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The previous version of the report in Turkish was published in May and introduced to a wide range of audience, from media organs to diplomats, through a conference held in USAK seminar hall. This latter version in English aims to open a new window towards the issues at glance for international researchers as well, by enabling the reader to bypass popular qualitative speculations and have a more clear vision of the quantitative aspect of Turkey’s power projection capabilities in the Middle Eastern theatre through a tri-color prism of diplomacy, economics and soft power.
The arguments about whether Turkey is a role model in the Middle East or has attained the level of an “order establishing actor” are frequently voiced in print and visual media, but no systematic empirical analysis of these claims seems to have been carried out. This study sets out to fill this gap. Turkey’s capacity as a regional power is examined empirically, with special emphasis placed on the structural components of Turkey’s growing regional influence, and on the basis of data regarding its diplomatic, economic, and soft power components. This study concludes that Turkey is a country suffering from an “expectations-capabilities gap” in the Middle East, and that until the deficiencies identified in the study are remedied, Turkey will be unable to become a regional leader.
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Osman Bahadır Dinçer is a Turkish researcher studying on Middle East and Political Science with particular reference to social and political movements, political development and democratization in the Middle East.
Mustafa Kutlay is a research fellow concentrating on international political economy, European and Turkish political economy, Turkey-EU relations, Greece and Cyprus question.
