You think you're right 80% of the time. You're probably not. Quorwick Verdict finds out.
Before a decision plays out, write it down: what you chose, what you expect to happen, and how sure you are. Pick a review date. Then leave it alone.
When the date arrives, the call moves to Due. You answer two questions, separately:
– Did the expectation come true? Yes, partly, or no.
– Was the reasoning any good, ignoring the result? One to five.
That split is the whole point. A sound call can lose to bad luck. A sloppy call can get lucky. Blur the two and you learn the wrong lesson every time.
What's inside
– Open: every sealed call, waiting for its review date
– Due: calls ready to grade, with the original expectation right above the answer box
– Scorecard: hit rate, Brier score, a calibration chart by confidence band, and a luck-or-judgement grid
– Maxims: the rules you keep relearning, kept where you'll actually read them
– Push a review back a week when it comes too early
What's not inside
Streaks. Daily nags to journal. Motivational quotes. A cloud account.
The calibration chart doesn't soften anything. If your 90% calls come true 60% of the time, the bar sits at 60 and the tick sits at 90.
It ships with a handful of example calls and maxims so the scorecard isn't blank on day one. Long-press any card to delete it.
Your journal sits in a local database on this phone. There is nothing else to set up.
Log a decision with how sure you are. Grade it later. See if your gut is honest.