Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation: How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030
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The same Silicon Valley ecosystem that created bit-based technologies that have disrupted atom-based industries is now creating bit- and electron-based technologies that will disrupt atom-based energy industries.
Clean Disruption projections (based on technology cost curves, business model innovation as well as product innovation) show that by 2030:
- All new energy will be provided by solar or wind.
- All new mass-market vehicles will be electric.
- All of these vehicles will be autonomous (self-driving) or semi-autonomous.
- The new car market will shrink by 80%.
- Even assuming that EVs don't kill the gasoline car by 2030, the self-driving car will shrink the new car market by 80%.
- Gasoline will be obsolete. Nuclear is already obsolete.
- Up to 80% of highways will be redundant.
- Up to 80% of parking spaces will be redundant.
- The concept of individual car ownership will be obsolete.
- The Car Insurance industry will be disrupted.
The Stone Age did not end because we ran out of rocks. It ended because a disruptive technology ushered in the Bronze Age. The era of centralized, command-and-control, extraction-resource-based energy sources (oil, gas, coal and nuclear) will not end because we run out of petroleum, natural gas, coal, or uranium. It will end because these energy sources, the business models they employ, and the products that sustain them will be disrupted by superior technologies, product architectures, and business models.
This is a technology-based disruption reminiscent of how the cell phone, Internet, and personal computer swept away industries such as landline telephony, publishing, and mainframe computers. Just like those technology disruptions flipped the architecture of information and brought abundant, cheap and participatory information, the clean disruption will flip the architecture of energy and bring abundant, cheap and participatory energy.
Just like those previous technology disruptions, the Clean Disruption is inevitable and it will be swift.
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作者简介
Tony Seba is a lecturer in entrepreneurship, disruption, and clean energy at Stanford University. He is the author of “Clean Disruption of Energy and Transportation - How Silicon Valley Will Make Oil, Nuclear, Natural Gas, Coal, Electric Utilities and Conventional Cars Obsolete by 2030”.
At Stanford, he has created and taught the following courses: “Anticipating and Leading Market Disruption”, “Clean Energy and Transportation- Market and Investment Opportunities”, “Strategic Marketing of High Tech Products and Innovations”, “Finance for Entrepreneurs”, and “Business and Revenue Model Innovation.” He has also taught at top business schools such as the Auckland University Business School, Singularity University, and at some of the world’s top high tech companies such as Google, Inc.
Tony Seba brings 20+ years of operating and strategy experience in disruptive high tech and clean tech companies. A serial Silicon Valley entrepreneur, Seba was an early employee at Internet leaders Cisco Systems and RSA Data Security, and the award-winning founder and CEO of PrintNation.com, a company that disrupted the $100 billion commercial printing industry.
He has advised in the development of more than 400 MW of solar and wind power worldwide and advised policy-makers and investors on the future of technology, energy, and transportation.
Mr. Seba is a world-renowned thought leader and speaker on the future of energy and transportation, exponential market disruption, and clean entrepreneurship. He has been a keynote speaker at Google, the League of California Cities, the Inter-American Development Bank, and the Institute for The Future, among others. His previous books include “Solar Trillions”, and “Winners Take All”.
Mr Seba has been featured in Business Week, Investors Business Daily, Forbes, Fast Company, Success and TV Chosun, and other media. He is on several boards of directors and advisors, including solar accelerator SFunCube, mobile health and safety technology startup CloudM, and children technology and entrepreneurship education non-profit Hackidemia.
Tony Seba holds an M.B.A. from Stanford University Graduate School of Business and a B.S. in Computer Science and Engineering from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
