Humanity Odds: Extinction Risk

VectorKI

In-app purchases

About this app

Humanity Odds estimates every day how likely it is that humanity will not make it to 2100, and shows why the number moves.

THE INDEX
One global number, updated daily at 06:00 UTC and built from eight scenarios: AI takeover, engineered pandemics, nuclear war, climate collapse, supervolcanoes and asteroid or comet impacts, plus two clearly labeled speculative ones, hostile alien contact and a neuro-pathogen outbreak. For the speculative ones, UFO and UAP disclosures count as signals, not as evidence.

WHY IT MOVED
Every change comes with the stories behind it: source, date, direction and a short neutral summary. No hype: repeated coverage of the same story counts once, news effects fade over time, and daily moves are capped.

WHAT'S INSIDE
• The global index with its 24-hour and 7-day change and a 90-day trend
• A page per scenario with its history, the expert sources of its baseline and the news that moved it
• Threat Feed: short, labeled AI summaries of relevant news, each with a link to the original source, filtered to known outlets
• P(doom) leaderboard: what researchers, lab leaders, officials and public figures have said about AI risk, with sources
• Monthly podcast: two AI voices talk through what the news did to the world's risks, with chapters, transcript and sources
• Radar: what public instruments measure right now, from the asteroid risk list to wastewater and space weather, each with its time, source and link
• Be prepared: the official basics for emergencies (warnings, supplies, emergency numbers) for Germany, the EU, the US and the UK, also offline
• Household plan: your own list from the official advice for your region, with the water your household needs
• Perspective: failed doomsday predictions, what is being done about each risk, and how to read small probabilities
• Home-screen widget, a weekly digest and an optional daily alert that respects quiet hours
• Calm mode: no changes, no animations, no alerts
• English, German and Spanish

HUMANITY ODDS PRO
A one-time purchase, no subscription:
• The weekly Deep Dive: one scenario explained, with sources, also read aloud
• Preparedness guides: a fictional exercise and a sourced checklist per scenario, also offline
• The household plan in full: what you have at home, reminders before supplies expire, a shopping list and a printable emergency plan
• The full Radar: every reading with its history and a plain explanation of the usual range, plus alerts for Yellowstone, asteroids and geomagnetic storms
• Full history of every scenario; compare up to three scenarios and export them as CSV or image
• The complete archive of why the index moved
• Real-time Threat Feed with the full archive, filters and how each item was rated
• Expert timeline: how public estimates changed since 2020, by role
• Alerts per scenario with your chosen sensitivity, and breaking alerts
• Medium and large home-screen widgets
• Share cards without watermark

HOW IT WORKS
Baselines come from published expert forecasts and surveys on extinction risk, AI risk and other global catastrophic risks. Relevant news is classified automatically and moves the scenarios within strict limits. The methodology screen in the app explains every step and names every source. Radar readings appear as their sources publish them; Humanity Odds is not affiliated with these sources.

Humanity Odds is a model-based estimate combining published expert forecasts with automated news analysis. It is not a prediction and not scientific advice. Summaries are AI-generated; the podcast, the Deep Dive and the guides are written by AI and checked by a human before publishing.

No account and no ads. Usage statistics only if you agree.
Publisher: VectorAI Beratung & Vertrieb, Christian Berger, Gera, Germany · humanityodds.com

What’s new

New in 1.0.10:
• Radar: what public instruments measure right now, next to the estimates, each with its time, source and link. With Pro: the history, a plain explanation and alerts.
• Household plan: your own list from the official advice for your region. With Pro: supplies, reminders, a shopping list and a printable plan.
• The app in Spanish.
• The purchase button stays in view.