Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You

Gerd Gigerenzer

พ.ย. 2015 · Simon and Schuster

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An accessible guide to what statistics really mean, the dangers of misreading them, and how to make smart decisions in an uncertain world.

Benjamin Franklin famously said that nothing is certain but death and taxes. Yet few of us really understand how to measure the uncertainties we face in life—or how to interpret statistical claims. It’s easy to become overwhelmed by the baffling array of percentages and probabilities we encounter every day. But in Calculated Risks, cognitive scientist Gerd Gigerenzer offers a roadmap for the innumerate.

Drawing on real-life examples, Gigerenzer shows how our misunderstanding of numbers can endanger our health and security. He dispels the “illusion of certainty” that accompanies everything from medical screenings to DNA evidence. And he explains how statistics are routinely manipulated or misrepresented—and how to see through the deception.

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Gerd Gigerenzer is director of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development in Berlin, Germany. He has taught at several universities, including the University of Chicago and the University of Virginia, and has been a Fellow at the Center of Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences at Stanford University.