Field Procedures for Verification and Adjustment of Fire Behavior Predictions

Richard C. Rothermel

Jan 1983 · U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station

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The problem of verifying predictions of fire behavior, primarily rate of spread, is discussed in terms of the fire situation for which predictions are made, and the type of fire where data are to be collected. Procedures for collecting data and performing analysis are presented for both readily accessible fires where data should be complete, and for inaccessible fires where data are likely to be incomplete. The material is prepared for use by field units, with no requirements for special equipment or computers. Procedures for selecting the most representative fuel model, for overall evaluation of prediction capability, and for developing calibration coefficients to improve future predictions are presented. Illustrated examples from several fires are included. The material is a companion publication to the fire prediction manual titled, 'INT-GTR-143: How to predict the spread and intensity of forest and range fire' by R. C. Rothermel.