Investing in dates, poultry, olive, and medicinal and aromatic plants value chains in Egypt: Assessing the economy-wide impacts

El-Kersh, Mohamed · Atef, Mohamed · Ali, Alaa · Farghaly, Lobna · Abderabuh, Zainab · Abdelradi, Fadi · Abdou, Khaled · Abdelaziz, Ehab · Faris, Victor · Nasr, Saleh · Nassar, Yasmin · Nassar, Zaki · Raouf, Mariam · Wiebelt, Manfred

helmi 2022 · MENA Policy Note Kirja 19 · Intl Food Policy Res Inst

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This policy note summarizes an evaluation of public investment options for Egypt’s agri-food system conducted by the International Food Policy Research Institute in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation of the Government of Egypt and Cairo University. We quantitatively assess the expected economy-wide impacts of investing in four promising agricultural value-chains: dates, poultry, olives, and medicinal and aromatic plants (MAP). As part of the analysis, a range of agriculture-related public investments along the value-chains are considered, including spending to expand farm production and promotion of downstream agri-processing and marketing.

We use two IFPRI structural models. The Rural Investment and Policy Analysis (RIAPA) economywide model is used to capture linkages between economic sectors, households, and rural-urban economies and to measure changes in economic growth, household welfare, and employment within and beyond the agri-food system. RIAPA is linked to the Agricultural Investment and Data Analysis (AIDA), the second model, which tracks investment impacts and costs over time. Inter alia, we find that:

Investments into each of the four agricultural value chains enhance growth, create additional employment opportunities, improve household welfare, and reduce poverty.

The MAP and poultry value chains are the most promising value chains with regard to all four evaluation criteria. However growth generation is largest if investment is concentrated in the MAP value chain, while investment into the poultry value chain has the strongest impacts on job creation and poverty reduction.

Investments into primary production and processing, besides having a strong direct impact on the value chain growth, generate significant indirect effects inside and outside the agrifood system. These indirect effects are largest for the MAP value chain.