to help meet these challenges. This completely updated third edition provides public sector professionals the information they need to face the ethical issues that arise in the course of a day’s work, address those issues with greater self-assurance, perform their duties in an ethically justifiable manner, and explain their actions reasonably.
This new edition:Covers emerging ethical issues surrounding public-private partnershipsExamines the shift from compliance-based to integrity-based ethics programsExplores the context of moral competency
Contents The Real World • Ethics in the Public Sector/Ethics in the Private Sector • What Is Ethics, Anyway? • Raising the Right Questions: Ethical Approaches to Five Important Cases • The Real World Revisited • Who Am I? Who Do I Want to Be? What Do I Want? • Making Choices • Problems That Might Arise and How to Analyze Them • Developing an Ethical Style: How Would You Analyze Problems That Might Arise? • Addressing Public Ethical Conflict by Means of the Unified Ethic • Leadership Development and Moral Agency in Contemporary Governance • Perspectives on Contemporary Reform: Reinventing Government and the New Public Management • Ethics, Quality, and Performance • Ethical Dilemmas in Hybridization and Outsourcing • The Competent Moral Agent • Wrap-Up and Key Points
Complexity surrounds us. We have too much email, juggle multiple remotes, and hack through thickets of regulations from phone contracts to health plans. But complexity isn’t destiny. Sull and Eisenhardt argue there’s a better way. By developing a few simple yet effective rules, people can best even the most complex problems.
In Simple Rules, Sull and Eisenhardt masterfully challenge how we think about complexity and offer a new lens on how to cope. They take us on a surprising tour of what simple rules are, where they come from, and why they work. The authors illustrate the six kinds o f rules that really matter - for helping artists find creativity and the Federal Reserve set interest rates, for keeping birds on track and Zipcar members organized, and for how insomniacs can sleep and mountain climbers stay safe.
Drawing on rigorous research and riveting stories, the authors ingeniously find insights in unexpected places, from the way Tina Fey codified her experience at Saturday Night Live into rules for producing 30 Rock (rule five: never tell a crazy person he’s crazy) to burglars’ rules for robbery (“avoid houses with a car parked outside”) to Japanese engineers mimicking the rules of slime molds to optimize Tokyo’s rail system. The authors offer fresh information and practical tips on fixing old rules and learning new ones.
Whether you’re struggling with information overload, pursuing opportunities with limited resources, or just trying to change your bad habits, Simple Rules provides powerful insight into how and why simplicity tames complexity.
Summer blockbusters and independent sleepers; masterworks of Alfred Hitchcock, Billy Wilder, and Martin Scorsese; the timeless comedy of the Marx Brothers and Buster Keaton; animated classics from Walt Disney and Pixar; the finest foreign films ever made. This 2015 edition covers the modern era, from 1965 to the present, while including all the great older films you can’t afford to miss—and those you can—from box-office smashes to cult classics to forgotten gems to forgettable bombs, listed alphabetically, and complete with all the essential information you could ask for.
• Nearly 16,000 capsule movie reviews, with 300+ new entries
• More than 25,000 DVD and video listings
• Up-to-date list of mail-order and online sources for buying and renting DVDs and videos
• Official motion picture code ratings from G to NC-17
• Old and new theatrical and video releases rated **** to BOMB
• Exact running times—an invaluable guide for recording and for discovering which movies have been edited
• Reviews of little-known sleepers, foreign films, rarities, and classics
• Leonard’s personal list of Must-See Movies
• Date of release, running time, director, stars, MPAA ratings, color or black and white
• Concise summary, capsule review, and four-star-to-BOMB rating system
• Precise information on films shot in widescreen format
• Symbols for DVDs, videos, and laserdiscs
• Completely updated index of leading actors
This book shows you how to validate your initial idea, find the right customers, decide what to build, how to monetize your business, and how to spread the word. Packed with more than thirty case studies and insights from over a hundred business experts, Lean Analytics provides you with hard-won, real-world information no entrepreneur can afford to go without.Understand Lean Startup, analytics fundamentals, and the data-driven mindsetLook at six sample business models and how they map to new ventures of all sizesFind the One Metric That Matters to youLearn how to draw a line in the sand, so you’ll know it’s time to move forwardApply Lean Analytics principles to large enterprises and established products
In the late 1980s, Japanese scientists were trying to figure out the economic damage that would be caused if a catastrophic earthquake destroyed Tokyo. The answer was bleak, but not for Japan. Kaoru Oda, an economist who worked for Tokai Bank, speculated that the United States would end up paying the most. Why? Japan owned trillions of dollars’ worth of foreign liquid assets and investments. These assets, which the world depended on, would be sold, forcing countries into the precarious position of having to return large amounts of money they might not have. After the recent earthquake, Michael Lewis reexamined this hypothesis and came to a surprising conclusion. With his characteristic sense of humor and wit, Lewis, once again, explains the inner workings of a financial catastrophe.
