Primary Commodity Prices and Macroeconomic Variables: A Long-run Relationship, Issue 314

Theodosios B. Palaskas · Panayotis N. Varangis

jan. 1989 · PPR Working Paper Series Bok 314 · World Bank Publications

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There is a long- run quantifiable relationship between real interest rates and real commodity prices, but not between real commodity prices and either consumer prices or the money supply. Commodity prices in nominal terms strongly affect consumer prices but not the reverse -- and some groups of commodity prices can be reliable indicators of movements in consumer prices. Changes in the money supply affect commodity prices -- but not the reverse, and the relationship is not quantifiable.