Atlantic Hurricane Strike Probability Program (STRIKPA)

Jerry D. Jarrell

ม.ค. 1981 · Naval Environmental Prediction Research Facility

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A program to accept Atlantic hurricane forecasts and create estimates of hurricane strike probabilities is described. The probabilities are based on a tri-modal bivariate normal distribution of forecast errors. The relationship of the occurrence of each mode to such predictors as motion components, geographical position and maximum wind is documented. Results of independent testing are reported. It is expected that strike probabilities will be available during the 1981 hurricane season. The format of input and a description of routine and special products are provided. (Author).