Improving effective use of seasonal forecasts in South Africa

Vincent, Katharine · Cull, Tracy · van Garderen, Emma Archer · Conway, Declan · Dalin, Carole · Deryng, Delphine · Dorling, Steve · Fallon, Amy · Landman, Willem

Mei 2016 · Intl Food Policy Res Inst

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The study showed that El Niño no longer strikes the same fear as it used to, even in the agricultural sector where the negative impacts of the 1997-98 and 1982-83 events are within living memory. The widespread drought associated with the El Niño event of 2015/16 (subsequent to this study) may, however, reverse this trend and promote greater interest in the role of ENSOs in seasonal forecasts. There is little demand for El Niño-specific forecasts outside of agricultural research. However there is evidence for the use of seasonal forecasts in the agriculture, water and disaster preparedness and response sectors in South Africa.