“How a Tokyo Earthquake Could Devastate Wall Street” appears in Michael Lewis’s book The Money Culture.
Based on an MBA course Provost has taught at New York University over the past ten years, Data Science for Business provides examples of real-world business problems to illustrate these principles. You’ll not only learn how to improve communication between business stakeholders and data scientists, but also how participate intelligently in your company’s data science projects. You’ll also discover how to think data-analytically, and fully appreciate how data science methods can support business decision-making.Understand how data science fits in your organization—and how you can use it for competitive advantageTreat data as a business asset that requires careful investment if you’re to gain real valueApproach business problems data-analytically, using the data-mining process to gather good data in the most appropriate wayLearn general concepts for actually extracting knowledge from dataApply data science principles when interviewing data science job candidates
The only one-volume horoscope you’ll ever need.
Your essential guide to love, life and career success in 2016.
This popular, complete one-volume guide contains all you need to know about your personal horoscope for the year 2014. Be prepared for the forthcoming year with monthly predictions for your own sign and discover how to maximise your opportunities and potential to make the most of 2016.
This best-selling astrological guide contains:
• A personality profile for each sign
• A forecast for the year ahead – what you can expect in terms of wealth, home, health, social and love life
• A month-by-month forecast of your best days and worst days – the ideal days to attract love, money or success, and when it’s better to just stay in bed!
Joseph Polansky is a leading US astrologer who has been practising astrology for over 20 years.
“The leading indicators” shape our lives intimately, but few of us know where these numbers come from, what they mean, or why they rule the world. GDP, inflation, unemployment, trade, and a host of averages determine whether we feel optimistic or pessimistic about the country’s future and our own. They dictate whether businesses hire and invest, or fire and hunker down, whether governments spend trillions or try to reduce debt, whether individuals marry, buy a car, get a mortgage, or look for a job.
Zachary Karabell tackles the history and the limitations of each of our leading indicators. The solution is not to invent new indicators, but to become less dependent on a few simple figures and tap into the data revolution. We have unparalleled power to find the information we need, but only if we let go of the outdated indicators that lead and mislead us.
New to the fourth edition are the topics of common and special causes, outliers, and risk management tools. Besides the new topics, many current topics have been expanded to reflect changes in auditing practices since 2004 and ISO 19011 guidance, and they have been rewritten to promote the common elements of all types of system and process audits.
The handbook can be used by new auditors to gain an understanding of auditing. Experienced auditors will find it to be a useful reference. Audit managers and quality managers can use the handbook as a guide for leading their auditing programs. The handbook may also be used by trainers and educators as source material for teaching the fundamentals of auditing.
Authors Dall W. Forsythe and Donald J. Boyd outline the budgeting process through a series of memos from a budget director to a newly elected governor—a format that helps readers with little or no background understand complicated financial issues. They cover all of the steps of budget preparation, from strategy to execution, explaining technical vocabulary, and discussing key topics including baseline budgeting, revenue forecasting, and gap-closing options.
Forsythe and Boyd bring fresh insights into such issues as the importance of a multiyear strategic budget plan, the impact of the business cycle on state budgets, the tactical problems of getting budgets adopted by legislatures, and, of course, the relationship between governor and budget officer. Memos to the Governor is a painless, practical introduction to budget preparation for students of and practitioners in public administration and public-sector financial management.